[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

EDIT: The oddity is that, theoretically, this shouldn't be a particularly difficult task for a trained sniper of the type you could find in the closeted Idaho/Michigan Disturbed Members Club . . . . most of these attempts on Presidents seem to be handguns at close range, not a particularly smart way to go.

My guess is that sniping would be pretty close to the most difficult way of killing a US president these days. Simply put, there's always a limited number of spots where you could theoretically take that shot, and secret service is not in any shortage of people who know where those spots would be.

It's like the prior theoretical argument of why people don't strap explosives on themselves and blow up a C-Train in Calgary? What prevents people from doing that if they were really determined? Not much. But it never happens.

Explosives are actually rather hard to obtain in significant amounts without attracting attention, and selfmade explosives are notoriously difficult to control. Unlike popular fiction tends to portrait, lunatics are also generally speaking not highly intelligent (nor speak with a foreign accent), but often borderline ######s.

Intelligent people with strong convictions usually find some more constructive way to get their word out, and they also tend to understand that assassinating any one person doesn't really affect much in a democratic society.

We can probably conclude that up to this point, smart and motivated people - as opposed to the klutz's before them - who might want to take out a President perhaps don't exist.

Want to? Oh I'm sure there's plenty of people in shooting ranges around the country who fantasize about it daily. But really, what would killing for example Bush have achieved? Just a change in figurehead. Western democracies are run by groups of people, with large amounts of supporters. Only in very special cases would killing a single government representative make any significant difference. Pretty much anyone will realize that, should they seriously start thinking about it.

Will they exist in the case of Obama?

Is he a special case, enough so that murdering him might actually affect something? I think he might be. Most people agree that he seems to be something else in the political scene, but there's really very little about his political stands that are in any way new or radical, so I think we have to say that it's his personality, by definition unique, that really stands out. It's entirely possible that even after his hypothetical presidency, it will be a very long time before another coloured candidate will appear with even a shot at presidency. You have to remember how few people actually are ever considered top runners for presidency. Also, most Americans are white, and people are inclined to vote for those they most easily identify with.

Of course, it's wholly another question whether there actually exists a group of people smart and resourceful enough to pull it off, but stupid enough to think that race really matters that much. Somehow I doubt that. That would really only leave the small but existing chance that there happens to be a fanatical racist in the right branch of Secret Service.

(Personally I hope he wins by the way. Not because I think it matters, although I think there's a chance it might, but because I would just so much like to see his style of campaigning to win. Hope and unity instead of hate and fear.)