Quote:
Originally Posted by MarchHare
All the polls I've seen recently point to yet another (Conservative) minority government if an election were called today. Unless Harper really thinks he can pick up 10% or more popular support in the election campaign, a Fall election does the CPC no good. As terrible a leader as Dion is, the majority of the Canadian population have political views that are moderately left-of-center; look no further than McGuinty's huge election win in Ontario with religious school funding being the defining issue of that campaign. If Harper wants a majority, he'll have to move far enough to the middle to appeal to voters in all regions and in the process sell out the ideals of the Western conservatives who provide the base of his support.
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While I don't think it's realistic, I suspect that's exactly what he thinks he can do. A debate pitting Harper against Dion would be, in English at least, a slaughter. Until now, they've played out their positions through the media...if it comes down to a face-to-face event, we'll see the gloves come off.
Your assertion about Canadians' left-of-centre views may or may not be correct, depending on where you define the "centre" to be. Almost by definition, the "centre" in Canada has come to be wherever the Liberals are found. Of late, though, it seems to me that all of the parties have shifted to the left a little bit. Did the "centre" stay where it was, or does it continue to be defined as wherever the Liberals are?
My point, and I do have one, is that I don't believe the next election will be a battle of "left vs. right" because the two largest parties are so firmly entrenched in the mushy middle ground that it'll come down to other things that firmly differentiate them. Leadership is one of these. As a potential PM, Harper still polls well ahead of the others. Advertising and rhetoric are another two factors that will differentiate them. Will the Liberals trot out the "Scary Harper Hidden Agenda" tactics again? Will the Cons attempt to run on their record of the last 20 months (which hasn't really impressed me) or will they go negative?
It's all about the campaign this time.