Flames begin contract negotiations with Russell

[sureLoss]

http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/10/03/calgary-flames-begin-negotiations-with-defenceman-kris-russell
Having broken the NHL record for blocked shots last year, Kris Russell was asked what such an award would look like if it existed.

“Maybe a new set of shin pads,” smiled the Calgary Flames humble rearguard who impeded the progress of 283 vulcanized bullets over 79 games.

Oh, he’ll get much more than that for his efforts.

The question is how to reward someone with that distinction?

How do you compensate someone who essentially sacrificed his body more than any other NHLer while adding 34 points, finishing plus-18 and being universally loved and respected as a dressing-room leader?

How do you determine the worth of a player who was a central figure in filling the void left when captain Mark Giordano went down last year and may very well have been the Flames best player in the first round of the playoffs?

Well, that’s exactly what Flames GM Brad Treliving and Russell’s agent, Al Roy, started trying to figure out earlier this week when the Sun has learned they sat down to start discussing a contract extension for the 28-year-old.

“I had very preliminary talks with Brad and obviously they’re big fans of Kris and it’s home for him so he’d like to stay,” said Roy following his visit to Calgary.

“Are we going to get something done? We are hopiing. We are just beginning talks.”ing. We are just beginning talks.”

[JurassicTunga12]

Nice. Russell is a big part of this team and the leadership group. Guy is a warrior. Hopefully for a nice price.

[devo22]

good. Hopefully Treliving can find a way to keep both Russell and Hudler around, they are incredibly important players on that team.

[saillias]

Gotta be honest, I don't like that we're hearing about this before we're hearing about talks with Hudler.

[Gaudfather]

This is one guy that I really hope the Flames sign to 3 or 4 year extension. The quality of his character cannot be overstated!

[GranteedEV]

"we've started contract talks"

Translation: He probably wants fair market value so we sell him for two 1sts and an A Prospect at the deadline.

But seriously, I see Russell as Priority D.

A) Gaudreau & Monahan
C) Hudler
D) Russell

[Jay Random]

Translation:

He wanted fair market value so we sold him for two 1sts and an A Prospect at the deadline.

Based on?

[Roof-Daddy]

Giordano - Brodie
Russell - Hamilton

I'd take that top 4 for the next 3-6 years.

[Gaskal]

Based on?
I read that as implied green text.

[transplant99]

Man its so hard to get a handle on what Russell is worth based on what he does. 34 pts is a really nice total for a dman and when you add in the physical sacrifice he makes game in and game out and his now obvious leadership abilities, he can probably ask for a pretty tidy sum of money. I just don't know how much that translates to in real cash. 4M per year for 5 years? More? Less?

Tough one.

[flylock shox]

Can the Flames give Russell fair market value without moving Wideman? That'd be a hell of a lot of cash tied up in the back end.

[Armchair Quarterback]

Great news, love his style of play and what he brings to the Flames.

[Vulcan]

I don't see how we can give Russell much of a raise from his $2.6M. The other thing is we have young defencemen knocking on the door, so he can be replaced.

[CroFlames]

Russell is a great age. Already developed, but under 30. I hope we retain him.

[Gaudfather]

With Dougie Hamilton's shot secured, it makes more sense to trade Widedog at some point and extend Russell - and you still have spots opening up for the younger guys.

[Huntingwhale]

Looking at the contracts players like Sekera and Petry (as comparables) got kind of scares me for what Russell might get. And Russell is IMO better then either.

Just have to have faith in Treliving that he can work some of that wizard magic again. Russell wants to play here and he's truly earned himself a nice raise so I don't have a problem giving him a fat contract.


Giordano - Brodie
Russell - Hamilton

That's a pretty solid top 4.

[Dion]

I don't see how we can give Russell much of a raise from his $2.6M. The other thing is we have young defencemen knocking on the door, so he can be replaced.

His shot blocking abilities make him a valuable asset to this team. Players like this are not easy to replace.

[Caged Great]

Anything north of 3.5 + medium term (3-4 years) is too much, especially with who the Flames have coming through the system.

It'll all come down to the $. If it makes sense (ie: slight hometown discount) then why not. Just don't want him on a Brodie contract. He's not that good.

[Vulcan]

His shot blocking abilities make him a valuable asset to this team. Players like this are not easy to replace.

Than comes the question of why he needs to block so many shots?

[Hackey]

I'm really hoping Russell will be willing to sign a reasonable deal to stay close to home and because he sees where this team is going.

[ComixZone]

Gaudreau (6.75) - Monahan (6.75) - Hudler (4.75)
Ferland (.825) - Bennett (.925) - Frolik (4.3)
Bouma (2.2) - Backlund (3.575) - Jooris (1)
Ryamond (3.15) - Stajan (3.125) - Hathaway (.69)
Bollg (1.25)

Giordano (6.75) - Hamilton (5.75)
Brodie (4.65) - Wideman (5.25)
Russell (3.45) - Engelland (2.9)
Kulak (0.66)

= 68.7M with no subtraction of under performing players. So - assume the cap is 72M next year, and we have 3.3M to fill 2 goalie positions.

[GreenLantern2814]

I would predict Russell remains effective well into his 30s. I would predict a Stajan contract - 4 years $14M. At best, he will only ever be the 4th best D on this team. And he's negotiating against Brad Treliving.

Take it and go.

[Dion]

Than comes the question of why he needs to block so many shots?

If that's your skill set why would you question how many shots he blocks?

[Jay Random]

Than comes the question of why he needs to block so many shots?

Clearly it is because hockey is not a team sport. He is solely responsible for all the shots that the opposing team attempts, and if he were any good, he would have the puck all the time and there would never be any opposing shots to block.

Sorry, but that's what the argument ‘blocked shots = bad defence’ boils down to.

[SeanCharles]

I think you find ways to move Smid, Engelland and Wideman before you even think about not retaining Russell.

I like the idea of Gio, Brodie, Hamilton and Russell anchoring things for years to come as the young prospects join them in the top 7 group.

I will like, even more so, seeing some of the prospects push them down the depth charts. At that point you can think about moving on from a guy like Russell. Right now he is our 4th best Dman, based upon age and ability, so it would be foolish to let him walk just because we have other Dmen, who aren't as good as him, eating up cap.

The guys who aren't part of the Flames long-term plans are Wideman, Engelland and Smid so them being here, for now, can't be an excuse as to letting a guy like Russell walk.

I always knew Treliving would put a high value on Russell so this doesn't surprise me. I'm glad to have a GM that will keep guys who are in the right age group and are, sometimes unknowingly to any other fan base, a big part of the team.

[transplant99]

Than comes the question of why he needs to block so many shots?


I would suggest it is the way that Hartley wants it. His system is one that encourages shots from the blueline when in the defensive zone...stopping those shots before they can be come rebounds is a big part of his defense.

To me though, more than shot blocking, is KR's leadership abilities and what he brings in that room and on the ice in terms of effort...and its so hard to put a price tag on that stuff and what sort of effect it has on the kids as well as the rest of the team.

[Street Pharmacist]

I really hope the Flames trade Russell this year. He'd get very good value and I believe he's not as important as some here do. Here's a decent second pairing guy, but we already have 4 of those. The money would be better spent up front anyways.

Don't get me wrong, blocking those shots show an incredible amount of skill and character, but in the end the inability to get the puck back is why he had to block so many shots

[GreenLantern2814]

Clearly it is because hockey is not a team sport. He is solely responsible for all the shots that the opposing team attempts, and if he were any good, he would have the puck all the time and there would never be any opposing shots to block.

Sorry, but that's what the argument ‘blocked shots = bad defence’ boils down to.

This is really all Chris Butler's fault. He was the leading shot blocker, or close to it, his last year. And the media fed us that garbage for two months, as if we were going to forget that he never once looked like he knew what he was doing the previous two years.

So while blocked shots don't = bad defence, blocked shots being used to justify someone's value = Chris Butler = #### you.

[Vulcan]

Clearly it is because hockey is not a team sport. He is solely responsible for all the shots that the opposing team attempts, and if he were any good, he would have the puck all the time and there would never be any opposing shots to block.

Sorry, but that's what the argument ‘blocked shots = bad defence’ boils down to.

I'm not saying he is solely responsible but there is a trend that suggests that he spends too much time in the defensive zone.

[Cole436]

If it's not under 3.4 per, he needs to walk. We have too many kids coming up that can fill that spot for cheaper and we need to get some key RFA's signed.

[Gaudfather]

I really hope the Flames trade Russell this year. He'd get very good value and I believe he's not as important as some here do. Here's a decent second pairing guy, but we already have 4 of those. The money would be better spent up front anyways.

Don't get me wrong, blocking those shots show an incredible amount of skill and character, but in the end the inability to get the puck back is why he had to block so many shots

I think Russell's abilities as a puck mover are underrated. And as he showed in the recent 3 on 3 he has decent hands in tight.

[Street Pharmacist]

I think Russell's abilities as a puck mover are underrated. And as he showed in the recent 3 on 3 he has decent hands in tight.
He allowed more shots from the slot than almost any defenseman in the league least year. I'm not concerned about his passing. I'm concerned about his ability to get the puck back

[Strange Brew]

Gaudreau (6.75) - Monahan (6.75) - Hudler (4.75)
Ferland (.825) - Bennett (.925) - Frolik (4.3)
Bouma (2.2) - Backlund (3.575) - Jooris (1)
Ryamond (3.15) - Stajan (3.125) - Hathaway (.69)
Bollg (1.25)

Giordano (6.75) - Hamilton (5.75)
Brodie (4.65) - Wideman (5.25)
Russell (3.45) - Engelland (2.9)
Kulak (0.66)

= 68.7M with no subtraction of under performing players. So - assume the cap is 72M next year, and we have 3.3M to fill 2 goalie positions.

Reasonable analysis. You may be a touch high in Gaudreau and Monahan but low on Hudler. IMO
But you are forgetting Smid which adds about $3m over Kulak.
So without a trade there is no money for any goalies. And you are missing one roster player.

[Fire]

Tread carefully Treliving, don't over commit on a #4 guy.

I would offer 4 years at 3.5 million.

[transplant99]

I'm not saying he is solely responsible but there is a trend that suggests that he spends too much time in the defensive zone.


Sure but would you not agree that if we are going to point at the defense as the cause of not getting the puck out of their own end enough, that his defensive partner would be more to look at in terms of "blame" than Russell?

I like Wideman but he does have defensive liabilities/deficiencies that will cause Russells numbers to suffer in some areas. And again we cant overlook the leadership stuff. Loubardias has often referred to him as a "glue" guy in that group. Those guys matter.

Interesting discussion actually.

[Erick Estrada]

IMO Russell has played well as a Flame but he's the easiest to replace of the top 5 defenseman. He blocks a lot of shots because he often finds himself hemmed in the Flames end. I'm not a Corsi guy but I'm pretty sure he was amongst the Flames worst defensemen last year in advanced stats. IMO Wideman is a better overall defenseman and if one has to go I would hope it be Russell. That said if he would accept a fair deal in the range of $3 million a season I would be all for keeping him but it's important to keep an eye on cap room as some of the young forwards are going to be in for raises in the coming seasons and in a few seasons there's no reason this team can't find a replacement for Russell in the system as one of the young guys you would hope will pan out.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Man its so hard to get a handle on what Russell is worth based on what he does. 34 pts is a really nice total for a dman and when you add in the physical sacrifice he makes game in and game out and his now obvious leadership abilities, he can probably ask for a pretty tidy sum of money. I just don't know how much that translates to in real cash. 4M per year for 5 years? More? Less?

Tough one.

Based on the budget the team likely needs to hold to, there isn't much room for another defense man of that salary. Based on a $70M budget the blueline likely needs to shakeout like this.

$7M-$5M
$4M-$3M
$2M-$1.5M
.75M

Giordano at $6.75M and Hamilton at $5.75M have the top pair over budget by half a million. Brodie at $4.65M leaves room for a defender with a salary of $2.35M, which would be a salary decrease for Russell. That doesn't include dumping Wideman and Engelland to get those big salaries off the books. It is going to be very difficult to find the money for Russell without having a bottom three defenders who get paid league minimum. That gets more complicated when you start looking at the forwards. Treliving will have to work some magic to retain Russell and keep the budget in line.

[AC]

Tread carefully Treliving, don't over commit on a #4 guy.

I would offer 4 years at 3.5 million.

I think that's quite good for both sides actually.

[AltaGuy]

I like the idea of around 3.5M too. To me, he isn't a significantly different DMan from Anton Stralman, just with more dzone starts given our personnel (Stralman's contract is big at 4.5M for five years).

Russell's advanced stats were actually quite good in Columbus. His deployment was vastly different, however. At any rate, I think he's very valuable, a good potential partner for Hamilton, and we could end up with a very good deal.

[Gaskal]

IMO Russell has played well as a Flame but he's the easiest to replace of the top 5 defenseman. He blocks a lot of shots because he often finds himself hemmed in the Flames end. I'm not a Corsi guy but I'm pretty sure he was amongst the Flames worst defensemen last year in advanced stats. IMO Wideman is a better overall defenseman and if one has to go I would hope it be Russell. That said if he would accept a fair deal in the range of $3 million a season I would be all for keeping him but it's important to keep an eye on cap room as some of the young forwards are going to be in for raises in the coming seasons and in a few seasons there's no reason this team can't find a replacement for Russell in the system as one of the young guys you would hope will pan out.
Problem being, Wideman is about Gio's age whereas Russell is 4 years younger. The chances of regression for Wideman are greater than the chances of him repeating his career season. Are you willing to bet that he belts out another 50+ pt performance next season while playing the 2nd pairing?

Russell is basically a perfect #5 who can fit anywhere up and down the lineup when asked should injuries or slumps strike, and plays the game the Flames way.

I agree with 4 years - would mean that Frolik and Russell would come off the books same time, almost 8 mill in cap space.

[Erick Estrada]

I like the idea of around 3.5M too. To me, he isn't a significantly different DMan from Anton Stralman, just with more dzone starts given our personnel (Stralman's contract is big at 4.5M for five years).


I would take Stralman (was a beast last season for the Lighting) over Russell and I don't want Russell being paid anywhere near what Stralman gets. $3.5 maybe over three years but I think he's getting a little overvalued here. You can't keep everyone and I don't know if Russell's a guy that you can't move on from.

[kyuss275]

Tread carefully Treliving, don't over commit on a #4 guy.

I would offer 4 years at 3.5 million.


While i love your propsal i'm not sure you can get a #4 guy for $3.5 million anymore. I don't know what the stats say on the average of #4 guys get paid, but in some of the last couple of July 1st deals it seemed closer to $4.5 - $5 million.

Hoping for a home town discount and a deal at $4.1 million per 3 years.

One things for sure, while our prospects on D look good going forward, some of them are going to have to step up big time by next year. Have to think to sign some of our UFA's and Rfa's that Wideman will be traded in the summer.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

If I had to pick one or the other I'd keep Russell over Wideman. I really like both but the 4 years age difference is pretty big, imo. Wideman already isn't the fastest skater in the world, 4 years from now he could look like he's skating in quicksand. Just hope Kulak and one or two other prospects keep developing well and can take a spot in the top 6 permanently.

[Vulcan]

The trend in the NHL is to pay your stars top money, leaving little room for middle sized contracts. I can't see paying a 4th, 5th or 6th defenceman $3 or $4M per. As some other middling NHL players are finding out, they either accept small contracts or they find themselves on the outside. Committing that kind of money for Russell would be a mistake in my eyes.

This also goes for Wideman if he wants to re-sign with us.

[sharkov]

Seeing what defencemen got in the summer, I'm not that optimistic that Russell will resign given our cap situation.

[Samonadreau]

4 x AAV of 3.25 . He'll take the hometown discount and knows this team will be hitting its peak during that term.

[EVERLAST]

Russell turned out a helluva lot better than if wed gotten Ference back.

The oil are about to take away his C

so glad we got Russell

[Enoch Root]

He allowed more shots from the slot than almost any defenseman in the league least year. I'm not concerned about his passing. I'm concerned about his ability to get the puck back

And yet he led the team with a +18

Obviously, +/- is not the be all, end all stat. But neither is Corsi.

For all the people that whine about his advanced stats, I would like to hear one person make sense of his +18.

Again, he led the team.

Either he is the single luckiest player ever to lace up their skates, or there is something missing between the Corsi numbers and the +/-

Also, as someone else mentioned, he had good possession numbers in Columbus. Did he suddenly forget how to possess the puck and play the hockey? Or are there other things going on that maybe the Corsi numbers aren't catching?

[Street Pharmacist]

And yet he led the team with a +18

Obviously, +/- is not the be all, end all stat. But neither is Corsi.

For all the people that whine about his advanced stats, I would like to hear one person make sense of his +18.

Again, he led the team.

Either he is the single luckiest player ever to lace up their skates, or there is something missing between the Corsi numbers and the +/-

Also, as someone else mentioned, he had good possession numbers in Columbus. Did he suddenly forget how to possess the puck and play the hockey? Or are there other things going on that maybe the Corsi numbers aren't catching?
Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice

[Enoch Root]

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?

I quoted you because I had to quote someone.

The argument against Russell is that he has terrible possession numbers.

Yet he was +18.

You said he gives up too many shots from the slot and can't get the puck back.

So where does the +18 come from?

[Enoch Root]

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice
So you are saying he is lucky

The teams scores when he is on the ice.

Either he has a positive impact on that or he is lucky. Which do you think it is?

[mikephoen]

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice

Sometimes I think you advanced stat guys have completely lost the plot.

You do know the purpose of the game is to score more goals than the opponent, right? Are you seriously trying to use the fact that the Flames score more goals than the opposition while he is on the ice as a negative?

[Street Pharmacist]

I quoted you because I had to quote someone.

The argument against Russell is that he has terrible possession numbers.

Yet he was +18.

You said he gives up too many shots from the slot and can't get the puck back.

So where does the +18 come from?


Same place Daniel Winnik's +23 came from. Or Taylor Hall leading his team with a -1, or...
So you are saying he is lucky

The teams scores when he is on the ice.

Either he has a positive impact on that or he is lucky. Which do you think it is?
Yes. He was lucky. Plus minus has a lot of luck involved. This has been proven. That's my answer. He played on a pairing with Wideman who scored a ton.


If you cling to the +/- argument, would you say he went from the 31st best Flame with a -11 the year before and just "figured it out" last year? Or would you agree that maybe plus minus isn't a good way to evaluate his talent? Carl Soderberg had a +10 last year and Bergeron had a +2. Is Soderberg better?


Look. Russell isn't as awful as his advanced stats may say, but Calgary has 4 better defensemen than him IMO

[Street Pharmacist]

Sometimes I think you advanced stat guys have completely lost the plot.

You do know the purpose of the game is to score more goals than the opponent, right? Are you seriously trying to use the fact that the Flames score more goals than the opposition while he is on the ice as a negative?

Yup, I understand the purpose of the game.

That's not at all what I said. Maybe we should've signed Clarkson before the Leafs did. Maybe we should have signed Daniel Winnik! He had a better plus minus than anyone on the Flames, he ought to be good!

Jesus Christ man. Reading comprehension

[Strange Brew]

This is a tough one for me. I really like Russell's game and he has been a warrior for me. I am just not sure that championship teams sign their #4 or #5 Dmen to long term contracts.

Think of the NE Patriots. They operate by the principle that you don't fall in love with your own players and better to release/trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.

[Enoch Root]

Same place Daniel Winnik's +23 came from. Or Taylor Hall leading his team with a -1, or...

Yes. He was lucky. Plus minus has a lot of luck involved. This has been proven. That's my answer. He played on a pairing with Wideman who scored a ton.


If you cling to the +/- argument, would you say he went from the 31st best Flame with a -11 the year before and just "figured it out" last year? Or would you agree that maybe plus minus isn't a good way to evaluate his talent? Carl Soderberg had a +10 last year and Bergeron had a +2. Is Soderberg better?


Look. Russell isn't as awful as his advanced stats may say, but Calgary has 4 better defensemen than him IMO

You missed the point.

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

Neither stat is anywhere close to being definitive.

And since the two completely contradict each other, IMO the sensible thing would be to back off from making conclusions from either.

You seem to disagree, and feel that you can continue to draw your conclusions from the possession numbers while dismissing the contradictory numbers as luck.

Knock yourself out, but I call that blind analysis.

[Street Pharmacist]

You missed the point.

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

Neither stat is anywhere close to being definitive.

And since the two completely contradict each other, IMO the sensible thing would be to back off from making conclusions from either.

You seem to disagree, and feel that you can continue to draw your conclusions from the possession numbers while dismissing the contradictory numbers as luck.

Knock yourself out, but I call that blind analysis.
One is repeatable year by year. One isn't. You started by asking me to explain his+/-, I did.

I'm not a believer that possession metrics tell the story. Not at all. They didn't last year for the Flames (though the Flames were lucky, not as lucky as possession metrics would suggest).

Russell got favorable zone starts and the puck still went the wrong way. He's never had a year like last year. He's a 5/6 on a good team 4/5 on a bubble and higher elsewhere.

[Enoch Root]

One is repeatable year by year. One isn't

1) bull#### - lots and lots of players have consistent +/- stats throughout their careers

2) look at his numbers in Columbus - his possession numbers haven't been consistent.

So, not much of a rebuttal there.

[GranteedEV]

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

well, no.

Because possession numbers have an inherently larger sample size, you can look at With-or-Without-You stats to see whether players positive or negatively influence possession.

I love Kris Russell, but I don't need possession stats to know that there are things about his game that cause him to get hemmed in defensively. Random icings, giving opponents too much space on zone entries, and struggles re-acquiring the puck on the cycle.

Am I saying that with the right partner and a clever coach you can't work around his shortcomings? No, in fact I think he can be a #4 on a cup winner - but I am saying that you have to consider his shortcomings along with his positive delivered results when looking at the future. We have guys pushing for spots with legitimate #4 upside. Hickey. Kylington. Andersson. Culkin. Wotherspoon. Kulak. Maybe they won't provide the exact combination of things that Russell does, but maybe what they provide can have the same net effect with respect to a cup.

it's not an easy decision but it's the kind you have to make in a cap world. Russell's struggles with possession don't make him a scrub, but they shed light on some limitations in his game that influence his value. Identify your core and periphery players. The Hawks have done it with very good players - #1A G Niemi, #1D Byfuglien, #1W Ladd, #1D Leddy, #1 WSaad, #3W Frolik, #4D Oduya, #3D Campbell, etc. The cap forces you to be very careful with the money you spend.

Did Russell lead the teams in +/- last year? Yes but that doesn't mean he necessarily even be top 5 among defensemen this year because +/- isn't that kind of repeatable stat. Look at Alex Edler.

[T@T]

If I had to pick one or the other I'd keep Russell over Wideman. I really like both but the 4 years age difference is pretty big, imo. Wideman already isn't the fastest skater in the world, 4 years from now he could look like he's skating in quicksand. Just hope Kulak and one or two other prospects keep developing well and can take a spot in the top 6 permanently.
He says your completely right.

http://www.adfibs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/captain-obvious.jpg

[Street Pharmacist]

1) bull#### - lots and lots of players have consistent +/- stats throughout their careers

2) look at his numbers in Columbus - his possession numbers haven't been consistent.

So, not much of a rebuttal there.
1)http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/10/03/d0779b9e05d1c1cdcb0b0f8cff0e2451.jpg

2) Since playing regular minutes he's consistently had worse possession metrics than team average

[DJones]

Hope we can get him for 3 or 4 more years. Anyone that he thinks he's not effective because of his advanced stats must be watching a different game than I am.

Widemans gone, don't see how he could possibly fit

[Enoch Root]

well, no.

Because possession numbers have an inherently larger sample size, you can look at With-or-Without-You stats to see whether players positive or negatively influence possession.

I love Kris Russell, but I don't need possession stats to know that there are things about his game that cause him to get hemmed in defensively. Random icings, giving opponents too much space on zone entries, and struggles re-acquiring the puck on the cycle.

Am I saying that with the right partner and a clever coach you can't work around his shortcomings? No, in fact I think he can be a #4 on a cup winner - but I am saying that you have to consider his shortcomings along with his positive delivered results when looking at the future. We have guys pushing for spots with legitimate #4 upside. Hickey. Kylington. Andersson. Culkin. Wotherspoon. Kulak. Maybe they won't provide the exact combination of things that Russell does, but maybe what they provide can have the same net effect with respect to a cup.

it's not an easy decision but it's the kind you have to make in a cap world. Russell's struggles with possession don't make him a scrub, but they shed light on some limitations in his game that influence his value. Identify your core and periphery players. The Hawks have done it with very good players - #1A G Niemi, #1D Byfuglien, #1W Ladd, #1D Leddy, #1 WSaad, #3W Frolik, #4D Oduya, #3D Campbell, etc. The cap forces you to be very careful with the money you spend.

Did Russell lead the teams in +/- last year? Yes but that doesn't mean he necessarily even be top 5 among defensemen this year because +/- isn't that kind of repeatable stat. Look at Alex Edler.

lol - speaking of sample sizes.

I can play too: look at Nick Lidstrom. Or Bobby Orr. Or Gretzky. or the substantial list of other players who had consistent +/- numbers throughout their careers.

More importantly though, larger sample sizes only means that the data is more reliable. It does not necessarily mean that the data is more informative.

Possession numbers have the same inherent problems as +/- being that there are 12 players on the ice and a lot happens that is out of the control of any one player.

The fact that there is MORE of that data does not automatically make that data more valuable, only more voluminous.

[Strange Brew]

ER - I can't follow your logic. You mentioned his plus minus several times in the previous page and now seem to be arguing how useless it all is.

So what is it - where does Rusell slot in on a championship team?

[Enoch Root]

ER - I can't follow your logic. You mentioned his plus minus several times in the previous page and now seem to be arguing how useless it all is.

So what is it - where does Rusell slot in on a championship team?

My point was pretty straight-forward:

His possession numbers suck - worst on the team.

His +/- is the exact opposite - best on the team.

Some people beat the crap out of his possession numbers, like they are proof that he is a poor defenseman.

My point was that both numbers are weak. Neither one, on their own, should ever be taken as conclusive of anything.

And when two such numbers are polar opposites, that is a situation where you really have to step back and ask yourself what is going on here. Clearly, neither one can claim any kind of stranglehold on the truth by themselves.

That's the point: when two numbers are so contradictory, the sensible approach is to look for other reasons why, not simply dismiss one and run with the other.

[Samonadreau]

Sometimes there is an exception to the the rule and Russell may fallninto that category. He seems to defy what Corsi trys to prove in the way that the ice is tilted. He has found a niche and it works for him.

It also sounds like he is a good role model for the younger guys in the room.

[T@T]

I haven't been around forever so I won't say ever but I personally think Kris is the best 5'10 180lb Dman in the league today.

[BlackWallStreet]

I love kris Russell he's my favourite player

[Da_Chief]

I like Russell but I don't see how you can pay him and all the other guys. The guys on D that needed to get paid have been. The other 4 guys have to be really cost effective.

Wideman is signed as the #4 with Kulak/Nakladal/Morrison etc coming soon. I don't see it unless it's less then 3 mill.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I like Russell but I don't see how you can pay him and all the other guys. The guys on D that needed to get paid have been. The other 4 guys have to be really cost effective.

Wideman is signed as the #4 with Kulak/Nakladal/Morrison etc coming soon. I don't see it unless it's less then 3 mill.
By the time Russell's contract kicks in the team will probably look a lot different. Dollars will obviously have to go out to accommodate Russell and Treliving has tools at his disposal to make that happen.

[Street Pharmacist]

I like Russell but I don't see how you can pay him and all the other guys. The guys on D that needed to get paid have been. The other 4 guys have to be really cost effective.

Wideman is signed as the #4 with Kulak/Nakladal/Morrison etc coming soon. I don't see it unless it's less then 3 mill.
This is where I'm at. He'll want to get paid like a #3/4 D and he's going to be a UFA, so it'll be pricey. He's also not a #3/4 D on this current team. That means to me it's inefficient to pay a very good bottom pairing defensemen that much when big raises will soon be needed for forwards

[Fire of the Phoenix]

But really, we are talking about maybe 1.5m extra for Russell. It's not some huge, cap-strangling obstacle.

[Kaine]

Treviling will offer Russell fair value that favors the Flames. Russell will be glad to have it.

[calgaryblood]

4 years $3.2 million would be the absolute max I'd give him.

[Da_Chief]

But really, we are talking about maybe 1.5m extra for Russell. It's not some huge, cap-strangling obstacle.

Well if you give extra 1.5 mill to one player, then the next one gets extra mill. If you have 4-5 of those guys getting extra mill or so then you've up screwed up your cap space by losing 6-7 mill. Thats a top line player you cannot re-sign in couple years.

Kinda what happened to Hawks and Bruins.

[Street Pharmacist]

But really, we are talking about maybe 1.5m extra for Russell. It's not some huge, cap-strangling obstacle.
When you're a cap team (which the flames will be), that $1.5 will be the difference between $1.5 and $3 for someone else too

[Vinny01]

I was thinking something in the 4-5 year term at 3.5-4M per season. I do think if they get Russell signed Wideman will be on his way out

I wonder how Russell and Brodie would look as a pairing?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

When you're a cap team (which the flames will be), that $1.5 will be the difference between $1.5 and $3 for someone else too
Wideman will likely be gone as a result of Russell signing, I don't think this is a problem personally. He's getting older and with how slow he already is, I don't think the Flames will be the ones giving him his next contract that will take him to his late 30s.

You don't want to overpay any player in the cap world but I don't think 3.5-4m is an overpayment for a 4/5 guy (which is what I think Russell is. Term is important, hopefully it's 3-4 years tops.

We have enough quality depth in the organization to build around Gio, Brodie, Hamilton and Russell. I could see Andersson or Kulak on the team full time next year. That only leave two spots to worry about.

I just don't think Russell's next contract is going to be a problem for us. It comes down to if you like Russell or not I guess.

[Sylvanfan]

This is where I'm at. He'll want to get paid like a #3/4 D and he's going to be a UFA, so it'll be pricey. He's also not a #3/4 D on this current team. That means to me it's inefficient to pay a very good bottom pairing defensemen that much when big raises will soon be needed for forwards

You think guys will be greedy after seeing the market this summer? Cody Franson may be a cautionary tale for 4-5 guys who think they could be 3-4 elsewhere.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

I think Russell is a solid player and seems like a key leader on this team. That said, contract negotiations with a player like this make me nervous. Even on a Stajan like deal, that will be decent term and money to a player who isn't going to be a core player for this club moving forward, and can't be if we are going to be successful. Scary to get locked in with guys like that, it can come back to bite you. Also, I don't think you want to lock yourself in with every player you feel positively contributed to one successful season.

They have Gio locked up as the vet leader, they have committed to Hamilton and Brodie as the future of our D. At some point you have to put faith in the young guys you committed too and trust they will bring the leadership Russell does and trust you can find and develop another solid number 4 sooner than later with your prospects.

All of that said, I think the Flames need Russell for the next couple of years, but it's one that worries because I don't think the ideal length of contract would ideally sign lines up with what Russell has earned and will get. This one (and Hudler's for that matter) are huge risks for over commitment on the term front, and could come back to hurt us in the not so distant future when a lot of our new young core will be at the prime of life.

[Enoch Root]

I think Russell knows what he is (a 4/5 guy) and also wants to be here.

With Brodie sitting at $4.6M, that helps define him in the $3 - 3.5M area.

And I agree that Wideman is a) easier to replace and b) offers much more savings re the cap.

[Stay Golden]

I don't think Russell will be difficult to netgotiate with if the Flames give him fair 2nd line D 4-5 money. 2.5-3.5 m per.
The guy sure gives his coach and teammates everything he can.

[Vulcan]

I wouldn't pay him more than the $2.6M he currently makes. The top players are going to get the big money at the cost of the middle of the road players. Russell is okay but he can be replaced by a prospect or cheap UFA.

[The Yen Man]

Eric Francis was on with Rob Kerr on Friday, and he was proclaiming how Russell is worth 5-6M on the open market. I want to know what Francis is smoking pulling that one out of his rear. Think he used Klefbom as a benchmark lol.

[goflamesgo18]

I wouldn't pay him more than the $2.6M he currently makes. The top players are going to get the big money at the cost of the middle of the road players. Russell is okay but he can be replaced by a prospect or cheap UFA.

:confused:

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I wouldn't pay him more than the $2.6M he currently makes. The top players are going to get the big money at the cost of the middle of the road players. Russell is okay but he can be replaced by a prospect or cheap UFA.

Sorry but it isn't possible to replace top 4 defensemen as easily as you suggest.

[goflamesgo18]

Russell was the Flames MVP after Gio went down. He deserves same contract as Brodie.

[neo45]

I would have no problem with 20 million dollars over 5 or 6 years for this guy. I have liked him since the world juniors. I also love how so many people, including myself, had counted him out when St Louis gave up on him and he bounced back

[herashak]

4 years 14 million

[YYC in LAX]

Russell was the Flames MVP after Gio went down. HNo he doesn't. Huge Kris Russell fan but he should absolutely not e deserves same contract as Brodie.

Disagree that he should get Brodie's contract. That's $1.5M/year too high IMO.

[Vulcan]

Sorry but it isn't possible to replace top 4 defensemen as easily as you suggest.

I don't think he's a top 4 defenceman, I'd put him at a top 5. In a years' time, I'd be happy with Kulak taking his spot.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I don't think he's a top 4 defenceman, I'd put him at a top 5. In a years' time, I'd be happy with Kulak taking his spot.

Russell averaged 23:56 a game, so 24 mins. Russell had 283 blocked shots to least the entire league, 2nd place had 209. Which #5-6 defenseman on playoff teams in this league average 24 mins a game? None, that doesn't make any sense does it.

You'd have to be living in a pretty bizarro world for that to not represent a top 4 defenseman. You're selling him very, very, very short. I'm surprised anybody would attempt to claim he's not a top 4 defenseman, that's just silly. His play last year was easily that of a top 3-4 d-man. He looked like a top 4 defenseman, he performed like a top 4 d-man, he was utilized as a top 4 d-man. So yeah, he's a top 4 d-man quite easily.

Yes, that does mean the Flames have 5 d-men who are top 4, that's how you become good and be able to win through injuries.

[Imported_Aussie]

If Giordano makes 6.75
And Hamilton makes 5.75
And Brodie makes 4.65
Should Russell make 3.5-3.75?

4 years 14M?
3 years 11M?

[Vulcan]

Russell averaged 23:56 a game, so 24 mins. Russell had 283 blocked shots to least the entire league, 2nd place had 209. Which #5-6 defenseman on playoff teams in this league average 24 mins a game? None, that doesn't make any sense does it.

You'd have to be living in a pretty bizarro world for that to not represent a top 4 defenseman. You're selling him very, very, very short. I'm surprised anybody would attempt to claim he's not a top 4 defenseman, that's just silly. His play last year was easily that of a top 3-4 d-man. He looked like a top 4 defenseman, he performed like a top 4 d-man, he was utilized as a top 4 d-man. So yeah, he's a top 4 d-man quite easily.

Yes, that does mean the Flames have 5 d-men who are top 4, that's how you become good and be able to win through injuries.

He was a top 4 last season on this team but he has some serious liabilities size wise. Yeah for a defenceman he is very, very, very short. He can't handle the big forwards with their cycle which was demonstrated against the Ducks and as has already been discussed there is a reason he needed to block so many shots. With the Hamilton acquisition he's only top 5 now and we don't need to pay a top 5 top 4 money or we'll get in serious cap trouble.

One thing our current management has been doing is overpaying some middling vets such as Raymond and Stajan. We don't want to make the same mistake with Russell as cap management is changing towards paying the stars top money while the rest get closer to the minimum. We saw this off season play out with middling UFA players having to sign for much less than previously or even get a contract and this trend will continue.

[goflamesgo18]

He was a top 4 last season on this team but he has some serious liabilities size wise. Yeah for a defenceman he is very, very, very short. He can't handle the big forwards with their cycle which was demonstrated against the Ducks and as has already been discussed there is a reason he needed to block so many shots. With the Hamilton acquisition he's only top 5 now and we don't need to pay a top 5 top 4 money or we'll get in serious cap trouble.

One thing our current management has been doing is overpaying some middling vets such as Raymond and Stajan. We don't want to make the same mistake with Russell as cap management is changing towards paying the stars top money while the rest get closer to the minimum. We saw this off season play out with middling UFA players having to sign for much less than previously or even get a contract and this trend will continue.


He had the best plus/minus on the team last year, playing mostly against other teams top lines. He's able to use his speed, skating, and high IQ to his advantage.

He is also 28 years old just entering his prime.

Don't know what you are smoking. This team would be a lot worse without him.

[Strange Brew]

I am a little concerned the Flames may be sinking too much of their $'s in the defense corps.

I hope these teams that will be so willing to take on our bad contracts start identifying themselves soon.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I am a little concerned the Flames may be sinking too much of their $'s in the defense corps.

I hope these teams that will be so willing to take on our bad contracts start identifying themselves soon.

The writing is clearly on the wall for Wideman. Whatever Russell makes next year will be significantly less than Wideman's current salary, and that's whose dollars he is taking IMO. We may actually have a cheaper defense next year.

Russell is not the problem, Smid and Engelland are.

[genetic_phreek]

He was a top 4 last season on this team but he has some serious liabilities size wise. Yeah for a defenceman he is very, very, very short. He can't handle the big forwards with their cycle which was demonstrated against the Ducks and as has already been discussed there is a reason he needed to block so many shots. With the Hamilton acquisition he's only top 5 now and we don't need to pay a top 5 top 4 money or we'll get in serious cap trouble.


One thing our current management has been doing is overpaying some middling vets such as Raymond and Stajan. We don't want to make the same mistake with Russell as cap management is changing towards paying the stars top money while the rest get closer to the minimum. We saw this off season play out with middling UFA players having to sign for much less than previously or even get a contract and this trend will continue.

Funny you say he was a liability because of his size and make a point of emphasis against Anaheim but the reality is most defenseman in the NHL, regardless of size has trouble against the ducks.

[Yanda]

I would rather give Russell the extra 1.5 Mil to retain him for a few years than having to play Wotherspoon or Morrison. I think we can get him signed for under 4 Mil a season, and maybe as low as 3.

[Caged Great]

All I am hoping for is for the Flames to be able to find suitors for Smid and Engelland between now and this time next year so that they can put Kulak and one of Morrison/Wotherspoon in full time.

[Rick M.]

All I am hoping for is for the Flames to be able to find suitors for Smid and Engelland between now and this time next year so that they can put Kulak and one of Morrison/Wotherspoon in full time.

I expect Andersson will be knocking on the door this time next year, also.

[Finger Cookin]

I expect Andersson will be knocking on the door this time next year, also.

https://i2.wp.com/img.pandawhale.com/post-57820-Friends-Ross-quiet-down-please-Zy9q.gif

[handgroen]

https://i2.wp.com/img.pandawhale.com/post-57820-Friends-Ross-quiet-down-please-Zy9q.gif

he made a strong impression at camp this year, and i think he and many other people in the organization will consider it a disappointment if he can't make the team out of camp next year.


I don't think it should affect the russell negotiations, but these are good problems to have people.

[GranteedEV]

he made a strong impression at camp this year, and i think he and many other people in the organization will consider it a disappointment if he can't make the team out of camp next year.

... Jumping into this team straight out of Junior without having played in the system and defending at a pro level is highly unlikely for Andersson. Maybe he'll be one of the penultimate cuts, like Sieloff and Morrison were this year, but that's it. He'll spend at least half a year in Stockton.

[cofias]

Russell gets owned in his own zone. Moves the puck really well but is a 4th defenseman at best. We should pay him no more than 3.25M/year. He will likely be replaced internally within 2-3 years anyhow, with our abundance of young puck-moving two-way D who happen to not be smurfs like Russell.

[Street Pharmacist]

he made a strong impression at camp this year, and i think he and many other people in the organization will consider it a disappointment if he can't make the team out of camp next year.


I don't think it should affect the russell negotiations, but these are good problems to have people.
I don't think anyone in the organization will be disappointed if Andersson didn't make one of the best NHL blue lines in the league in his second try

[Finger Cookin]

he made a strong impression at camp this year, and i think he and many other people in the organization will consider it a disappointment if he can't make the team out of camp next year.
Since the 2010 Draft, exactly one defenseman chosen in the second round has made his NHL team by the second season from his draft year. And that was Justin Faulk, out of his first year of college after developing in the USHL. Not one defenseman drafted from the CHL has done it. Out of that same 2010 draft, 2 out of 8 D taken in the second round have yet to play a single NHL game.

Am I down on Rasmus Andersson? No, of course not. He had a great camp. Am I thinking he can do something no other CHL defenseman has done in 5 years, and that it will be disappointing if he doesn't? No, of course not.

[Itse]

I'm pretty confident this will be a good contract for the team. BT has proven himself as a negotiator, and I doubt Russell is keen to try out his luck in the UFA, given the direction that market has been going. Plus Russell has a really good thing going here. He's well liked by the coach, a favourite of many fans, he fits the system and is part of a good D-core where he's likely to get good partners. Plus the team overall is heading in the right direction and could easily be a strong cup contender very soon.

Money would be the only reason to want out, and there's no guarantee that he'd get a better contract elsewhere.

I'm thinking 3M for 3 years, maybe 3.3M. It's not a huge raise but still good money. I don't think the team wants to commit for much longer.

[Lil Pedro]

Russell gets owned in his own zone. Moves the puck really well but is a 4th defenseman at best. We should pay him no more than 3.25M/year. He will likely be replaced internally within 2-3 years anyhow, with our abundance of young puck-moving two-way D who happen to not be smurfs like Russell.


Strongly disagree with this statement. It's hard to get owned in your own zone when you move the puck well out of it. Sure, he might get outsized in the corners due to bigger opposing forwards, but he is positionally sound and is effective in his own end for a second pairing defensemen. I do agree on the price you say we should pay him though

[HelloHockeyFans]

Treliving's a smart guy and obviously has the team's future situation in mind. Russell strikes me as a team guy and appreciative of what he has. I think he'll sign for less than what people might assume he'd get as a free agent, but he likely knows his situation and remembers being on waivers not too long ago, so I bet he signs for something very reasonable.

[Street Pharmacist]

Treliving's a smart guy and obviously has the team's future situation in mind. Russell strikes me as a team guy and appreciative of what he has. I think he'll sign for less than what people might assume he'd get as a free agent, but he likely knows his situation and remembers being on waivers not too long ago, so I bet he signs for something very reasonable.
He likely also sees what is happening to Glencross and others. If you take a little less, make it longer. Otherwise, don't take less.

[CroFlames]

I wouldn't be disappointed if he got the same contract Gio did.


Jokes, obviously. But if he's making around 3 million a year for lets say 3 to 5 years, I think it's a fair deal for both sides. I think BT holds the edge in negotiations. UFA for whatever reason just isn't what it used to be. If I was Russell, I'd do almost anything to stay with the Flames. Why move to a new organization with unknown working conditions, for possibly a few hundred grand more, or possibly less? If I'm Russell and I like Calgary, I would make it work.

3 millionish x 4 yearsish would make sense to me.

[-TC-]

He's core IMHO, get it done Brad.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

He's a core player to me as well. He doesn't get owned in his zone either. He is very tough and can take a big hit or a big forechecker. He keeps his feet moving and doesn't ever quit on a play. If we can sign him under 4 it would be one of the best contracts on the team. He's apart of our culture. He may be our best option for power play entries asides from Gaudreau or a dump in. He thrives in bobs system. I would be very sad to see Russell walk. Same with Jiri who I believe is the most underappreciated part of our quick rebuild.

We can't make decisions based on size. Some of our best players are under 6 feet tall. We just need to make up for it with players like ferland bouma Hamilton jones colborne engelland etc. Kris is a fantastic player and sometimes I wonder if we're all watching the same team.

[dash_pinched]

Crumpy summed it up for me very nicely. That said, I think Flames fans will be pleased with what the final terms will be (3.5 million for 3 years would be fine, if Russell wants one more year tacked on, that's still ok).

[Benched]

I feel if/when they re-sign russell, that means that Wideman is on the block....just don't see how we can keep everyone and one of those 2 Dmen were on my 'probably gunna go' list...

[codynw]

https://i2.wp.com/img.pandawhale.com/post-57820-Friends-Ross-quiet-down-please-Zy9q.gif

I don't think that's crazy at all. He might have made the team this year if he was in better shape.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

He's a core player to me as well. He doesn't get owned in his zone either. He is very tough and can take a big hit or a big forechecker. He keeps his feet moving and doesn't ever quit on a play. If we can sign him under 4 it would be one of the best contracts on the team. He's apart of our culture. He may be our best option for power play entries asides from Gaudreau or a dump in. He thrives in bobs system. I would be very sad to see Russell walk. Same with Jiri who I believe is the most underappreciated part of our quick rebuild.

We can't make decisions based on size. Some of our best players are under 6 feet tall. We just need to make up for it with players like ferland bouma Hamilton jones colborne engelland etc. Kris is a fantastic player and sometimes I wonder if we're all watching the same team.
I don't know if we can have 4 core guys on D. That's too many if you want to remain balanced. Time will tell what kind of contract he gets, but this team has selected it's Core on D already, and that's Gio, Brodie and Hamiliton. Great spot to be in, but BT needs to be conscious of that in this negotiation as I'm sure he will be.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Sorry I should clarify. I don't mean core as in the group including Brodie Hamilton Johnny Monahan Bennett giordano Hudler. What I should have said is he's a big part of this teams identity and locker room. He was on a waiver not so long ago and has earned absolutely everything. He plays his butt off and in that sense he is a good leader and in my opinion he is worth keeping around as a placeholder for the young defencemen i.e. Hickey Kylington rasmus etc

Like the Stajan of our d core who can play up and down the lineup and with anybody.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

I think wideman will be traded. Wideman and jones are 2 guys I'm sure we've looked at moving for different reasons. Wideman because we can't keep him and sign the young players plus he is as high value as he will ever be coming off a career year. Jones because he is always injured and only played physical in the playoffs which was awesome but he needs to stay healthy and be consistent

I think hiller, Raymond, smid, jones, wideman should be enough players gone by the draft to make space to sign the youngsters.

[pepsishark]

There once was a man who fell,
He'd drop and fall without stop.
Though he did try, while in the state of lie,
To the ground he did fall once again.

For on the heels he did only skate,
His mates seemed to always chase.
'Neath his mighty boots the disc did aim
And our hero fell once again.

[heep223]

Russell is an excellent skater, has a great stick and is positionally sound. He has good puck skills and a good snapshot. He's a character guy, by all accounts a leader and grew up near Calgary. His only downside so to speak is that his advanced stats are poor, but I don't put much stock in that (in his case anyways). Sign him.