Coronavirus and sports

[GullFoss]

If Coronavirus epidemic becomes a realty, what happens to the NHL and people who have tickets?

Options:
1) no impact
2) teams play in front of empty stadiums
3) regular games and playoffs are cancelled

If option 2 or 3, what happens to those who have tickets? Would they get refunds or do they lose their money?

Do you think the NHL will release a policy on this with season ticket renewals and playoff tickets?

From Wikipedia: The 1919 Stanley Cup Finals was the ice hockey play-off series to determine the 1919 Stanley Cup champions. No champion was declared; the series was canceled after five games had been played due to an outbreak of Spanish flu. It was the only time in the history of the Stanley Cup that it was not awarded due to a no-decision after playoffs were held

[iloveicedhockey]

Just to correct one thing, it's already an epidemic and various governments and organizations are currently fighting to stop it from becoming a pandemic. Once that happens, it essentially means that they can't contain it and travel bans wouldn't accomplish anything.

I can certainly foresee a set number of games being cancelled and a shortened season, though that depends on how Canada and the US deal with keeping it under wraps. Italian soccer has been postponed for three weeks already, as has the Italy Ireland rugby game next weekend. These are efforts to contain the virus. If it gets out of control then I would guess there's a chance it would just be up to the individual as to whether they want to risk going to a game.

I would imagine refunds would have to be issued if they made the decision to cancel games. That or rearranged games.

[Manhattanboy]

Option 3 definitely comes into play if the Oilers somehow fake their way to the finals.

[shadowlord]

Option 3 definitely comes into play if the Oilers somehow fake their way to the finals.You have to remember that McDavid is particularly vulnerable to the flu. As I recall, he had for nearly 10 weeks 2 seasons ago.

As a result, the Oilers would opt to play in an empty stadium in order to protect that delicate immune system. It's also the only surefire way to prevent jerseys from hitting the ice.

[It's a great day 4 hockey]

The Saddledome has been dealing with a strain of the Coronavirus for decades; heroin beer. :p

[Passe La Puck]

That’s the molsonvirus!

[Puppet Guy]

The Saddledome has been dealing with a strain of the Coronavirus for decades; heroin beer. :p


That's probably the vaccine for Coronavirus.

[FlamingHomer]

A few years back the Panama baseball championship final was played in an empty stadium during the SARS outbreak.

[CaptainCrunch]

If it became that serious and wide spread, the decision would be taken out of the leagues hands, kind of like after 9/11.


Also if it became that serious, one of the things in the states would be if the government declared a long term stop to interstate travel.


I doubt it gets to that point, but its interesting as an exercise.

[Badgers Nose]

A few years back the Panama baseball championship final was played in an empty stadium during the SARS outbreak.

This weekend’s Northern Italian soccer games will probably be played in empty stadiums. With the Euros this summer there is no time after the season ends to make up last week’s missed games.

If it becomes a pandemic, the crowds at games will take care of themselves. High risk people probably smart enough to avoid 20,000 people that are already germ spreaders at the best of times.

[Badgers Nose]

If it became that serious and wide spread, the decision would be taken out of the leagues hands, kind of like after 9/11.


Also if it became that serious, one of the things in the states would be if the government declared a long term stop to interstate travel.


I doubt it gets to that point, but its interesting as an exercise.

9/11? Calm down. Lets start with how SARS was handled, which is more lethal virus than Covid19.

[pepper24]

Cornavirus is a crock and scare tactic. It's just another flu bug and fatalities are same older demographic or people with compromised immune systems that would be dying from the typical flu. News conveniently never reveals age or prior health condition of victims.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Cornavirus is a crock and scare tactic. It's just another flu bug and fatalities are same older demographic or people with compromised immune systems that would be dying from the typical flu. News conveniently never reveals age or prior health condition of victims.

Hahaha...what in the actual ####? Someone's been watching Info Wars again. :whistle:

[pepper24]

Hahaha...what in the actual ####? Someone's been watching Info Wars again. :whistle:

No, not all. Just saying it's another flu type and not something to be overly worried about. I would hate to get it but like the majority who recover would do the same. Getting the flu sucks as well but you eventually recover. Normal flu kills more people.

[shotinthebacklund]

Lets wait and see what happens when the virus data available is not coming from china. True data from Japan and italy will likely be available in a week as the incubation period progresses.

As far as the NHL, I would think we are a ways off of concerns regarding it affecting major north American lives. Hopefully these are concerns we wont even have to entertain.

[Looch City]

Coronavirus is a crock and scare tactic created by the National Hockey League overlords in partnership with the Democratic Party of the United States of America to help conjure the downfall of the greatest professional sports team in existence today, the Edmonton Oilers.

[kingkahuna]

Wasn’t it created by the CIA?

[Bill Bumface]

No, not all. Just saying it's another flu type and not something to be overly worried about. I would hate to get it but like the majority who recover would do the same. Getting the flu sucks as well but you eventually recover. Normal flu kills more people.

Do you have any idea what would happen if 20% of people that had the flu required hospitalization? and if >10% of those needed ICU care?

[pepper24]

Lets wait and see what happens when the virus data available is not coming from china. True data from Japan and italy will likely be available in a week as the incubation period progresses.

As far as the NHL, I would think we are a ways off of concerns regarding it affecting major north American lives. Hopefully these are concerns we wont even have to entertain.

In Italy the 4 deaths have been aged 78, 77, 68, 84. Not sure if they had prior health issues as well.

[robbie111]

Wasn’t it created by the CIA?




No it was created in the lab in Winnipeg and smuggled to China where it escaped into the population....geeeeezzzz get your conspiracy theories right.

[Split98]

Cornavirus is a crock and scare tactic. It's just another flu bug and fatalities are same older demographic or people with compromised immune systems that would be dying from the typical flu. News conveniently never reveals age or prior health condition of victims.

Honest question: How much research have you put into your opinion?

[dino7c]

Flames up 3-0 in the final and the playoffs cancelled

[Nage Waza]

In Italy the 4 deaths have been aged 78, 77, 68, 84. Not sure if they had prior health issues as well.

And so? This is not the flu, it is something different and highly contagious...if unchecked, it can shut down an entire region and overwhelm hospitals.

On top of that, I don't know if it can mutate and become something worse, but they are now proving that you do not build an immunity to it, and can catch it again...or it repeats on it's own inside you.

What do you think about vaccinations and immunizations in general?

[iloveicedhockey]

But it's a new virus, on top of the flu. If they can keep a handle on it, billions of dollars will be saved and millions of lives. If they can't contain it then yes cold and flu season becomes cold, flu and covid season but when 1-2% is applied to millions/billions of people, those are deaths every year that haven't happened before. Your argument seems to be its a crock but if it's not, that it's ok because old people will die and you aren't old. Christ.

[Itse]

But it's a new virus, on top of the flu. If they can keep a handle on it, billions of dollars will be saved and millions of lives. If they can't contain it then yes cold and flu season becomes cold, flu and covoid season but when 1-2% is applied to millions/billions of people, those are deaths every year that haven't happened before. Your argument seems to be its a crock but if it's not, that it's ok because old people will die and you aren't old. Christ.

Containment seems unrealistic. History has shown that even if a country cuts off all international travel, that will only add some extra months, and people are too stupid/lazy to wash their hands properly regardless of how worried they are. The latest predictions I've seen have about 40%-70% of world population catching it. Of course most people get only mild symptoms and never realize it was corona.

What they're doing is buying time and hoping someone can develop a vaccine fast enough to make a difference this season. Plus slowing the spread of the disease helps countries prepare and stops the epidemic from blowing up everywhere at once, which would create medication shortages.

The consensus prediction at this point is also that this WILL become a new seasonal epidemic. However, it's unlikely to be as deadly or as contagious next season, as people will have at least partial immunity.

What I'm personally worried about is that I have tickets to Flames@Rangers and Flames@Islanders about three weeks from now. First time I'd get to see the Flames live, a dream I've had for over a decade, one that I thought would never happen because it's a rather extreme financial commitment for someone with my income...

If there's a travel restriction or the games are cancelled, I'm seriously going to lose it.

[GullFoss]

Cases have gone from 1000 to 80,000 in the past 4-6 weeks. And that's with containment policies in place. It's plausible exponential growth continues...that's 80,000% growth. Extrapolation gets you to as many as 7,000,000 infected a month from now and a world wide epidemic at the end of April. Even if the rate slows markedly, it delays an arguably inevitable outcome only 2-4 months.

The financial markets are catching on about a week late...

[GioforPM]

Don't worry folks. Mike Pence is on it.

[iloveicedhockey]

That's why I'm keeping up to date with it too; flying to Croatia in 3 weeks to see the ladyfriend.

I'm not sure if they could realistically get a vaccine out quick enough due to the amount of testing required, though things have been incredibly quick on the vaccinedevelopment side of things, relative to any other time in history. Would obviously be happy to be proved wrong if they can get something out to high risk people.

[Saqe]

Keep playing, we're all dead anyway.

[GioforPM]

That's why I'm keeping up to date with it too; flying to Croatia in 3 weeks to see the ladyfriend.

I'm not sure if they could realistically get a vaccine out quick enough due to the amount of testing required, though things have been incredibly quick on the vaccinedevelopment side of things, relative to any other time in history. Would obviously be happy to be proved wrong if they can get something out to high risk people.

I'm on a trans atlantic cruise from Fla to Barcelona next week. I'm assuming it's a go. There's only one case in Spain IIRC.

[Itse]

That's why I'm keeping up to date with it too; flying to Croatia in 3 weeks to see the ladyfriend.

I'm not sure if they could realistically get a vaccine out quick enough due to the amount of testing required, though things have been incredibly quick on the vaccinedevelopment side of things, relative to any other time in history. Would obviously be happy to be proved wrong if they can get something out to high risk people.

There's been a big push to find faster ways to develop vaccines since SARS (which was also a coronavirus). From what I've read, it's unlikely that a vaccine might make it in time to really save the day, but it might come in time to help in the later stages of the pandemic. Obviously depending on lots of variables. For comparison the swine flu pandemic lasted about two years, and vaccine might be in production about a year from now.

In the meantime, wash your hands people, and cough in your sleeve.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Herion beer infused with Pastor Jim Bakker's Miracle Silver Solution should nix the issue.

[Flash Walken]

Herion beer infused with Pastor Jim Bakker's Miracle Silver Solution should nix the issue.

https://media.giphy.com/media/fGbiBpOamQqpa/giphy.gif

[Nage Waza]

Herion beer infused with Pastor Jim Bakker's Miracle Silver Solution should nix the issue.

I believe the nacho cheese has some medicinal properties as well.

[Daniel-J]

It's a lot of money and no one will give it up. It is possible if there will be problems replacing players, but I do not think there will be a great chance to cancel the matches.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Switzerland has just banned public gatherings of more than 1000 people until mid-March. I did not know this, but the Swiss National League outdraws even the KHL with average attendances around 7000.

[jayswin]

It's a lot of money and no one will give it up. It is possible if there will be problems replacing players, but I do not think there will be a great chance to cancel the matches.

But that's not what's happening in countries that are affected, why do you think we'd be different here? Matches are generally either cancelled or played to empty stadiums, either way meaning no revenue.

Also, it isn't going to be up to the leagues if Canada/US decide that sports matches are part of a quarantine effort.

[GordonBlue]

Anyone checked their season ticket contracts? maybe a clause referencing no refunds due to natural disaster or something like that?

[Tsawwassen]

It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.OA_CndlBu0g

[Yrebmi]

For the little it's worth I have also heard it's a form of the flu. My source a co worker who directly asked his doctor.
Admittedly not concrete sources.

[nfotiu]

In Italy the 4 deaths have been aged 78, 77, 68, 84. Not sure if they had prior health issues as well.

17 deaths out of 650 cases. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month

2.6% death rate is much scarier than the flu.

[FlamesFanTrev]

cases have gone from 1000 to 80,000 in the past 4-6 weeks. And that's with containment policies in place. It's plausible exponential growth continues...that's 80,000% growth. Extrapolation gets you to as many as 7,000,000 infected a month from now and a world wide epidemic at the end of april. Even if the rate slows markedly, it delays an arguably inevitable outcome only 2-4 months.

The financial markets are catching on about a week late...

80,000/1000= 80,000%

[Cowboy89]

17 deaths out of 650 cases. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month

2.6% death rate is much scarier than the flu.

Although, yes, appears much scarier than the flu, however, at this point it's too preliminary to hang your hat on fatality rate numbers. For practical reasons Italy stopped testing contacts of cases and only are testing people who show up with symptoms. Therefore in their situation, the numerator is most definitely understated while the denominator is tracked with almost perfect accuracy. Just something to think about.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Quote:
Originally Posted by gullfoss View Post
cases have gone from 1000 to 80,000 in the past 4-6 weeks. And that's with containment policies in place. It's plausible exponential growth continues...that's 80,000% growth. Extrapolation gets you to as many as 7,000,000 infected a month from now and a world wide epidemic at the end of april. Even if the rate slows markedly, it delays an arguably inevitable outcome only 2-4 months.

The financial markets are catching on about a week late...

80,000/1000= 80,000%

Thought that would be 7,900% ?

80,000 minus 1,000 divided by 1000 X 100%

[GullFoss]

Inter Milan is playing major games in an empty stadium!!

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/02/28/juventus-inter-milan-empty-stadium-coronavirus-italy

[Rando]

Inter Milan is playing major games in an empty stadium!!

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/02/28/juventus-inter-milan-empty-stadium-coronavirus-italy

So are the Panthers

[shogged]

id probably just enjoy the super cheap tickets assuming they don't cancel the games lol

[djsFlames]

C of Red hazmat suits.

[Resolute 14]

> Be the Oilers
> Finally make the playoffs
> Fans not allowed to attend
> Eliminated first round
> Bans lifted in time for second round
> Flames win the Cup
> FML

[Flash Walken]

Cap crunch coming as HRR is likely to fall.

[Resolute 14]

Cap crunch coming as HRR is likely to fall.

Maybe. But you're dancing on the edge of a different - but related - problem.

If this burns out over the next six months, then the owners and players might assume HRR will rebound for 2020-21 and leave the cap alone. But, if the pandemic forces empty arenas or cancellations later this season, then HRR falling now will cause a big escrow clawback. Which could have major impacts on CBA negotiations.

[FlamingHabs Fan]

It will be interesting to see if this vaccine works.
I believe this tech was developed after SARS, if it works it could be a major move forward in fighting infectious diseases.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

[Itse]

It will be interesting to see if this vaccine works.
I believe this tech was developed after SARS, if it works it could be a major move forward in fighting infectious diseases.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

There's at least three vaccines in the works with the same estimate of 12-18 months until production.

[Boreal]

https://www.tsn.ca/iihf-cancels-march-tournaments-1.1451453

IIHF March tournaments cancelled.

[GullFoss]

Article in Athletic about NHL and coronavirus: https://theathletic.com/1649048/2020/03/02/how-the-spreading-coronavirus-is-impacting-the-nhl?source=shared-article

[rhino]

Or who cares..... this thing is being made a bigger deal then necessary. Because it’s out of China there is a certain fear factor applied. This is not Ebola for crying out loud.

[Snuffleupagus]

Or who cares..... this thing is being made a bigger deal then necessary. Because it’s out of China there is a certain fear factor applied. This is not Ebola for crying out loud.
You're right Ebola killed 1 in 3 but it's transmitted via direct contact with blood or bodily fluids, Corona is transmitted like the flu but has a longer incubation period and a 200x fatality rate. Yeah, it's nothing to fear :blink:

[GordonBlue]

Or who cares..... this thing is being made a bigger deal then necessary. Because it’s out of China there is a certain fear factor applied. This is not Ebola for crying out loud.

Or maybe the fear factor is the virus is still pretty unknown, and it's infected 10's of thousands while killing thousands, and the spread hasn't been contained.
ebola is fairly easy to stop. this isn't.

are you just being willfully ignorant?

Shouldn't be too long before this hits and NHL city as it's now spreading in the states.
I can't see games being cancelled, but perhaps played in empty arenas if it his hard here.

[nfotiu]

Or maybe the fear factor is the virus is still pretty unknown, and it's infected 10's of thousands while killing thousands, and the spread hasn't been contained.
ebola is fairly easy to stop. this isn't.

are you just being willfully ignorant?

Shouldn't be too long before this hits and NHL city as it's now spreading in the states.
I can't see games being cancelled, but perhaps played in empty arenas if it his hard here.

It will be interesting to see how it is handled here. Some of the Italian soccer games cancelled are much bigger events in terms of money/tv at stake than any NHL game would be. Why would they cancel and the NHL not?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Or who cares..... this thing is being made a bigger deal then necessary. Because it’s out of China there is a certain fear factor applied. This is not Ebola for crying out loud.

If you think Ebola is a pandemic concern for North America, you need to do more research on viruses or just listen to the experts.

“This isn’t Ebola”. Oh you mean the virus I have a less chance of getting than winning the lottery by being someone who isn’t a health care provider, in North America.

[Itse]

It will be interesting to see how it is handled here. Some of the Italian soccer games cancelled are much bigger events in terms of money/tv at stake than any NHL game would be. Why would they cancel and the NHL not?

I don't think they actually canceled games. Now, I'm not at all sure if I've understood it correctly, but...

Originally they were supposed to play some games in empty stadiums, but this got so much backlash from fans that the games were postponed instead. So essentially they got postponed because they were too big to not let the audience in.

This seems like an unlikely thing to happen for the NHL, as the NHL plays so many games per year that moving a whole portion of them around is likely not worth the effort or feasible.

[GGG]

You're right Ebola killed 1 in 3 but it's transmitted via direct contact with blood or bodily fluids, Corona is transmitted like the flu but has a longer incubation period and a 200x fatality rate. Yeah, it's nothing to fear :blink:

20x fatality rate. Fatality rate from flu is .1%.

The thing is with this Virus we will do more to try to limit infection so you likely don’t have 10% of the pop getting it every year. That also means they will Cancel large events like NHL games which you wouldn’t for the Flu.

The other scary part of this is the percent of cases that need ICU care is about 10% at this point. Even assuming under diagnosis is a factor of 10 that would be 1% of cases needing the ICU which would very quickly overwhelm the system. Once you don’t have ICU beds the death rate goes up further.

Chinese and South Korean containment measures appear to be working.

So I would expect cancelation / empty stadium games. Given the severity of the outbreak in Washington I’d expect Vancouver to be the first NHL city hit with this decision.

[GullFoss]

1235700922430316544

I talked to my season ticket holder rep and he said a policy with tickets and coronavirus hasn't even been discussed internally. That sounds rediculous to me.


I skeptical side thinks that as soon as ticket renewal period is over, we'll hear about what might happen if this gets bad in the playoffs. Because the entire perk of access to playoff tickets might be a moot point this year if the games are played in empty stadiums

[Weitz]

1235700922430316544

I talked to my season ticket holder rep and he said a policy with tickets and coronavirus hasn't even been discussed internally. That sounds rediculous to me.


I skeptical side thinks that as soon as ticket renewal period is over, we'll hear about what might happen if this gets bad in the playoffs. Because the entire perk of access to playoff tickets might be a moot point this year if the games are played in empty stadiums

I imagine the NHL won't cancel games unless forced to by government. They won't want to refund money.

[Reggie Dunlop]

The NBA is preparing contingency plans.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1236217029587279874

[ricardodw]

20x fatality rate. Fatality rate from flu is .1%.

The thing is with this Virus we will do more to try to limit infection so you likely don’t have 10% of the pop getting it every year. That also means they will Cancel large events like NHL games which you wouldn’t for the Flu.

The other scary part of this is the percent of cases that need ICU care is about 10% at this point. Even assuming under diagnosis is a factor of 10 that would be 1% of cases needing the ICU which would very quickly overwhelm the system. Once you don’t have ICU beds the death rate goes up further.

Chinese and South Korean containment measures appear to be working.

So I would expect cancelation / empty stadium games. Given the severity of the outbreak in Washington I’d expect Vancouver to be the first NHL city hit with this decision.

who do you report that you have the flu? How many people call their doctor when they throw up and run a fever for a couple of days? Does their Doctor track and report patients with the flu? Does it go on your medical record ?

Have you ever had the flu? Have you said you have the flu when you have a hangover or want to skip out of work for a few days.


How do they do these counts?

[Kasi]

Yeah this rate is made of a numerator and denominator. The numerator is quite clearly tracked since deaths is a fairly severe outcome. I’d not be surprised if the denominator is completely inaccurate here. It’s possible a million people have been exposed rather than 100k and that would make the rate a lot less scary.

[Mayo]

Yeah this rate is made of a numerator and denominator. The numerator is quite clearly tracked since deaths is a fairly severe outcome. I’d not be surprised if the denominator is completely inaccurate here. It’s possible a million people have been exposed rather than 100k and that would make the rate a lot less scary.

Agreed

I hope they don't cancel games - coronavirus appears to be so blown out of proportion - I am probably more likely to die driving to the game

High risk people need to be responsible and take care of themselves (limit contact w/ ppl - washing hands etc etc)

[PeteMoss]

Agreed

I hope they don't cancel games - coronavirus appears to be so blown out of proportion - I am probably more likely to die driving to the game

High risk people need to be responsible and take care of themselves (limit contact w/ ppl - washing hands etc etc)

The point of all of this is to prevent an outbreak like they have in Italy and South Korea and then spread it to the higher risk people (although its not like just high risk people have died from this) who then spread it to more people. Its not because you - one guy on the internet - might catch it.

[GullFoss]

The NCAA is making contingencies for March Madness to be played in empty stadiums...

March Madness Will Go On, but in a Worst Case, Without Mad Fans https://www.wsj.com/articles/march-madness-will-go-on-but-in-a-worst-case-without-mad-fans-11583599569

[PeteMoss]

Women's World Hockey Championship to be cancelled. Was going to be in Nova Scotia.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/iihf-cancels-womens-world-hockey-championship-amid-coronavirus-concerns/

[Aarongavey]

Empty stadiums seems like the responsible thing to do at this point, internet doctors opinions aside.

[GullFoss]

I imagine the NHL won't cancel games unless forced to by government. They won't want to refund money.

Social distancing is going to be a major strategy in dealing with coronavirus. I would be appalled if governments didn't make this decision when community spread became obvious.

[Aarongavey]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-close-dressing-rooms-media-amid-mounting-coronavirus-concerns/

NHL is closing locker rooms to media, all media interactions will take place via press conference due to coronavirus concerns.

[Press Level]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-close-dressing-rooms-media-amid-mounting-coronavirus-concerns/

NHL is closing locker rooms to media, all media interactions will take place via press conference due to coronavirus concerns.


Probably a good plan. Spector strikes me as one of those guys who doesn't wash his hands.

[dieHARDflameZ]

Lol this is getting stupid.

[Gaudfather]

The NBA is preparing contingency plans.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1236217029587279874

Lebron has said "if no fans I'm not playing" so could make for an interesting dynamic within the NBA.

https://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/story/2020-03-07/lebron-james-on-games-without-spectators-i-aint-playing

[CSharp]

Or maybe the fear factor is the virus is still pretty unknown, and it's infected 10's of thousands while killing thousands, and the spread hasn't been contained.
ebola is fairly easy to stop. this isn't.

are you just being willfully ignorant?

Shouldn't be too long before this hits and NHL city as it's now spreading in the states.
I can't see games being cancelled, but perhaps played in empty arenas if it his hard here.

I don't think rhino is being ignorant. I think the Coronavirus or COVID-19 is just a bit blown out of proportions by the media as another "Shock-and-Awe" to get the everyone all riled up and running with at least some fear or with some emotions. Although this virus is quite virulent and spreads fast, I don't think the majority of the populations in this world needs to push the panic button. As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus. A bonus to catching a virus and living through it is that you'll be immune to the virus after your body recovers from the illness.

It's ridiculous for people to go out to Costco and buy out all the toilet papers and bottled water! Seriously, I actually saw people getting mostly those two things when I went to replenish my pop stash. Talk about people freaking out for nothing! My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

[PeteMoss]

I don't think rhino is being ignorant. I think the Coronavirus or COVID-19 is just a bit blown out of proportions by the media as another "Shock-and-Awe" to get the everyone all riled up and running with at least some fear or with some emotions. Although this virus is quite virulent and spreads fast, I don't think the majority of the populations in this world needs to push the panic button. As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus. A bonus to catching a virus and living through it is that you'll be immune to the virus after your body recovers from the illness.

It's ridiculous for people to go out to Costco and buy out all the toilet papers and bottled water! Seriously, I actually saw people getting mostly those two things when I went to replenish my pop stash. Talk about people freaking out for nothing! My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

I agree on the toilet paper and water stuff.

But any of restrictions are for the larger community as a whole. Not just for you who is at a low risk of serious illness or death. Yes you can get it and be fine, but then you give it to 5 other people and 2 of them are old or diabetic and don't survive.

[transplant99]

Lol this is getting stupid.

How is this prevention measure "stupid"? Makes sense to me.

Its just an easy way to prevent face to face contact in a closed setting while still allowing the media to do their jobs in a press conference setting rather than in a locker room. Those rooms are pretty famous for spreading viruses if they ever get in.

This is just a measured and simple step for prevention that really inconveniences no one to any degree.

[chemgear]

I don't think rhino is being ignorant. I think the Coronavirus or COVID-19 is just a bit blown out of proportions by the media as another "Shock-and-Awe" to get the everyone all riled up and running with at least some fear or with some emotions. Although this virus is quite virulent and spreads fast, I don't think the majority of the populations in this world needs to push the panic button. As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus. A bonus to catching a virus and living through it is that you'll be immune to the virus after your body recovers from the illness.

It's ridiculous for people to go out to Costco and buy out all the toilet papers and bottled water! Seriously, I actually saw people getting mostly those two things when I went to replenish my pop stash. Talk about people freaking out for nothing! My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

I agree on the toilet paper and water stuff.


Also agree with the toilet paper.

If you don't have any parents, grand parents, uncles or aunts or care about anybody that are over 50. Or don't care about people who do have loved ones over 50. Then you're good. Otherwise:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESY3wc1XkAEGc8d?format=png&name=900x900

And this chart is under representing what it does to older people. More recent figures show it is about 50 to 100% (half again or double) the case fatality rate of 2.3% to about 3.4% (some countries are showing 4ish for now).

Italy also just put 16 million people under lockdown. Seattle and now BC have a nursing home that is going to be a good example of what will be happening in the next few weeks.

EDIT: There is a thread in the Off-Topic portion as well. Don't want to repeat it all but obviously will have some cross talk.

[Caged Great]

Exactly. I know if I get it, I'll probably be a okay as I've never smoked and am in decent shape. However, my only co-worker is in her 60s and is a former smoker. If she gets it, she might die. I dont want that so I am trying my best to stay safe. Even if it is a bit of an overreaction, i would obviously rather continue to have that person in my life than not.

[Robo]

Am I reading that chart wrong or is it only 1.3 percent of people between 50 to 60 that get that virus are dying?the way people are talking if your over 50 and get this you dead

[Mitt31]

I have heard a rumor (and its just a rumor) that in a year over 50% of the earths population will have the Covid-19 virus.

Haven't heard of a projected death rate or recovery rate

Take it for what it is and stay safe all.

Cheers

[Kasi]

In over a year there will be vaccines to it as well. (Probably in less than a year)

[chemgear]

In over a year there will be vaccines to it as well. (Probably in less than a year)

"Probably" not.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-trump-vaccine-rhetoric-121796

“So you’re talking over the next few months, you think you could have a vaccine?” Trump asked during a meeting with top health officials on Monday.

“You won’t have a vaccine,” corrected Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar after some cross talk. “You’ll have a vaccine to go into testing.”

“All right, so you’re talking within a year,” Trump said moments later.

“A year to a year and a half,” interjected Anthony Fauci, a government veteran of disease outbreaks under six presidents.

[DMac]

Inter Milan is playing major games in an empty stadium!!

https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/02/28/juventus-inter-milan-empty-stadium-coronavirus-italy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqUZUxV1BuQ&feature=onebox

Wow - actually pretty cool hearing the players communicate. Tho not sure it is truly 'football' without 35,000 ppl chanting "you dirty northern bastards!" all match long. Perhaps one we should adopt at the 'dome a few nights a year (the chant that is).

In case example would be helpful:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3MnSHIX6xM

[Itse]

I have heard a rumor (and its just a rumor) that in a year over 50% of the earths population will have the Covid-19 virus.

Haven't heard of a projected death rate or recovery rate

Take it for what it is and stay safe all.

Cheers

It's not a rumour, it's a prediction that many epidemiologists believe in.

40-70% of world population will have had it by the end of the year, and it's likely to become a yearly epidemic.

[GullFoss]

France has also banned events greater than 1000 people, which Germany and Austria expected to soon follow.

Given that north America looks to be about 2-3 weeks behind the European experience, we can probably expect the entire playoffs to be played in empty stadiums.

[Manhattanboy]

If that’s the case then just cancel. That would be no fun at all.

[GGG]

If that’s the case then just cancel. That would be no fun at all.

Then they’d have to give back the TV money. You limit losses by playing in empty stadiums. But with the NHL being so gate heavy it might not work as well as soccer or the NBA

[jayswin]

If that’s the case then just cancel. That would be no fun at all.

Not a chance. Their options are to lose ticket revenue or lose ticket revenue AND TV money? C'mon, you know they won't do that.

[jayswin]

Agreed

I hope they don't cancel games - coronavirus appears to be so blown out of proportion - I am probably more likely to die driving to the game

High risk people need to be responsible and take care of themselves (limit contact w/ ppl - washing hands etc etc)

I don't think rhino is being ignorant. I think the Coronavirus or COVID-19 is just a bit blown out of proportions by the media as another "Shock-and-Awe" to get the everyone all riled up and running with at least some fear or with some emotions. Although this virus is quite virulent and spreads fast, I don't think the majority of the populations in this world needs to push the panic button. As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus. A bonus to catching a virus and living through it is that you'll be immune to the virus after your body recovers from the illness.

It's ridiculous for people to go out to Costco and buy out all the toilet papers and bottled water! Seriously, I actually saw people getting mostly those two things when I went to replenish my pop stash. Talk about people freaking out for nothing! My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

These are pretty arrogant. The prevention is to stop 50+ year olds and people with compromised immune systems from dying due to widespread contraction. Do you guys not have parents or know anyone over 50? And even if you don't, your prerogative should be to help save the lives of strangers in those high risk groups.

What frustrating, selfish responses.

[Weitz]

Not a chance. Their options are to lose ticket revenue or lose ticket revenue AND TV money? C'mon, you know they won't do that.

There is probably some sort of force majeure in the tv deals if the government shuts down the spectators. I can’t see the nhl and some teams lasting long without the gate.

Which leads me to believe unless forced they won’t stop spectators from attending.

[jayswin]

There is probably some sort of force majeure in the tv deals if the government shuts down the spectators. I can’t see the nhl and some teams lasting long without the gate.

Which leads me to believe unless forced they won’t stop spectators from attending.

I could be wrong, but I'd highly doubt there would be anything negotiated in any major sport contract with networks that would force losses on TV networks due to world events cancelling in arena attendance.

[Bunk]

It's not a rumour, it's a prediction that many epidemiologists believe in.

40-70% of world population will have had it by the end of the year, and it's likely to become a yearly epidemic.

It’s been in China for about 3-4 months and what percentage of that country has contracted it? A fraction of 1 percent. Now obviously their containment efforts have been extreme, but similar things are happening in places like Italy too. It’s really hard to predict.

[Oil Stain]

There is probably some sort of force majeure in the tv deals if the government shuts down the spectators. I can’t see the nhl and some teams lasting long without the gate.

Which leads me to believe unless forced they won’t stop spectators from attending.

Well the good news is that the regular season is nearly over so no salaries will have to be paid. The NHL would miss out on profits by only televising the playoffs, but they missed out on a whole year of profits in 2005 and survived just fine so I think the billionaires will live through this one too.

[Weitz]

Well the good news is that the regular season is nearly over so no salaries will have to be paid. The NHL would miss out on profits by only televising the playoffs, but they missed out on a whole year of profits in 2005 and survived just fine so I think the billionaires will live through this one too.

It’s different paying no one and paying the players and all related support staff and not getting the gate.

But you are right they don’t have salaries in the post season.

[Press Level]

I wonder how much this would (will) affect Hockey Related Revenues for the purpose calculating next year's cap?

[CaptainCrunch]

It would be awesome if the Oilers in a rare season are close to the playoffs and the season is cancelled out due to Corona Virus. Their lucky fluky season ends and next year they go back to what they should be a 80 point team.

[Kidder]

Might as well go full Expos in that case.

Return to futility and relocate the franchise a decade later.

[Itse]

It would be awesome if the Oilers in a rare season are close to the playoffs and the season is cancelled out due to Corona Virus. Their lucky fluky season ends and next year they go back to what they should be a 80 point team.

They're not going to cancel the games. Sponsors have paid money for those ads, and if public events start getting canceled and people stay home, they'll want something to watch on TV.

[GreenLantern]

Could they not still play the games in an empty stadium? At least then we could watch on TV?

Sorry if this has already been discussed I glazed over a lot of this thread.

[Itse]

Could they not still play the games in an empty stadium? At least then we could watch on TV?

Sorry if this has already been discussed I glazed over a lot of this thread.

Yeah that's what's mostly been going on in the world, playing in empty stadiums. There's really no benefit to completely canceling the games.

[Jiri Hrdina]

An x-factor is if it starts to go through a team. I'm not sure how that would be handled.

[rohara66]

Bold guess.... there will be empty stadium NHL games this season. It’s happening.

[tvp2003]

Bold guess.... there will be empty stadium NHL games this season. It’s happening.
Possibility of the first playoff BOA in almost 30 years... and nobody in the stands to watch it :boom:

[zarrell]

If there's no fans do the owners want to pony up the cash to make this happen? Do the players want to play for a Stanley Cup if there's no fans? I see the playoffs just getting completely cancelled at that point.

[djsFlames]

Possibility of the first playoff BOA in almost 30 years... and nobody in the stands to watch it :boom:

Somebody better get started on life-like robotic surrogates that we can operate through a VR experience from our recliners.

Also cue epic massive fist fights breaking out between said Oiler and Flame surrogates.

Could be even more fun.

[djsFlames]

If there's no fans do the owners want to pony up the cash to make this happen? Do the players want to play for a Stanley Cup if there's no fans? I see the playoffs just getting completely cancelled at that point.

So if one or two rounds in, we're at the point of fans no longer being able to attend games due to health concerns, do you then tentatively postpone the remainder of the playoffs in the fall, and begin a partial regular season around December?

Cause what's the point for owners if no one is attending your playoff games? At the same time you can't just abort the 19-20 season and the work teams have done to get to where they have.

[Dragomir]

If the playoffs are cancelled does every team get entered into the draft lottery?

[Reggie Dunlop]

1237150313347452930

[81MC]

I would way rather the playoffs get cancelled than play without attendance.

[Vansmack]

1237150313347452930

A smart first step. Teams should be introducing their own regular testing and immediately moving anyone (player or employee) into quarantine if the present with any symptoms.

[OutOfTheCube]

Bold guess.... there will be empty stadium NHL games this season. It’s happening.

At least it won't affect the Panthers too much.

[calumniate]

An x-factor is if it starts to go through a team. I'm not sure how that would be handled.

No worries. Hockey players don't tend to spit.. :d

[Reggie Dunlop]

Flames cancel all interactive fan experiences (i.e. autograph sessions). Probably all the various charity initiatives as well.

1237168326129770496

[GullFoss]

1237200171630395392

[Weitz]

Yep Santa Clara a county health department have banned all gatherings over 1000 people. Would apply to sharks games. No word from them yet.

[chummer]

1237201039914229761

[djsFlames]

So do you just cram a bunch of sharks home games into the last week, or do you play them in the scheduled opponent's rink?

[Weitz]

So do you just cram a bunch of sharks home games into the last week, or do you play them in the scheduled opponent's rink?

No fans I imagine.

[GullFoss]

1237203926161723392

[Dragomir]

So it begins.

[Gaskal]

It sounds like it will be police enforced too.

https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/03/09/santa-clara-county-health-officials-ban-gatherings-1000-confirm-first-bay-area-death-coronavirus/
Cody noted that the ban did not apply to airports or shopping malls and centers with people in transit. The ban also does not include office spaces or retail stores where it is unusual for people to be within an arm’s length of each other.

The Santa Clara County Sheriff’s Office and the individual police departments of cities in Santa Clara County will be helping to enforce the ban on gatherings of more than 1,000 people.

[GullFoss]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/09/following-first-coronavirus-death-santa-clara-county-bans-all-large-gathering/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Hoop27]

seems to be a thing.. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/09/following-first-coronavirus-death-santa-clara-county-bans-all-large-gathering/

[GullFoss]

1237206477749858304

[Strange Brew]

Looks like the other thread can be open now.

[Erick Estrada]

It's going to be weird watching games in empty arenas. Until the NHL makes a statement I wouldn't jump to any conclusions though.

[tvp2003]

Wonder if Stockton might be impacted soon as well...

[Reggie Dunlop]

Wonder if Stockton might be impacted soon as well...

I was just thinking that. Stockton is in an adjacent county.

[rohara66]

Giddy up folks!

How many more flames games do we get to attend before community spread is rampant enough in Canada.

Over/under set at 13.5 days from now... go!

[nfotiu]

Tony Robbins draws enough to play 4 straight nights in an NHL arena?? I had no idea!

[Julio]

Tony Robbins draws enough to play 4 straight nights in an NHL arena?? I had no idea!


It's one 4 day event.

[djsFlames]

Robbins does these multi day events. Its pricey af but heard it's great and worthwhile from some folks.

[Itse]

Giddy up folks!

How many more flames games do we get to attend before community spread is rampant enough in Canada.

Over/under set at 13.5 days from now... go!

The next Winnipeg game is the last in front of a live audience. Or that's my guess anyway.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Wonder if Stockton might be impacted soon as well...

Stockton says it will continue playing at this point in time.


1237259574026989570

[Tsawwassen]

I wonder why the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings are continuing on as usual with crowds at their NBA home games?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I don't think rhino is being ignorant. I think the Coronavirus or COVID-19 is just a bit blown out of proportions by the media as another "Shock-and-Awe" to get the everyone all riled up and running with at least some fear or with some emotions. Although this virus is quite virulent and spreads fast, I don't think the majority of the populations in this world needs to push the panic button. As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus. A bonus to catching a virus and living through it is that you'll be immune to the virus after your body recovers from the illness.

It's ridiculous for people to go out to Costco and buy out all the toilet papers and bottled water! Seriously, I actually saw people getting mostly those two things when I went to replenish my pop stash. Talk about people freaking out for nothing! My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.

So, like, almost everything in your post is wrong.

1. Covid19 isn’t the flu. It’s a coronavirus, akin to SARS and MERS.

2. Your coworker didn’t catch bird flu: H1N1 is the far less deadly (but still quite dangerous) swine flu. I can almost guarantee that if he thought he had a cold, he didn’t get H1N1; if you’ve ever had the flu, it’s not much like a cold. I can definitely tell you that he didn’t get Bird flu (H5N1); H5N1 has/had a colossally high fatality rate, but did not spread globally the way Covid19 is.

3. We have no idea how much immunity we will get from what may become “seasonal Covid” from being exposed once. It’s novel; one of the things that means is we don’t have much immunity to it right now. The thing about the flu is that as dangerous as it is we DO have substantial immunity to it as a population as variations of it come around every year.

4. Being young and healthy doesn’t mean you shouldn’t worry. Apart from the callous shortsightedness of that view it also ignores the knock-on effects on our health care system as a whole when the number of people who need ICU beds and intervention for ARDS (an extremely high percentage of Covid19 cases) begins to exceed the number of beds that are available.

I’m writing this post from the Children’s hospital where my son has just gone through a serious secondary infection to influenza. He is getting better now, but he needed life saving treatment in the ICU here last week. He was the definition of young and healthy—and that might have kept him safe from coronavirus, relatively, but it didn’t stop him from getting very sick from something else. In this case that something else was good old influenza A, which is still a real bitch of a virus.

Thank god an ICU bed was available, and thank god for the amazing doctors and nurses at Children’s Hospital. But what if we’d been in the midst of a coronavirus outbreak? Would the same resources have been available to him? I don’t know. I don’t like to think about it.

I’m also not particularly sympathetic to this Trumpian attitude of “it’s just the flu,” having almost had my boy taken from me by the flu. The flu is no joke.

With all of that said I do agree that buying up the bottled water and TP at Costco is stupid. But it’s not stupid to take steps to try and slow the spread of this illness. We likely can’t stop it but slowing it may allow our health care systems to be in a better position to respond and that could mean saving lives—including the lives of people who need those health care resources for things other than coronavirus.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Thank you sharing that, Iowa FF. I learned a few facts reading that.

I'm glad your son is better, and I can't imagine what you went through as a parent.

[Itse]

I recommend reading this linked thread. It should shake the nonsense out of people.

This is from Lombardia, Northern Italy. This is as first wold as it gets, a very wealthy area.

1237142891077697538

Couple of quotes:
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65, or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

This is what it looks like when the epidemic gets out of control. Medical facilities, equipment and staff just runs out. Since there's no vaccine, there's no protection for anyone. Getting corona is virtually guaranteed if you're a nurse or a doctor, it's just a question of how bad you get it.

Mortality rate for COVID-19 has already been updated from 2% to 3.4%, which is significantly higher than Spanish Flu... And that's with patients still mostly getting quality hospital treatment. If COVID-19 turns into an uncontrolled epidemic, that mortality rate is going to go up even further.

With treatment the mortality rate for 80+ is over 14%.

COVID-19 is serious business. As in, "potentially world record breaking pandemic".

[Scroopy Noopers]

As long as you're younger than 60 and don't have any respiratory or health concerns, if you get the virus, you'll live to get another strain of virus or some other flu virus.

Why does this keep getting parroted as helpful information?

[Itse]

Why does this keep getting parroted as helpful information?

Yeah I mean it can still get you into intensive care. Something fairly common like diabetes is enough to make you extra vulnerable.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Yeah I mean it can still get you into intensive care. Something fairly common like diabetes is enough to make you extra vulnerable.

That and I don’t have to be concerned about my own health to be fearful of the virus. There are plenty of people I care about who fall into the “at risk category”.

[GirlySports]

Lets just have a knockout tournament. Done in a week.

[Itse]

That and I don’t have to be concerned about my own health to be fearful of the virus. There are plenty of people I care about who fall into the “at risk category”.

My best friend has had a kidney transplant. He's been hospitalized by a seasonal flu before. COVID-19 could very well kill him. The mother of my child (and still a dear friend) has asthma. Another very good friend has a permanent heart condition. Yet another friend just mentioned in Facebook she has both asthma and diabetes.

So yeah.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

If the playoffs were played to empty arenas, what would even be the point of travel? Why not just mitigate risk (that being travel) and play all the games in neutral sites?

This would also certainly put a massive dent in HRR for this year and next I'd think. What percentage of the NHL's revenue is made in the playoffs? I would think a lot.

[DeluxeMoustache]

If the playoffs were played to empty arenas, what would even be the point of travel? Why not just mitigate risk (that being travel) and play all the games in neutral sites?

This would also certainly put a massive dent in HRR for this year and next I'd think. What percentage of the NHL's revenue is made in the playoffs? I would think a lot.


This confuses me. As all teams are located in different cities, they have to travel to play each other.

And to a neutral site, two teams travel for the game

[Lubicon]

If the playoffs were played to empty arenas, what would even be the point of travel? Why not just mitigate risk (that being travel) and play all the games in neutral sites?

This would also certainly put a massive dent in HRR for this year and next I'd think. What percentage of the NHL's revenue is made in the playoffs? I would think a lot.

Interesting concept. One neutral site for the entire league playoffs? Neutral site for eastern and western conference and then meet for finals? I guess you could do it a lot of ways.

Regarding the comment about Stockton (farm teams in general). Would be interesting to see what happens if travel is restricted and how that would affect player movement between the parent and farm team.

[tvp2003]

Lets just have a knockout tournament. Done in a week.

A less drastic option could be to change to a best-of-3 rather than a best-of-7. Might take 3 weeks.

Either way, I'm not sure I'd be in favor of awarding a Stanley Cup in either scenario -- i.e. winning an abridged tournament isn't the same as winning four best-of-7 rounds...

[Strange Brew]

This confuses me. As all teams are located in different cities, they have to travel to play each other.

And to a neutral site, two teams travel for the game

I think the poster is suggesting the teams play each other on xBox or Playstation from their own living rooms.

Or maybe a tournament style playoff at one location, or just a few vs. traveling back and forth.

[Kovaz]

Even if you're young and healthy, the hospital capacity problem is a huge deal. Very few people below 50 are dying, but a proportion of them (I've seen as high as 15%) end up needing some sort of hospital care. If we run out of hospital beds, that 15% goes from basically all recovering to a lot of deaths. That's why the preventative measures are so important - if you slow the infection rate, you reduce the peak number of people sick at the same time, and you dramatically reduce the number of people that need care to survive and can't get it

[Resolute 14]

I wonder why the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings are continuing on as usual with crowds at their NBA home games?

They are in different counties, so aren't under this same order.

[Toonage]

If the GSW are still playing, is that new arena in SF set up for hockey?

[CliffFletcher]

Even if you're young and healthy, the hospital capacity problem is a huge deal. Very few people below 50 are dying, but a proportion of them (I've seen as high as 15%) end up needing some sort of hospital care. If we run out of hospital beds, that 15% goes from basically all recovering to a lot of deaths. That's why the preventative measures are so important - if you slow the infection rate, you reduce the peak number of people sick at the same time, and you dramatically reduce the number of people that need care to survive and can't get it

Even beyond those who need care for Covid 19, everyone's health will be at risk when the health care system gets swamped. Alberta hospitals routinely run at capacity already, with long wait times and beds lining hallways when things get busy. It won't take much to severely overload the capacity of the acute care system.

The next few months is going to be a very bad time to suffer a heart attack, pneumonia, or appendicitis.

[Table 5]

Honestly, that's what Im most worried about. We've had a couple serious health scares in the family that require more complex care. The current waiting times are already really long...and overloaded health system due to Covid will just make things so much worse for every other health issue.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Honestly, that's what Im most worried about. We've had a couple serious health scares in the family that require more complex care. The current waiting times are already really long...and overloaded health system due to Covid will just make things so much worse for every other health issue.

Yup. Including burn out on staff. These are the things we are trying to avoid, not a smug 35 year old catching the virus.

[Incogneto]

If the GSW are still playing, is that new arena in SF set up for hockey?

I was there last Thursday. It is definitely NOT set up for Hockey.

(But it is AMAZING!)

[zamler]

Mortality rate for COVID-19 has already been updated from 2% to 3.4%, which is significantly higher than Spanish Flu...

This set off my is it true meter so I checked, mortality rate of the Spanish Flu is not known there are no good records to confirm but it is estimated to be 10-20%.

[Eric Vail]

If the playoffs would be played before empty arenas, would the NHL cancel them altogether? Are the league and players that committed to finding a champion if the revenues are a fraction of what they would normally be?

I could see a cancellation of the playoffs altogether as a possibility.

It Italy, there are no sports games being played anywhere. I don't see why our situation is not going to go down their path.

[Itse]

This set off my is it true meter so I checked, mortality rate of the Spanish Flu is not known there are no good records to confirm but it is estimated to be 10-20%.

WHO estimate is 2-3%, usually estimated closer to two. This is a global average.

Locally it could obviously go way higher, for example if you caught it in some trench in France.

I don't know what number you're using, but an influenza never has that high of a mortality rate in normal conditions.

[Resolute 14]

^ The most extreme estimates for Spanish Flu deaths was 50-100 million out of 500 million infected cases. 17 million is the most recent assessment, and the one the WHO uses.

[transplant99]

If the playoffs would be played before empty arenas, would the NHL cancel them altogether? Are the league and players that committed to finding a champion if the revenues are a fraction of what they would normally be?

I could see a cancellation of the playoffs altogether as a possibility.

It Italy, there are no sports games being played anywhere. I don't see why our situation is not going to go down their path.

Yeah this is what i wonder as well.

If it is all and only about limiting the spread of the virus and protecting the players and those employed by the teams....it would just make more sense to shut it down. Call it a season, get a handle on things over the next 6 months, and come back fresh and (hopefully but doubtful) vaccinated for September.

[zamler]

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[surferguy]

They cancelled the playoffs in 1919 did they not due to the Spanish flu, there is precedent.

[Textcritic]

Yeah this is what i wonder as well.

If it is all and only about limiting the spread of the virus and protecting the players and those employed by the teams....it would just make more sense to shut it down. Call it a season, get a handle on things over the next 6 months, and come back fresh and (hopefully but doubtful) vaccinated for September.The best case scenarios I have seen all have the availability of a vaccine well over a year away. September is six months from now.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[CroFlames]

They cancelled the playoffs in 1919 did they not due to the Spanish flu, there is precedent.

The NHL wasn't worth billions back then. Different animal altogether 100 years later as many people are set to lose TONS of money.

[surferguy]

My statement was a bit tongue in cheek.

[Resolute 14]

They cancelled the playoffs in 1919 did they not due to the Spanish flu, there is precedent.

They canceled because the Canadiens literally could not continue as most of Montreal's roster was down with the flu, and Joe Hall had already died.

[transplant99]

Just read that the Ivy league has cancelled all together their conference basketball championships this weekend which is a big deal as far as losing money goes.

I think we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, as far as sporting leagues cancelling things going forward.

[1234iggykipper]

Has anyone talked to the Flames regarding this? If I do the pay as you go plan for the playoff tickets, will I get refunded if they play with no fans?

[Russic]

Has anyone talked to the Flames regarding this? If I do the pay as you go plan for the playoff tickets, will I get refunded if they play with no fans?

I can't imagine they'd ever charge you for games you aren't allowed to attend. Fans would riot and the death toll would be a lot more than 3%.

[CroFlames]

I can't imagine they'd ever charge you for games you aren't allowed to attend. Fans would riot and the death toll would be a lot more than 3%.

Have the authorities considered asking Russic to just beat the crap out of Covid? Problem solved.

[heep223]

Austrian League has just shut down their season. This is unbelievable.

erstebankliga‏Verified account @erstebankliga (https://twitter.com/erstebankliga)

The Erste Bank Eishockey Liga has to end the current season. With this action, the League is responding to the measures and recommendations of the governments and competent authorities in the participating countries. Details: http://bit.ly/Saison_beendet (https://t.co/sqYCOILpJc)

[rohara66]

At this rate we'll be lucky to have 1 more home Flames game.

[rohara66]

Has anyone talked to the Flames regarding this? If I do the pay as you go plan for the playoff tickets, will I get refunded if they play with no fans?


Do the Flames not carry insurance for income lost for game cancellation? I thought I read something about that the other day.



Must be why they're pushing so hard for renewals.

[Flamenspiel]

It depends on the spread of the virus locally, I think they will postpone the playoffs though.

[GirlySports]

"If the season were to end today" might become a reality.

[Itse]

Austrian League has just shut down their season. This is unbelievable.

erstebankliga‏Verified account @erstebankliga (https://twitter.com/erstebankliga)

The Erste Bank Eishockey Liga has to end the current season. With this action, the League is responding to the measures and recommendations of the governments and competent authorities in the participating countries. Details: http://bit.ly/Saison_beendet (https://t.co/sqYCOILpJc)

While radical, they had played 40/44 games, and 1st and 2nd place teams were essentially guaranteed already. (Red Bull Salzburg had a five point lead, and Vienna Capitals were 10 points above the third.) With no playoffs, it's not as big of a deal as it would be in most other leagues.

[transplant99]

The DEL has now called it a season apparently....were just about to start their playoffs.

Things are moving swiftly.

[Old Yeller]

According to a Darren Dreger tweet, the German league just shut down for the season:

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1237427687997792257

[Mattman]

The Serie A - Italy's top Soccer League - has gone ahead with playing the games untill April 3rd (at the earliest) with no fans in attendance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/giacomogalardini/2020/03/09/playing-matches-behind-closed-doors-could-cost-italian-soccer-clubs-34-million/amp/

The Italian quarantine will result in nearly $34 million lost in just 29 games played through to April 3rd.

The good thing I guess for sports fans is that the games are still broadcasted, but that's it. Not likely to see any journalists or reporters doing post game interviews as the league wants to protect their players at all costs.

[Textcritic]

It depends on the spread of the virus locally, I think they will postpone the playoffs though.
I don't even know how that would work. It is already difficult enough to get game dates for playoff teams stretching into June when most arenas are already booked with spring/summer concerts and events. I think it is logistically more likely the playoffs are cancelled altogether than postponed.

[Strange Brew]

They are in different counties, so aren't under this same order.

And luckily COVID-19 absolutely respects county boundaries.

[powderjunkie]

One possibility would be into the late summer/early fall, and modifying the following regular season. It's a race against time, but maybe they're able to get down to 8 teams before public gatherings become impossible everywhere...obviously impossible to predict.

A question I have is how do total league revenues compare on a weekly basis right now (with 31 teams playing ~3 games per week each at 'regular' ticket prices) vs. April & May (fewer teams playing fewer games at much higher prices).

[Strange Brew]

I don't even know how that would work. It is already difficult enough to get game dates for playoff teams stretching into June when most arenas are already booked with spring/summer concerts and events. I think it is logistically more likely the playoffs are cancelled altogether than postponed.

I am hopeful the risk start to diminish as the weather gets warmer and containment measures begin to take effect.

One option might be last part of season is cancelled and you modify the playoffs to be shorter/ more condensed. More teams, shorter series maybe?

[Saqe]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-drinking-bleach-cocaine-false-rumors-social-media/


:bag:

[transplant99]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-drinking-bleach-cocaine-false-rumors-social-media/


:bag:

I, at times, have to remind myself how stupid some people can be.

Reading that is one of those times.

[Hot_Flatus]

One possibility would be into the late summer/early fall, and modifying the following regular season. It's a race against time, but maybe they're able to get down to 8 teams before public gatherings become impossible everywhere...obviously impossible to predict.

A question I have is how do total league revenues compare on a weekly basis right now (with 31 teams playing ~3 games per week each at 'regular' ticket prices) vs. April & May (fewer teams playing fewer games at much higher prices).

I don't think "public gatherings becoming impossible" is a certainty. The effects of the virus have been relatively minimal in places like South East Asia, Japan and Australia with some incredibly large populations to consider and the virus has been known to be present for several weeks now.

The next 10 days in the Americas may paint a different picture entirely, but there is evidence to suggest it may not turn into the same situation here as it has in Italy, China, Iran. Everyone needs to calm down and stop assuming the worst until we see more signs indicating this is going to spiral out of control here.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Governor of Colorado has just declared a State Emergency, granting him the power to ban large public gatherings.

[FlamesAddiction]

I am hopeful the risk start to diminish as the weather gets warmer and containment measures begin to take effect.


I don't think scientists even know for sure if this virus will follow climate patterns. It's summer in Australia and it seems to be spreading there at a similar rate to the U.S. and Canada.

It could be because it is a novel virus and humans do not have any built up immunity yet, but it could also be a virus that fares just as well in warm weather as in cold.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I, at times, have to remind myself how stupid some people can be.

Reading that is one of those times.

It’s also confirmation (if any were needed) that Russia is weaponizing social media.

[lambeburger]

It’s also confirmation (if any were needed) that Russia is weaponizing social media.

Nah, it's just a confirmation that social media has made idiocy that much more contagious.

[Resolute 14]

And luckily COVID-19 absolutely respects county boundaries.

No, but that's actually beside the point. Absent the order from county officials, there's no chance the Sharks would have closed SAP Center on their own either. It's really going to be up to county and state(/provincial) health officials to say when and what arenas get shut down.

[Hot_Flatus]

https://theathletic.com/1665974/2020/03/10/flames-evolving-coronavirus-plan-youve-got-to-separate-fact-from-fiction/

Nice to see some completely level-headed comments from Tre and the Flames.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Everyone needs to calm down and stop assuming the worst until we see more signs indicating this is going to spiral out of control here.

Well I'd say based on what's happened in Italy and that the crap is about to hit the fan in US, there's quite a few signs that things could spiral out of control here quite quickly.

I don't think people are assuming the worst. But you need to consider worst case scenarios are possible. It's far more dangerous to stick your fingers in your ears and pretend we'll be fine then entertain the possibility that containment in Canada will fail.

[dash_pinched]

You're going to need an Italian-style lockdown to prevent fans from getting together in large groups even if you decide to play games in empty stadiums/arenas.

1237455747677655040

[Hot_Flatus]

Well I'd say based on what's happened in Italy and that the crap is about to hit the fan in US, there's quite a few signs that things could spiral out of control here quite quickly.

I don't think people are assuming the worst. But you need to consider worst case scenarios are possible. It's far more dangerous to stick your fingers in your ears and pretend we'll be fine then entertain the possibility that containment in Canada will fail

There is so much more to consider than simply inferring that because it went nuts in Italy, it is going to do the same here. Actively suggesting the crap is about to hit the fan in the US and Canada is pretty much how we end up with empty aisles of TP and bottled water. Relax.

Many countries also showed cases days, if not weeks ago and they have not blown up either. It could happen, but it is not right to act like it is a foregone conclusion. In the meantime wash your hands and go about your business.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9j8HO8DY4t/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

[Reggie Dunlop]

Ohio debating whether Cavaliers and Blue Jackets may go ahead with games.

1237453689645867013

[Snuffleupagus]

https://theathletic.com/1665974/2020/03/10/flames-evolving-coronavirus-plan-youve-got-to-separate-fact-from-fiction/

Nice to see some completely level-headed comments from Tre and the Flames.
I'll take your word for it ;)

[Itse]

An x-factor is if it starts to go through a team. I'm not sure how that would be handled.

If I've understood correctly, it currently takes about 24 hours to test for COVID-19. Possibly less in a private clinic.

So at least theoretically a team could identify and isolate the cases, drown everything in disinfectant and keep playing, with possibly a game postponed. With all the events being canceled, re-scheduling shouldn't be much of an issue.

Of course I'm not at all sure if that's realistic. Actual professionals such as health officials might have differing opinions.

It's actually a decent reason to shorten the season. The less games you play, the smaller the odds of corona making a mess of things.

[surferguy]

Ohio debating whether Cavaliers and Blue Jackets may go ahead with games.

1237453689645867013

I’m no expert but special air filtration sounds like homers special virus stopping rock.

[Resolute 14]

I'm sure they have special air filtration systems. I just don't know why they think that will matter for a disease transmitted via close contact. The filters are nowhere near the people.

[GirlySports]

No fans in arena? Return of the Red Mile!

[CMPunk]

No fans in arena? Return of the Red Mile!

:blink: your not serious are you?

[GirlySports]

There is so much more to consider than simply inferring that because it went nuts in Italy, it is going to do the same here. Actively suggesting the crap is about to hit the fan in the US and Canada is pretty much how we end up with empty aisles of TP and bottled water. Relax.

Many countries also showed cases days, if not weeks ago and they have not blown up either. It could happen, but it is not right to act like it is a foregone conclusion. In the meantime wash your hands and go about your business.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9j8HO8DY4t/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Italians.... it's all the hugging and kissing.

[Gaskal]

Italians.... it's all the hugging and kissing.
That country has hundreds dead and is on the verge of their medical services completely collapsing altogether, but sure, let's make stereotypical comments while blaming their culture.

####ing stupid comment.

[Eric Vail]

You're going to need an Italian-style lockdown to prevent fans from getting together in large groups even if you decide to play games in empty stadiums/arenas.

1237455747677655040

I would expect that if that is happening, they will cancel the games outright.
Those fans think they are winning in their defiance, but everyone is likely to lose because of it.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

That country has hundreds dead and is on the verge of their medical services completely collapsing altogether, but sure, let's make stereotypical comments while blaming their culture.

####ing stupid comment.

They literally banned hugging and kissing. It’s a real issue in Italy.

[Split98]

it feels inevitable that large events will need to be postponed/cancelled for a period of time... and I assume that the longer we take to act, the longer we wait to get back to normal.

But no matter how you feel about the mortality rate, this is obviously spreading incredibly fast and we're still learning about it. To date, the only effective way to stop the virus from spreading is to keep us away from each other until people who have it are no longer infectious... and unfortunately we can't watch sports for a bit. It's going to suck, but it's weird that this seems over-the-top when you watch countries more heavily affected by it.

I agree that the media is blasting this like it's a zombie outbreak... but it seems pretty clear that if someone with COVID-19 coughs at a Flames game... you have a good chance of leaving the arena infected.

I think this takes priority over hockey games because...
- Being sick sucks
- A whole area of people being sick must suck for the economy, right?
- It does kill people
- It's spreading faster than you can write anything about how little we should care about it
- It really kills old people
- It makes tons of sense that people gathering by the thousands would be a really easy way to infect an entire city in a week

We'll, unfortunately, wait for the story of some Pats fan that insisted he go to a game then visited his Grandma after. It'll seem pretty damn silly that we're prioritizing entertainment over what scientists all over the world are saying

TL;DR, here's Neal deGrasse Tyson
"I think we're in a massive experiment worldwide: Will people listen to scientists?"

"Maybe if we just listened to scientists, the Coronavirus would just blow on by with a minimum of cases. We kicked its ass for obeying the recommendations of scientists"

jB4FUHHMI24

[Robo]

That country has hundreds dead and is on the verge of their medical services completely collapsing altogether, but sure, let's make stereotypical comments while blaming their culture.

####ing stupid comment.

It's kind of how this thing is spread no? The comment was pretty valid

[Flamenspiel]

^^could also be that they have one if the world’s oldest populations, I believe only Japan is older. I think your jumping to conclusions. I think it’s good to avoid rumours as well, there was a comment back there about someone hearing from a health contact who said that AHS is hiding cases. Why would they do that? There may be a pile of tests out there but it’s not a case until it’s confirmed.

[Gaskal]

They literally banned hugging and kissing. It’s a real issue in Italy.
It's kind of how this thing is spread no? The comment was pretty valid
And would either of you make the comment she made to a person of Italian background whose family was affected or suffering in some way from COVID-19?

[Split98]

It's kind of how this thing is spread no? The comment was pretty valid

Nah, this thing is spread by being close to someone with it...
Is Italy also the country that was trying to keep people 3' apart or something?



Edit: CDC recommendation was 6'

"Specifically, the CDC defines close contact as "being within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) of a COVID-19 case for a prolonged period of time." "
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-passes-between-people-6-feet-apart-2020?op=1

[Split98]

And would either of you make the comment she made to a person of Italian background whose family was affected or suffering in some way from COVID-19?

Yikes - I know what you're getting at but I think we can take it down a few notches, no?

[Oil Stain]

Nah, this thing is spread by being close to someone with it...

Is Italy also the country that was trying to keep people 3' apart or something?

Being kissed by someone carrying covid is definitely going to increase risk of transmission over say a fist bump or a hello wave.

To say that Italian's cultural greeting method likely contributed to the spread of coronavirus is a pretty fair statement to make.

[powderjunkie]

I don't think "public gatherings becoming impossible" is a certainty. The effects of the virus have been relatively minimal in places like South East Asia, Japan and Australia with some incredibly large populations to consider and the virus has been known to be present for several weeks now.

The next 10 days in the Americas may paint a different picture entirely, but there is evidence to suggest it may not turn into the same situation here as it has in Italy, China, Iran. Everyone needs to calm down and stop assuming the worst until we see more signs indicating this is going to spiral out of control here.

I completely agree, and didn't intend it as a certain prediction, but rather a possible scenario.

It seems very likely that things are going to get 'worse' over the next week or two in North America, but exactly how much worse, exactly where, and exactly when it will start to get better.

Without diving too deep into things, it is also worth noting that because most of the biggest market teams are out of contention, there aren't likely to be very many higher risk teamsin the NHL playoffs. Pretty sure VAN, BOS, and TOR are the only teams in states/provinces with more than 30 cases at present. PHI and WAS also seem to have more potential risk, but the rest of the teams are in relatively 'smaller' cities that are more geographically isolated and not big hubs for int'l travel.

I think it's very possible that only a few cities/regions get shutdown/overwhelmed, but the degree to which business continues 'as usual' every else would be another question altogether. If/when it happens in one NA city, will there still be an appetite for large gatherings elsewhere?

[Split98]

Being kissed by someone carrying covid is definitely going to increase risk of transmission over say a fist bump or a hello wave.

To say that Italian's cultural greeting method likely contributed to the spread of coronavirus is a pretty fair statement to make.

Shoot, sorry yeah I don't know why I phrased it like I'm disagreeing just that you don't need to hug and kiss to get it

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I completely agree, and didn't intend it as a certain prediction, but rather a possible scenario.

It seems very likely that things are going to get 'worse' over the next week or two in North America, but exactly how much worse, exactly where, and exactly when it will start to get better.

Without diving too deep into things, it is also worth noting that because most of the biggest market teams are out of contention, there aren't likely to be very many higher risk teamsin the NHL playoffs. Pretty sure VAN, BOS, and TOR are the only teams in states/provinces with more than 30 cases at present. PHI and WAS also seem to have more potential risk, but the rest of the teams are in relatively 'smaller' cities that are more geographically isolated and not big hubs for int'l travel.

I think it's very possible that only a few cities/regions get shutdown/overwhelmed, but the degree to which business continues 'as usual' every else would be another question altogether. If/when it happens in one NA city, will there still be an appetite for large gatherings elsewhere?

California is getting hit hard. There aren’t more confirmed cases because they weren’t testing. But San Fran Area and others seem to be hotbeds in the US. We can’t trust the numbers from the US because of the testing issues.

[powderjunkie]

^ I was talking from a playoffs perspective. No Cali teams will make it...but obviously them playing out the regular season could be a challenge...

[Cecil Terwilliger]

And would either of you make the comment she made to a person of Italian background whose family was affected or suffering in some way from COVID-19?

Considering I’m one of those people, yes, yes I would.

[corporatejay]

And would either of you make the comment she made to a person of Italian background whose family was affected or suffering in some way from COVID-19?

What? Why not? it is custom to greet people with a kiss on either cheek. Forget shaking hands, that's transmitting fluid right to someone's face.

[Gaskal]

Considering I’m one of those people, yes, yes I would.
And if a non-Italian says it to you?

[Oil Stain]

And if a non-Italian says it to you?

https://media.tenor.com/images/a45bf929e654e10ed1f8cfd75603baa2/tenor.gif

[Shazam]

And if a non-Italian says it to you?

https://media.giphy.com/media/14shCKHPfckaGI/giphy.gif

[Flames Draft Watcher]

^ I was talking from a playoffs perspective. No Cali teams will make it...but obviously them playing out the regular season could be a challenge...

Yup. But I think we'll find the numbers are about to blow up in many major cities in the US. I guess we just have to wait a week or two and see. I was more making the point that claims of there only being 30 cases in major cities are just massively underreporting the actual amount of cases because the testing has not caught up to the virus spread. NYC for example hadn't been able to test anybody until recently. How can you know how many cases there are if you aren't testing?

The doctor in the Australian 60 minutes piece said there should be 80-100 cases for each death. So lets follow the death count closely and we'll be able to extrapolate from that the true extent of the spread. I guess that's about all we can do to try and guess at the numbers in the US since testing has been such a gong show down there.

My prediction is the crap is about to hit the fan in the US and we're gonna learn that this has spread quite widely already. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think all the information we have right now points that way.

[GirlySports]

I definitely would say it to an Italian. It's fact.

It's not an insult. Like I always think the Japanese not hugging and kissing is cold. But it might be good in this case.

Anyways, back on topic, NHL is probably going to have to cancel the season if it keeps going at this rate.

[Flash Walken]

https://media.giphy.com/media/14shCKHPfckaGI/giphy.gif

https://media.giphy.com/media/13EVvgz5ap4knK/giphy.gif

[FlamesAddiction]

To move the thread a little more on topic, the Chinese professional team is playing home games at neutral sites in Russia apparently.

Saskatchewan is basically our Siberia, so it could work.

[FFFLife]

Just got this from CSEChttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200310/aaf04fe616ea74e1a5a3e63bd1ed5412.jpg

[djsFlames]

Ohio debating whether Cavaliers and Blue Jackets may go ahead with games.

1237453689645867013

Is there even an issue in Ohio yet?

At least northern Cali has immediate reason for a ban. And we're very fortunate there aren't many games scheduled and they're not headed for playoffs.

If communities like Columbus cave this early and follow with a ban of their own, more will follow suit until we don't have a season any more.

I hope they hold off. Cause if the dominos are going to fall this quickly, can we even expect to finish the regular season?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Enhanced sanitizing is great but face remains you are still going to be in a relatively small amount of space, shoulder to shoulder with a large number of people.

[chummer]

Will be interesting to see if the games tonight have a noticeable decrease in attendance.

I would't be surprised to see a lot of empty seats. I hope I'm wrong.

[CroFlames]

It's hard to turn down all those gate dollars, but the right thing to do is probably play the remainder of NHL games and playoffs in empty stadiums until some level of certainty is established. I think most authorities are still in uncharted waters with this thing.

If mass outbreak happens, all health systems in the world would be overwhelmed. Business should do the right thing and work together to minimize mass outbreak risk. If they don't, governments should legislate it.

This of course would suck, but such is the reality.

[powderjunkie]

Yup. But I think we'll find the numbers are about to blow up in many major cities in the US. I guess we just have to wait a week or two and see. I was more making the point that claims of there only being 30 cases in major cities are just massively underreporting the actual amount of cases because the testing has not caught up to the virus spread. NYC for example hadn't been able to test anybody until recently. How can you know how many cases there are if you aren't testing?

The doctor in the Australian 60 minutes piece said there should be 80-100 cases for each death. So lets follow the death count closely and we'll be able to extrapolate from that the true extent of the spread. I guess that's about all we can do to try and guess at the numbers in the US since testing has been such a gong show down there.

My prediction is the crap is about to hit the fan in the US and we're gonna learn that this has spread quite widely already. Hopefully I'm wrong but I think all the information we have right now points that way.

I am highly concerned, but it's one of those things where you can find evidence to change your opinion from scared to less worried over and over and over again.

The reassuring things of the moment that stand out for me are:
1. As of yesterday, Alberta had a 1452 - to 7 + test ratio. Obviously 7 more cases today is troubling, but I imagine there were also hundred(s) more negative tests. Lots of people have had reason to worry that they had it, very few actually have.
2. This thing has existed for a few months now - it seems likely that if the worst-case scenario of really fast, uncontrollable spread were going to happen, that it probably already would have.

Just as it has only exploded in a few disparate regions of the world (SK, Iran, Italy), I think there's a good chance that's how it plays out in NA.

[FlamesAreOne]

A lot more besides adding more sanitation stations is happening behind closed doors.

[Enoch Root]

Is there even an issue in Ohio yet?

At least northern Cali has immediate reason for a ban. And we're very fortunate there aren't many games scheduled and they're not headed for playoffs.

If communities like Columbus cave this early and follow with a ban of their own, more will follow suit until we don't have a season any more.

I hope they hold off. Cause if the dominos are going to fall this quickly, can we even expect to finish the regular season?

3 so far

[Reggie Dunlop]

The Heat are playing the San Jose Barracuda (in Stockton) tonight. I wonder how many fans will turn out (wasn't great to begin with).

[Duffalufagus]

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

[GirlySports]

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

Hopefully not. Are you using Italy numbers to base this?

Italy is the size of New Mexico and has 60 million. New Mexico has 2 million. I can see it being a problem in bigger American cities but not America as a whole.

[rohara66]

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.



Sold! Bet the farm on the over.

[Aleks]

My co-worker caught the H1N1 virus back in the day when the Bird Flu struck North America and he didn't even travel outside of Canada. Funny thing was, his wife didn't catch it. And he said it was just like catching the cold.


Excellent anecdote. Take it from me, who was working as a flight medic during H1N1, that your buddy saying it was "a cold" is a pretty stark contrast to the individuals I dealt with. This is the misinformation that can make people complacent, or even defiant in an effort to prove that "its nothing". Absolutely there will be varying degrees of severity, nobody is disputing that. But until you know what YOUR body will do, why be dumb about it? The fact is there ARE people who are quite sick, they are not easy patients to manage and many of them do fail to survive, and if you compound that with unsustainable numbers of these people to where the point managing them becomes impossible, you're just as F'd. I'm healthy, I'm young, but I'm very much at risk in frontline healthcare, and there's not a chance I want to catch this because I know how this song plays out in a certain % of cases.

[Duffalufagus]

Hopefully not. Are you using Italy numbers to base this?

Italy is the size of New Mexico and has 60 million. New Mexico has 2 million. I can see it being a problem in bigger American cities but not America as a whole.

We’ll see. The coasts and big flyover cities will get hammered. Given the total lack of preparation on the front end, I would bet it has already spread all over the country.

[Duffalufagus]

Sold! Bet the farm on the over.

You’re free to bet the under.

People who think this is nothing to worry about are going to be the reason this thing spreads all over North America.

[GullFoss]

The US is going to have a rude awakening in the next couple of weeks. The testing has been non-existent and the country is being told by its leadership that this is no big deal.

If I set the line at 20,000 cases right now, I’d probably hammer the over.

All sporting events are going to be affected big time going forward. You can’t lie and spin your way out of science.

I think consensus is maybe 4,000 cases in US at this time, most of which are mild but also undetected. But it doubles to triples every week and US won't have full nationwide testing available for anywhere for 2-8 weeks. Unfortunately, when exponential growth is 100% per week, that 6 weeks is the difference between Korea (who has the problem under control) and Italy (which has done full scale lock downs and has a hospital system that is leaving old people and young people with preexisting conditions to die)

4,000 x (2^2 weeks) = 16,000 - no big deal
4,000 x (2^8 weeks) = 1,000,000 cases - near nationwide lock-downs are an inevitability unless they do aggressive social distancing

[Mayo]

I think consensus is maybe 4,000 cases in US at this time, most of which are mild but also undetected. But it doubles to triples every week and US won't have full nationwide testing available for anywhere for 2-8 weeks. Unfortunately, when exponential growth is 100% per week, that 6 weeks is the difference between Korea (who has the problem under control) and Italy (which has done full scale lock downs and has a hospital system that is leaving old people and young people with preexisting conditions to die)

4,000 x (2^2 weeks) = 16,000 - no big deal
4,000 x (2^8 weeks) = 1,000,000 cases - near nationwide lock-downs are an inevitability unless they do aggressive social distancing

This is making the assumption that COVID-19 won't disappear with warmer weather like the flu does - which they don't know yet

We are currently in the late stages of flu season - if this virus has the same seasonality it could die off or at least slow to the point where it's manageable while they develop a vaccine

[FlamesAddiction]

This is making the assumption that COVID-19 won't disappear with warmer weather like the flu does - which they don't know yet

We are currently in the late stages of flu season - if this virus has the same seasonality it could die off or at least slow to the point where it's manageable while they develop a vaccine

It's hitting some warm countries pretty hard right now, so I wouldn't be too hopeful. It could be a lack of built up immunity because it is new to humans, but it could also be one of many viruses that are not all that affected by climate.

But even with the flu, it doesn't disappear in the summer. It just shifts geography. Southern hemisphere countries tend to have spike flu seasons during what is our summer.

[Mayo]

It's hitting some warm countries pretty hard right now, so I wouldn't be too hopeful. It could be a lack of built up immunity because it is new to humans, but it could also be one of many viruses that are not all that affected by climate.

But even with the flu, it doesn't disappear in the summer. It just shifts geography. Southern hemisphere countries tend to have spike flu seasons during what is our summer.

Which warm countries is it hitting hard?

If you look at the climate data of Milan - Wuhan - Tehran (the hardest hit centers) they are strikingly similar and all about to warm up significantly in the coming weeks

I'm hopeful it is suppressed through spring - but obviously no guarantees