ESPN Insider (not a member) on Worst Free Agents

[Bingo]

Can't read it but the opening is puzzling.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13676997/a-panel-34-hockey-analytics-experts-identifies-worst-five-signings-offseason-nhl

By and large, the perception within hockey's analytics community is that NHL front offices got things right this free agent season. Using a variety of statistical methods, the number-crunchers I polled could only find serious concerns with about a handful of deals, and could identify only two teams that might have made multiple errors -- Calgary and Colorado.

To arrive at these results, a diverse mega-panel of 34 prominent hockey statisticians was convened, and asked to either approve, disapprove, or express neutrality on this summer's 44 free-agent signings that involved an annual cap hit of at least $2 million, made on or after July 1. Each of these analysts used standards and approaches of their own choosing, but set aside unmeasurable factors such as heart, grit, leadership, and clutch play.

Huh?

Isn't Frolik the only signing, and a solid possession player?

[GranteedEV]

I'm guessing they're talking about Bouma, but Bouma's analytics are very misleading so NBD.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

It's ESPN. They are more into TMZ style reporting than actually talking about sports.

[Mitch]

In the article they pinpoint Ramo as the 3rd worst signing with the concern that there were better goalies available for cheaper. The only backup for this was looking at save percentage so take it for what it's worth. Nothing in the article mentions Frolik or Bouma.

[CroFlames]

Ramo is probably overpaid. But he was already property of the Flames so they didn't give anything up to acquire him before signing him.

Flames aren't in cap trouble, so the signing works.

[Locke]

Ramo is probably overpaid. But he was already property of the Flames so they didn't give anything up to acquire him before signing him.

Flames aren't in cap trouble, so the signing works.

I was thinking it had to be Ramo, but after his play in the playoffs maybe they're expecting big things from him?

[devo22]

In the article they pinpoint Ramo as the 3rd worst signing with the concern that there were better goalies available for cheaper. The only backup for this was looking at save percentage so take it for what it's worth. Nothing in the article mentions Frolik or Bouma.
what are the aforementioned "multiple errors" then, according to them? :blink:

Ramo might be overpaid, but it's a 1 year deal, so who cares?

[freakinsaprikin]

Kari Ramo was number 3 on worst signings of the summer.

The main contention is that we could have got a goaltender with a better save percentage over the time he is been back in the NHL for much cheaper.

They used Griess and McElhinney as examples of Goalies with comparable, but better save percentages, over the same period that signed for less then 2 million.

[Parallex]

I'm guessing they're talking about Bouma

Maybe Ramo as well... If you see Ramo strictly as a back-up then he does cost way to much (although considering that the Flames were in no danger of going over the cap this year and it's just a 1 year deal I don't have a problem with it).

[GranteedEV]

Kari Ramo was number 3 on worst signings of the summer.

The main contention is that we could have got a goaltender with a better save percentage over the time he is been back in the NHL for much cheaper.

They used Griess and McElhinney as examples of Goalies with comparable, but better save percentages, over the same period that signed for less then 2 million.

Thing is, save percentages won't tell you which backup goaltenders can take over as starters, their mental makeup, their work ethic, how they perform when the book on them is out there, etc. That's why guys like Scrivens and Fasth have been such disasters up North. We know for a fact that Ramo is a proven goaltender whose save percentage is more an indictment on how bad our middle and bottom pairings were defensively than how "average" he is.

[Ashasx]

Their List:

1. Francois Beauchemin
2. Matt Beleskey
3. Karri Ramo
4. Paul Martin
5. Blake Comeau

HM: Brad Richardson, Eric Fehr

TBH, their justification is whack. Ramo got a one-year deal from a team that will have no trouble finding that space for this season. The goalie market this off-season saw backups traded for ridiculous prices. The Flames rightfully played it safe because our future number one is already inside the organization.

I would rathe overpay Ramo slightly (for one season) than give up assets for a backup from another team.

The article is also riddled with spelling mistakes and is not of the quality I come to expect from ESPN Insider.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Kari Ramo was number 3 on worst signings of the summer.

The main contention is that we could have got a goaltender with a better save percentage over the time he is been back in the NHL for much cheaper.

They used Griess and McElhinney as examples of Goalies with comparable, but better save percentages, over the same period that signed for less then 2 million.



And that is exactly why you need to look at more than stats in this game..

McElhinney had a career year last year, but shows no signs of being an NHL starter. Ramo has already shown more in less NHL time.

[undercoverbrother]

Isn't ESPN's opinion on Hockey irrelevant?

[sureLoss]

While it is ESPN, article is written by Rob Vollman. A guy who Rob Kerr brings on Fan 960 regularly.

[ComixZone]

In the article they pinpoint Ramo as the 3rd worst signing with the concern that there were better goalies available for cheaper. The only backup for this was looking at save percentage so take it for what it's worth. Nothing in the article mentions Frolik or Bouma.

So we're singled out as one of the teams that made a huge mistake - and it's all because we signed a goalie who performed pretty well for us last season to a 1 year deal worth less than 4M?

ESPN, you just don't get it.

[home_sweet_dome]

Bouma is the 2nd culprit on his list as he mentions Bouma in an example and says that contract just missed the top 5 list.

Personally i don't think either deal is really that bad.

[Locke]

Their List:

1. Francois Beauchemin
2. Matt Beleskey
3. Karri Ramo
4. Paul Martin
5. Blake Comeau

HM: Brad Richardson, Eric Fehr

TBH, their justification is whack. Ramo got a one-year deal from a team that will have no trouble finding that space for this season. The goalie market this off-season saw backups traded for ridiculous prices. The Flames rightfully played it safe because our future number one is already inside the organization.

I would rathe overpay Ramo slightly (for one season) than give up assets for a backup from another team.

The article is also riddled with spelling mistakes and is not of the quality I come to expect from ESPN Insider.

Pretty much this, and in the meantime we keep a known quantity instead of gambling on someone else.

[northcrunk]

While it is ESPN, article is written by Rob Vollman. A guy who Rob Kerr brings on Fan 960 regularly.

Vollman is one of the worst guests on the Fan and I've stopped listening to Kerr in the afternoons because of these guys he keeps bringing on. Vollman and Thoman Drance are the two people that make me change the station when they come on. If I don't I end up yelling at the radio.

[lambeburger]

The article is also riddled with spelling mistakes and is not of the quality I come to expect from ESPN Insider.

Come to think of it, that's exactly what I come to expect from an ESPN Insider covering hockey.

[socktape]

While it is ESPN, article is written by Rob Vollman. A guy who Rob Kerr brings on Fan 960 regularly.

Rob's a habs fan. What does he know!

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Did they at least acknowledge that this summer was not full of the usual gawd-awful contracts that the UFAs tend to receive?
I don't think what Calgary did was anywhere close to terrible. Same goes for Colorado, for that matter.

[Huntingwhale]

ESPN.....diverse mega-panel of 34 prominent hockey statisticians.....ROFL

[Leeman4Gilmour]

While it is ESPN, article is written by Rob Vollman. A guy who Rob Kerr brings on Fan 960 regularly.

And he talked about it yesterday. I actually enjoy the perspective Vollman brings...anywho, Ramo and Bouma were among the worst, but he did qualify this by saying they were the worst amongst a pretty good year for signings. They both received below 50% approval from the "panel" with Ramo being pretty bad at around 20% iirc. Bouma was around 37% approval.

[Passe La Puck]

And he talked about it yesterday. I actually enjoy the perspective Vollman brings...anywho, Ramo and Bouma were among the worst, but he did qualify this by saying they were the worst amongst a pretty good year for signings. They both received below 50% approval from the "panel" with Ramo being pretty bad at around 20% iirc. Bouma was around 37% approval.

So basically the panel is full of idiots?

[Bingo]

not to mention asset management.

if the Flames deal either veteran goaltender for anything they have added value versus letting a guy go

[PeteMoss]

Ah... I can see the Bouma signing being on the list. Ramo... its not he's being paid that much and its only 1 year... who cares.

[JiriHrdina]

When I think about "bad deals" it is all about how it hurts the organization going forward.
So let's play this out.
- If Ramo isn't good, they walk away after this season. They have the cap space this year. No tangible cost
- If Bouma isn't good it isn't a long-term deal either and at most he is overpaid by a few hundred K. Big deal.

If indeed these represent the "worst" deals - then perhaps the headline and focus of the story should have been how GMs learned from past lessons and didn't hand out bad deals.

That being said - I'm also not an insider so didn't read it.

[Journey17]

FYI -contributors to the panel were Clare Austin, Steve Burtch, Matt Cane, Scott Cullen, John Fischer, Iain Fyffe, Domenic Galamini, Garik16, David Johnson, Cam Lawrence, Dom Luszczyszyn, Jen Lute Costella, Alexandra Mandrycky, Micah Blake McCurdy, Sean McIndoe, Nick Mercadante, Allan "Lowetide" Mitchell, Phil Myrland, Arik Parnass, Christophe Perreault, Megan Richardson, Alan Ryder, Michael Schuckers, Timo Seppa, Greg Sinclair, Dawson Sprigings, Ryan Stimson, Craig Tabita, Andrew Thomas, Robb Tufts, Josh Weissbock, Carolyn Wilke, Kent Wilson.

I really think the opening didn't convey the extent to which that GMs really controlled spending this year. Should have compared to past years excess.

I'm totally ok with Bouma and Ramo deals as relatively minor overpay when considering that Ramo might be the #1 and Bouma is a heart and soul guy who is making slightly more than his stats would say he is worth.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

This is simply ridiculous.

San Jose signed a 34 year old defenceman to a 4-year $4.9m contract, and gave a 34 year old Joel Ward a three year $3.3m contract.

They didn't make a single good free agent acquisition.

But somehow Calgary came out way worse because after acquiring one of the top free agent wingers, they renewed their 1b goalie to a one year "show me" contract, and overpaid a depth player by about $500k?

Laughable.

[Poe969]

So it was a diverse mega-panel of 34 prominent hockey statisticians...and Scott Cullen showed up before the closed the door so they let him stay

[Jacks]

So it was a diverse mega-panel of 34 prominent hockey statisticians...and Scott Cullen showed up before the closed the door so they let him stay
Cullen was the only name I recognized :bag:

[Jay Random]

Cullen was the only name I recognized :bag:

Just off the top of my head, I recognized Fyffe, McIndoe, and Wilson. Fyffe is a very shrewd guy, and was doing interesting statistical work on hockey years before it became fashionable. McIndoe, on the other hand, is not someone I think of as a stats guy at all. I think of him as Down Goes Brown.

[Parallex]

Ah... I can see the Bouma signing being on the list. Ramo... its not he's being paid that much and its only 1 year... who cares.

Yeah, but I see the point... spending 3.8M on your second goalie isn't very efficient spending. So taken in a vacumn it makes perfect sense. It's when you factor in the stuff outside the value/dollar aspect that the deal looks better in that it was effectively cap space that would be entirely left fallow anyways and has no negative consequences since it doesn't represent any future hinderance.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

This is simply ridiculous.

San Jose signed a 34 year old defenceman to a 4-year $4.9m contract, and gave a 34 year old Joel Ward a three year $3.3m contract.

They didn't make a single good free agent acquisition.

But somehow Calgary came out way worse because after acquiring one of the top free agent wingers, they renewed their 1b goalie to a one year "show me" contract, and overpaid a depth player by about $500k?

Laughable.

FFWIW, the criteria (off the top of my head) was it had to be a RFA or UFA signing after July 1st over $2MM a year. So Bieksa would not have been part of that although Joel Ward would have been. And, I agree, the Joel Ward is far worse than the Bouma. I was never a fan of the Ramo signing, but that's because I'm overly optimistic about Ortio.

Oh, and it wasn't a team evaluation, just an individual contract evaluation. The Frolik signing is probably rated pretty high (I can't read the article, just going off of the radio talk).

[Strange Brew]

I love Bouma and I'm glad he's on the team. But the Flames overpaid on that deal. It is far from crippling I was surprised at the dollar and term.

[Enoch Root]

Flames didn't overpay for Bouma. But whatever.

I listened to Vollman talk about this on the FAN yesterday. First of all, he did mention several times that there really weren't ANY horrible contracts this year.

He talked about how term was far more dangerous than money and it was term that gets teams in trouble. Then he talked about the 3rd worst contract being Ramo's $3.8M and never mentioned that it was only one year.

I agree that $3.8M was too much for Ramo.

But if that is the worst FA signing we see here, the Flames are in good hands.

[corporatejay]

One year deals that don't handicap you in the current season should never be considered a bad deal. It's not your money, what do you care.

[Resolute 14]

As you can guess by the "diverse" panel of statisticians, Rob Vollman is an analytics guy. So, as usual, he and his echo chamber/panel are looking at things exclusively on the basis of what their spreadsheet says without regard to anything Excel can't tell them.

[Komskies]

Just off the top of my head, I recognized Fyffe, McIndoe, and Wilson. Fyffe is a very shrewd guy, and was doing interesting statistical work on hockey years before it became fashionable. McIndoe, on the other hand, is not someone I think of as a stats guy at all. I think of him as Down Goes Brown.

Not a stats guy, but he clearly knows hockey pretty well, and once you cut through all of the jokes he actually has well-informed hockey analysis.

[sketchyt]

They used Griess and McElhinney as examples of Goalies with comparable, but better save percentages, over the same period that signed for less then 2 million.

Anyone who watches hockey and knows a little bit about goaltending know there are numerous reasons these two guys are constantly a foot away from the AHL.

If the Flames had signed one of these two guys and expect him to stay in the NHL all year I can almost guarantee the playoffs go out the window.

[Bingo]

I think the Wings and that Green deal could be the worst free agent signing of the summer personally. That's a lot to pay for a one dimensional defenseman that tends to be a fire drill in his own zone.

Having said that the Wideman deal in Calgary was similar and that worked out pretty good for the Flames.

[Jay Random]

Not a stats guy, but he clearly knows hockey pretty well, and once you cut through all of the jokes he actually has well-informed hockey analysis.

I agree with this. I was just a bit surprised to see him on a panel of stats guys. And a bit sad to find that I only recognized four names, and one of them for reasons that had nothing to do with his statistical analysis.

[getbak]

FYI -contributors to the panel were Clare Austin, Steve Burtch, Matt Cane, Scott Cullen, John Fischer, Iain Fyffe, Domenic Galamini, Garik16, David Johnson, Cam Lawrence, Dom Luszczyszyn, Jen Lute Costella, Alexandra Mandrycky, Micah Blake McCurdy, Sean McIndoe, Nick Mercadante, Allan "Lowetide" Mitchell, Phil Myrland, Arik Parnass, Christophe Perreault, Megan Richardson, Alan Ryder, Michael Schuckers, Timo Seppa, Greg Sinclair, Dawson Sprigings, Ryan Stimson, Craig Tabita, Andrew Thomas, Robb Tufts, Josh Weissbock, Carolyn Wilke, Kent Wilson.
That list is a real Who's Who. As I read it, I just kept repeating "Who?"

http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/14/142946/3981533-6503022817-39686.gif

[dash_pinched]

Garik16, sounds like something out of Seinfeld?

NRUdaWZ4FN0

[mikephoen]

I'm pretty sure Vollman is the analytics guy that Kerr had on last year who kept pronouncing Matt Carle's name as 'Matt CARLY'. The guy obviously only looks at spreadsheets if he doesn't even know how a 10 year NHL vet pronounces his name. There was no way I could take anything he had to say seriously after that.

[Textcritic]

Yeah, but I see the point... spending 3.8M on your second goalie isn't very efficient spending. So taken in a vacumn it makes perfect sense...
I would say that this way of thinking also does not factor into the equation how the Flames are built. The thing is that Ramo is not a backup goaltender—he and Hiller are pretty much a tandem. In this sort of a structure in which the goalies are on a truly balanced rotation, both are likely going to make ALOT more than a second goalie from a team that also has a clear starter.

This is dumb.

[Strange Brew]

Most of the time, the only reason a 1 year deal is bad for the team is when they should have locked him in for longer term.

Ramo's deal does not hurt the Flames at all.

[calgaryblood]

The best coaches and GM's in history can't figure out goalies yet this analytics guy think he can use a spreadsheet to come to a conclusion.

[old-fart]

Based on this, he didn't even use a spreadsheet - he looked at one single number. Save Percentage. That's it. Not games played, not wins, not GAA. Just save percentage. Based on that, and only that, he determined Ramo's deal is bad because there are other goalies, who played and won less than Ramo, who make less.

Vollman is a tool. I too either laugh, or change the channel when he comes on the Fan.

With respect to Bouma - is there anyone who thinks that if the Flames put Bouma on waivers that he would clear? He would be snapped up, even with his "bad contract" in a New York Minute by every single team that had enough cap space to do so. Because NHL GMs use more than a spreadsheet or, in the case of Vollman's goalie analysis, a BBQ sauce stained napkin from Burger King.

[ricardodw]

any UFA, just by being a UFA signed the first day gets overpaid. Very few work out.

Frolik is getting paid top-6 money for a long time where he hasn't been a solid top-6 guy for the last 4 years. Money and term for potential, when the risk was not required.

Frolik signing puts the Flames in a bind to sign Hudler.

[GioforPM]

any UFA, just by being a UFA signed the first day gets overpaid. Very few work out.

Frolik is getting paid top-6 money for a long time where he hasn't been a solid top-6 guy for the last 4 years. Money and term for potential, when the risk was not required.

Frolik signing puts the Flames in a bind to sign Hudler.

What did you say when Hudler was signed?

[Enoch Root]

His points, 113th among forwards, would argue your point