Rube's 2016 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[rubecube]

We're back, folks! After posting a 77-58-4 record ATS last year, I believe that's now three consecutive years with a record above 50% (someone may want to fact check that). I'll be honest and say I haven't followed the NFL as religiously this offseason so that could hurt me. I will also warn that the first three weeks might be a bit of a crapshoot. Week 1 I'll be in Philly to watch the Eagles/Browns game, so I'll miss all of the other morning games and will likely not be sober for the afternoon and evening games (okay so the second part of that isn't really different from previous years). Week 2, I'm going to my buddy's resort on Pender Island for the weekend so it's unlikely I'll catch any of the games unless his WiFi is a lot better than I'm expecting it to be.

I'm still debating doing a podcast this year, but I might do a format where I make picks against my idiot friend who loves football but knows dick all about it, so stay tuned for that if I get around to it.

I made some side future bets as well, which I'll spoiler below:

Regular season wins:
CAR U10.5
DEN U9.5
BUF O8
CLE U4.5
JAX U7.5
KC O9.5
TB O7.5

Super Bowl Winner: Seattle +736

Now on to the week 1 picks! I don't normally do the Thursday night games but I always make an exception for opening week.

CAR -3
TB ML
TEN ML
SF ML
NYJ +2.5
NO -1.5
JAX +4.5
SEA -10
NYG +1
ARI -6
KC -6.5
BUF +3
DET +3
PIT - 1.5

[Sylvanfan]

We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.

I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.

I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.

At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.

[CofR]

For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under

[rubecube]

We should see how you did in the first three weeks the past few years.

I always think that the first few weeks are more difficult as you try to get a feel for things. But I have nothing to back that up.

I think the best bets this week would be the Jets, Saints, and Seahawks. Even the Titans as a money play is worthwhile. Other than that I can talk myself into leaning either way quite easily.

At this point I'd like to see what this years Jaguars are before I'm comfortable giving a consensus top 4 team like the Packers a pretty lean 4.5 point spread against them even in a road game.

I'm 54-38-3 since 2012 in the first three weeks:

2015 - 18-10-1
2014 - 16-5-1
2013 - 11-12
2012 - 9-11-1

I find the first few weeks the best thing to do is be a bit of a contrarian. People will overreact to the previous year or overhype certain teams during the preseason. I'm not completely sold on the Packers as a top 4 team yet.

[rubecube]

For your futures bets I LOVE the Broncos under

It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.

[redmile04]

It's not a great bet only because I think it was at -199, but that's how strongly I feel about the Broncos regressing this year.

Why? Quite possibly a better QB situation, Defense remains for the most part intact and they have the championship experience...

[Sylvanfan]

This is why I sit out week one...

[rubecube]

This is why I sit out week one...
It kind of went how I expected it to go. I can still win the week if the Niners spoil the Rams homecoming tonight.

[rubecube]

Nevermind, I'm 5-6 right now. I also added PIT -1.5 for tonight.

[Weitz]

I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.

An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.

[rubecube]

I hit a 5 team parlay on sunday and won money in the Sunday Draft Kings. So far so good.

An average game for Big Ben and Brown and I will be in the money on my other draft kings.
Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.

I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).

[rubecube]

Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.

[Erick Estrada]

Broke my rule for tonight. Bills +1.

I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.

[rubecube]

I think the Bills look more like an 0-2 team than the Jets who should have beat a good Bengals team last week.

Bills won both meetings last year and neither team really made any memorable moves this offseason, so I'm giving the Bills the edge at home.

[rubecube]

Good call, EE, the Bills are terrible. 7-6 last week and 0-1 to start this week.

BUF ML (L)
DET -6
TB +6.5
PHI +3
CIN +3
NO +5
SEA -6.5
JAX +3
GB -2.5
HOU -2.5
WSH -3
DEN -6
OAK -4.5

[Erick Estrada]

Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.

[rubecube]

Not sure I would take the Raiders at -4.5. It's going to be a FG game IMO as the Raiders defense hasn't gelled yet and I can see some big plays by the Falcons passing game.

It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.

[Erick Estrada]

It's probably the pick I'm least confident in to be honest. That said, Atlanta's offensive line isn't very good, so I could see Mack having a big day.

Don't change your pick on my account as if the Raiders cover I'll feel bad (happy the Raiders won on a personal level though). I'm actually taking the Colts as I'm not sold on Siemian and thought the Broncos only won last week because of extremely poor officiating. I expect the officials will be watching them closely this week and Luck has never had issues with that Broncos defense.

[Weitz]

Nice work. I'll probably avoid DFS this year.

I'll take 7-6 in week 1, especially considering that I came through on the games I felt strongest about (Jags, Lions, Bucs, and Niners).

Have thoughts on why?

I like DFS because I never win or lose big. Haha. I think I took home $40 after last NFL season.

I went 10 for 16 in my work pick 'em pool, good for 13th place.. Usually thats a winning score!

[Jason14h]

10-16 usually wins your pickem ! Even against the spread that isn't a winning score !

[rubecube]

Have thoughts on why?

I like DFS because I never win or lose big. Haha. I think I took home $40 after last NFL season.

I went 10 for 16 in my work pick 'em pool, good for 13th place.. Usually thats a winning score!

Not sure. Just don't want to spend too much money on gambling haha. I'm playing in a couple of free Yahoo pools this weekend.

[rubecube]

Jesus, what a bloodbath.

[rubecube]

Some really bizarre spreads to open the week. I jumped on SD +2.5 @ +105 and SF +9.5. That SF/SEA spread is about 2 points too high and the Colts shouldn't be favoured over anyone at the moment.

[Weitz]

What site (i imagine you do this online) do you use Rube? I'm on a few and can't seem to pick a favorite haha.

[rubecube]

I use Pinnacle. It usually has the least amount of juice but slim-pickings if you're interested in props or futures.

[Displaced Flames fan]

That Broncos D is good for 8 wins regardless of what the offense does.

The offense is markedly better through 2 weeks as well. If Siemian keeps improving....

I think you're already sunk on the under 9.5 frankly.

[rubecube]

That Broncos D is good for 8 wins regardless of what the offense does.

The offense is markedly better through 2 weeks as well. If Siemian keeps improving....

I think you're already sunk on the under 9.5 frankly.
Meh, the first two weeks are largely a crapshoot. Let's see if Siemian can keep it going when teams get film on him and aren't playing with a depleted secondary like the Colts were. Like I said, there were a lot of metrics out there that pointed to the Broncos regressing. If they don't, then so be it. You generally win more than you lose when you pay attention to those stats.

[rubecube]

Think I did HOU pk but can't remember haha

[rubecube]

Last week was an absolute beatdown for me. 4-8 for the week brings me to 11-14 for the season. Hopefully I can recover this week. Podcast is on the shelf for now because the dude I was going to do it with is quitting drinking and thinks football talk triggers him or some ####. Anyways...

HOU -pk (L)
DEN +3.5
BAL -1
GB -7
PHI +3.5
CAR -7
NYG -3.5
SD +2.5
SF +9.5

[Sylvanfan]

Well a big time back door move by Detroit leaves you at 3-5-1 for the week. I dont think I would have picked the Iggles, but would have had Minny. I also had the Jets and Cards covering....yeah good ones there. At least I was on the Raiders.

[rubecube]

Atl +2.5

[Weitz]

Atlanta never wins in NO

[rubecube]

Atlanta never wins in NO
They won there two years ago.

[calgarygeologist]

One more week and I'm giving up on betting. I have been horrible in my Pick'em pool this year and even worse when betting on spreads. I just can't figure things out this year.

[Weitz]

They won there two years ago.

Haha NO is like 8-10. But doesn't look good tonight!0

[Sylvanfan]

Anything look enticing this week Rube?

I like a couple of road favorites in Carolina and Denver this week.
I dislike favoring the Chargers, but I think them at home with 3.5 points against the Saints looks enticing.

Like always...I like the team playing the Chiefs to beat the spread...but far from objective there. Although Pittsburgh at home after an awful game with LeVeon Bell returning against a team who's offence has been garbage in 11 of the 12 plus quarters they've played, maybe does hold logic. I don't see Big Ben being Oprah with the ball like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Chiefs aren't generating any real pass rush these days.

[calgarygeologist]

Anything look enticing this week Rube?

I like a couple of road favorites in Carolina and Denver this week.
I dislike favoring the Chargers, but I think them at home with 3.5 points against the Saints looks enticing.

Like always...I like the team playing the Chiefs to beat the spread...but far from objective there. Although Pittsburgh at home after an awful game with LeVeon Bell returning against a team who's offence has been garbage in 11 of the 12 plus quarters they've played, maybe does hold logic. I don't see Big Ben being Oprah with the ball like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Chiefs aren't generating any real pass rush these days.

I'm waiting to see a line on the BUF/NE game. It doesn't seem like sportbooks know what to do with that game yet. I think BUF could take down NE.

[Sylvanfan]

Same with the Jets and Seahawks. Although at this point unless the over under is 16.5, I'm probably going with the Under in that game.

[rubecube]

Anything look enticing this week Rube?

I like a couple of road favorites in Carolina and Denver this week.
I dislike favoring the Chargers, but I think them at home with 3.5 points against the Saints looks enticing.

Like always...I like the team playing the Chiefs to beat the spread...but far from objective there. Although Pittsburgh at home after an awful game with LeVeon Bell returning against a team who's offence has been garbage in 11 of the 12 plus quarters they've played, maybe does hold logic. I don't see Big Ben being Oprah with the ball like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Chiefs aren't generating any real pass rush these days.

I really like MIN -4 at home against the Giants. That defense is exactly the type of defense that turns Eli into a pumpkin. I also like the Steelers and feel like that line would've been 7 had they not had that beatdown against the Eagles last week, so it's a good value pick. I think this is also the last week you're going to catch the books giving the Broncos -3 against bad teams. Also have no idea why DAL is only -2 against a terrible SF team but it feels like bait.

[rubecube]

Apparently dogs are nearly 60% ATS this year.

[Iggy_12]

How about Cincy -7.5 vs Miami any feels?

[rubecube]

I hate Thursday games and I'm 0-3 so far on them this year, so I wouldn't really trust my opinion. That said, I would take the Dolphins with the points because I haven't been impressed with the Bengals at all so far.

[Weitz]

Ah i'm all in on the Bengals on my Monday-Thursday DK slate. Which probably means they will be awful.

[CofR]

Ya, I like Cincy to win with Burfict coming back. But I don't like that spread. I too hate gambling on Thursday games

[rubecube]

Put in a 2-team teaser of MIA +15.5 & TEN +11.5.

[Sylvanfan]

If the spread was -6.5 tonight, I'd like the Bengals to cover a lot more.

Miami as weird as they've been still back door covered a 7.5 against New England. Played the Seahawks tough on the road.

They're the type of team that looks like they should be able to keep most any game close, but not win against better opponents, and let bad opponents stick around longer than they should.

So far the Bengals offence without Eifert is somewhat suspect.

[Sylvanfan]

Put in a 2-team teaser of MIA +15.5 & TEN +11.5.


Without Watt, I have been tempted to take Tennessee to cover. I like that play though...which means you just threw your money away.:bag:

[Weitz]

Watt hasn't done much this year. They still a good D

[rubecube]

Well that was close haha

[rubecube]

A bit of a losing streak to start the year puts me at 15-19-1. Hopefully I can rebound this week. I'm not sure whether to count my teaser towards my overall record or not, but I'm leaning towards yes.

2-team teaser (MIA +15.5 & TEN +11.5)
PIT -4.5
SD -4
DEN -3
BAL -3.5
JAX ML
MIN -4
CLE +7.5
SF +2

I honestly have no idea why I'm betting the Niners. It's pretty much morbid curiosity and the belief that Vegas knows something that the public doesn't.

[Weitz]

I like SF at home this week and also have them.

Zeke is hurt ish, Dez is out, SF D plays much better at home. Seems like a good play.

Edit: Ha I also just saw that Romo is listed as questionable so who knows with that wacky team.

[Sylvanfan]

Well the teaser worked for you. If the Vikings come thru tommorrow at least its a start on the road to recovery.

[rubecube]

San Diego was a good bet until the Chargers went full Chargers.

[rubecube]

Got in early on PHI -2.5 for next weekend.

[rubecube]

Broke my losing streak last week by going 5-4 but still down for the year. Overall record is 20-23-1 for the year. Would be nice to hit a 5-1 or 4-2 type week.

PHI -2.5
MIN -6.5
BUF +2
DAL +2
GB -7
BAL -4
SD +3.5

[Sylvanfan]

So you think the Chargers will be up 4 points at the two minute warning?

[Sylvanfan]

Oakland as a moneyline play against KC looks like the easiest money ever.

I guarantee Oakland is a double digit winner.

[rubecube]

Yeah, that's a weird line. Got the 4-2 week I was looking for last week, moving me to 24-25-1 for the year.

PHI -3
PIT - 6.5
NYJ +7
CHI - 2
BAL +3
HOU -3
ATL +6
OAK ML
CLE +7.5

[rubecube]

I totally flaked on the whole "Andy Reid after a bye" business.

[Sylvanfan]

I didn't think it would be relevant this week.

[calgarygeologist]

Oakland as a moneyline play against KC looks like the easiest money ever.

I guarantee Oakland is a double digit winner.

Your guarantees are worthless.

[rubecube]

Ugly week. This is what I get for being on vacation all week and just basically going off instinct on Saturday.

[Sylvanfan]

Ugly week. This is what I get for being on vacation all week and just basically going off instinct on Saturday.

You might still get out of it at 4-5 or 3-5-1. I didnt like your Houston -3, Chicago -2.5, or Philly at -2.5. I also would have weny the other way on those, same with Falcons/Seahawks.

Pittsburgh, and Baltimore I thought were good picks, Ravens just couldnt cover after Jimmy Smith got injured.

[rubecube]

Early lines I like are MIN -2.5, LA +2.5, and KC -6.5.

[rubecube]

On the plus side, with the exception of Denver, my total wins bets are looking pretty good.

[rubecube]

Absolute bloodbath last week (2-6-1) leaves me at 24-31-2 for the year. Going to be really hard to have a profitable year on games this year but because I bet larger on the total wins, I may still come out of this profitable.

MIN -2.5
KC -6.5
LA +2.5
OAK ML
SD +6
IND +3
DEN -7.5
BUF -2.5
CLE +10

[Sylvanfan]

MIN -2.5

Agree with this call. The Vikings are on the road, but that really hasn't impacted them yet this year in any other games and they are coming off a bye. The league is starting to adjust to the Eagles offence now that they have a bit of history on them.

KC -6.5.

You might be living a bit dangerously here. The Saints do struggle on the road, but the Chiefs pass rush is still a bit lacking, and Marcus Peters only covers a small bit of the field. I think the Saints will keep this closer than the spread.


LA +2.5

I would lean this way as well if I had to pick in this game. Similar to when Eli went up against Minnesota, this can be a defence that he struggles against.

OAK ML

I think the Raiders will bound back here too. They actually play better on the road than at home.
SD +6

I like San Diego with the points here. Chargers always seem to find a way to be in these games even if they can't win.

IND +3

I like this pick too. The Colts certainly have their flaws, but wins against Miami, and Cleveland don't completely sell me on the Titans yet.

DEN -7.5

I think this could be too many points here for Denver to cover. Although Denver has preyed on ineffective QB's with a lot of success this year.

BUF -2.5

I suspect the Dolphins will normalize to who they had been. They responded last week, but Pittsburgh has always shown to be a bit inconsistent, and they played over half the game with a disabled QB. Although this is the type of game the Bills tend to blow.

CLE +10

I would go the other way. Bengals are in a mode where they can't lose this game and need to respond after the second half against New England, and having list 2 straight. I think they'll be able to pull off a double digit win here.

[rubecube]

Agree with this call. The Vikings are on the road, but that really hasn't impacted them yet this year in any other games and they are coming off a bye. The league is starting to adjust to the Eagles offence now that they have a bit of history on them.

It's not so much that teams have figured out the Eagles offense. They moved the ball pretty effectively against Detroit and Washington, but having a rookie 5th round pick start at RT against the Vikings pass rush has disaster written all over it. Add in that the defense has regressed big time since week 3 and this line is about 3.5 points too low, IMO

You might be living a bit dangerously here. The Saints do struggle on the road, but the Chiefs pass rush is still a bit lacking, and Marcus Peters only covers a small bit of the field. I think the Saints will keep this closer than the spread.

The Saints might have the worst defense in the league. I'm expecting Charles and Ware to light them up.

I like San Diego with the points here. Chargers always seem to find a way to be in these games even if they can't win.

Yeah, they haven't lost a game by more than 6 points this year and always seem to be in the game at the end. I still think they'll lose but I would expect it to be close.

I like this pick too. The Colts certainly have their flaws, but wins against Miami, and Cleveland don't completely sell me on the Titans yet.

This one was more of a value pick. I like that the Colts were getting the points but I really liked that they were getting the points at +105.

I think this could be too many points here for Denver to cover. Although Denver has preyed on ineffective QB's with a lot of success this year.

Houston is a mess. Osweiller is atrocious. I'm fading them hard.

I would go the other way. Bengals are in a mode where they can't lose this game and need to respond after the second half against New England, and having list 2 straight. I think they'll be able to pull off a double digit win here.

It's too many points, IMO. The Browns are bad but the Bengals aren't very good. Plus you have Hue Jackson going against his old team. Also, the only games they've been truly blown out in were week 1 against the Eagles and week 9 against New Engalnd. They lost by 11 against Washington but were tied 20-20 going into the 4th Q of that game.

[Frequitude]

Love this thread. I probably learn more about football listening to you guys debate than I do watching the games.

[rubecube]

Apparently I got drunk and added SEA +2.5, so ended up going 5-5 for the week.

EDIT: Early lines I like for this week are ARI +2.5 and PHI +4.5

[Sylvanfan]

I see Oakland is +1.5 at Tampa. That's one that I like.

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.

Bias alert....I'll take Indy with 2.5 at home against KC. The Chiefs have always been terrible against Indy.

[rubecube]

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.


Doesn't Aaron Rodgers have some ridiculous stats in Domes?

[Sylvanfan]

Doesn't Aaron Rodgers have some ridiculous stats in Domes?

He used to put up crazy good stats in Domes but it didn't always translate into wins. Can't find much in terms of a current update. Games like the 51-45 Wild Card loss to Green Bay, even last years playoff loss in Arizona would be examples of him having a great stats day, but his team losing.

In this particular case, I think the Falcons are coming down to Earth a bit. Green Bays defence has been pretty stout for the most part this year, and I think their offence will continue to produce.

[DropIt]

I see Oakland is +1.5 at Tampa. That's one that I like.

Green Bay +2.5 at Atlanta is another one that I'd play.

Bias alert....I'll take Indy with 2.5 at home against KC. The Chiefs have always been terrible against Indy.

Sounds like I'm taking the Chiefs this week

[rubecube]

29-36-2 for the year. Feels like I'm on a lot of road teams and dogs this week, which always worries me but I'm not feeling super uneasy about most of these picks so who knows.

ARI +2.5
PHI +4.5
DET +2.5
NE -6.5
WSH +2.5
NYJ -2.5
TB -pk
SD +4.5
MIN -4

[CofR]

I hit the over last night... if you ever want a real rush bet on a Jags-Titans Thursday night game.

[MacDaddy77]

1 game wrong this week so far in Pools :(. Stupid Colts

have vikings in tonights game but i'm sure there's perfect tickets out there

[DropIt]

had my first good week, going 6-2 with SD cover and GB outright my only losses. Last minute I jumped on my New Orleans hunch and paid off well.

Think I'll leave the MNF game alone as I dont like to bet on my own team, but I do like the under at 39.5.

[rubecube]

Not really seeing a bunch of attractive early lines. Only one I like so far is PHI +2.5. Eagles are 9-3 against the Giants this decade and 15-9 against Eli overall.

[DropIt]

Not really seeing a bunch of attractive early lines. Only one I like so far is PHI +2.5. Eagles are 9-3 against the Giants this decade and 15-9 against Eli overall.

Seeing ATL -3.5 to TB as well right now. TB defense just gave up 500+ yards to Carr, I think the Falcons can do some damage there as well

[Sylvanfan]

The early line I saw on San Diego and Tennessee was the Chargers +5.5. I think that one is 2 points too high there. Tennessee plays pretty well on the road and San Diego is coming off a pretty tough game against the Broncos.

I would take Denver as a moneyline play over the Raiders too. Raiders have been outstanding on the road, but not so much at home. It's also a game where they could make a real statement, and I think in that type of game I like the experienced group in Denver who have a history of winning these types of games to hold serve. The Raiders are still a learning group and I think a loss here is part of that learning for the rematch.

[rumy]

Seeing ATL -3.5 to TB as well right now. TB defense just gave up 500+ yards to Carr, I think the Falcons can do some damage there as well

Good call on this

[rubecube]

And the losses keep piling up. Now 32-42-2 for the year. Well on pace to have my worst year on record I think.

PHI +2.5
KC -7.5
MIN -6
DAL -7
DEN +2
SD -4

[Sylvanfan]

Jump on the Bucks if you can. Marcus Peters is out for KC. Chiefs offence sucks and they don't have their top defensive player. No chance they can coverify 4 points against a healthy Tampa team.

[transplant99]

Jump on the Bucks if you can. Marcus Peters is out for KC. Chiefs offence sucks and they don't have their top defensive player. No chance they can coverify 4 points against a healthy Tampa team.


You are WAY to hard on your team Syl...lol.

Chiefs gets Justin Houston back today...at home against a QB that is prone to mistakes under pressure.

If Smith takes care of the ball this should be a walk for KC.

[Sylvanfan]

You are WAY to hard on your team Syl...lol.

Chiefs gets Justin Houston back today...at home against a QB that is prone to mistakes under pressure.

If Smith takes care of the ball this should be a walk for KC.
1 point game at the half and Tampa has moved the ball almost at will.

KC usually make shrewd adjustments at half time but I think they are in tough to win today let alone cover that many points. Old team that's pretty beat up and looking ahead to next week's game.

[Sylvanfan]

I don't care to bet too much on Thursday night games, but Dallas to cover 3 points here is enticing. Minnesota with a lackluster offence to me seems like a team that Dallas will be able to handle. Anyone in the league is in tough to run with the Cowboys offensively and the Vikings aren't exactly a team who can keep up offensively. Put it this way....Minnesota will stop themselves on offence as much as Dallas will....Minnesota's defence will have to stop Dallas every time.

[Sylvanfan]

Well Rube you look good on 5 of your 7 futures bets and a 1-3 finish for Denver with their schedule isn't unthinkable. Even the Bills can still get you a push.

[rubecube]

As some of you know from my post in the NFL thread, I'd kind of flaked on this thread due to some personal matters. Anyways, I'm back this week, but I wouldn't necessarily trust these picks as I kind of just threw them together.

TB +7
NYG -3.5
IND +5
HOU -5
ARI -3
NE -3
ATL -13

[Sylvanfan]

I like the Tampa pick the most of that group.

I would take Oakland to cover 3.5 against a beat up Charger squad.

I also think Cleveland should cover 10.5 against the Bills today.

[Sylvanfan]

As some of you know from my post in the NFL thread, I'd kind of flaked on this thread due to some personal matters. Anyways, I'm back this week, but I wouldn't necessarily trust these picks as I kind of just threw them together.

TB +7
NYG -3.5
IND +5
HOU -5
ARI -3
NE -3
ATL -13

Looks like you went 5-2 last week...better than my 1-2. You also have a shot at getting your futures bets on Denver and Buffalo to work out in your favor. I imagine you'll be hoping for Andy Reid to stay out of his own way on Christmas night for you.

[Sylvanfan]

After grilling me for weeks about what I want for Christmas snd me saying nothing. My Mom just suggested to me that she give me money for Christmas so I can gamble on football.

[rubecube]

Anyone know of any good sites for props for the big game? I use Pinnacle for my normal gambling needs but I always find their Super Bowl props to be lacking some of the zaniness of other places.

[Jason14h]

bet 365 is usually good

[transplant99]

bet 365 is usually good


I looked at some of these earlier in the week and man there are some easy bets to make in my eyes,

LeGarrette Blount is 60.5 over/under for rush yards as an example which i think is a slam dunk over... -120.00 on the ML.

[rubecube]

LeGarrette Blount is 60.5 over/under for rush yards as an example which i think is a slam dunk over... -120.00 on the ML.

Really? I'd take the under on that with Lewis and White also in the backfield.

[transplant99]

Really? I'd take the under on that with Lewis and White also in the backfield.

Yeah that is what many are saying but after listening to LaCanfora this morning he sold me.

The one way to keep the Falcons from putting up 35+ points is to keep them off the field. He believes the Pats are going to go jumbo on offense for a good chunk of the game and just try and punch Atl in the mouth.That means Blount over the other 2 guys. Then he figured that once that was established, the Pats go play action and Brady starts to carve them up a bit.

All it takes is a couple 15 yd runs and a half dozen 5-6 yarders and he is over the number. Like I said, Im sold. I can see how it could go South as well though if Atl does get out front early and somewhat big.

[rubecube]

Yeah that is what many are saying but after listening to LaCanfora this morning he sold me.

The one way to keep the Falcons from putting up 35+ points is to keep them off the field. He believes the Pats are going to go jumbo on offense for a good chunk of the game and just try and punch Atl in the mouth.That means Blount over the other 2 guys. Then he figured that once that was established, the Pats go play action and Brady starts to carve them up a bit.

All it takes is a couple 15 yd runs and a half dozen 5-6 yarders and he is over the number. Like I said, Im sold. I can see how it could go South as well though if Atl does get out front early and somewhat big.

Interesting. Barnwell had the opposite take. Said he could see the Pats running more hurry-up with passes to the flats, limiting Atlanta's pass rush.