Quote:
Originally Posted by KAI
I understand the canadian electoral system but there is no way that the additional 5 % could come fro Calgary. The city is already a strong conservative area and the population is not large enough to sway a national poll by 5%.
Based on past experiences 40 % in the polls will get you a majority in governemnt. It is not perfect but the assumption can be made.
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My point is not that the five percent came from Calgary...I'm saying that if you gain in ridings that you already win then its a moot point. You could easily gain 5pts nationally and not win another riding.
I understand that 40% is enough to form a majority...but winning 38% while your opponent has 36% is also enough to be the official opposition depending on the distribution of the votes.
Anyway...I'm not saying that the Conservatives can't form a majority...just pointing out the flaws with the polling.