Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowperson
His lack of charisma is his charisma.
Seriously.
Crotchety old fart/curmudgeon has a certain attraction for voters at certain moments.
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Good post, Cow.
Here's where I disagree, though. For a radio host or a television District Attorney, people might find "crotchety" appealing. For a presidential candidate, people like sunny optimism.
In all honesty, I don't think McCain is a very strong candidate for the GOP. He's lost his "maverick" status with excessive pandering to the extreme right, and if as you suggest his fortunes depend on Americans NOT having "Iraq fatigue" next November, then he may well be in big trouble.
One common fallacy is that because elections come down to "swing states" that candidates who do well among independents are guaranteed to win. In fact, George Bush did quite poorly among independents. What he did was energize his base. The Democrats' base is energized right now--the GOP base is divided, a problem that won't be helped by the candidacy of McCain, who enjoys little support from the extreme right, and whose support among independents will erode if he continues to pander to the base.
McCain's opportunity was in 2000--and he lost. American politics is not exactly the land of second chances. He'll lose the general election for the same reason Bob Dole did--because a moderate republican can't compete for liberals with a moderate Democrat, and he'll fail to energize the GOP base in crucial swing states.
Will he win in the South? Sure. But he'll lose Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and California. It all adds up to bad news for the GOP, which is why the GOP establishment is starting to line up their punditry against McCain's candidacy. They don't have good choices right now--but they understand that McCain is a bad choice. They'd be better off with Huckabee--honestly. He's at least likeable.