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View Full Version : The Importance of Talent-Level Combinations


FanIn80
02-16-2020, 01:45 PM
First, some definitions:

ETL (Elite Top-Line): "Generational talent"
TL (Top-Line): Top-Line player. "Legit #1F", if you will.
T6 (Top-Six): A second-line player that is good enough to fill in on the top line.
M6 (Middle-Six): A third-line player that is good enough to fill in on the second line.
B6 (Bottom-Six): Third and fourth line players that are not good enough to fill in on the second line.

My contention is that there are only certain combinations that can reliably produce wins over an extended (measurable) period of time. I also believe that higher talent can compensate for larger combinational gaps than lesser talents can. For example, my belief is that an ETL can produce better results with two M6s than two T6s can with one M6.

Top-six combinations that have won the last three Cups:

Pittsburgh
L1: ETL, M6, M6 (Crosby, Sheary, Guentzel)
L2: TL, T6, B6 (Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist)

Washington
L1: ETL, TL, TL (Ovechkin, Kuznetzov, Backstrom)
L2: T6, M6, M6 (Oshie, Eller, Wilson)

St, Louis
L1: TL, TL, T6 (O'Riley, Tarasenko, Perron)
L2: T6, T6, M6 (Schenn, Bozak, Schwartz)

Now look at Calgary's roster, and see if we can put anything together comes close to matching any of the three combinations that have won the last three Cups.

TLs
Tkachuk

T6s
Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm

M6s
Backlund
Mangiapane
Ryan

B6s
Bennett
Dube
Jankowski
Lucic
Rieder
Rinaldo

So now that brings us to Defence:

ETP (Elite Top-Pair): "Generational Talent" (for Defence)
TP (Top-Pair): A top-pairing defenceman
T4 (Top-4): Second-pairing defenceman who can fill in on the top pairing
B4 (Bottom-4): Third-paring defenceman who can fill in on the second pairing
BP (Bottom-Pair): A bottom-pairing defenceman

My contention is that you don't just need good defence, you need good defence that can transition to good offence (either on their own or by getting the puck up to the forwards). Shot-blockers and zone-clearers are not T4 roles anymore.

Top-four combinations of the last three Cup winners:

Pittsburgh
P1: ETP, B4 (Letang, Hainsey)
P2: T4, T4 (Dumoulin, Schultz)

Washington
P1: ETP, T4 (Carlson, Orlov)
P2: B4, BP (Niskanen, Orpik)

St. Louis
P1: TP, T4 (Pietrangelo, Parayko)
P2: T4, T4 (Bouwmeester, Dunn)

Calgary's roster, for comparison

TPs
Giordano

T4s
Andersson
Brodie
Hanifin

B4s
Hamonic
Kylington

BP
Stone


--------------------------------------------------------------

The point: Talent-Level Combinations should matter when determining value.

For instance, someone might look at an M6 and think there's no trade value there... but an M6 can win a Cup on the top line on the right team. It's all about maximizing combinations.

If a team wants to win, they should't care too much about judging value inside a vacuum. If you look at Hamonic on his own, he's a solid bottom-pair defensive defenceman who can fill in on the second pair. Not a lot of value when trying to upgrade your top-six forwards. But... on a team with the right Talent-Level Combinations, Hamonic can be the piece you need to win a Cup, which makes him much more valuable to that team.

It works the other way, too. People like to think Backlund is too valuable to move, but are they looking at him in a vacuum? Backlund is a great two-way third-line forward that can fill in on the second-line. Sounds pretty good, but we're a team that 1) isn't deep enough to play him on the third line, and 2) doesn't have high enough Talent Level players to make him a full-time second-line player.

And that's my point. It's not just about individual talent. It's about the combinations you can make with those talents.

I look at this team's roster and I can see we can't possibly come up with a top-six combination that can win a Cup. So what do we do? We have the D combinations that can win, but if we dip into that to boost our top-six, aren't we just selling our hair to buy a brush?

I think I've blown past my point now, and I'm starting to get into other areas that this topic isn't really about, so I'll stop there... but I would be interested in reading what people think about all of this.

Enoch Root
02-16-2020, 02:15 PM
lol

Perron: TL

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm: T6

stopped reading after seeing those assessments

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 02:21 PM
lol

Perron: TL

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm: T6

stopped reading after seeing those assessments

Whoops. Perron and Schwartz were supposed to be T6 and M6 respectively.

Enoch Root
02-16-2020, 02:32 PM
That makes more sense.

But how do you not think that any of those Flames are TLs

Joborule
02-16-2020, 02:55 PM
First, some definitions:

ETL (Elite Top-Line): "Generational talent"
TL (Top-Line): Top-Line player. "Legit #1F", if you will.
T6 (Top-Six): A second-line player that is good enough to fill in on the top line.
M6 (Middle-Six): A third-line player that is good enough to fill in on the second line.
B6 (Bottom-Six): Third and fourth line players that are not good enough to fill in on the second line.

...

Now look at Calgary's roster, and see if we can put anything together comes close to matching any of the three combinations that have won the last three Cups.

TLs
Tkachuk

T6s
Gaudreau
Monahan
Lindholm

M6s
Backlund
Mangiapane
Ryan

B6s
Bennett
Dube
Jankowski
Lucic
Rieder
Rinaldo

I get what your saying, but I think you're being overly harsh on the assessment of the Flames. If Tkachuk is a TL, then so are Gaudreau and Lindholm. Especially Gaudreau. He's not having a good season by his standards, but he's still likely gonna put up at least 65 points or so.

The point your trying to make I think, is that the Flames lack enough T6 talent overall. There's not a ETL to bring up a line by themselves season in, season out, and there's not enough TLs/T6s to compensate. The only player I would put in the T6 category is Monahan. Managipani may also be the only player in the M6. Backlund is moreso B6 these days, despite his hot streak right now. So overall, there's not enough offensive talent from the middle six and up on the roster based on the stats.

It's possible though that there actually could be some more middle six talent on the roster, but coaching isn't tapping in to it. Players like Dube and even Bennett could be players within that role, but they need to get placed into more offensive situations, by having PP time, and offensive oriented linemates. Dube at least has been getting PP time now due to the injuries that have occured.

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 03:28 PM
That makes more sense.

But how do you not think that any of those Flames are TLs

An ETL can elevate M6s to TLs and B6s to T6s.
A TL can elevate T6s to TLs and M6s to T6s.
A T6 can elevate B6s to M6s.

It works in reverse too. An M6 devalues an ETL to a TL, etc etc.

In combination form, 3 T6s can look like 3TLs, but when split up, how do they impact lesser players?

The goal is to have the equivalent of:

L1: TL, TL, TL
L2: T6, T6, T6

The three Cups have been won by:

ETL, M6, M6 (equates to TL, TL, TL)
TL, T6, B6 (equates to T6, T6, T6)

ETL, TL, TL (equates to ETL, TL, TL)
T6, M6, M6 (equates to T6, T6, T6*)

TL, TL, T6 (equates to TL, TL, TL)
T6, T6, M6 (equates to T6, T6, T6*)

I've put asterisks on Washington and St. Louis' second lines, because I wanted to point out that over-talent on one line impacts the other line because of quality of defence assignments. In Washington's case, having an ETL with two TLs requires enough defensive attention to allow for M6s on the second line to become T6s all on their own.

I'm working this out as I go along, but it just hit me to use math...

Let's say you need a numerical line-value like this:

L1: 9pts
L2: 6pts

And then, let's say that Talent Levels are worth the following:

ETL: 6pts
TL: 3pts
T6: 2pts
M6: 1pt

Pittsburgh:
L1: ETL becomes a TL in the process of elevating M6s into TLs, so that's 3*3pts= 9pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 while turning an M6 into a T6, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.

Washington:
L1: An ETL stays an ETL when playing with TLs, so that's 6 + 3*2 = 12pts
L2: 2 M6s bring a T6 down to an M6, but there's 3pts left over from L1, so thats' 3 + 3*1 = 6pts.

St. Louis:
L1: 2 TLs can turn a T6 into a TL without a penalty, so that 3*3 = 9pts.
L2: 2 T6s can turn an M6 into a T6 without penalty, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.

powderjunkie
02-16-2020, 03:35 PM
I might need you to draw this out on a whiteboard for me.

https://camo.githubusercontent.com/5f0e8886a573bd436f805a46d5d391756b8303d3/68747470733a2f2f64336a32706b6d6a74696e366f752e636c 6f756466726f6e742e6e65742f636f64696e672d61742d7468 652d7768697465626f6172642d73696c69636f6e2d76616c6c 65792e706e67

Surprised I found a SFW version.

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 03:38 PM
I'm not sure if middle-out or dick-to-floor are applicable here, but I'm on board with what you're getting at.

cam_wmh
02-16-2020, 03:42 PM
Bonino is a centre.

activeStick
02-16-2020, 03:45 PM
More important than individual skill level is chemistry that linemates have with each other. Many examples of lines being very productive even though a player on that line could be argued to be less talented than a guy playing behind him in the lineup.

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 03:54 PM
Bonino is a centre.

Yes, he is! I had Pittsburgh's D completely messed up. Fixed now though. Also, Letang was injured in the playoffs, so Cole got promoted even though he was BP in the regular season...

I really only added the D in at the last minute. This was only supposed to be about forwards, but I was curious to see what would happen if applied to defence too.

Hackey
02-16-2020, 06:51 PM
I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

powderjunkie
02-16-2020, 07:31 PM
I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

This is bang on. I'd even say all 4 are really good. But none are 'great'. They are all tweeners between TL and T6.

I think both Tkachuk and Lindholm have the potential to be 'great'. IMO the problem is that this team is built around Johnny as an 'ETL', when it simply isn't true. We need to refocus around MT and Zebulon.

topfiverecords
02-16-2020, 07:43 PM
I'm not sure if middle-out or dick-to-floor are applicable here, but I'm on board with what you're getting at.

Well, teams are often built middle-out and higher dick-to-floor is often important unless you have the talent of a Gaudreau.

DeluxeMoustache
02-16-2020, 08:58 PM
So in a 31 team league, the guys who finished 7th, 23rd and 31st in league scoring last year are second liners that are good enough to fill in on a top line?

Sorry man. It’s tough to take this seriously if those are the working assumptions

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 09:01 PM
For anyone who finds interest in various posting habits... I corrected the typos I made on Perron and Schwartz (from using the template I created) half an hour after I created the thread, after seeing Enoch Root's response.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0hzpdBh/edits.png

At that time only GranteedEV had thanked Enoch's post, which means that literally every other thanks (besides his) on that post is from someone who popped in, saw a wall of text, thanked the first response and then left. The best part is that literally the very next post mentions that the typos have been corrected.

Anyway, I always find stuff like this interesting. :nerd:

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 09:05 PM
So in a 31 team league, the guys who finished 7th, 23rd and 31st in league scoring last year are second liners that are good enough to fill in on a top line?

Sorry man. It’s tough to take this seriously if those are the working assumptions

Read Post#6 and try to look at this objectively in the context of winning a Cup, not dominating the first half of a regular season. Each of those three players are perfect examples of players who are able to fill in on the top line, but cannot on their own carry a top line and elevate lesser players to top-line quality.

DeluxeMoustache
02-16-2020, 09:10 PM
Read Post#6 and try to look at this objectively in the context of winning a Cup, not dominating the first half of a regular season. Each of those three players are perfect examples of players who are able to fill in on the top line, but cannot on their own carry a top line and elevate lesser players to top-line quality.


I see what you are trying to do. Just think you undervalue the local talent.

I’d be interested to see how your system would work in assessing and ranking all of the teams in the NHL

FanIn80
02-16-2020, 09:45 PM
Just because I've just realized I didn't actually do this part yet...

Flames (using my values)
L1: T6, T6, T6 (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm)
L2: TL, M6, M6 (Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane)

L1: Three T6s, so that's 3*2 = 6pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 by elevating an M6 to a T6, so that's 2*2 + 1 = 5pts.

Flames (using different values)
L1: TL, T6, T6 (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm)
L2: TL, M6, M6 (Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane)

L1: TL elevates a T6 to TL, so that's 2*3 + 2 = 8pts.
L2: TL becomes a T6 by elevating an M6 to a T6, so that's 2*2 + 1 = 5pts.

ForeverFlameFan
02-17-2020, 11:15 AM
I think we have 4 TL's (Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, and Tkachuk), but we do not have T6's to help them out. We lack the game breaking talent that others do.

Flames Draft Watcher
02-17-2020, 12:09 PM
I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

Gaudreau can be a TL but he isn't this year. This year he's a 2nd line soft, one-dimensional forward who hurts you when he isn't scoring.

Tkachuk and Lindholm are TL's in my mind. Lindholm is definitely a true first liner. He's looked it both at RW and C. Tkachuk does lack high end skating though.

Monahan is a bit of an enigma. He's a TL forward in terms of finishing ability. But he hasn't completely rounded out his game and doesn't have elite skating either.

Unlike some I don't think we lack top end talent. Our depth scoring has been abysmal this year though. Our team defense has been questionable. We've got lots of great pieces to build around though. A significant trade this summer should get us back on track imo and perhaps a coaching upgrade.

Joborule
02-17-2020, 12:52 PM
I agree with the logic. Flames lack the high end talent. We basically have 4 good players but none are stars. They also lack other skills to make up for it. Tkachuk and Monahan aren't very fast. Gaudreau is small. Monahan isnt a playmaker. Lindholm is the most complete but I'd say hes a top 6. Not sure if he's a true first liner. A very good compliment but dont think he can carry a line.

What is a true first liner though? There's a difference between a first liner, and a superstar. You're not going to have a first line of Ovechkin, Crosby, and McDavid in this Salary Cap era. I would say with Lindholm's performance the two season's he's been here thus far, he's definitely a first liner.

Also I would argue about the team not having star players. Tkachuk was an All-Star this year, and Gaudreau has been for a few seasons also. The team does have star players, but this season they're not performing to their career bests, which is why the team is struggling a lot. Gaudreau last season was performing to Superstar quality for the first half of the season. For the rest of it, he was within star tier. But Gaudreau hasn't had superstar, or even star caliber performances in the playoffs. So the team is missing that star player that can still perform come the playoffs.

FanIn80
02-17-2020, 01:55 PM
Here are the distinctions, as I've fleshed them out:

ETL: "Generational Talent" relative to the organization. In terms of Calgary, think: McDonald, Fleury, Iginla, Giordano. These are the "era-defining" players of an organization. Not just Top Line players, but Elite Top Line players you can build your team around. These guys make third-liners look like top-line players. Conroy was a 3C, but when paired with Iginla, he was a 1C. Tkachuk is probably the next in-line after Giordano, but he's not there yet.

TL: This is "legitimate" first-line talent. They don't just produce points, they can drive the play and make their linemates better. Malkin, Tarasenko, O'Riley, Kucherov, Marchand, etc. You won't necessarily build your team around their identity, but there's no doubt they can control a game when they're on the ice.

T6: These are the guys that can produce "Top-Line" stats, but can't really take over a game on their own or drive a #1 line in the face of top defensive assignments. They can do everything a TL can do when they're on the second line against secondary defensive assignments, but when it comes to top-line duty, they're complimentary assets. A TL can elevate a T6 to being a TL, but a T6 can only BE elevated to TL if they're matched with an actual TL.

That's how I've fleshed it out, and hopefully it makes sense.

In my eyes, I see our big-4 as such:

Tkachuck: TL (growing into ETL)

Gaudreau: T6
Lindholm: T6
Monahan: T6

There's nothing wrong with a T6. In fact T6s and TLs will often produce similar stats... the difference is that TLs can do it with lesser players, while T6s need to be paired with equal or higher talent. Excellent against secondary opposition; can't get it done on their own against primary opposition.

Now one thing in our favour is that these guys are all pretty young still. An argument can be made that our T6s are growing into TLs, but I don't personally believe they are there right now.

Hopefully, this all makes sense.

powderjunkie
02-17-2020, 04:11 PM
I think one of the key things you're missing is the value differential between wingers and centres, and/or better consideration of two-way play.

TOR has three borderline ETL's and a T6, but only Tavares is a particularly complete player. Of course their problems run deeper than just that...

Kovaz
02-17-2020, 04:13 PM
Here are the distinctions, as I've fleshed them out:

ETL: "Generational Talent" relative to the organization. In terms of Calgary, think: McDonald, Fleury, Iginla, Giordano. These are the "era-defining" players of an organization. Not just Top Line players, but Elite Top Line players you can build your team around. These guys make third-liners look like top-line players. Conroy was a 3C, but when paired with Iginla, he was a 1C. Tkachuk is probably the next in-line after Giordano, but he's not there yet.

TL: This is "legitimate" first-line talent. They don't just produce points, they can drive the play and make their linemates better. Malkin, Tarasenko, O'Riley, Kucherov, Marchand, etc. You won't necessarily build your team around their identity, but there's no doubt they can control a game when they're on the ice.

T6: These are the guys that can produce "Top-Line" stats, but can't really take over a game on their own or drive a #1 line in the face of top defensive assignments. They can do everything a TL can do when they're on the second line against secondary defensive assignments, but when it comes to top-line duty, they're complimentary assets. A TL can elevate a T6 to being a TL, but a T6 can only BE elevated to TL if they're matched with an actual TL.

That's how I've fleshed it out, and hopefully it makes sense.

In my eyes, I see our big-4 as such:

Tkachuck: TL (growing into ETL)

Gaudreau: T6
Lindholm: T6
Monahan: T6

There's nothing wrong with a T6. In fact T6s and TLs will often produce similar stats... the difference is that TLs can do it with lesser players, while T6s need to be paired with equal or higher talent. Excellent against secondary opposition; can't get it done on their own against primary opposition.

Now one thing in our favour is that these guys are all pretty young still. An argument can be made that our T6s are growing into TLs, but I don't personally believe they are there right now.

Hopefully, this all makes sense.

You have some ludicrously high standards for an "ETL" then. Malkin was at worst a top-3 player in the game for a lot of his career, and him and Kucherov each have a Hart trophy.

jer_33
02-19-2020, 02:20 PM
Teams need to check a lot of boxes to be considered elite. Teams can get by with an average offence IF you have exceptional defence/goaltending. Teams can suffer through an average PP, but you can't have a poor PK.

I made a spreadsheet a few years ago called the Contender Template. I won't bore you with all of it, but according to past Cup Final teams your average top six should point out like this:

89 pts (+) - 79 pts (+) - 66 pts (+)
62 pts (+) - 56 pts (+) - 44 pts (+)

Here's the Flames pace this season:

Gaudreau (67pts) - Monahan (55pts) - Lindholm (65pts)
Tkachuk (68pts) - Backlund (43pts) - Ryan (40pts)

Read into that what you wil...

Manhattanboy
02-19-2020, 02:39 PM
I have always thought stellar goaltending and special teams will get you far into the playoffs.

442scotty
02-19-2020, 02:54 PM
When compared to the bottom 25% of the league we have four top line players. When compared to the top 25% of the league I’m not sure we have any.

FanIn80
02-19-2020, 05:48 PM
You have some ludicrously high standards for an "ETL" then. Malkin was at worst a top-3 player in the game for a lot of his career, and him and Kucherov each have a Hart trophy.

Having a Hart trophy doesn’t make a player someone you build a team around. Would you build a team around Hall? I’d build a team around Iginla, and he doesn’t have a Hart.

You build around Crosby (ETL), you add in a Malkin (TL).
You build around Stamkos (ETL), you add in a Kucherov (TL).
You build around McKinnon (ETL), you add in a Ranta (TL).

I’m realizing now that most people’s arguments aren’t about me separating a Crosby above a Malkin, it’s really about what I’m calling each player type. That’s fair, I suppose. People have certain identities attached to “Elite Top Line” and “Top Six” etc. I need to come up with different names or people will continue to get stuck on that. Of course Malkin is an elite top line caliber player, in the traditional sense, but I’m not using the term in the traditional sense here. I’ve been very clear about what separates an ETL from a TL from a T6, but people are still thinking about traditional meanings vs my definitions. That’s on me, though. I’m talking about players in a different way, therefore I need a different way to classify them.

GranteedEV
02-19-2020, 05:58 PM
Just... just... stop man.

Evgeni Malkin is probably one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game.

FanIn80
02-19-2020, 06:08 PM
Just... just... stop man.

Evgeni Malkin is probably one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game.

Right now? What about when they won their last Cup? Was 2017 Malkin one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game? He was barely a top-ten center in the League in 2017.

These aren’t all-time career rankings.

GranteedEV
02-19-2020, 06:13 PM
Right now? What about when they won their last Cup? Was 2017 Malkin one of the 10 greatest centers to ever play the game?

The player who led all players in playoff scoring in 2017?

Nah, not him :blink:

FanIn80
02-19-2020, 06:31 PM
The player who led all players in playoff scoring in 2017?

Nah, not him :blink:

He also played the most games in the playoffs, and had Kessel as his winger. Crosby finished with 1pt behind Malkin, played one less game and had a rookie on his wing (they both had checkers as their other wingers).

If you want to build your championship team around 2017 Malkin, go ahead, but the reality is that team was built around Crosby. You know... the guy that won back-to-back playoff MVPs for both that season and the season before it.

ST20
02-19-2020, 09:32 PM
lol the amount of disrespect Malkin gets is ridiculous... No disrespect to Gio but he's had one (maybe two) elite seasons and he is a generational talent while a surefire Hall of Famer, 14th all time points per game, 2 time art ross, Hart, Calder, Con Smyth and Ted Lindsay award winner is only a top line player? The team was built around both of them - they both took equal salary at lower than market value. Yes Crosby is better but that does nothing to diminish Malkin. This is not to mention that Malkin plays even better when Crosby is out.

Every single team in the league would start a franchise around Malkin. Also, for what it is worth, Hornqvist was not a bottom 6 player during their cup runs and has been a top 6 physical power forward his entire career. Look at his number in Nashville and Pittsburgh... it's only the last two years (not surprising given his age) that he's become a bottom 6 player.

ST20
02-19-2020, 09:51 PM
You build around Stamkos (ETL), you add in a Kucherov (TL).


Kucherov has been the better in every statistic (advance or not) for quite some time now... Malkin has been better than Stamkos for their entire careers... Maybe you just have an anti-Russian bias.

FanIn80
02-19-2020, 10:24 PM
Yes, you got me. I hate Russians. My name is Don Cherry and I would rather build my team around Crosby than Malkin because Malkin’s a Russian. There’s no other possible reason for it than my burning hatred for Russians.

Ps. If you’re trying to win a Cup in 2020, why on Earth do you care that Malkin won an Art Ross however many years ago? Also, I’ve made it very clear that my classifications were not based (solely) on stats. I’m not going to repeat everything again. Either you get what I’m doing or you don’t. It’s fine either way, just please stop quoting stats and awards that have nothing to do with what I’m doing.

Gio won the Norris last year. Is he a Norris caliber defenceman this year? Nope. So if it turns out that having a Norris caliber d-man is a big part of winning a Cup, then is Gio winning a Norris last year going to impact that in any way this year?

troutman
02-20-2020, 09:52 AM
I appreciate the effort. Chicago and LA also had a few elite players in key positions. You mostly get players like that in the draft.

CHI - Kane, Toews, Keith
LA - Kopitar, Doughty, Quick

What about goalies?

Dienasty
02-20-2020, 11:21 AM
I think this conversation got sidetracked with "who falls in each bucket" and then Malkin specifically.

I agree that Malkin is in the elite category people were outraged that he wasn't a top 100 player ever, he won the Hart during the first cup run and then had a huge year the year following the second cup run so there is longevity. However, I think it would be easier if you defined what each bucket consists of.
For example
ETL - = >PPG and Corsi>55% (or some other metric)
Top 6 - = PPG to .75PPG and >55% corsi
Mid 6 - = .75 to .5PPG and >50% corsi

This will pull out personal biases on how you "rate" a player. If there is an outlier maybe dig a little deeper and figure out why and adjust your buckets.

powderjunkie
02-20-2020, 11:40 AM
These things are fun exercises/time wasters. It's great that you post them, but half the reason you do so should be for feedback.

Hornqvist is not a B6, he's an M6.
Bozak is not a T6.
Does Oshie belong in the same group as JG/SM/EL? Is Tarasenko really a tier above those three?

The Cobra
02-20-2020, 12:14 PM
Yes, you got me. I hate Russians. My name is Don Cherry and I would rather build my team around Crosby than Malkin because Malkin’s a Russian. There’s no other possible reason for it than my burning hatred for Russians.

Ps. If you’re trying to win a Cup in 2020, why on Earth do you care that Malkin won an Art Ross however many years ago? Also, I’ve made it very clear that my classifications were not based (solely) on stats. I’m not going to repeat everything again. Either you get what I’m doing or you don’t. It’s fine either way, just please stop quoting stats and awards that have nothing to do with what I’m doing.

Gio won the Norris last year. Is he a Norris caliber defenceman this year? Nope. So if it turns out that having a Norris caliber d-man is a big part of winning a Cup, then is Gio winning a Norris last year going to impact that in any way this year?

Malkin is still very much an elite player.

Doctorfever
02-20-2020, 12:45 PM
Thank you for the posts FanIn80. I appreciate the effort you put in as I find this interesting as well.

I was thinking about something similar to this a few days ago (but didn’t put any effort into it). I was thinking about a system of ranking players, prospects and draft picks - giving each a value between 1 and 100. I haven’t got into the advanced stats of the NHL, so I wouldn’t have the ability to make up the scale or ranking system.

But say the top player in the league (if you were trading for them today) would be McDavid, valued as 100. What would it take to trade for him from Calgary’s roster and what value would you give each asset in order to equal 100.

Would it be something like 2020 first (20) + 2021 first (20) + Lindholm (30) + Anderson (30) = 100???

I really have no idea what the number value of each player or pick would be but would be nice for the average fan like myself to gauge trade values of players.

Of course there are so many layers, for instance the value of Detroit’s first would be far greater than the value of Boston’s first.

But thanks again, I find things like this interesting. And different people will place different values on the same player, just like a GM would.