Are the Calgary Flames destined to collapse?

[Yoho]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/are-the-calgary-flames-destined-to-collapse/

[Gaskal]

Did Lambert sneak into his office and write that nonsense?

[RyZ]

Johnathan Willis appears to think so...
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/are-the-calgary-flames-destined-to-collapse/

Jonathan Willis has spent the past numbers of years as an Edmonton based analytics shill. Anything he says about the Flames has to be taken with a large grain of salt.

[Eric]

Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie, Russel, Wideman on defence....

How can this team collapse?

[Locke]

Based on the Poll at the bottom not many people believe him.

Obviously some players are going to take a step back, you likely cant have career years every year, but at the same time you've got players that you're expecting to take steps forward.

Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Hamilton, Brodie, Ferland, Bouma, Jooris. These are all guys that 'broke out' but are at the stage of their careers where you expect them to continue to improve with the odd stumble here or there.

Maybe Russell and Wideman dont put up career years, maybe Hudler stays even takes a step back.

But at the same time, 'taking a step back' from a career year isnt the same as 'falling off the map.'

[EldrickOnIce]

Not sure you read it

We’ve talked about probabilities, and that’s all we have; I don’t own a crystal ball, so I can’t look into the future and see how this Flames roster will deliver on its potential. Considering all the factors we’ve just outlined, though, I wouldn’t be banking on them to take more than a modest step backward.

They may even prove capable of building on last season’s success.

[FBI]

Besides the stupid title, the article wasn't that bad.. Also telling is 75% thinking we will make the playoffs.

[Weitz]

Yah that article lists both the things they could regress and improve on.

And he qualifies the article by stating if they take one back (which he thinks they could even step forward) it would be a small one.

[JJ1532]

Johnathan Willis appears to think so...
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/are-the-calgary-flames-destined-to-collapse/ Does he?

"I wouldn’t be banking on them to take more than a modest step backward.

They may even prove capable of building on last season’s success."

All he reckons(and with no great certainty either) is that we might take a modest step backwards. Yeah, he uses stats as the basis of his argument, but he also does a fair job of taking into account the fact we won't see much of a goalie drop off, Hamilton and Frolik will make a difference and the young guns could well improve.

I think it's a pretty fair article to be honest.

[Huntingwhale]

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/56581903.jpg

[Yrebmi]

The Calgary Flames will collapse. ..around the net defensively before blocking a shot then a quick outlet pass going the other way. Just like last year.

Edit. Actually i liked the artical for the most.
Couple errors. 28th would be 3rd worst and previous season not seasons under Hartley.

[Erick Estrada]

I can see a scenario where they miss the playoffs for sure. Any slight regression on last year's performance would likely result in the team missing the playoffs given how tight things are in the conference. It's not out of the question that one or more of Gadreau, Monahan, Hudler suffer a more trying season whether it's injury induced or simply an off year. Also the goaltending situation is highly unstable as if the Flames opt to go with a Ramo/Ortio tandem you can argue they have the less proven tandem than the Oilers. The goaltending wasn't outstanding last season but it was average or even marginally better than average. Any regression here could be disastrous as it's probably a given they aren't going to be as successful at coming back late in games as last year as things like this always seem to even out so it's important that they are leading more games going into the 3rd period and keeping the GAA as low as possible.

On the flip side if the forwards mentioned above improve on last year or at least maintain the pace and some other forwards step up with this improved defensive group it's not a stretch to think that with the similar goaltending they got last year this team could rise to a position of home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

It will be an interesting season for sure.

[Five-hole]

Yeah it's pretty clear many above didn't actually read the article.

[AC]

Yeah it's pretty clear many above didn't actually read the article.

http://i.imgur.com/KLaVAGg.jpg

[nik-]

I'm so bored of this. CORSI is probably the worst thing to happen to hockey since modern goalie equipment.

[The Yen Man]

Isn't he repeating the SAME thing over and over again from what every advanced stat "expert" articles? Yah yah, we get it. Flames would be a bottom feeder in the Corsi Hockey League, where winning games doesn't mean anything, and the cup is handed out based on a combination of how long you hold onto the puck and how many attempted shots you direct at the net.

[Street Pharmacist]

I don't think anyone read the article. Willis basically says if they do "regress" it won't be by much. People see stats and get blinded.

The question the title poses is "Are the Flames destined to collapse?"

His answer was "I wouldn't bank on a big regression"


Is that wrong?

[Yoho]

I take "Johnathan appears to thinks so " out.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I thought the article was excellent and does so well in being articulate about what the stats actually mean, how to interpret the information, and not get too bogged down in endless line after line of numbers.

If all advanced stat articles were written like that one, the average fan would have a much better understanding of things.

I didn't disagree with a single thing he said.

[Finger Cookin]

I just hate clickbait headlines.

[MissTeeks]

Or are they the most underrated team?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2015/10/01/calgary-flames-preview-pacific-division-giordano-gaudreau-brodie/73029398/

[Bingo]

I thought the article was excellent and does so well in being articulate about what the stats actually mean, how to interpret the information, and not get too bogged down in endless line after line of numbers.

If all advanced stat articles were written like that one, the average fan would have a much better understanding of things.

I didn't disagree with a single thing he said.

I agree ... I thought it was the best analytics piece on the team I've ever read. Like Lambert a month ago, they dug deeper than Corsi to bring in a much more sustainable reason of discipline as to why the Flames had success.

some of the fancy stat crowd have hurt their cause by being belligerent to anyone that thinks the numbers are only part of the story for sure, but I think we have to equally careful of not hammering every analytics piece without actually reading it.

I had what seemed like a 90 minute argument on twitter yesterday about Hiller and the fact that many feel he's not the guy to keep regardless of better stats. I still think it's both ... what do the stats say? what do your eyes tell you?

[Erick Estrada]

I had what seemed like a 90 minute argument on twitter yesterday about Hiller and the fact that many feel he's not the guy to keep regardless of better stats. I still think it's both ... what do the stats say? what do your eyes tell you?

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.

[Jason14h]

I'm so bored of this. CORSI is probably the worst thing to happen to hockey since modern goalie equipment

Like most sports analytical statistics it needs to grow. That doesn't mean it is useless. It means it must be used as a tool to examine trends and team performance, but not 100% predict future results.

This article was fantastic at examining other aspects.

The biggest overlooked aspect for the Flames last year was PP vs PK time.

[AcGold]

So Gaudreau's not boring Sean Monahan. Whoever it is has reached legendary troll status.

[Street Pharmacist]

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.
Yes, and I agree with you. The issue is that one years' stats aren't always reproducible, and the other guy was arguing you could simply look at stats and ignore all else

[Textcritic]

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.
It is still far from perfect.

In his final season with the San Jose Sharks, Miikka Kiprusoff was statistically worse than both his teammates, Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov, and then emerged as the best goaltender on the planet. Henrik Lundquist had the worst save percentage and GAA in NYR last season.

So then, I beg to differ: No, the stats do not invariably "tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks," and this is why there is a not insignificant number of Flames fans who would prefer Karri Ramo to Jonas Hiller.

[driveway]

The goaltending wasn't outstanding last season but it was average or even marginally better than average. Any regression here could be disastrous as it's probably a given they aren't going to be as successful at coming back late in games as last year as things like this always seem to even out so it's important that they are leading more games going into the 3rd period and keeping the GAA as low as possible.


It's pretty easy to argue our goaltending was below, to significantly below, average.

We ranked 18th in 5v5 team save% (.918), 7th in 5v4 (.948), and all the way down in 26th for 4v5 (.851).

[heep223]

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.


Tbh your argument is flawed because a goalie could have middling stats but a knack for making timely/clutch saves. You can't measure that with stats alone.

[stamps]

the no good national sports media in this country sure like to kick the Flames..... IMO Sportsnet and TSN have a bias against this city and it seems like they are almost cheering and hoping for Flame failure .... it will be all the more sweet when the Flames show them up this year ...

[BigRed]

No.

"A closer look, however, reveals a club that should be capable of surprising anyone who’s not paying attention."


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Erick Estrada]

Tbh your argument is flawed because a goalie could have middling stats but a knack for making timely/clutch saves. You can't measure that with stats alone.

Timely saves is an excuse PBP announcers like to use when a goaltender having a bad game makes a save at the end of the game he was expected to make in the first period.

[Erick Estrada]

It is still far from perfect.

In his final season with the San Jose Sharks, Miikka Kiprusoff was statistically worse than both his teammates, Vesa Toskala and Evgeni Nabokov, and then emerged as the best goaltender on the planet. Henrik Lundquist had the worst save percentage and GAA in NYR last season.

So then, I beg to differ: No, the stats do not invariably "tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks," and this is why there is a not insignificant number of Flames fans who would prefer Karri Ramo to Jonas Hiller.

Well Kipper went to a different team and didn't play enough games with the Sharks to conclude anything so apples to oranges and Lundquist in fact had an off year by his standards last year (in the regular season) and Talbot's stats are better because he actually played better than Lundquist did in the regular season. Are you trying to argue that there's an eye test goaltenders also have to pass in addition to stats?

[Textcritic]

Well Kipper went to a different team and didn't play enough games with the Sharks to conclude anything so apples to oranges
and Lundquist in fact had an off year by his standards last year (in the regular season) and Talbot's stats are better because he actually played better than Lundquist did in the regular season.
It is NOT "apples to oranges." You are missing the point, which is this: based on your totally arbitrary metric for evaluating goaltenders, SJ should not have regretted trading Kiprusoff, where I think it is clear that some in the organization did for a long time. Likewise with NY: The Rangers—by your metric—would have been best served to keep Talbot and trade Lundquist. It's the same with Montreal: when the Canadiens chose to build around Price and traded Halak after a sensational playoff performance, it was thought by some to be a mistake. In retrospect, it clearly was not.

Are you trying to argue that there's an eye test goaltenders also have to pass in addition to stats?
Not exactly. What I am saying is that there are a whole range of factors which need to be considered when evaluating or comparing goaltenders. I would actually counter argue that goaltending is not an easy position to evaluate, and the wild fluctuation in year-to-year performances that is rather common among professional goalies would clearly show as much. It is never as simple as merely pinning your hopes on the player with the highest save percentage.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don't know what to expect this season to be honest. I just know that a couple of seasons ago, I was happy knowing (or believing) that in the 2015-2016 season, we would be in the middle of a full rebuild. I was mentally prepared to suck for a few years. The fact that things are interesting now to say the least, is still nothing but gravy to me.

[Bingo]

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.

Yes and no

and believe me I'm not discounting stats at all.

But a guy could have a .915 save percentage by having 10 games all within a range of .905 to .925

Or a guy could have a save percentage of .915 with four shut outs, and 5 games where he gave up 5 or more.

One is consistent but average.
One is erratic but able to steal games.

Stats say they are the same but you may have a lean based on whether you want the steady guy, or want to work with the erratic guy.

[Street Pharmacist]

Five thirty right blog wrote about goalies last year. Basically, all but the elite goalies have consistent numbers. If that's your criteria, it's difficult

[Textcritic]

Five thirty right blog wrote about goalies last year. Basically, all but the elite goalies have consistent numbers. If that's your criteria, it's difficult
Inconsistent?

Yes. I agree.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

What everyone is saying about goaltending numbers is very true: Context is important.

Look at a style of play and that will tell you whether the goaltending numbers are good or bad. For example, watch Talbot's Save Percentage plummet this year when he goes from the top defense in the league in NY to the worst defense in the league in Edmonton. Will he have changed anything drastically in his game? Probably not. Will his level of play decline as the season goes on? History tells us yes as we look at what happened to Scrivens. He was lights out making 40 high quality saves a night when he first arrived. A year later, he looks mediocre at best because his confidence is shot. He can no longer put together those 40 save highlight reel nights because he's worn out, both physically and mentally. Then all you have to do is look at Devan Dubnyk's career to know what having a poor defense will do to a goaltender. I don't need to bother illustrating the details at this point, but a good defense, or defensive system, will bolster a goaltender long enough for him to gain confidence and figure out how to be a winner. It can also prop up mediocre goaltenders as it has in L.A. and Boston in terms of a backups numbers. I mean, Chad Johnson had a season of .925 Sv % in 27 games. He's nowhere near that good.

There's a significant mental portion to goaltending that is hard to teach. Confidence is a major factor above and beyond a skill set. How do you evaluate that? It's difficult, but posture, frantic movement in the crease, visible reactions to goals all can help paint a picture of what a goalie is thinking. The more calm and cool a goaltender is under pressure, the more reliable they tend to be. The ability to raise your game in pressure packed situations, rather than crumbling under the pressure, is why some goalies have infinitely higher value than others. For example: Reto Berra was awful in 3rd periods, letting in weak goals when the other teams were pushing for a tying or leading goal. Hiller might let in a weak 1st period goal, but often gets stronger as the game goes on. The timing of letting in a weak goal matters a lot to a team's psyche, as well as the goaltenders. I would argue that since the Flames let in lots of shots from the outside, but few high quality chances, that a .915 Sv % is not very good. A .920 or higher percentage is probably what you should expect from the Flames' system of defense. However, if you're on a team that doesn't give up anywhere near 30 shots per game, but when they do allow shots they are in the slot for a high percentage scoring chance, then on that team having a .905 Sv % is probably pretty good.

Then there are goaltenders who rarely let in a weak goal. They are far and few between, but those would be the elites of the league like Price, Rinne, Lundqvist etc.

tl/dr: Context is important in goaltending.

[Resolute 14]

I don't think anyone read the article. Willis basically says if they do "regress" it won't be by much. People see stats and get blinded.

The question the title poses is "Are the Flames destined to collapse?"

His answer was "I wouldn't bank on a big regression"


Is that wrong?

When Sportsnet uses the headline to be so deliberately provocative, not many people are going to waste the time to read the article. In this case, I saw the headline, saw who wrote the article, and immediately lost any desire to read the article itself. If that actually represents a disservice to Willis in this specific case, then he can look at his own past history and the editorial decisions of his bosses for why.

[Street Pharmacist]

When Sportsnet uses the headline to be so deliberately provocative, not many people are going to waste the time to read the article. In this case, I saw the headline, saw who wrote the article, and immediately lost any desire to read the article itself. If that actually represents a disservice to Willis in this specific case, then he can look at his own past history and the editorial decisions of his bosses for why.
Ok. That's an excuse for not reading it. Lousy one for commenting on the content of an article you didn't read

[Calgary4LIfe]

The eye tests really need to be a big part of the picture. Just a few thoughts.

Like Bingo stated, one guy may be erratic, but with a much higher ability. The other guy is more composed and steady, but just 'average'. What position is your team in? Entering a rebuild, leaving a rebuild? Entering contender status? That does factor in whether you want to gamble somewhat that you can help one goalie become less erratic and end up with a much higher caliber of goalie. Maybe you don't have the time - or his flaws are too great - and the steady but mediocre guy is the logical choice. Stats may not tell you who to choose.

As for comparing goalies around the league, we must all remember Miika Kiprusoff. One bad (by his measure) and one great year. .933, .923,. .917, .906, .903, .920, .906, .920, .882.

He had a few rough patches as a goalie here in Calgary - mostly late in his career. However, you can see his fluctuating stats. Why? I think it was not only a slightly different team in front of him every year, but a different play style with regards to commitment to defence. His numbers reflect that. This is an important consideration with respect to Edmonton especially, as the NYR have one of the top defensive groups in the NHL, and Talbot is going to - without question - the absolute worst. Did they really watch him and do the eye test, or are they just basing it off his consistent display? I mean, most goalies will have their numbers drop, but some goalies do better than others behind porous defensive groups than others. Talbot will without question drop statistically, but by how much? Was there a better option out there who was more poor statistically, but who was more experienced playing on a defensively inept team?

Bryzgalov is a goalie that looked fantastic behind a solid system. Not so fantastic when he wasn't sheltered. The Scrivens example above is a good one, as is Dubynk. I think it was Bingo last year posted up an article about how a goalie can over-compensate in his position due to no longer trusting his teammates in front of him. They start to pick up bad habits. Dubynk is a goalie I had argued looked really good for Edmonton, and then he magically started getting worse. Scrivens I was never as high on, but he was a fairly reliable goalie more suited to a backup role - just like Cali said above - started out great and then started faltering. I think there is a certain truth to that article. Goalies like this will have horrible stats, but the eye test may show that they merely have bad tendencies that can be coached out again (like Dubynk) and with a bit of time behind a solid team-defensive structure.

I think goaltending is like every other position in hockey. You can't rely on stats only. There is a reason that some prospects that don't get drafted one year, are drafted in the subsequent draft. Others who aren't drafted and go on to post some very good offensive numbers still don't get drafted. We all know why - there is a significant issue with the prospect's game, a size limitation without a significant enough strength to balance it out, or he was simply the recipient of another prospect(s) who drove that line. Without using the eye test, we will never know if a certain high-end offensive dynamo could translate to the NHL (like a Gaudreau, or a Kane) vs not translating well (like a Baertschi, or like a Brendl). Of course you are going to scout and base your decisions on the eye test, not just go by the stats. Goalies are exactly the same. It really matters what style they play, how good their composure is, how good the defence in front of them are, etc. It matters quite a lot, even on the same team.

There are many good examples thus far. I expect there to be a few others as well. Interesting conversation.

I still think Ramo is the better choice - albeit a bit more risky - even though his numbers aren't so good. I do think Ramo is the better road goalie, and Hiller is the better home goalie, FWIW. I still have no idea how the goaltending shakes out this year and who they end up keeping. I just don't think they will look at their respective stats and determine it from there.

[Zamboniman]

Good article for the most part, but, as usual, Betteridge's Law Of Headlines applies: If a headline ends in question mark, the answer is always, "No."

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Timely saves is an excuse PBP announcers like to use when a goaltender having a bad game makes a save at the end of the game he was expected to make in the first period.
What are you talking about, for years Oilers fans and Flames fan Vernon haters have been using that argument for decades to pretend Fuhr was better than Vernon ;)

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.
I agree mostly, you would also have to look at volume of games, quality of opposition and number of starts on back to back nights, and number of teams faced on back to back nights.

Chances are, the way the Flames used their goalies you could probably assume the law of averages prevailed and it was pretty equal, but that's not always the case with how teams manage their goaltending. One guy often gets drawn a better hand lets say than the other.

[Frank MetaMusil]

What are you talking about, for years Oilers fans and Flames fan Vernon haters have been using that argument for decades to pretend Fuhr was better than Vernon ;)

This, and how many times did Hiller allow a goal on the first shot last season? I recall a few of those games.

[Vinny01]

I really think the Flames are destined to take the next step forward this year and level up to contender status by 16/17. A step back or regression would be disappointing but it is still possible. History has shown teams that get by one year with bad advanced stats can fall back to earth. I do think Calgary made 2 of the best pickups of any team this summer and by far the best of the teams that have regressed in the past. Colorado and Toronto did not add the right players or really improved their teams the year after making it to the playoffs. The flames added 2 players that fill huge needs and also have an elite prospect ready to join.

2 ways to slice it either the Flamea add Bennett, Hamilton, and Frolik to their regular season roster or add Giordano, Hamilton, Frolik to their playoff roster. Either way those are 3 highly impactful players joining the team.

[Badgers Nose]

Yes, about the same year our solar system's sun collapses.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Remember the year when Brent Sutter and Bouwmeester came on board, the Flames were picked to go far by most media outlets, but the one guy at TSN who picked them to miss the playoffs was lambasted here? I'm not saying that Willis right, but predicting the Flames fall back has just as much merit to it as saying they'll be a cup contender, until they can prove they can have repeatable success

[AcGold]

Win % seems like a way more pertinent goalie stat than save % as there is a synthesis between the goalies performance and on ice presence with how the team plays.

Maybe a goalie saves .920 of the shots but the team plays like ass in front of him because he has mental lapses where another goalie has .900 but is more consistently focused and his team plays better in front of him. The confidence Kiprusoff gave the team was palpable, they knew he was unlikely to let in a soft goal so they could take way more chances.

[Enoch Root]

I really think the Flames are destined to take the next step forward this year and level up to contender status by 16/17. A step back or regression would be disappointing but it is still possible. History has shown teams that get by one year with bad advanced stats can fall back to earth. I do think Calgary made 2 of the best pickups of any team this summer and by far the best of the teams that have regressed in the past. Colorado and Toronto did not add the right players or really improved their teams the year after making it to the playoffs. The flames added 2 players that fill huge needs and also have an elite prospect ready to join.

2 ways to slice it either the Flamea add Bennett, Hamilton, and Frolik to their regular season roster or add Giordano, Hamilton, Frolik to their playoff roster. Either way those are 3 highly impactful players joining the team.

If you look at the team that knocked Vancouver out of the playoffs and compare it to now, you get the following changes:

In ........... Out
Frolik ...... Raymond
Bouma .... Shore
Byron ..... Granlund (and Granlund isn't really gone)
Giordano . Diaz
Hamilton . Schlemko
Smid ...... Wotherspoon

plus,

Monahan
Hudler
Brodie
Russell
Colborne and
Jooris

were playing hurt.

[AltaGuy]

This thread just reminded me of something incredulous I read over on the other boards the other day. While discussing the idea of Eichel and McDavid joining forces on a line in the U23 tourny, someone posted (likely an Oil fan), "It would be amazing seeing the possession numbers those two could generate together". Or something to that effect.

I just thought to myself, "Ooo, possession numbers, how exciting. Much more exciting than big goals or passes or rushes or even - you know - watching actual possession on the ice. Nope, I would be so excited by those numbers once crunched the next day."

At any rate, neither here nor there, but the excitement over data was pretty weird to me.

[Resolute 14]

Ok. That's an excuse for not reading it. Lousy one for commenting on the content of an article you didn't read

Again, blame Sportsnet. Because the headline said something that people disagreed with. But hey, if defending misleading clickbait is your thing, then have at it.