Baseball theory

[nfotiu]

Is anyone familiar with this 2001 article?:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

My friend and I were discussing this theory as we were watching some games this year. Basically saying that a pitcher has no control over whether balls in plays are hits. It is a hard thing to accept because it basically tells you that all the baseball announcers are full of it, when they think a pitcher got someone to flyout or that their to blaim for a base hit. I've been watching this years playoffs with this in my head, and it really seems to hold true. The better a pitcher does at preventing HRs, striking guys out and avoiding walks, the better he does. It seems if a guy gets tagged for a few base hits and give up a couple runs one inning, he'll get through a few scoreless to average things out. If a guy is walking guys all the time, giving up the long ball and not striking guys out, he isn't going to last long. Interesting theory for sure, really changes how you evaluate a pitcher's performance.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally posted by nfotiu@Oct 21 2004, 10:40 AM
Is anyone familiar with this 2001 article?:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

My friend and I were discussing this theory as we were watching some games this year. Basically saying that a pitcher has no control over whether balls in plays are hits. It is a hard thing to accept because it basically tells you that all the baseball announcers are full of it, when they think a pitcher got someone to flyout or that their to blaim for a base hit. I've been watching this years playoffs with this in my head, and it really seems to hold true. The better a pitcher does at preventing HRs, striking guys out and avoiding walks, the better he does. It seems if a guy gets tagged for a few base hits and give up a couple runs one inning, he'll get through a few scoreless to average things out. If a guy is walking guys all the time, giving up the long ball and not striking guys out, he isn't going to last long. Interesting theory for sure, really changes how you evaluate a pitcher's performance.
Pitchers that can put late movement on their pitches will generate more ground and fly balls that pitchers that don't. Batters will be able to hit the balls from the pitchers that can't do that more squarely, resulting in more base hits.

Thats my theory at least.

[Sylvanfan]

Well how often does a pitcher throw a no-hitter or perfect game and get more than 10 strikeouts or more? When a pitcher is striking a lot of guys out, I think it's an indication that he's throwing the ball hard and most hitters can't keep up with it. When a guy is throwing a no-hitter he's tricked the batters into thinking they're hitting good pitches, but like Jiggy says they're not hitting anything square and his defence is making the plays. Lets face it, if ground balls are not absolutely pounded, the defence usually makes the play and gets the out. Also if the pitcher is throwing strikes consistantly and working at a good pace the defence stays sharper mentally, and makes more plays into outs. If a pitcher is walking lot's of guys and working slower I think the defence behind him loses focus (including the catcher) and they either don't make the plays or call for the wrong pitch. Last night Derek Lowe was in the groove and getting the Yankees to hit most pitches on the ground. The defence made every play. Greg Maddux has lived like this for years.

[albertGQ]

And Randy Johnson has been overpowering hitters for years as well

[nfotiu]

I think the author would argue that a no-hitter without many strikeouts is basically a fluke. The pitcher obviously does his job by not allowing any hr's. But statistically every 3rd or 4th ball in play should be a hit, and he just bucked the odds for a game. That is why it happens so seldom. It is very unlikely to avoid rolling a 6 or 8 for 27 straight tosses of a pair of dice, but you try it 2430 times a year, it will happen.

Maddux hasn't consistently kept his hits/balls in play ratio any lower than anyone else. What he has done is keep home runs low and his k/bb very high. 3 k's/1 BB and no hr's is why lowe was successful last night combined with a solid defence. Statistically he got away with a bit, and should have probably given up 4 hits or so and with that maybe an extra run or two, which would have still been a good start. The Yankees hitters are more to blame for not getting those 4 hits.

[nfotiu]

Originally posted by albertGQ@Oct 21 2004, 05:35 PM
And Randy Johnson has been overpowering hitters for years as well
Again high k/bb ratio and low hr's. Look at how his era ballooned in years he gave up a bunch of walks. His hits-hr/balls in play is no different than anyone elses.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally posted by albertGQ@Oct 21 2004, 05:35 PM
And Randy Johnson has been overpowering hitters for years as well
Randy Johnson is only effective when his control is working. If he doesn't have command of his slider guys can hit his fastball. If his slider is working than he dominates hitters because he keeps them off balance. Same holds true for any starting pitcher who's a hard thrower, if they don't have a second pitch beside the fastball going they won't get outs. Even if they have good stuff and don't give up many hits the walks generally do show up on the scoreboard and the result is a loss. Often in these games the players behind the pitcher fail to give him the support he needs in the field, or at the plate. There's been several occasions where a guy like Johnson has posted a line like 7IP 3H 3R 5BB 12K and ended up losing the game 3-2.

[Resolute 14]

Most ballplayers can hit a fastball if they know it is coming. 90MPH, 100MPH, doesnt matter. A pitcher needs to have good control, and to be deceptive to succeed.

I like the concept of DIPS (defense independant pitching stats), but it isnt perfect. It often makes a lot of sense. ie: Derek Jeter. An average at best fielder with brutal range. A lot of hits that the Yankees give up through the shortstop area would instead be outs if the Yankees played Arod at short, as he has an above average arm, and above average range. Same with the Jays at third base. Better fielders make pitchers look better.

[troutman]

The Physics of baseball pitching:

http://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/329/...res/node69.html (http://farside.ph.utexas.edu/teaching/329/lectures/node69.html)

As is well-known to baseball fans, there are a surprising variety of different pitches. ``Sliders'' deviate sideways through the air. ``Curveballs'' deviate sideways, but also dip unusually rapidly. Conversely, ``fastballs'' dip unusually slowly. Finally, the mysterious ``knuckleball'' can weave from side to side as it moves towards the hitter. How is all this bizarre behaviour possible? Let us investigate.