The stretch run (Western Conference)

[Robbob]

Might as well get into the race. 15 games remaining for the Flames. If they can stay in one of the three Pacific slots than the Canucks and Coyotes are in the mix. If they fall out then they are looking at a 5 horse race for the two spots.

Flames have 11 home game and 4 road games. 3 of the road games are on the NY trip (which also includes the only back to back game remaining on the schedule) and then a quick trip to Van for the final road game near the end of March. I think they control their own destiny with 2 games vs Vegas (both at home), 2 games vs Winnipeg (both at home), games vs Edmonton, Arizona, and Vancouver.

This is going to be a fun March!

https://i.imgur.com/7Ghvqqr.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1234361983874555905

[IamNotKenKing]

Might as well get into the race. 15 games remaining for the Flames. If they can stay in one of the three Pacific slots than the Canucks and Coyotes are in the mix. If they fall out then they are looking at a 5 horse race for the two spots.

Flames have 11 home game and 4 road games. 3 of the road games are on the NY trip (which also includes the only back to back game remaining on the schedule) and then a quick trip to Van for the final road game near the end of March. I think they control their own destiny with 2 games vs Vegas (both at home), 2 games vs Winnipeg (both at home), games vs Edmonton, Arizona, and Vancouver.

This is going to be a fun March!

https://i.imgur.com/7Ghvqqr.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1234361983874555905

Thanks for this. It will be fun indeed! 7/10 on this trip was HUGE!

They 100% control their own destiny with 15 games left. Win and they're in...

[Table 5]

Too bad there aren't more road games.

[Vinny01]

Good thread topic as we enter the final full month of the season.

It does feel like the Flames game is rounding into form. I am getting very optimistic that we will see their best hockey down the stretch.

[VilleN]

We really are lucky to be where we are at currently. Our RW are the lowest of WC Playoff teams (and lower than the next 3) with more GP than most teams. The only PO team with a negative goal differential... With all that said, I like the way we've been playing lately and hopefully we can keep that consistency heading into the playoffs.

[Robbob]

I just noticed that Vegas has a Home/Road split of 5H/10R. That should makes the Pacific a little more interesting.

[PeteMoss]

Flames have been better on the road so its a moot point, but very odd how many extra road games they've played so far.

Edmonton and Nashville will catch up in games played in the next two days.

EDIT: Nashville will still have a game in hand even after playing back to back these next two days.

[tvp2003]

According to the Athletic, the current statistical projections show 90 points to be the cut-off for a Wild Card spot, 93 to finish top 3 in the division.

We currently have 75 points with 15 games left. That means 9 wins in those 15 games gets us to 93, or a 0.600 points percentage. Let's do it.

[Erick Estrada]

Flames and Canucks look to have similar difficulty on their remaining schedule but the Oilers looks more difficult than both as they have two difficult back to backs starting tonight.

[Zulu29]

Every game is huge here on out, it’s kind of exciting to be playing for a spot rather than having one basically sewn up like last year.

[Elkyiv]

What is the reason for the odd number of games played vs. Edmonton? Is that new to this season?

[bax]

What is the reason for the odd number of games played vs. Edmonton? Is that new to this season?



I think each year you play everyone in your division 4 times except one team you go 5 times which changes year over year. This year we got Edmonton.

[Brodie66]

Are there no away games vs. the Jets this season?

[HitterD]

Are there no away games vs. the Jets this season?

Heritage Classic was the away game

[Bingo]

Flames and Canucks look to have similar difficulty on their remaining schedule but the Oilers looks more difficult than both as they have two difficult back to backs starting tonight.

Oilers 10th toughest schedule

Preds 6th
Jets 7th
Canucks 12th
Wild 16th
Coyotes 19th
Calgary 23rd
Vegas 26th

[Two Fivenagame]

Need that home record to improve.

Rittich hasn't won at home since mid December.

Start Talbot?

[tvp2003]

Oilers 10th toughest schedule

Preds 6th
Jets 7th
Canucks 12th
Wild 16th
Coyotes 19th
Calgary 23rd
Vegas 26th

Curious, is that based purely on opponents winning/points percentage? Or does it take into account home versus away (and the fact that our home record is average at best)?

I recall our strength of schedule was actually pretty tough before the road trip -- obviously with games at Boston and Tampa -- so nice to see things evening out...

[Weitz]

Curious, is that based purely on opponents winning/points percentage? Or does it take into account home versus away (and the fact that our home record is average at best)?

I recall our strength of schedule was actually pretty tough before the road trip -- obviously with games at Boston and Tampa -- so nice to see things evening out...

Based on current league ranking of the opponent.

[Tron_fdc]

From the start of 2018-19 and through Dec. 13 of this season, Calgary had compiled the third-best record on home ice, behind only the Boston Bruins at TD Garden and the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.

1. Boston | 59 gm, 41-10-8, 90 pts, .763 PT%
2. Tampa Bay | 59 gm, 40-13-3, 86 pts, .741 PT%
3. Calgary | 56 gm, 36-13-7, 79 pts, .705 PT%
4. NY Islanders | 56 gm, 36-15-5, 77 pts, .688 PT%
5. Washington | 57 gm, 33-14-10, 76 pts, .667 PT%

https://theathletic.com/1645977/2020/03/02/5-reasons-why-calgary-can-turn-their-home-ice-disadvantage-back-to-an-advantage/

The article also notes that since Dec 13, we are the worst in the NHL at home. I can't see that happening over the next 11 home games......and if it does we likely see some big changes in the off season.

[Robo]

I would feel better if they had 11 road games and 4 home games

[The Cobra]

I would feel better if they had 11 road games and 4 home games

I sure wouldn't.

I don't put much stock in small sample size fluctuations.

The fact of the matter is, teams win more often at home than on the road. Any exception to that is simply random variance.

[CroFlames]

A little off topic, but is Detroit the worst team ever in the salary cap era?

[Roof-Daddy]

A little off topic, but is Detroit the worst team ever in the salary cap era?

I looked at the standings last night and wondered this as well. -120 goal differential and 35 points. They are so so bad.

[Monahammer]

A little off topic, but is Detroit the worst team ever in the salary cap era?

Worst single season team, I think without a doubt at this point. Hot garbage.

There is only one worst club in the salary cap era though, right up north!

[Matata]

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi


Flames most likely to play Edmonton or Colorado in playoffs. There's even an actual chance 2 western canadian teams make it to the second round.

[Textcritic]

I sure wouldn't.

I don't put much stock in small sample size fluctuations.

The fact of the matter is, teams win more often at home than on the road. Any exception to that is simply random variance.
Yes, exactly.

I said it in another thread, but I much prefer that the wide variance in the home v. road record bends the way it does, and not the opposite direction. I am much more confident in the Flames's ability to improve their home-ice play than I would be if they were faced with correcting a bad road record.

On the other side of this is a team like Vegas: they have 10 of their remaining 15 games left on the road, where they are essentially a 0.500 team. In those situations, I will take the home-team odds every time.

[Otto-matic]

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi


Flames most likely to play Edmonton or Colorado in playoffs. There's even an actual chance 2 western canadian teams make it to the second round.

I'd rather play Edmonton then Colorado. I think playing Colorado in the 1st round would be worst case scenario for this team.

[bubbsy]

Need that home record to improve.

Rittich hasn't won at home since mid December.

Start Talbot?

Absolutely! Rittich has done himself little favour in the past 2 months to earn himself the outright "Starter" role.

I feel Talbot has been much more consistent in that timeframe. Given the criticality of every game now, they gotta treat each game as a playoff game, and hence, need to start the lineup with the highest probability for Ws. At this point, that's gotta be Talbot in my opinion.

[Erick Estrada]

I'd rather play Edmonton then Colorado. I think playing Colorado in the 1st round would be worst case scenario for this team.

I feel the Flames match up well against Vancouver and Edmonton but I don't think I could stomach a BOA in the current environment. You would have HNIC, the media, and the NHL all pulling for Edmonton as they all want McDavid to go as far as possible in the playoffs because it's good for business. I'm not sure the Flames would get a fair shake in a close series especially given how good the Oilers powerplay is.

[Otto-matic]

I feel the Flames match up well against Vancouver and Edmonton but I don't think I could stomach a BOA in the current environment. You would have HNIC, the media, and the NHL all pulling for Edmonton as they all want McDavid to go as far as possible in the playoffs because it's good for business. I'm not sure the Flames would get a fair shake in a close series especially given how good the Oilers powerplay is.

Ugh true, the oilers love fest would be unbearable.

Hopefully Edmonton hits a slide and Vancouver moves into 3rd while we go into 2nd.

[Monahammer]

An oilers media love fest would just heighten the joy of their downfall. We would definitely beat them in a series, no matter what the reffing situation.

Knowing our luck we draw Colorado again though. Cue 'nam flashbacks.

[PaperBagger'14]

A little off topic, but is Detroit the worst team ever in the salary cap era?

There was a good read on reddit a month ago about some basic stats (GF, GA, diff, win%) and they were definitely one of the worst. I'll try to dig it up.

Quick find:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/f5hoiw/if_the_red_wings_want_to_avoid_being_the_worst/

[mikephoen]

I think Vancouver is the ideal matchup and at this point I think it would even be better to start on the road against them.

[Textcritic]

Honestly, I like the thought of the Flames starting on the road against pretty much anyone.

[FlamingHabs Fan]

I looked at the standings last night and wondered this as well. -120 goal differential and 35 points. They are so so bad.

People say it jokingly that such and such a team could be beat by an AHL team. With Detroit, that is honestly true.

[Erick Estrada]

Ugh true, the oilers love fest would be unbearable.

Hopefully Edmonton hits a slide and Vancouver moves into 3rd while we go into 2nd.

To make matters worse they would probably have Dave Randorf call the series and he's smitten with the Oilers. He was on that 960 Vancouver morning show talking about how the Oilers are the best of the western Canadian teams. Vomit inducing radio it was.

[motorcrosser]

Use this.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200302/3ae6f4684155f8e5cf8d304688b6ab74.jpg

[Jiri Hrdina]

Absolutely! Rittich has done himself little favour in the past 2 months to earn himself the outright "Starter" role.

I feel Talbot has been much more consistent in that timeframe. Given the criticality of every game now, they gotta treat each game as a playoff game, and hence, need to start the lineup with the highest probability for Ws. At this point, that's gotta be Talbot in my opinion.

Up until the game in Florida, Talbot hasn't been exactly lights out.

In fact his last 3 starts before then:
Boston: 4 GA, .826
Anaheim: 4 GA, .867
Chicago: 4 GA .692
Prior to that he shut out Anaheim

The issue is that neither goalie has grabbed the net.

[Erick Estrada]

The issue is that neither goalie has grabbed the net.

Bingo. The Flames are one of those teams rolling 1A/1B tandem and it's not ideal but will remain that way until the GM can find a top calibre starting goaltender. They really want Rittich to take the ball and run but for whatever reason he has issues maintaining a high level of play as seasons progress.

[Abatedmean]

Bingo. The Flames are one of those teams rolling 1A/1B tandem and it's not ideal but will remain that way until the GM can find a top calibre starting goaltender. They really want Rittich to take the ball and run but for whatever reason he has issues maintaining a high level of play as seasons progress.

I feel like Rittich really needs his rest and needs to work in a 1A/1B situation. The reason why it hasn't been working is that he has kinda been playing with more of a starter's workload. Maybe he just needs another season t build that ability up. But, for now, I still think we need to shelter him a bit more.

[Itse]

Up until the game in Florida, Talbot hasn't been exactly lights out.

In fact his last 3 starts before then:
Boston: 4 GA, .826
Anaheim: 4 GA, .867
Chicago: 4 GA .692
Prior to that he shut out Anaheim

The issue is that neither goalie has grabbed the net.

Dude, did Talbot hurt you or something? Why would you pick such a tiny random sample that specifically ignores shutouts right before and after it? :D

This is nonsensical cherry picking at it's worst.

Cam Talbots SV% is 12th in the league, he's been more than fine.

Rittichs stats are also not at all bad in the right context, which is that he's got one of the highest numbers of games played.

There's only 10 goalies with 45 games or more in the league, and Rittich is middle of the pack in that group. He's got the same SV% than Marc-Andre Fleury, even though Rittich has faced almost 100 shots more in the same number of games.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Dude, did Talbot hurt you or something? Why would you pick such a tiny random sample that specifically ignores shutouts right before and after it? :D

This is nonsensical cherry picking at it's worst.

Cam Talbots SV% is 12th in the league, he's been more than fine.

Rittichs stats are also not at all bad in the right context, which is that he's got one of the highest numbers of games played.

There's only 10 goalies with 45 games or more in the league, and Rittich is middle of the pack in that group. He's got the same SV% than Marc-Andre Fleury, even though Rittich has faced almost 100 shots more in the same number of games.

I'm actually a Talbot fan and was pushing for his signing in the off-season.
My comments were simply about this perception that he's been the better goalie of late.

[Roof-Daddy]

Talbot was heating up before the break IIRC but had some rough outings when they came back, however he's posted a couple shut outs mixed in there too, including this last game against FLA.

I definitely run with him in the next game and keep going until he puts up a stinker.

[Duffalufagus]

Rittich has done nothing in 2020 to prove he deserves to be the starter. Have to go with the hot hand from here on out, including the playoffs (if we make it in).

[Itse]

I'm actually a Talbot fan and was pushing for his signing in the off-season.
My comments were simply about this perception that he's been the better goalie of late.

Fair enough.

Comparing the two is weird anyway in a situation where Talbot has barely played recently.

Rittich has posted an above .900 SV% only four times in the last 10 games so saying "Talbot has been better" is also kind of a low bar. They've ridden Rittich really hard in February, more than I think is wise.

I really hope they give Talbot a good chunk of the games down the stretch. I don't want to go into the playoffs with one goalie who's burned out and another who has barely played...

[CroFlames]

If I had a choice I would avoid the Oilers in rd 1.

I don't think the series will be reffed fairly since it makes business sense for the NHL to have McLottery go deep in the playoffs.

[jayswin]

Talbot's struggles seem to be when he goes too long without playing. He can be a great goalie, but he needs to be getting starts at a decent clip to stay strong.

[kukkudo]

Talbot shines when he has a workload.

[hwy19man]

After Sunday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Canucks, Knights, and Wild lost in regulation

1. St. Louis (39-17-10) 30 RW, 88 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division, and 2nd overall
4. Las Vegas (36-23-8) 28 RW, 80 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (34-23-8) 29 RW, 76 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (34-26-7) 24 RW, 75 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (34-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Nashville (32-24-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Winnipeg (33-28-6) 26 RW, 72 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Arizona (32-27-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Minnesota (32-26-7) 28 RW, 71 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Chicago (29-28-8) 20 RW, 66 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars and Avalanche are not factors in the race right now as they are safely in second and third places in the Central Division.

[Sainters7]

Why does it feel like we always have the stretch run being primarily road games... then the one year where it's finally an advantage to be on the road and it's almost exclusively home games?

At least it'll give them a solid chance to finally work on getting back to winning hockey at home going into the playoffs...I hope!

[Joborule]

I feel the Flames match up well against Vancouver and Edmonton but I don't think I could stomach a BOA in the current environment. You would have HNIC, the media, and the NHL all pulling for Edmonton as they all want McDavid to go as far as possible in the playoffs because it's good for business. I'm not sure the Flames would get a fair shake in a close series especially given how good the Oilers powerplay is.

Oh but it would be so damn sweet to crush the souls of that organization and the media by best them in a best of 7, and bringing their season to a close while Flames continue on.

I hope this is the year that this finally happens. Been a very, very long time. Wasn't even born then.

[gt4flames]

Wrong thread.

[Robbob]

After the game last night. Nashville on the verge of falling out of the WC spot. They play Minny today and then they play Dallas twice.

https://i.imgur.com/MVfgsQu.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1234722801526935553

[EldrickOnIce]

A little off topic, but is Detroit the worst team ever in the salary cap era?

No. Edmonton is

[Erick Estrada]

According the Athletic's playoff tracker that Nashville loss bumped up the Flames playoff odds a fair bit to 76%. Thanks Oilers!

[djsFlames]

According the Athletic's playoff tracker that Nashville loss bumped up the Flames playoff odds a fair bit to 76%. Thanks Oilers!

The Oilers helping to qualify the Flames who eventually eliminate them would be just the greatest of things.

[ricardodw]

This is a chance for Gio to shine in important games.


He has a total of 9 career playoff games where he played an important role. The Flames are 1-8

From 2010-12 the Flames missed the playoffs with with 90 94 and 90 pts.

Bouwmeester was the Flames #1D ( 26 minutes a game) and they needed him to be a difference maker to make the playoffs in March/April. He played very poorly.

[OutOfTheCube]

Let's be honest, with the position they're in and having 11/15 games at home, they'll have no one to blame but themselves if they collapse and miss the playoffs. Completely in control of their own destiny.

[GioforPM]

Why does it feel like we always have the stretch run being primarily road games... then the one year where it's finally an advantage to be on the road and it's almost exclusively home games?

At least it'll give them a solid chance to finally work on getting back to winning hockey at home going into the playoffs...I hope!

I think home versus road is going to correct itself. The home will games will still be an advantage down the stretch when play style gets more road like anyway.

[timbit]

This is a chance for Gio to shine in important games.


He has a total of 9 career playoff games where he played an important role. The Flames are 1-8

From 2010-12 the Flames missed the playoffs with with 90 94 and 90 pts.

Bouwmeester was the Flames #1D ( 26 minutes a game) and they needed him to be a difference maker to make the playoffs in March/April. He played very poorly.

Gio...the reigning Norris winner?

Bouwmeester, who along with Parayko , were the shutdown pair throughout the Blues Stanley Cup run and played huge minutes?

Hmmm ?

[GioforPM]

It’s almost like hockey is a team game...

[ricardodw]

It’s almost like hockey is a team game...

so maybe it would be better if everyone on the "team" Gio Mangiapane, Rieder and all the coaches and trainers and scouts all get paid 1M / season.

Of course that is ridiculous. Just like saying that Gio's expected high level of play does not impact the Flames chances of success to a much larger degree than almost anyone else on the team.

[VilleN]

so maybe it would be better if everyone on the "team" Gio Mangiapane, Rieder and all the coaches and trainers and scouts all get paid 1M / season.

Of course that is ridiculous. Just like saying that Gio's expected high level of play does not impact the Flames chances of success to a much larger degree than almost anyone else on the team.

What a weird collection of players...

[Textcritic]

so maybe it would be better if everyone on the "team" Gio Mangiapane, Rieder and all the coaches and trainers and scouts all get paid 1M / season.
We agree. That would be much better.

[dissentowner]

so maybe it would be better if everyone on the "team" Gio Mangiapane, Rieder and all the coaches and trainers and scouts all get paid 1M / season.

Of course that is ridiculous. Just like saying that Gio's expected high level of play does not impact the Flames chances of success to a much larger degree than almost anyone else on the team.

Man, you truly come up with the weirdest stuff...

[GioforPM]

so maybe it would be better if everyone on the "team" Gio Mangiapane, Rieder and all the coaches and trainers and scouts all get paid 1M / season.

Of course that is ridiculous. Just like saying that Gio's expected high level of play does not impact the Flames chances of success to a much larger degree than almost anyone else on the team.

Of course he’s expected to be better than most. But no matter how good you are, you need a team to succeed. See Lindros/Eric; Dionne/Marcel; etc.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Of course he’s expected to be better than most. But no matter how good you are, you need a team to succeed. See Lindros/Eric; Dionne/Marcel; etc.

To add: Gretzky, multiple teams post oilers

[hwy19man]

After Monday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Oilers and Avalanche won in regulation
Predators lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (39-17-10) 30 RW, 88 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division, and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-18-7) 36 RW, 87 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (36-23-8) 28 RW, 80 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (35-23-8) 30 RW, 78 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (34-26-7) 24 RW, 75 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (34-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Nashville (32-25-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Winnipeg (33-28-6) 26 RW, 72 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Arizona (32-27-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Minnesota (32-26-7) 28 RW, 71 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Chicago (29-28-8) 20 RW, 66 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 81 points.

[Robbob]

Need the win to keep pace and stay ahead of Van. A couple key games tonight.

https://i.imgur.com/lNC6FTJ.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1235096834395099136

[Tsawwassen]

After Tuesday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Blues, Knights, Wild, Jets, and Bhawks won in regulation
Oilers won in overtime
Stars lost in overtime
Predators lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-17-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-18-7) 36 RW, 87 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-23-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-23-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (34-26-7) 24 RW, 75 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (34-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (34-28-6) 27 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Minnesota (33-26-7) 29 RW, 73 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Nashville (32-26-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (32-27-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (30-28-8) 21 RW, 68 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Coyotes won in regulation
Flames won in overtime
Avs lost in overtime
Canucks lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-17-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-18-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-23-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-23-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (35-26-7) 24 RW, 77 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (35-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (34-28-6) 27 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Arizona (33-27-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Minnesota (33-26-7) 29 RW, 73 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Nashville (32-26-8) 25 RW, 72 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Chicago (30-28-8) 21 RW, 68 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[calgarygeologist]

Vancouver and Phoenix have very interesting schedules in terms of deciding the standings in the West. 13 of 15 games are against Western Conference teams with half of those against Pacific teams.

[tvp2003]

Flames have 77 points with 14 games left. 93 points should comfortably put them top 3 in the division. The math works out easy enough:

8 wins in 14 games = 16 points
16 + 77 = 93 points

So if you treat the next 14 games as two 7 game segments, they just need to win each segment and they're in (4 wins each).

Let the playoffs begin!

[united]

Hadn't seen an analysis on this posted yet, but here is a look at strength of schedule remaining for all 31 teams. Obviously an important factor (though not as important as many other sports). Note this was current before the March 3rd games.

Good news to see the Flames have the second-easiest schedule remaining which, should they perform at or above expectations, will give them a confidence boost entering the playoffs.

Also, the Red Wings facing the second-toughest schedule is amazing given their horrendous season already.

By the numbers: How schedule strength might affect the NHL playoff race
https://theathletic.com/1649191/2020/03/03/by-the-numbers-how-schedule-strength-might-affect-the-nhl-playoff-race/

Spoiler due to image size.
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/03/02164027/Screen-Shot-2020-03-02-at-4.38.22-PM.png

[Robbob]

After the games last night.

https://i.imgur.com/bb9hBr6.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1235449995710664704

[FanIn80]

Explanation
"Normalized" means to take the lowest amount of games remaining among the teams being compared, and then grant every other team enough regulation wins to equalize them all.

Not entirely scientific. More of a worst-case scenario, but still paints a clearer picture of everyone's position than the actual current standings do. Can't be used to predict actual outcomes due to games played against each other. Purposely left out the top three in the Central, as I believe them to be locks and therefore inconsequential to the WC race. I know Dallas is comparable to EDM/VGK right now, but Calgary can't place in the top three in the Central, so that doesn't matter.

Pacific playoff contenders, normalized:
VGK 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW
EDM 82PTS, 14GR, 31RW
VAN 78PTS, 14GR, 28RW
CGY 77PTS, 14GR, 24RW

Central WC threats, normalized:
WPG: 74PTS, 14GR, 27RW
MIN: 77PTS, 14GR, 31RW
NSH: 76PTS, 14GR, 27RW
ARI: 74PTS, 14GR, 26RW

Combined standings, normalized:
EDM 82PTS, 14GR, 31RW
VGK 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW
VAN 78PTS, 14GR, 28RW

MIN: 77PTS, 14GR, 31RW
CGY 77PTS, 14GR, 24RW

NSH: 76PTS, 14GR, 27RW
WPG: 74PTS, 14GR, 27RW
ARI: 74PTS, 14GR, 26RW

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Explanation
"Normalized" means to take the lowest amount of games remaining among the teams being compared, and then grant every other team enough regulation wins to equalize them all.

Not entirely scientific. More of a worst-case scenario, but still paints a clearer picture of everyone's position than the actual current standings do. Can't be used to predict actual outcomes due to games played against each other. Purposely left out the top three in the Central, as I believe them to be locks and therefore inconsequential to the WC race. I know Dallas is comparable to EDM/VGK right now, but Calgary can't place in the top three in the Central, so that doesn't matter.

Pacific playoff contenders, normalized:
VGK 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW
EDM 82PTS, 14GR, 31RW
VAN 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW
CGY 77PTS, 14GR, 25RW

Central WC threats, normalized:
WPG: 74PTS, 14GR, 27RW
MIN: 77PTS, 14GR, 31RW
NSH: 76PTS, 14GR, 27RW
ARI: 74PTS, 14GR, 26RW

Combined standings, normalized:
EDM 82PTS, 14GR, 31RW
VGK 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW
VAN 82PTS, 14GR, 29RW

MIN: 77PTS, 14GR, 31RW
CGY 77PTS, 14GR, 25RW

NSH: 76PTS, 14GR, 27RW
WPG: 74PTS, 14GR, 27RW
ARI: 74PTS, 14GR, 26RW

Vancouver should be normalized to 78

[FanIn80]

Vancouver should be normalized to 78

Thanks! I messed up Calgary too. :bag:

[Itse]

Hadn't seen an analysis on this posted yet, but here is a look at strength of schedule remaining for all 31 teams. Obviously an important factor (though not as important as many other sports). Note this was current before the March 3rd games.

Good news to see the Flames have the second-easiest schedule remaining which, should they perform at or above expectations, will give them a confidence boost entering the playoffs.

Also, the Red Wings facing the second-toughest schedule is amazing given their horrendous season already.

By the numbers: How schedule strength might affect the NHL playoff race
https://theathletic.com/1649191/2020/03/03/by-the-numbers-how-schedule-strength-might-affect-the-nhl-playoff-race/

Spoiler due to image size.
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/03/02164027/Screen-Shot-2020-03-02-at-4.38.22-PM.png

IMO late in the season these "schedule strength" predictions are worthless. Teams have so unique situations and they all react to them differently. Some "strong" teams comfortably in the playoffs start playing soft, while others fight hard for positions. Some teams on the bubble buckle under pressure while others savour it. Some teams out of the playoffs stop trying and others start playing loose and/or fight hard for their pride.

[Enoch Root]

Flames have 77 points with 14 games left. 93 points should comfortably put them top 3 in the division. The math works out easy enough:

8 wins in 14 games = 16 points
16 + 77 = 93 points

So if you treat the next 14 games as two 7 game segments, they just need to win each segment and they're in (4 wins each).

Let the playoffs begin!

The Nucks would only need to go 9-6-1 to finish with 93 points, ahead of the Flames. So I don't know about 'comfortably'.

[djsFlames]

The Nucks would only need to go 9-6-1 to finish with 93 points, ahead of the Flames. So I don't know about 'comfortably'.

That won't be a cake walk with the current goaltending situation, as this current stretch has demonstrated.

But yes, I think no matter what the Flames should be aiming for 9-5.

If you manage that, theres no question you're coming into the POs hot.

[Phaneufenstein]

IMO late in the season these "schedule strength" predictions are worthless. Teams have so unique situations and they all react to them differently. Some "strong" teams comfortably in the playoffs start playing soft, while others fight hard for positions. Some teams on the bubble buckle under pressure while others savour it. Some teams out of the playoffs stop trying and others start playing loose and/or fight hard for their pride.

That's true but then we'd have nothing to talk about!

[Enoch Root]

I always like to look at how many games over .500 each team is, as that doesn't get clouded by number of games played. Currently, the Flames are +9 (35W, 26L). There are 5 teams behind them that sit as follows:

VAN +8
MIN +7
WIN +6
ARI +6
NAS +6

Three of those teams have to pass them or they are in. And one of the 3 has to be VAN or ARI. So things look pretty good. As for games over .500, the likelihood of getting in shakes out as follows:

Finish +8: 25% (that means 1 game below .500, or 6-7-1, the rest of the way)
Finish +9: 50% (7-7-0)
Finish +10: 70-75%
Finish +11: 90% (93 points)
Finish +12: 97%
Finish +13: 100% (rounded), (4 games over, or 9-5-0)

Even if they only go 1 game over .500 the rest of the way (finishing with 92 pts), there is a very good chance they're in.

[Enoch Root]

Oh, and of course, 96 points (a.k.a. the snake line) is 100%

[JohnnyBeGood]

I think home versus road is going to correct itself. The home will games will still be an advantage down the stretch when play style gets more road like anyway.

The Flames average 1.09 points per game at home and 1.16 ppg on the road: so home record vs road record is hardly like day and night. The number of road games played is a lot higher (e.g. 37 vs 31), this makes the road record appear much stronger if you just look at number of victories. Totally agree that this is likely to correct itself over the remainder of the schedule (mainly at home).

Strangely, there are a fair few other teams whose count of away victories at this point is greater than their home victories: e.g Caps, Leafs, Avs, some team to the north.

[FanIn80]

I'll update and post every day.

https://i.postimg.cc/3NQJDLGx/playoffs.png

Obviously it's impossible for every team to win all their games, but it's an easier (for me at least) way to track mathematical elimination.

[hwy19man]

After Thursday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Bhawks, Predators, and Wild won in regulation
Oilers and Stars lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-17-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-18-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-23-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-24-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (35-26-7) 24 RW, 77 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Minnesota (34-26-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (35-25-6) 26 RW, 74 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (33-26-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Winnipeg (34-28-6) 27 RW, 74 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-27-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-28-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The California teams are too far back and the Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[FanIn80]

Updated!

https://i.postimg.cc/1Xnvd4kY/playoffs.png

[Tsawwassen]

After Friday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Flames, Jets, and Canucks won in regulation
Coyotes, Knights, Avs, Blues, and Bhawks lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-18-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-19-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division

4. Las Vegas (37-24-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Edmonton (36-24-8) 30 RW, 80 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-26-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (35-25-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Minnesota (34-26-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Nashville (33-26-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-29-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Predators are ahead of the Coyotes because Nashville has 30 ROWs to Arizona's 28 ROWs.
The Stars are not a factor in the race right now as they are safely in third place in the Central Division with 82 points.

[FanIn80]

https://i.postimg.cc/nrk87j2g/playoffs.png

Updated

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Is there somewhere that shows the standings according to current pace? Ie, 82/GP*Pts for each team?

[FanIn80]

Is there somewhere that shows the standings according to current pace? Ie, 82/GP*Pts for each team?

I could add that in.

Edit: I've added it in (above). How is that?

[hwy19man]

]After Saturday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Predators and Oilers won in regulation
Stars and Wild lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (40-18-10) 31 RW, 90 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 2nd overall
2. Colorado (40-19-8) 36 RW, 88 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
4. Edmonton (37-24-8) 31 RW, 82 pts--first in the Pacific Division
5. Las Vegas (37-24-8) 29 RW, 82 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-26-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Vancouver (36-25-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
8. Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Minnesota (34-27-7) 30 RW, 75 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-29-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division

[Tsawwassen]

After Sunday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Knights, Blues, and Avs won in regulation
Wild won in overtime

Flames, Bhawks, and Canucks lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (41-18-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (41-19-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (38-24-8) 30 RW, 84 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
5. Edmonton (37-24-8) 31 RW, 82 pts--second in the Pacific Division
6. Calgary (36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Minnesota (35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (35-27-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Winnipeg (35-28-6) 28 RW, 76 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-28-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Canucks are ahead of the Predators because Vancouver has 32 ROWs to Nashville's 31 ROWs.

[FanIn80]

https://i.postimg.cc/cC0F6PL9/playoffs.png

Updated.

Edit: The important thing to keep in mind, down the stretch, is that we lose most of the tie breakers with every other team we're competing with.

1. Regulation Wins (RW)
2. Regulation/OT Wins
3. Wins
4. Record vs Opponent
5. Goal Differential
6. Goals For

Meaning if we finish tied with another team in points, there's an extremely high possibility we would lose all three of the first tie breakers, as well as the last two. Basically, we might have a chance at winning the "Season Series" tiebreaker with some of the teams, but it wouldn't matter because we'd never get to that tiebreaker in the first place.

[ricardodw]

since all star break

Vegas MAF 7-4-1 2.57 .898 Lehner 4-2-1 3.02 .911
Dallas Bishop 5-5-1 2.96 .906 Khudobin 5-1-3 2.06 .934
Edmonton Koskinen 4-4-0 2.29 .936 Smith 7-2-3 2.90 .903
Calgary Rittich 5-5-1 3.60 .888 Talbot 5-3-1 2.80 .915
Minn Stalock 9-3-1 2.22 9.24 Dubnyk 3-3-0 3.59 .882
Van Markstom (out) 5-3-1 2.89 .923 Demko 3-5-1 2.98 .905
Nash Sarros 10-4-0 2.15 .936 Rinne 2-4-1 4.12 .884
wpg Hellebuyck 8-5-1 2.17 .932 Broissot 2-1-1 1.98 .933
Arz Raatana 6-4-1 2.10 .937


Which goalie will ruin their teams playoff chances? Which will carry their teams into the post season?


Goals scored last night would suggest that both Lehner and Rittich were AHL call ups.

[FanIn80]

Post-All-Star Game goalie stats for the teams we're competing against for a playoff spot:

ARI
https://i.postimg.cc/yVmmYpHH/ari.png

CGY
https://i.postimg.cc/ZbJr9Pby/cgy.png

EDM
https://i.postimg.cc/zzpTTLv2/edm.png

MIN
https://i.postimg.cc/zXhL23Dr/min.png

NSH
https://i.postimg.cc/br7ZNfTW/nsh.png

VAN
https://i.postimg.cc/Mpbnx4j3/van.png

VGK
https://i.postimg.cc/v8kgv5sh/vgk.png

WPG
https://i.postimg.cc/qvdNP0gC/wpg.png

[ricardodw]

Post-All-Star Game goalie stats for the teams we're competing against for a playoff spot:

ARI
https://i.postimg.cc/yVmmYpHH/ari.png

CGY
https://i.postimg.cc/ZbJr9Pby/cgy.png

EDM
https://i.postimg.cc/zzpTTLv2/edm.png

MIN
https://i.postimg.cc/zXhL23Dr/min.png

NSH
https://i.postimg.cc/br7ZNfTW/nsh.png

VAN
https://i.postimg.cc/Mpbnx4j3/van.png

VGK
https://i.postimg.cc/v8kgv5sh/vgk.png

WPG
https://i.postimg.cc/qvdNP0gC/wpg.png

If Rittich was playing at this level to start the season Gillies might have had an NHL call up. In 2011-12 Gillies had pretty much the same stats in his 11 NHL games as Rittich has had in his last 12.

Gillies basically blew his chance with this level of play.

[Always Earned Never Given]

I really think that the best case scenario to know what this team is made of, would be for Colorado to overtake St.Louis for 1st Overall in the West and for the Flames to finish in the 2nd wildcard spot. (both very probable at the moment)

This way, we get to see what this team is capable of doing against the team that kinda destroyed their dream season! (they would hopefully have a chip on their shoulders plus one of the best teams on the road)

Then management will have no choice but to make major changes if the results are the same as last year but if they get to the 2nd round, the confidence would be sky high.

[Always Earned Never Given]

If Rittich was playing at this level to start the season Gillies might have had an NHL call up. In 2011-12 Gillies had pretty much the same stats in his 11 NHL games as Rittich has had in his last 12.

Gillies basically blew his chance with this level of play.

What? Gillies was drafted in 2012! First game he played was in 2016-17

[getoverit]

the way were playing we wont be taking a wild card spot. the only way we stay in a playoff spot is staying in top 3 in division and it will take Vancouver to continue to suck for us to maintain it.


I really think that the best case scenario to know what this team is made of, would be for Colorado to overtake St.Louis for 1st Overall in the West and for the Flames to finish in the 2nd wildcard spot. (both very probable at the moment)

This way, we get to see what this team is capable of doing against the team that kinda destroyed their dream season! (they would hopefully have a chip on their shoulders plus one of the best teams on the road)

Then management will have no choice but to make major changes if the results are the same as last year but if they get to the 2nd round, the confidence would be sky high.

[djsFlames]

That won't be a cake walk with the current goaltending situation, as this current stretch has demonstrated.

But yes, I think no matter what the Flames should be aiming for 9-5.

If you manage that, theres no question you're coming into the POs hot.

9-5 was the goal when I posted this.

We've gone 1-1 since.

8-4 is now the mark to strive for.

[Joborule]

Post-All-Star Game goalie stats for the teams we're competing against for a playoff spot:

ARI
https://i.postimg.cc/yVmmYpHH/ari.png

CGY
https://i.postimg.cc/ZbJr9Pby/cgy.png

EDM
https://i.postimg.cc/zzpTTLv2/edm.png

MIN
https://i.postimg.cc/zXhL23Dr/min.png

NSH
https://i.postimg.cc/br7ZNfTW/nsh.png

VAN
https://i.postimg.cc/Mpbnx4j3/van.png

VGK
https://i.postimg.cc/v8kgv5sh/vgk.png

WPG
https://i.postimg.cc/qvdNP0gC/wpg.png

In the playoffs, and even in the push for the playoffs, one of your best players has to be your goaltender. You're not going to be able to rely on outscoring your opponent in high scoring games night-by-night.

Flames better hope that Talbot can at minimum maintain his stat line if they're going to survive making it past game 82.

[GioforPM]

Ricardo, is Vegas stupid if they play Fleury more than Lerner?

[bubbsy]

All I know is that I'm cheering for the flames to fall into a wc spot.

Rather see them get spanked to a div champ than lose in the first round to the oilers.

I'm sure it would be a great series but watching the flames lose to them would break me.

[FanIn80]

https://i.postimg.cc/vZtHLFQ7/playoffs.png

Updated for tomorrow.

[Tsawwassen]

After Monday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Jets and won in regulation
Knights won in overtime
Oilers lost in overtime
Coyotes, Blues, and Avs lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (41-19-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (41-20-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (39-24-8) 30 RW, 86 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Edmonton (37-24-9) 31 RW, 83 pts--second in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
6. Calgary (36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Winnipeg (36-28-6) 29 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Minnesota (35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--fifth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Vancouver (35-27-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-29-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Canucks are ahead of the Predators because Vancouver has 32 ROWs to Nashville's 31 ROWs.

[The Cobra]

After Monday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Jets and won in regulation
Knights won in overtime
Oilers lost in overtime
Coyotes, Blues, and Avs lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (41-19-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (41-20-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (39-24-8) 30 RW, 86 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Edmonton (37-24-9) 31 RW, 83 pts--second in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
6. Calgary (36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Winnipeg (36-28-6) 29 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Minnesota (35-27-7) 31 RW, 77 pts--fifth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Vancouver (36-26-6) 27 RW, 76 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
Nashville (34-26-8) 27 RW, 76 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (33-29-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division



The Canucks are ahead of the Predators because Vancouver has 32 ROWs to Nashville's 31 ROWs.



Vancouver is 35-27-6.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Tsawwassen]

Vancouver is 35-27-6. Thanks Cobra, I have corrected it.

[Robbob]

Conference race as of games played yesterday. I think the key race for the Flames right now is staying in the top three Pacific spots. Hopefully the Islanders can do us a solid tonight.

https://i.imgur.com/USy3g4V.jpg

https://twitter.com/Ech28/status/1237245149249503232

[Erick Estrada]

All I know is that I'm cheering for the flames to fall into a wc spot.

Rather see them get spanked to a div champ than lose in the first round to the oilers.

I'm sure it would be a great series but watching the flames lose to them would break me.

Yeah it's looking like Vegas will finish 1st, Oilers 2nd, and unlike a lot of fans I dread a BOA playoff series as the Oilers will probably win and we will never hear about it. Regardless of the rosters they have played better hockey than the Flames most of the season and they have have a far superior head coach. Combine that with the fact that the Flames almost always lose in the 1st round and it's just one of those things that I would prefer losing to a US franchise.

[bax]

Have some confidence boys.

Brodie and Gio will shut down McDavid.

3M will outscore Draisaitl.

Flames won’t surrender a bunch of power plays and we take the series win.

[Psytic]

All I know is that I'm cheering for the flames to fall into a wc spot.

Rather see them get spanked to a div champ than lose in the first round to the oilers.

I'm sure it would be a great series but watching the flames lose to them would break me.

Imagine what it would do to the Flames considering how long it took them to get over the loss to the Avs.

[Toonage]

If the Flames go out again in the 1st round I would imagine a lot of those players will have to get over it on different teams.

The 20-21 Flames will look a lot different and have a lot less baggage if that were the case.

[Erick Estrada]

If the Flames go out again in the 1st round I would imagine a lot of those players will have to get over it on different teams.

The 20-21 Flames will look a lot different and have a lot less baggage if that were the case.

I'm hoping the 20-21 Flames look a lot different regardless as I've about had enough of this core group. I'm still not convinced they will make the playoffs. Every time they start sucking me back into believing they are getting things together, they lay an egg like Sunday night at home in a big 4 point game not even bothering to show up for the first half of a game much like they did earlier in the season.

[dino7c]

Yeah it's looking like Vegas will finish 1st, Oilers 2nd, and unlike a lot of fans I dread a BOA playoff series as the Oilers will probably win and we will never hear about it. Regardless of the rosters they have played better hockey than the Flames most of the season and they have have a far superior head coach. Combine that with the fact that the Flames almost always lose in the 1st round and it's just one of those things that I would prefer losing to a US franchise.

Really? they have one more win...the Oilers were double digit points better in November. Flames are 3-1 against them. Lately they are getting outshot 2:1 or worse.

They had a better start, Flames have been better the last few months

[Erick Estrada]

Really? they have one more win...they were double digit points better in November. Flames are 3-1 against them. Lately they are getting outshot 2:1 or worse.

They had a better start, Flames have been better the last few months

The records are what they are. The Oilers have been the better team right down to goal differential. We aren't talking about a massive disparity or anything but the Oilers have played better defensively, their goaltenders have been better, their special teams are better, their coach is better, and even though they have less top level players the theirs have played far better. I don't expect Flames homers to accept it but I try to stay somewhat objective.

[dino7c]

The records are what they are. The Oilers have been the better team right down to goal differential. We aren't talking about a massive disparity or anything but the Oilers have played better defensively, their goaltenders have been better, their special teams are better, their coach is better, and even though they have less top level players the theirs have played far better. I don't expect Flames homers to accept it but I try to stay somewhat objective.

Wow better at every single thing yet only one more win and down 1:3 head to head.

Oilers had a ridiculously hot start, Flames have been better since

Take your homer bull#### and shove it, you are an anti homer

Oilers were awesome last night and on saturday lol

Giving up 40-50 shots a game is the way to go long term

[Erick Estrada]

Wow better at every single thing yet only one more win and down 1:3 head to head.

Oilers had a ridiculously hot start, Flames have been better since

Take your homer bull#### and shove it, you are an anti homer

Oilers were awesome last night and on saturday lol

Honestly this is why there are so many arguments in these forums. Are you an adult or what? I am entitled to my opinion just like you. I'm not sure how anyone could come to the conclusion that the Flames have played better hockey than the Oilers this season.

[dino7c]

Honestly this is why we have so many arguments. Are you an adult or what? I am entitled to my opinion just like you. I'm not sure how anyone could come to the conclusion that the Flames have played better hockey than the Oilers this season.

You are the one calling people homers and "I don't expect you to be objective" (nice opinion)

Flames have dominated the season series and have a far better record since November when Peters was fired

Its not debatable...they have

The Oilers game last night was worse than any game the Flames have played in months if we are talking about where teams are trending

For christ sake they had THREE shots half way through the game

If you have watched them play lately and think that is sustainable to picking up wins/points I don't know what to tell you

[Erick Estrada]

Was I not right? I said; "I don't expect Flames homers to accept it" and like clockwork you jump in with a profanity laced post, basically proving my point. I didn't name names or anything. Flames have been chasing the Oilers in the standings most of the season. It is what it is.

[djsFlames]

Oilers played the knights way worse than the Flames did.

People would be losing their minds if we had a first two periods like that. But Oilers were more fortunate and got better goaltending you could probably safely say, hence the point.

I'd definitely say the Flames are playing the better hockey of late and by a fair margin.

[Psytic]

Id rather face the Canucks. I think the Flames can dominate them physically and they are one of the few teams that are more mentally fragile. Assuming they even get in at this rate.

[djsFlames]

Id rather face the Canucks. I think the Flames can dominate them physically and they are one of the few teams that are more mentally fragile. Assuming they even get in at this rate.

When it comes to mental fragility, you don't think Tkachuk can set off an Oilers implosion in a potential series? You saw the effect he had on the team and city over a few hits right?

I'd be okay with either matchup.

[Erick Estrada]

Oilers played the knights way worse than the Flames did.

People would be losing their minds if we had a first two periods like that. But Oilers were more fortunate and got better goaltending you could probably safely say, hence the point.

I'd definitely say the Flames are playing the better hockey of late and by a fair margin.

The Oilers were in position to win their game, never trailed, and came out with a point. I fail to see how that's worse than being down 3-0 and having to scratch back only to lose in regulation. There's little point in trying to convince me or anyone educated that a sample size of one or two games in an 82 game season is relevant when discussing what team has been better over the course of an 82 game season.

[Psytic]

When it comes to mental fragility, you don't think Tkachuk can set off an Oilers implosion in a potential series? You saw the effect he had on the team and city over a few hits right?

I'd be okay with either matchup.

I mean maybe but sometimes they get up for the game because of Chucky and bear eats you. Every game now against the Kings for instance is like their Stanley cup. It doesn't always work in our favor since the flames pick and choose when they are going to show up.

[Textcritic]

Was I not right? I said; "I don't expect Flames homers to accept it" and like clockwork you jump in with a profanity laced post, basically proving my point. I didn't name names or anything. Flames have been chasing the Oilers in the standings most of the season. It is what it is.
Designating counter opinions as belonging to "Flames homers" is not doing you any favours.

I think that your point about the Oilers playing better hockey most of the season is at best irrelevant, and at worst disingenuous considering the size of the gap. What matters most is how teams are playing once the playoffs start, and whether they can carry that play through more than a handful of games. For two weeks now the Oilers have looked atrocious; despite their record they have been getting obliterated by other teams. Koskinen is playing some of the best hockey of his life, but it is legitimately uncertain whether he can continue to play at the same level when things ramp up to another level.

[Erick Estrada]

Id rather face the Canucks. I think the Flames can dominate them physically and they are one of the few teams that are more mentally fragile. Assuming they even get in at this rate.

I like the Canucks matchup much more as well as it seems to me the Flames get under the skin of their skill players and if Markstrom's not back then who wouldn't want that matchup against a team missing their MVP? Also the only times the Flames have ever done much of anything in the playoffs is after facing the Canucks in the 1st round.

[Psytic]

I like the Canucks matchup much more as well as it seems to me the Flames get under the skin of their skill players and if Markstrom's not back then who wouldn't want that matchup against a team missing their MVP? Also the only times the Flames have ever done much of anything in the playoffs is after facing the Canucks in the 1st round.

Strange but true. That's a funny stat. Bring on the Canucks!

[bubbsy]

I actually don't want to face the oilers not because I think they are that much better than the flames (though, I do think their slightly better. They have more points, more wins, more regulation wins; 6 more in fact, better goal differential, better special teams, better goaltending, not to mention 2x top5 forwards in the league, now playing on 2 separate lines).

I think it would be a long series. Even if we go in with 50/50 odds on it, I just can't live thru a playoff elimination at the hands of the oilers. Can the flames beat the oilers this year in a best of 7, sure, maybe. I'd still want to avoid it as the alternate outcome is unpalatable.

[dino7c]

Oilers have been one win better over the entire season...Flames have been better since November though and have a major edge head to head.

As for last night, I can't remember seeing a team dominated that badly. The shots were 24-3 half way through the game against a team that played the night before (an advantage the Oilers often have but won't in the playoffs) They fluked out a point but it's pretty telling of how their team is trending. 40-50 shots against is not sustainable, their coach agrees.

I wouldn't bet the farm on a series against the Oilers but to suggest they would be some big favourite is ridiculous

How do the Flames face the Canucks in round one? Highly unlikely

It's Blues, Vegas, Colorado, Oilers

I know my pick

[djsFlames]

I might take colorado sans MacKinnon in a revenge series. Somehow pulling that out in 7 would be the greatest dose of confidence medicine this team could ask for.

And we now have Lucic to punch Zadorov in the face when needed.

[dino7c]

Well if MacKinnon is out they likely don't win the division

[Toonage]

I feel like the Flames can't win even if they make the playoffs.
(Assuming they don't go on some miraculous cup run)

Win a round? Geoff Ward likely gets the head coach gig full time.

Win a round? Much needed changes may be put off.

Lose in round 1? Good chance its to the Oilers.

Lose in round 1? Team gets blown up.

[djsFlames]

I feel like the Flames can't win even if they make the playoffs.
(Assuming they don't go on some miraculous cup run)

Win a round? Geoff Ward likely gets the head coach gig full time.

Win a round? Much needed changes may be put off.

Lose in round 1? Good chance its to the Oilers.

Lose in round 1? Team gets blown up.

So you're going to cheer against them if they make it?

For the sake of future playoff runs that havent yet materialized?

[Toonage]

So you're going to cheer against them if they make it?

For the sake of future playoff runs that havent yet materialized?

Nope, sorry didn't mean to infer that. Just concerns.

[dino7c]

Can't argue with fans who want the team to lose so the coach gets fired and players get traded

There would be no negative to winning a round...come on

[Erick Estrada]

I feel like the Flames can't win even if they make the playoffs.
(Assuming they don't go on some miraculous cup run)

Win a round? Geoff Ward likely gets the head coach gig full time.

Win a round? Much needed changes may be put off.

Lose in round 1? Good chance its to the Oilers.

Lose in round 1? Team gets blown up.

I think changes are coming regardless as we have seen enough from this team since the all-star break last season to know that the current construction of the team is flawed. I don't think Treliving is a great GM but I do think he's a smart man and isn't oblivious to the issues nor would winning a playoff round erase his memories of the last 100+ games. Obviously if the Flames go on a long playoff run there would be some pressure to bring back the coach but have the Flames really showed anyone over the course of the last 1.5 seasons that they have it in them to battle through multiple playoff rounds? I don't know, but then again anything can happen and I hope for the Flames to win every game and of course every playoff series as I could never adopt a loser mentality of hoping for losses. Making the playoffs is always a win compared to the alternative even and it's not out of the realm of possibility they get hot at the right time and win a series or two.

[djsFlames]

Can't argue with fans who want the team to lose so the coach gets fired and players get traded

There would be no negative to winning a round...come on

And against the Oilers. Only bad can come from winning, worst thing for the organization. :lol:

Outside of beating a legitimate top team in round 2, I don't see Ward being kept into next season.

[Psytic]

I might take colorado sans MacKinnon in a revenge series. Somehow pulling that out in 7 would be the greatest dose of confidence medicine this team could ask for.

And we now have Lucic to punch Zadorov in the face when needed.

I like it. Cant out skate them but maybe we can punch their faces in. I want to see Ward show some outside the box thinking. Peters had no answer.

[Weitz]

Really? they have one more win...the Oilers were double digit points better in November. Flames are 3-1 against them. Lately they are getting outshot 2:1 or worse.

They had a better start, Flames have been better the last few months

Well yah if you ignore the bad month the flames had and include the bad month the oilers had. And no the oilers have been the better team since new years (5th best in the league).

At the end of the day a series likely goes long with either team having a chance to win. Flames may be up 3-1 in the season series but its 2 blowouts a shoot out win and a 1 goal win. Could really be anything.

Lets be honest though, the playoffs will be cancelled due to the virus after the regular season is over anyway.

[Enoch Root]

Suggesting either team has been better than the other is a reach, when they are only a couple points apart after almost 70 games.

An Oiler media guy was on the FAN this afternoon, and he mentioned that the Oilers have been outshot 239 - 156 in their last 6 games. Yet managed to go 4-1-1

In their last 2 games, they were outshot 94 - 48 and came away with 3 points.

I don't think it's time to anoint them with anything just yet.

Possible playoff opponents:
STL
COL
DAL
VGS
EDM

One of these teams is not like the others.

[Duffalufagus]

I agree that not much separates the flames and oilers (other than they have 2 of the best 5 players in the league) but let’s not pretend they haven’t been better than us this season. We’ve won so many games in OT and shootout this year. Those don’t really count when assessing going into the playoffs. That is shinny. The playoffs is an OT war of attrition.

Any objective assessment of our play suggests we are the worst of the playoff teams.

I’m still cheering for the team though, before people pile on. I’m just not blue skying ####.

[FanIn80]

https://i.postimg.cc/zBZn1THF/playoffs.png

Updated.

[djsFlames]

If you're looking for the silver lining in a BOA, the Oilers are actually a fairly poor team outside of the man advantage.

They're 17th in even strength goals for and 25th in ES goals against.

The 1st ranked PP is what has ballooned them into playoff territory.

So literally just stay out of the box and your chances are good as they are non-playoff caliber in that situation.

[FanIn80]

I don't really like our chances of "staying out of the box" against the Coilers.

1. Bennett
2. NHL Refs
3. McDavid
4. Bennett
5. Bennett

[djsFlames]

But it will be playoff Bennett, not regular season Bennett.

There's a difference.

[Tsawwassen]

After Tuesday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Predators won in regulation
Canucks won in the shootout
Stars lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (70--41-19-10) 32 RW, 92 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (69--41-20-8) 37 RW, 90 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (71--39-24-8) 30 RW, 86 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Edmonton (70--37-24-9) 31 RW, 83 pts--second in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (68--37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
6. Calgary (70--36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
7. Nashville (69--35-26-8) 28 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Central Division
8. Vancouver (69--36-27-6) 27 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
__________________________________________________

Winnipeg (70--36-28-6) 29 RW, 78 pts--fifth in the Central Division
Minnesota (69--35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (70--33-29-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (69--31-30-8) 22 RW, 70 pts--seventh in the Central Division


The number of games played are first and in bold.

[calgarygeologist]

If you're looking for the silver lining in a BOA, the Oilers are actually a fairly poor team outside of the man advantage.

They're 17th in even strength goals for and 25th in ES goals against.

The 1st ranked PP is what has ballooned them into playoff territory.

So literally just stay out of the box and your chances are good as they are non-playoff caliber in that situation.

Not great for the Flames though as there are the tenth most penalized team in the NHL this year. The penalty calling changes a bit in the playoffs so who knows what could happen.

[The Cobra]

https://i.postimg.cc/zBZn1THF/playoffs.png

Updated.



Why is Minny listed above Calgary when Calgary has the better winning percentage and more points?


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[Textcritic]

Why is Minny listed above Calgary when Calgary has the better winning percentage and more points?


Sent from my iPad using TapatalkBecause Fanin80 is ranking teams on the basis of total possible points, not points-pace.

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[Erick Estrada]

Because Fanin80 is ranking teams on the basis of total possible points, not points-pace.

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Also the Flames lose almost all the tiebreakers so they have to finish with more points than pretty well all the teams in the race to place above them as being tied will slot them below. The reality is that the Flames have very little margin for error because they have less regulation wins than all the other teams.

[Textcritic]

Also the Flames lose almost all the tiebreakers so they have to finish with more points than pretty well all the teams in the race to place above them as being tied will slot them below. The reality is that the Flames have very little margin for error because they have less regulation wins than all the other teams.

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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[Erick Estrada]

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.

[Textcritic]

The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.Yes. Like I said: it's the same situation faced by every one of the same teams in the mix. Things are not somehow especially more dire for Calgary than they are for Minnesota, Nashville, Vancouver, etc.

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[Ruttiger]

But it will be playoff Bennett, not regular season Bennett.

There's a difference.

Ah yes - the Shangri-La of Bennetts.

[FanIn80]

A quick note about my chart: Not losing a game is more important that winning a game. I know that sounds stupid, but losing games is the only thing that eliminates a team from making the playoffs. Winning is obviously the goal of every game, but it's really only because it means you didn't lose the game.

Think about it from the start of a season. Everyone starts at 0pts right? Sure, except not really. They all actually start at 164 "possible points (ppts)" and every time they lose a game, they lose either 2ppts or 1ppt depending on how they lost. Calgary started at 164ppts, but they lost 27 games in regulation (2ppt losses) and another 7 in OT or shootouts (1ppt losses), so now they're sitting at 103ppts... meaning that no matter what happens for the rest of the season, 103pts is the absolute best they can do.

Why is that important? Because that's how teams becomes "mathematically eliminated" from making the playoffs (otherwise known as "officially eliminated"). When it is no longer possible for a team to gain enough points to catch they last WC spot.

Using this knowledge, it becomes clear "winning" a game is really only important from a mathematical standpoint in the sense that it's the best possible way to "not lose" a game.

Consider:
- Losing a game in regulation is worth -2ppts
- Losing a game in OT or a shootout is worth -1ppts
- Winning a game in any possible fashion is worth 0ppts

Of course there are complications in the way of tiebreakers, but those are tracked in the more conventional method.

This also sheds light on why some games are more important than others:

- A cross-conference game (East vs West) is just about trying not to lose ppts
- An inter-conference game (divisional or otherwise) is about trying to make someone in your conference or division lose ppts. Remember, it doesn't matter how you win the game because all wins are worth 0ppts no mater how they happen, but winning in regulation gives your opponent -2ppts vs winning in OT/SO (-1ppts).

So... having said all that, here are some interesting notes about Calgary's final 12 games:

- Three games are against teams we are chasing for a playoff spot (VAN, VGK, EDM). These are the most important games, as they are the only ones that allow us to remove points against teams ahead of us in the playoff race. These are literally the only remaining chances we have this season to impact teams we're chasing as a direct result of something we do.

- Two games are against a team that is behind us in the playoff race (WPG). These two games are the next important, as removing ppts from WPG makes it harder for them to catch us.

- Two games are against teams in our conference who are (currently) out of the playoff race. These games are important to us because taking ppts away from them makes it harder for them to enter the race. These game are most important to teams behind us the race though, as it really helps them more than us.

- Five of our games are against Eastern teams. These games are the base-level of importance, in that every single game we play has an inherent value in not losing ppts.

As mentioned in earlier posts, we also lose the first 2-3 tiebreakers against every other team currently in the Western playoff race, which just puts even more pressure on the baseline value of not losing any more ppts this season.

[dino7c]

Win 7 games and you make it

[IamNotKenKing]

The Flames are one point away from being 10th right now. There are three teams a point behind the Flames all tied with 78 points. Ending the season tied with a team or two is a fairly likely scenario based on how close teams are right now.

I think this is a little simplistic, as it suggests one team getting one point puts us out, when we are actually 3 x 1 point from being 10th, and one of those teams MUST be Vancouver.
Meaning, 1st Vancouver has to get one point, then both Nashville and Winnipeg must get one point.
And once Winnipeg gets their one point, we must also lose, due to games played...

Certainly possible, but as many others have said, every team is precarious right now.

[The Cobra]

It seems to me highly unlikely that every team in the mix is going to pass the Flames on the strength of tie-breakers. The reality is that all of them have very little margin for error.

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It might seem highly unlikely, but in reality, it’s a virtual certainty.


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[FanIn80]

https://i.postimg.cc/y8VjH3R3/playoffs.png

Updated. Now includes total current wins and w%.

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games
fasten your seatbelts, it is going to be wild from here on in!

Jets, Bhawks, and Blueswon in regulation
Avs won in overtime
Oilers lost in regulation


1. St. Louis (71--42-19-10) 33 RW, 94 pts--1st in the Western Conference and Central Division and 3rd overall
2. Colorado (70--41-20-8) 37 RW, 92 pts--second in the Central Division
3. Las Vegas (71--39-24-8) 30 RW, 86 pts--first in the Pacific Division
4. Edmonton (71--37-25-9) 31 RW, 83 pts--second in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (68--37-23-8) 26 RW, 82 pts--third in the Central Division
6. Winnipeg (71--37-28-6) 30 RW, 80 pts--fourth in the Central Division
7. Calgary (70--36-27-7) 25 RW, 79 pts--third in the Pacific Division
8. Nashville (69--35-26-8) 28 RW, 78 pts--fifth in the Central Division
__________________________________________________

Vancouver (69--36-27-6) 27 RW, 78 pts--fourth in the Pacific Division
Minnesota (69--35-27-7) 30 RW, 77 pts--sixth in the Central Division
Arizona (70--33-29-8) 26 RW, 74 pts--fifth in the Pacific Division
Chicago (70--32-30-8) 23 RW, 72 pts--seventh in the Central Division


The number of games played are first and in bold.