Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames in 07
Central locations probably have leveled off, may pick up a bit in the spring, but I'm not sure we'll see much change in values up or down.
The suburbs however I think are in for a decent decline. It may level off early in the year for a few months, but then slide again through the 2nd half of 08.
I disagree that there is ample land to build on ... or at least desireable land to build on. Calgary is spraled out much more that it should be. The new focus by the city will be TOD's and beltline development.
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I agree, suburban condo's especially are in for a decline (actually have already declined). Developers HAVE to build them to gain density for the rest of their communities but each development is basically the exact same crappy suburban-type style far from any important services and so it makes them a dime-a-dozen over the long term compared to downtown area condos. Condos near current future LRT stops (or TOD's as you mention) might be the only exception...
As for land, there is TONS of land in Calgary compared to Manhatten, Vancouver, San Fran, etc! You could fit another few million people in and around the core alone if you wanted to! With no water/ocean area taking up prime areas around the city the city needs to sprawl far FAR less (as measured as average distance from the core) than other cities to accomodate the same numbers of people. I am not saying that sprawl is IDEAL (I HATE it), i am just saying compared to those other cities (whose pricing is not that far out of reach) we have a healthy surplus of options and no physical barriers to that type of growth.
Inversely, anti-sprawl intiatives have the very real effect of inflating land prices and eroding affordability. So if you assume that Calgary is going to stop sprawling (how likely is that?!) then you can bet that housing prices are quite sustainable at current levels (and up). If you assume Calgary (and area) will continue to sprawl then prices are far from sustainable as we have hundreds of years worth of land available (as sad as that is for future generations) and thus no residual land value once you get a medium distance form the core.
Claeren.