Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheese
Well my friend Id bet ya an even $10 on that offer. ...
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Okay so 50 is being rather hyperbolic, but I can assure you that the right will have to really splinter before the Liberals are ever elected in Alberta. I'm not stating that as an anti-Liberal either. I'm stating that as a life-time third generation Albertan and I assure you that the changing urban political demographics haven't resulted in a Liberalization of the province. On the contrary, it seems that when residents from other provinces move here they invariably wind up either being or becoming right wing voters. I'm not sure if that's because newcomers to Alberta tend to be right leaning to begin with, or whether they become assimilated by the "Borg" after they arrive. Whichever, in my 30 years of voting in Alberta I haven't seen a Liberalization of the electorate here due to urbanization or an influx of Liberal voters from other provinces ... and there's been three booms and accompanying population bursts during that time.
On the other hand, if you're wagering that the Liberals will be elected to a majority in Alberta before the Greens ever will, I'll take that bet. I'll even give you 2 to 1 odds. Albertans are greener than people realize. Also, check the popular vote statistics from the last two or three federal elections. I think you'll be surprised to see which province has produced the highest percentage of the popular vote for the Green Party. I know it was Alberta in the second last election ... and I think Alberta was either highest or second highest in the last election. So I can definitely see the Greens getting elected in Alberta sooner than the Liberals ... they have more growth potential. Although I don't seriously expect either the Greens or the Lib's will ever actually get elected in Alberta.
The exception to this might be if the Liberals could find a strong leader, as you've mentioned. I don't think Bronconnier is that guy though. He's been a good mayor because he fights hard for Calgary, something I always thought Duer didn't do enough of. Outside of Calgary he's seen as a bit of a whining sniveler though and I doubt he has what it takes to unite and excite either the Liberal party or the electorate. Also, strong leaders in the past haven't been enough to get the job done. Nick Taylor was a pretty darn good leader for the Liberals, and so was Lawrence Decor, but neither of them got the job done. Going way back, Grant Notley was probably the finest politician Alberta has ever produced, but that wasn't enough to make a difference for the NDP. Sure, times change, but I haven't seen any evidence that changing times have produced a left leaning electorate in Alberta as you hypothesize. Until I see poll numbers to support such a shift, I will remain skeptical.
(FWIW, I'm a Green supporter).