Rube's 2015 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[rubecube]

It's a new season! Finished last year with a respectable 54-48-3 record ATS. It's week 1, so I'm playing a lot of games because usually the books are slightly off for the first two weeks.

Here we go!

PIT +7 (push)
JAX +3
NYJ -3.5
GB -6.5
BUF +2.5
STL +4
ARI -2.5
DEN -4
NYG +6
PHI -3

[Jason14h]

Lots of home team underdogs. Historically the home team covers a higher percentage of these situations. Also good for teasing in a 4 teamer.

[Sylvanfan]

I must like the Dolphins too much and dislike the Skins to a point where I think 3.5 points for the Fins is a no brainer. Granted...I'm at work I can't access proper gambling sites...only wclc.

[Sylvanfan]

Good start for you. 7-1-1 with Monday to go.

[rubecube]

I added the Fins yesterday day, too, so 8-1-1.

[GirlySports]

The Browns are -3 against the Titans! Bet everything on the Titans NOW!!!!!

[Sylvanfan]

Last I saw Lovie Smith as first coach to be fired was 10 to 1.

[Sylvanfan]

I see that the Chiefs are opening as the favorite against Denver.

I'd bet my house on the Bronco's. Manning is 6-0 against the Chiefs and only in one game did it ever look like the Chiefs had a chance to win. KC is still playing without Sean Smith who's their best cover corner, and Dontari Poe is a still beat up which impacts the edge rushers being able to get to the QB, and will allow the Donkeys to run the ball at will. The prolific duo of Mallet and Hoyer lit up the Chiefs for like 400 yards passing. So I would expect Denver to rebound big time, and their defence will absolutely abuse KC's offensive line which is still horribly weak.

I would expect Denver to win this game like 28-6. No way KC can mount an offensive touch down against that group.

[Weitz]

Took a parlay of Chiefs, Bills, and Packers risked 6 to win 30 on sunday. Was nice to start the year off in the positive.

[rubecube]

I see that the Chiefs are opening as the favorite against Denver.

I'd bet my house on the Bronco's. Manning is 6-0 against the Chiefs and only in one game did it ever look like the Chiefs had a chance to win. KC is still playing without Sean Smith who's their best cover corner, and Dontari Poe is a still beat up which impacts the edge rushers being able to get to the QB, and will allow the Donkeys to run the ball at will. The prolific duo of Mallet and Hoyer lit up the Chiefs for like 400 yards passing. So I would expect Denver to rebound big time, and their defence will absolutely abuse KC's offensive line which is still horribly weak.

I would expect Denver to win this game like 28-6. No way KC can mount an offensive touch down against that group.

I just don't touch Thursday night games. Too much weird #### happens.

[Hockey]

I like Pittsburgh this week. San Fran is coming off a short week and traveling to the east coast. 10am kickoff and of course Pittsburgh had extra days rest.

[DropIt]

only really felt good about the Giants +7 and the Packers -6.5. parlayed them both at $25 and won a good cushion for the season. Going to take Sylvan's advice this week, since he seems to feel the way I did about Chicago last week

[rubecube]

8-2-1 last week. Now week 2 a.k.a. the week where everyone overreacts to week 1. This is the week where I look for spreads that should be a couple points higher or lower.

HOU +3
TB +9
PIT -6.5
TEN -1.5 (hate this pick right after I made it)
WSH +3
BAL -6.5
SEA +3.5
PHI -5
NYJ +7

[Sylvanfan]

I didn't have the guts to bet my house on the Bronco's last night...only $20.

Still the winnings can feed my family this weekend!

[transplant99]

With what may be the difference in the GB/SEA game, the Packers have announced that starting RT Brian Bulaga is out 4-6 weeks with surgery on a torn meniscus. His replacement Don Barclay hasn't played since 2013.

Seattles front 7 should be licking their chops. Hawks +3 1/2 is a pretty good value bet in this spot now.

[rubecube]

Got too cocky last week and went 4-5. Now 12-7-1 for the year. I'm on way too many games again this week. Strategically speaking, there's too much of my bankroll in play (about 35% when I should be in the 20% range). Anyways...

ATL -2
STL +1.5
MIN -2.5
TB +6.5
NYJ -2
OAK +4
AZ -6.5
DEN -3
GB -7

[malcolmk14]

I'm 11-8-0 ATS this year.

[DropIt]

Dropped all of the monies on SEA +15 this week.

My picks this week are PIT, SEA, BUF, ATL, TB, KC

[rubecube]

Which crazy site is giving you +15 on Seattle? :-P

[transplant99]

Carolina is -9.5. Sounded absurd and a game to avoid until I read this about Luke McCown who starts for NO today.

He hasn’t thrown a pass since 2013, hasn’t completed a pass since 2011 and hasn’t thrown a TD pass since 2007.

His last NFL start was brutal (six completions and four interceptions in a 32-3 loss for the Jacksonville Jaguars (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/jax/jacksonville-jaguars) at the New York Jets (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/nyj/new-york-jets) in Week 2 of the 2011 season


This game could be fugly as the Saints O line is a train wreck to begin with. I'm layin the points.

[DropIt]

Which crazy site is giving you +15 on Seattle? :-P

Lol -15 seems a bit more realistic I guess. Although they may as well be the same thing.

Also liking JKV as I think they aren't getting much respect here. They are down 10 right now bit I think they can stay within that 2 TD range this week

[Sylvanfan]

Carolina is -9.5. Sounded absurd and a game to avoid until I read this about Luke McCown who starts for NO today.



This game could be fugly as the Saints O line is a train wreck to begin with. I'm layin the points.

Yeah and my Survivor pick of Carolina ain't looking so good right now.

[malcolmk14]

5-5-0 this morning, picked Patriots -14, Bengals +3, Saints +8, Eagles +3, and Texans -7.

Have Arizona -6.5, Miami -3, and Chicago +15 in the afternoon.

[rubecube]

6-3 last wee and 18-10-1 for the year. Week 4 has historically been a crappy week for me but I'll try to buck the trend this year.

ATL -6.5
WSH +3
NYJ -1
CIN -4
SF +8
DEN -7
BUF -5.5
ARI -7

[Sylvanfan]

So wclc pulled the Jacksonville Indy game this morning after word of Lucks injury spread. Even with Luck in I was still contemplating playing a tie there.

[DropIt]

took GB -9. At least if I have to watch the Packers roll teams up I may as well win some money off it

[DropIt]

6-3 last wee and 18-10-1 for the year. Week 4 has historically been a crappy week for me but I'll try to buck the trend this year.

ATL -6.5
WSH +3
NYJ -1
CIN -4
SF +8
DEN -7
BUF -5.5
ARI -7

good morning, brutal afternoon

[malcolmk14]

I had Chicago +3 and Minnesota +7 today!

6-5-0 against the spread today and I have Seattle -10 tomorrow.

Total ROI so far this season is 7.47% not including any bonuses.

[GirlySports]

So wclc pulled the Jacksonville Indy game this morning after word of Lucks injury spread. Even with Luck in I was still contemplating playing a tie there.


It was a tie! Lots of ties this week.

[CrazyCaper]

Anyone else here play Pools on Sportselect? Just threw $5 down this morning and my only loss up to this point is Arizona. Have the Cowboys tonight and Seahawks tomorrow. What are the chances of me actually getting some money out of this ticket?

[Sylvanfan]

It was a tie! Lots of ties this week.

Due to the invalidity of that game my ticket of Jax/Indy, Was/Philly, and St.L/Az to tie never got played. Two other guys behind me in line also tossed their tickets when the clerk told me game number 3 had been pulled. Jerks.

[DropIt]

Anyone else here play Pools on Sportselect? Just threw $5 down this morning and my only loss up to this point is Arizona. Have the Cowboys tonight and Seahawks tomorrow. What are the chances of me actually getting some money out of this ticket?

Pretty much zero now. Also with no real upsets there was likely a perfect run

[GirlySports]

guy at work picked 3 ties yesterday, OAK-CHI, PHI-WSH and DAL-NOR

that hurts :(

[rubecube]

I know the Saints are bad and the Eagles are at home, but there's no way the Eagles should be -4.5 over anyone in the league right now. That's a -3 at best and likely should be a pick 'em. I'm definitely banging the Saints.

[rubecube]

Also, what have the Chiefs done to be favoured by 10 over anyone?

[Jason14h]

Also, what have the Chiefs done to be favoured by 10 over anyone

Not protect the QB that's for sure!

And thanks Jack kicker for missing the winning FG twice and costing me $500 on this parlay last weekend all money lines

GB
ATL
GIANTS
JACK

[Sylvanfan]

Also, what have the Chiefs done to be favoured by 10 over anyone?

Name me another team that kicked 7 field goals in the same game.

[DropIt]

Im sure I picked far too many this week after a mild 3 bets last week.

BUF -3, Over 42
Jax +3, Over 42
GB-9
ATL-8
NYG-7, Under 43

[rubecube]

4-4 last week, so 22-14-1 for the season.

CHI +9.5
NO +4.5
WSH +7
STL +9.5
NE -8.5
ARI -2.5
NYG -6.5

[rubecube]

4-3 last week, 26-17-1 on the season.

ARI -3
CHI +3
TEN -1
CAR +7
SD +10.5
DEN -4
SF +2
NE -7.5

[Sylvanfan]

What's the line on the Cheifs at Minnesota? If it's less than 14 points I'd be jumping all over the Vikings off a bye to annihilate a hapless Chiefs team that won't be able to do anything on offence.

[rubecube]

What's the line on the Cheifs at Minnesota? If it's less than 14 points I'd be jumping all over the Vikings off a bye to annihilate a hapless Chiefs team that won't be able to do anything on offence.
Vikings offence hasn't been anything to write home about either. It has all the makings makings of a thrilling 13-10 contest.

[rubecube]

Sigh. 3-4-1 last week, 29-21-2 for the year. How the #### do you lose to Landry Jones, Arizona? How? Cards are starting to remind me of the Saints from a few years ago. Absolutely dominant at home but pretty meek on the road.

On another, I'm debating whether I should do a gambling podcast. Not because I know what I'm talking about or anything, just because it might be funny for people to hear my thought process and then mock me mercilessly. If people end up listening to it that is. I'm not really sure how you go about promoting these things.

Anyways, on to this week.

JAX +4.5
NYJ +8
TEN +5
WSH -3.5
IND -4
SD -3.5
NYG -3.5
CAR/PHI U45.5

[Sylvanfan]

Don't mind the Jacksonville play, we'll find out if them regularly going to London and knowing what to expect eventually starts to result in them doing better in these games. Either way, Bortles has been playing reasonably well and Buffalo's offence is pretty scattered.

Like the Jets to cover against the Patriots this week. New England is pretty banged up on the offensive line and the Jets have good corners and line backers to cover the Pats weapons.

I don't like your Tennessee +5 at home to Atlanta. The Falcons have had a longer week and Mariota got banged up against Miami. Even with the Titans at home I expect Atlanta to play well coming off the loss and having had extra prep time.

Washington -3.5 over Tampa seems reasonable. The Skins have been up and down all year, they were bad last week in the second half against the Jets. Tampa is tough to predict as they're either bad or not quite as bad as the other team.

Indy -4 against New Orleans, I don't like that one for you. New Orleans has had extra time and Brees is starting to show some life on offence. Indy did play the Pats reasonably well, but I still don't see a Fletcher Cox in their defence to destroy the Saints like what happened against Philly.

Don't like San Diego at -3.5 against the Raiders coming off a bye. I think this years Raiders are a vastly improved team and will be a field goal apart max. These last two losses for the Chargers will take a toll on them.

Giants as a 3.5 at home against the Boys...I might personally avoid that game myself, Dallas could be a bit unpredictable this week. The fundamentals support the play as Matt Cassel is crap, and Dallas' run game is also mediocre this year. But they are off a bye and the Giants played on Monday night.

Carolina and Philly under 45.5...hmmm Seattle and Carolina were 50 last week. Phillies offence looks to be improving and their defence is good, but is it at the same level of Seattle's at home? I think I'd play the over here.

[rubecube]

Don't mind the Jacksonville play, we'll find out if them regularly going to London and knowing what to expect eventually starts to result in them doing better in these games. Either way, Bortles has been playing reasonably well and Buffalo's offence is pretty scattered.

Yep, and as well as Buffalo's D line has played, their secondary has been bad (mostly due to injuries).

Like the Jets to cover against the Patriots this week. New England is pretty banged up on the offensive line and the Jets have good corners and line backers to cover the Pats weapons.

I think they'll be able to move Brady around in the pocket which is when he tends to struggle. I also like the match-up of Marshall and Decker against New England's corners.

I don't like your Tennessee +5 at home to Atlanta. The Falcons have had a longer week and Mariota got banged up against Miami. Even with the Titans at home I expect Atlanta to play well coming off the loss and having had extra prep time.

Mettenberger has gotten all the reps this week and is pretty comfortable in this offense. Atlanta also has a history of playing down to their opponents. They very easily could be 1-6 right now.

Indy -4 against New Orleans, I don't like that one for you. New Orleans has had extra time and Brees is starting to show some life on offence. Indy did play the Pats reasonably well, but I still don't see a Fletcher Cox in their defence to destroy the Saints like what happened against Philly.

Fair enough. All of the Saints' losses this year have come against pretty good defenses, something the Colts definitely don't have.

Don't like San Diego at -3.5 against the Raiders coming off a bye. I think this years Raiders are a vastly improved team and will be a field goal apart max. These last two losses for the Chargers will take a toll on them.

The bye week thing tends to be over-exaggerated. Teams that have good records coming off the bye tend to just be good teams with good coaches. The Raiders do not fit this description. Oakland has also had a lot of trouble stopping TEs this year, so I'm expecting Rivers and Gates to light them up.

Giants as a 3.5 at home against the Boys...I might personally avoid that game myself, Dallas could be a bit unpredictable this week. The fundamentals support the play as Matt Cassel is crap, and Dallas' run game is also mediocre this year. But they are off a bye and the Giants played on Monday night.

I think the Giants are probably the best team in the NFC East. They played a really dumb and sloppy game against the Eagles that they probably should've won if they had limited the mistakes.

Carolina and Philly under 45.5...hmmm Seattle and Carolina were 50 last week. Phillies offence looks to be improving and their defence is good, but is it at the same level of Seattle's at home? I think I'd play the over here.

I actually don't really think the offense has gotten much better. The run game is still getting stuffed in the backfield way too often. The offensive line is committing way too many penalties and mental errors. The WRs are still dropping balls, and Bradford still looks terrible. I think they'll be lucky to put up more than 17 against a good Panthers defense. I'm expecting something like a 24-17 Panthers win.

[rubecube]

Added STL - 6 this morning.

[rubecube]

6-3? I'm trying to be a dick. I'm just drunk. It's 6-3, right?

[rubecube]

6-3? I'm trying to be a dick. I'm just drunk. It's 6-3, right?

Actually, 6-4, you useless, drunk #######. 35-25-2 for the year.

KC -3.5
NYG +3
SD +3.5
CHI ML
CIN/PIT O48.5
STL -8
TB +7.5
SEA -5
CAR -7

[rubecube]

Forgot about this. Apparently I made a bunch of preseason bets on teams O/U for wins. I'm not going to count them as part my regular picks, but I'll put them down here for record keeping.

CHI - O7
DEN - O10.5
PHI - O9.5
NO - U8.5
DET O8.5
IND U10.5
JAX U5.5
MIA U8.5
NYJ U7.5
SD U8
STL O8

Looks like I'll likely go 7-5, or best case scenario 8-4.

[Sylvanfan]

KC -3.5

Taking the Chiefs as a favorite seems a touch risky here in a neutral site game. Landry Jones looked like a rookie last week, but every other QB looks like Brady against them.

NYG +3

Giants on the road, I think that one's a bit risky too. The Giants seem to have a team policy where they don't like playing two good games in a row. They've been murdered their last couple visits to New Orleans.

SD +3.5

I can get on board with this pick just because both teams like to play close games, and neither one seems to like winning them. Picking Rivers for that last minute BS back door cover, tends to work.

CHI ML

Given the odds, likely worth it. I still think the Vikings are starting to find their form as a team. They've been pretty good since that disasterous week 1 game.

CIN/PIT O48.5

With Roethlisberger back, and some injuries on defence, seems like a good bet to me.

STL -8

St.Louis should be able to cover this spread. But a bit like the Giants...they seem to insist on playing bad every other week, or not want to win games that could really improve their place in the standings.

TB +7.5

Your theory of Atlanta playing at their opponents level held true last week. No reason to abandon it.

SEA -5

Matt Cassel is playing QB for the Cowboys against a somewhat rested Seahawks team. This should be shooting fish in a barrel, even if Dez Bryant is back, Matt Cassel's arm isn't strong enough to throw the ball to the side lines.

CAR -7

Colts on the road against a team that defends like the Panthers, they should be able to cover this spread.

[rubecube]

KC -3.5

Taking the Chiefs as a favorite seems a touch risky here in a neutral site game. Landry Jones looked like a rookie last week, but every other QB looks like Brady against them.

My only reason for this was because of how horribad Detroit's run defense has been and how good KC's can be. Then I remembered Andy Reid and immediately regretted my decision. The points were the right play here. I may try to hedge by taking Detroit ML.

NYG +3

Giants on the road, I think that one's a bit risky too. The Giants seem to have a team policy where they don't like playing two good games in a row. They've been murdered their last couple visits to New Orleans.


I read a couple of years ago that a really good way to pick games was to check the games a team has played against their opponent's divisional rivals. I can't remember the reasoning behind it, but I've employed it a few times with pretty good success. The Saints barely beat a Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys team, and got smoked by the Eagles (who are bad). The Giants should be able to keep it within a field goal if they don't totally implode, which they have a tendency to do.

[Sylvanfan]

I hope you didn't get that Detroit moneyline bet in. Lions have been far worse than I anticipated

[rubecube]

I hope you didn't get that Detroit moneyline bet in. Lions have been far worse than I anticipated
Nope. Stayed away.

[Frequitude]

Oh man the Lions o-line was bad. Stafford's going to be tender in the morning.

[rubecube]

Adding DEN ML for tonight.

[rubecube]

5-4-1 last week, which brings me to a 40-29-3 record for the year. Not feeling as confident about my picks this week, which is usually when I should start looking at taking over/unders but I completely forgot about that. Anyways...

CAR +2.5
OAK +4
MIN -2
BUF -2.5
ATL -7
DEN -5
DAL +3
CHI +4

[Sylvanfan]

To date I think we should have established that if I oppose one of your picks...you are right to make that pick. If we agree, you got it wrong. If I'm leery about it, it's probably 50-50.

Carolina as a 2.5 dog hosting Green Bay. The Packers offence isn't the unit it had been. Had Carolina finished better against the Colts, I'd like this pick, but once the Colts just started hucking the ball down the field they were able to move the ball. I'm leery of this game for the Green Bay bounce back factor.

Oakland +4 at Pittsburgh, There is something that makes me hesitate a bit only because the Raiders lost in Chicago. West Coast teams can struggle playing that 1 Eastern start time. But the Raiders have really been playing well, and Pittsburgh has not. So given the choice I'd stick with your play.

Minnesota -2 at home against the Rams..Vikings at home have been good, so yeah that's probably the play I'd make there too. The Rams are starting show a bit of consistency and that they are a talented team.

Buffalo as a 2.5 favorite hosting the fish. Back to the bye vs non bye thing. Can Rex rally the Bills off the bye? With Taylor looking to be back in the fold the Bills should be able to get back on track. Although my hesitation here lies in the fact that it's tough to sweep a set of Division games against an opponent unless you're one of those elite teams or they're just lousy. The Dolphins under Campbell aren't lousy and the Bills aren't elite.

Right now anyone with 7 points against the Niners is a pretty good play. That offence is bleeding points against, and the defence can't outscore what the offence gives up. Even with the Falcons flaws and inconsistency, it's Blaine freaking Gabbert.

Denver -5 against anyone not named New England right now looks like a solid pick. The Colts showed some life, but this isn't the week where Luck will have time to sit in the pocket and go deep. Indy sucked at the tempo based short passing game with Pep Hamilton, and that's about the only chance you'll get to move the ball against the Broncos, especially with their dumpster fire run game.

Going with the Boys? I think you're a touch too pessimistic on your crew. Dallas' offence right now is pretty woeful until Tony Romo can take snaps. Their defence has been pretty solid, but I think the Eagles will cover 3 points against a team who will struggle to kick more than 4 field goals.

Chicago +4 at San Diego. If you look the common opponent in Oakland, than it's a good bet. Both teams are beat to crap with injuries, but the Chargers are likely suffering worse.

[rubecube]

Going with the Boys? I think you're a touch too pessimistic on your crew. Dallas' offence right now is pretty woeful until Tony Romo can take snaps. Their defence has been pretty solid, but I think the Eagles will cover 3 points against a team who will struggle to kick more than 4 field goals.


Four field goals might be enough to beat this lousy Eagles offense that's likely going to be missing Jason Peters and Ryan Mathews. I'm also predicting Dallas gets a defensive of special teams TD.

[rubecube]

Perfect morning but the afternoon isn't looking great.

[Frequitude]

I went 7-1 in the morning thanks in large part to your picks. Keep it up!

[rubecube]

Crap, forgot to post these .

PHI - 5.5
JAX +5
PIT - 7
TB - 2
DEN - 6.5
NE - 7
SEA - 3

[GirlySports]

i heard that straight up favorites were 2-13 this week with tonight to go. Only NE and Pit won.

Pools this week will be a low score. Maybe only 8 or 9 out of 13?

[Frequitude]

Well I put up my worst week yet. 5-8. I was going to blame rubecube since I couldn't steal his choices, but most of my wins actually game from the set he just posted. I pretty much got every one of my own choices wrong.

[Sylvanfan]

There was some good money to make for those bold enough to take teams like Detroit, Chicago, Jacksonville, and Kansas City on a money line play.

[GirlySports]

Bungles lose.

What's the winning pools ticket going to be? 11/14? maybe?

[Hockey]

i heard that straight up favorites were 2-13 this week with tonight to go. Only NE and Pit won.

Pools this week will be a low score. Maybe only 8 or 9 out of 13?

I got 2 games right in one of my pools. Minny and NE. I was only trying to reach with Browns and Titans.

[rubecube]

Well I put up my worst week yet. 5-8. I was going to blame rubecube since I couldn't steal his choices, but most of my wins actually game from the set he just posted. I pretty much got every one of my own choices wrong.
Yeah I messed up. I usually do them on Fridays at work but I had to go off site on this past one, so I didn't actually get to it until Sunday morning and had to rush to get them in.

[GirlySports]

wclc pools 3 people got 12/13

ontario pool 6 people got 12/13

amazing.

[rubecube]

Well despite doing a rushed job last week, I ended up 4-4, putting me 49-36-3 for the year. Looking like some crazy overreactions to last week's games, and some general weirdness altogether (only 1 home dog). This might be one of those weeks to go against the grain.

CAR -7.5
OAK ML
DAL -1
DEN -1
GB ML
CIN +5
SD/KC O45

[rubecube]

And just for fun (I'm not adding it to the overall season record either way), I threw $5 down on a ML dog parlay of IND, SD, STL, GB, TB, CIN.

[Sylvanfan]

Given the Chargers injury problems at receiver and the offensive line as well as KC's field goal happy offence, that one likely ends up being a 31-28 game with one team converting 3 TD's for 2 points to get to 31.

[rubecube]

5-2 last week brings me to 54-38-3 for the year. Really mad I didn't get in on the Panthers and Lions yesterday.

MIN +1.5
CIN -8
NYG -2.5
NYJ -3.5
TB ML
DEN +2.5
CLE -3

[Frequitude]

Thanks Rube. I'm holding onto the lead in my office pool thanks to you.

[rubecube]

Thanks Rube. I'm holding onto the lead in my office pool thanks to you.
Haha no problem. If I ever get off my ass and do a podcast, I can probably do a better job of explaining why I make my picks. I actually recorded a test run a few weeks ago but found I ended up babbling too much and the whole thing ended up being 90 minutes long or so. I figure no one has time for that, so I'm going to try and condense it into an hour or so on the next attempt. Mind you the season is almost over at this point.

[Frequitude]

I'd listen. I've been in the work ATS pool for a few years now and joined a fantasy league with buddies this year. Sunday's are much more fun with vested interest.

With the rest of the picks I've gone

Oak -1.5
KC -5
Jax -3.5
Hou -3
Ari -10.5
Pit +4

But I'm essentially as good as a monkey picking. Thoughts?

[rubecube]

I'd listen. I've been in the work ATS pool for a few years now and joined a fantasy league with buddies this year. Sunday's are much more fun with vested interest.

With the rest of the picks I've gone

Oak -1.5
KC -5
Jax -3.5
Hou -3
Ari -10.5
Pit +4

But I'm essentially as good as a monkey picking. Thoughts?

I can't really argue with any of those. Sort of along the lines of what I was thinking but just didn't feel strong enough on the games to put money down. The ones I would probably change would be the KC and Jacksonville bets. One of the things I've tried to do this year is approach sports betting like I approach poker, where I make bets that I feel should win the majority of the time. So as an example, I would look at the Jacksonville game and think, if they played that game 100 times, how many times do I think Jacksonville would win by more than 3.5. If I see it as 50/50, or in that range, I usually stay away because the odds in my mind don't match up to the potential profit. It's obviously not as scientific as poker, because my biases and perceptions make the calculations much more arbitrary than the mathematical odds you have in poker.

[Frequitude]

Done and done, boss. Thank you.

[malcolmk14]

5-2 last week brings me to 54-38-3 for the year. Really mad I didn't get in on the Panthers and Lions yesterday.

MIN +1.5
CIN -8
NYG -2.5
NYJ -3.5
TB ML
DEN +2.5
CLE -3

I went with:

MIN +1
STL +9
NYG -3
MIA +4
IND -3
DEN +3
CLE -3

Bolded the picks that are different from yours! Good luck!

[rubecube]

4-3 last week and 58-41-3 on the year. Not feeling great about my picks this week but we'll see.

CIN -10
JAX ML
SF +7.5
BUF -3
ARI -5
TB ML
DEN -3.5
PIT -7
CAR -7
NE -10

The ones I'm kinda feeling iffy and on are Carolina and Cincy.

[Sylvanfan]

Oakland +2.5 at home to KC and Washington -4.5 stand out to me as favorable bets for this week.

[Sylvanfan]

Oakland +2.5 at home to KC and Washington -4.5 stand out to me as favorable bets for this week.

[Frequitude]

Thanks gents.

A couple notable changes on Yahoo's lines:
Tampa is -2...still take them?
Pittsburgh is -10...still take them?

My picks on the other games:
Baltimore +4 vs Miami
Seattle ML @ Minnesota
NYG +2 vs NYJ

Thoughts?

[rubecube]

I liked the Giants, Seahawks, Ravens for what it's worth.

[rubecube]

7-3 last week and now 65-44-3 for the year, inching closer to that 60% mark.

PIT ML
BUF +1
CHI -3.5
NO +4.5
NE -3.5
DEN -7
GB -6.5
SD +10.5
SF ML
CAR -7.5

[Frequitude]

Went 9-5 yesterday and opened up a 5 game lead in my pool. Thanks rube. I've picked NYG -1.5 tonight.

[rubecube]

Not related to the NFL, but I bet $50 on Clemson to win the college national championship. Most of the advanced analytics I've seen has them at 33% chance to win and the odds were basically 6-1 so that's an easy decision to make.

[rubecube]

6-4 last week brings me to 71-48-3 for the year. I'm not super confident about my picks this week and probably should've stayed away from a few of these games, but here we are.

Also my futures bet of the week is Pittsburgh +1110 to win the Super Bowl, though I also like Seattle at 8 to 1.

NYJ -3.5
JAX -3
WAS ML
KC -7
NYG +4
OAK +3
PHI +3.5
DET +2.5

[Sylvanfan]

Out of those picks the two that I'd question you on are:

Giants +4 against the Panthers. Giants are at home, and Eli was on point last week, but Carolina looked really good against Atlanta. The Giants defence is pretty suspect, and if Norman can neutralize OBJ, I don't think the rest of the Giants weapons do much to scare anyone.

Raiders to cover 3 points against Green Bay would have me leery too. Raiders are a team that seems to struggle with success and that win over Denver last week may skew how they had been playing lately. With McCarthy back in charge of calling plays, I think Green Bay is going to score more than they have been. Again, more feeling based than fact.

The odds on Pittsburgh for the Superbowl look pretty good. To me their biggest hurdle is going to be making the playoffs. But I don't think both the Jets and Chiefs will win out. One of those teams will screw up and lose a game. Once the Steelers get into the playoff picture, I think those odds will come down.

[rubecube]

The Giants were mostly a contrarian pick because I think everyone is going to be on the Panthers and Vegas still hasn't bumped up the line. With the Raiders I actually almost bet the money line.

[Frequitude]

Well I'm holding on to a 4 point lead thanks to you boys. The Giants miracle comeback was huge. Totally differentiated me from those close behind.

Right now I've got Oak -5 vs SD for tomorrow. Thoughts?

[Sylvanfan]

Well I'm holding on to a 4 point lead thanks to you boys. The Giants miracle comeback was huge. Totally differentiated me from those close behind.

Right now I've got Oak -5 vs SD for tomorrow. Thoughts?

When I was trying to handicap that one myself, I was thinking Oakland would be a 5 point favorite.

San Diego is coming off a big emotional win last week, travelling to play a Christmas eve game on a short week that means nothing to them. They can't run the ball and Kalil Mack should be able to tee off on Rivers. The Raiders were destroying the Chargers in the last meeting until they took their foot off the gas. This is also Charles Woodson's last home game so I think they might also have a bit of incentive there.

The only thing I see working for San Diego is that they are currently 0-4 in the Division, and for a QB like Rivers to lose all 6 Division games against teams he knows this well seems like an oddity to me. So if he loses next week he'd have to beat the Bronco's to avoid that. Plus Rivers has a tendency to back door cover anytime I bet the Chargers opponent to cover by scoring 14 points in the last 5 minutes when they were down 20 type of thing.

[rubecube]

It's a Thursday night game, so I would flip a coin. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably take the Chargers.

[transplant99]

So you think you know the NFL?


One of the biggest long shots in betting history will be cashed on Wednesday afternoon when Tayla Polia gets paid $100,005 for her $5, 15-leg NFL parlay that came through this week.

The 26-year-old Polia, who moved to Las Vegas two months ago, got 20,000-to-1 odds on the parlay card on betting firm William Hill's mobile site. She cashed in by being on the right side of the point spread in 14 games and correctly picking the over in the Steelers (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-steelers)-Broncos (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/den/denver-broncos) game.


I am the first to admit I have no idea anymore about betting the NFL. So I stopped other than playing sport select pools for 5 bucks every week. This astounds me as it was her second bet....in her life.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14425948/detroit-lions-monday-night-football-upset-completes-epic-long-shot-parlay

[rubecube]

So you think you know the NFL?



I am the first to admit I have no idea anymore about betting the NFL. So I stopped other than playing sport select pools for 5 bucks every week. This astounds me as it was her second bet....in her life.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14425948/detroit-lions-monday-night-football-upset-completes-epic-long-shot-parlay

Eh, it's not the first time and won't be the last that someone gets lucky.

[Frequitude]

Rube, brother. What are we thinking for today?!

[Sylvanfan]

Cleveland should cover against KC. Hali is out so two backup pass rushers on a sloppy track needing to cover 12 points.

St.Louis also has a lot of points against a team they always play tough.

[Frequitude]

Cleveland should cover against KC. Hali is out so two backup pass rushers on a sloppy track needing to cover 12 points.

St.Louis also has a lot of points against a team they always play tough.

Great call on the Browns! Differentiated myself nicely from the field with that one.

[Frequitude]

For the remaining games I've got Minnesota -6 vs NYG and Denver -3.5 vs Cincinatti. Thoughts?

[Sylvanfan]

For the remaining games I've got Minnesota -6 vs NYG and Denver -3.5 vs Cincinatti. Thoughts?

Well I'm no expert but 6 points for Minnesota is a pretty big number. Giants have nothing to play for and are without OBJ. Their defence is also suspect so AP should be able to run. Forecast is for a cold night. I personally think the Giants will cover. But truthfully I'm not confident enough in that to wager on it myself.

Similar with Cincinatti and Denver. Not too confident either way, but Denver D at home against an inexperienced ed QB seems alright. I'd like that pick a lot more st 2.5 points.

[rubecube]

Sorry, guys. Had a little too much holiday cheer this weekend.

[Frequitude]

Haha, no worries. I went 10-6 and widened my lead atop the pool!

[GirlySports]

for you Rube

Special college edition

Clemson +3.5
Alabama -10

[rubecube]

for you Rube

Special college edition

Clemson +3.5
Alabama -10

Already took Clemson at +560 to win the NC, and took Michigan State +10 for tonight.

[rubecube]

So I guess I hedge Alabama moneyline now, right?

[rubecube]

Yep, I'm seeing the early line is Alabama -250. So right now if Clemson wins I make $280 off my $50 bet. If I hedge and Clemson wins, I make $155. If I hedge and they lose I break even. If I don't hedge and they lose, I lose $50. So yeah, time to hedge. Going to wait to see if the ML changes at all before the game though.

[Frequitude]

Pocket the win for sure. Nice Clemson bet.

So how about NFL picks for tomorrow?! If I end up winning this pool I'm donating $50 to CP in your and sylvanfan's names.

[rubecube]

Well I went on three-day bender last weekend and completely slept through Sunday, so I'm back after a week-long hiatus.

NO +5.5
ARI -6.5
BUF +3
JAX +6.5
CLE +11
NYG -5.5
GB -3
SF +3.5

[Sylvanfan]

Pocket the win for sure. Nice Clemson bet.

So how about NFL picks for tomorrow?! If I end up winning this pool I'm donating $50 to CP in your and sylvanfan's names.

Rube deserves the credit here. Use my half and try to grow it to enough to buy a decent steak. Week 17 is a tough one for sure. Heres a few games I'll pick.

I like Oakland to cover against KC. Raiders will be inspired for Woodsons last game. KC just wants to get to next week with some healthy bodies. Oakland has a few individuals chasing goals and finishing 8-8 will be a huge deal for them.

Green Bay to cover against Minnesota. I think the Packers bounce back big again vs the Vikings.

Baltimore to cover aginst the Bengals. Baltimore has a lot of pride still and Cincinatti is pretty much locked in to the 3 spot. I think 9.5 points is a lot here given that Harbaugh is going nowhere and guys are fighting for jobs next year I think the Ravens will play hard.

Denver to cover against the Chargers. San Diego really have no one left, and I suspect the vets cant be too thrilled with the Weddle situation. Denver has something to play for but wont be choked by must win pressure.

Pittsburgh should cover against the Browns. Ill go against Rube here. They laid an egg last week and Clevelands players know the coach is gone on Monday. Without Manziel to run round I dont see Clevelands offence doing anything.

St.Louis should cover 3.5 points against the 49ers. St.Louis started playing better once the games meant nothing. I think San Fran is another team who expect the coach gone on Monday.

Tenneessee should cover against Indy because the Colts are starting a QB off the street. Colts likely still win but by a score of 4-3 thanks to two safety's.

Arizona to cover 6.5 against Seattle. I think Arians and the Cards want to make a statement and ensure that Seattle is not playing Washington next week.

[rubecube]

I like Oakland to cover against KC. Raiders will be inspired for Woodsons last game. KC just wants to get to next week with some healthy bodies. Oakland has a few individuals chasing goals and finishing 8-8 will be a huge deal for them.

Pittsburgh should cover against the Browns. Ill go against Rube here. They laid an egg last week and Clevelands players know the coach is gone on Monday. Without Manziel to run round I dont see Clevelands offence doing anything.

Tenneessee should cover against Indy because the Colts are starting a QB off the street. Colts likely still win but by a score of 4-3 thanks to two safety's.


Just wanted to add that I agree with Syl on these ones even though I picked the Browns. I had a complete brainfart and forgot they benched Manziel.

[Frequitude]

Should I change my Buf +3 pick now that McCoy is out today?

[Sylvanfan]

Shady wasnt doing anything Karlos Williams wasn't. Weather in Buffalo could be nasty today. If the Jets lose their passing game I dont know if they put up many points.Division game with must win pressure against the former coach.

[rubecube]

Should I change my Buf +3 pick now that McCoy is out today?
I'm not on strong on the Buffalo pick anyways. Jets technically have more to play for, but I could Ryan wanting to stick it to his old team. Really a coin flip, so take the Jets if you feel a bit more partial to them.

[Frequitude]

Great picks today, boys.

[rubecube]

Great picks today, boys.
Yeah that didn't go well. Sorry, man.

[Frequitude]

I was being serious. I went 10-5! Accidentally picked Pittsburgh instead of Cleveland which helped. The SF pick was huge. Everyone else in the chase went StL.

[Da_Chief]

Just put down $50 each on Steeler/Seahawks/Packers/Cardinals. Any one of them winning breaks me even + $150-$400 in winnings.

[rubecube]

Well that's the season. Went 6-9-1 over the final two weeks I bet (with me having skipped week 16), bringing my overall record to 77-58-4. Overall that works out to a .570 (57%) winning percentage, which is considered profitable. Most professional gamblers are in the 53-55% range, so I'm happy with my numbers this year. I'll probably keep betting during the playoffs when I see value, but won't be as religiously.

[Frequitude]

Nicely done rube. Do go too far. I'll need some help once yahoo's lines come out. I've luckboxed my way to a 60% winning percentage this year on every game. Insane variance.

[rubecube]

Just put down $50 each on Steeler/Seahawks/Packers/Cardinals. Any one of them winning breaks me even + $150-$400 in winnings.
Yeah, I think a buddy and I are going to do the same thing but go with Chiefs/Steelers/Seahawks/Cards.

[rubecube]

Gambling is so weird sometimes.

Odds to win Super Bowl

Carolina +407
Arizona +393

Odds to win NFC

Carolina +175
Arizona +179

[Frequitude]

Hey boys, thoughts on today's games?

Right now I've got the following but don't really feel confident in any of them. Maybe Wsh +1.

KC -3
Cin +2.5
Sea -4.5
Wsh +1

[rubecube]

KC - 3
Cin +2.5
Min +4.5
Wsh +1

[Frequitude]

I like that change. May the cold weather strike down the Seahawks.

[transplant99]

Against my better judgement I stopped at the gas station this AM and purchased a $10 pro line ticket.

I took KC, Cincy, Minny and Green Bay all to win.

If correct it pays $418.40

[Frank MetaMusil]

Against my better judgement I stopped at the gas station this AM and purchased a $10 pro line ticket.

I took KC, Cincy, Minny and Green Bay all to win.

If correct it pays $418.40
Pittsburgh is going to ruin that ticket for you. Never bet on Steelers games.

[transplant99]

Pittsburgh is going to ruin that ticket for you. Never bet on Steelers games.


LOL...sure enough.

Good call.

[CofR]

Hahaha, what a backdoor cover for the Bungles

[Chump]

Hahaha, what a backdoor cover for the Bungles

It's not a backdoor cover if you have the lead with less than a minute left.

[rubecube]

Kc +5
ari -7
sea ml
pit +7.5

[rubecube]

DEN +3
CAR -3

Brady's record in Denver is horribad and I'm sick of betting against the Panthers and losing.

[Frequitude]

I jumped on Carolina early at -4.5. I assume that'll get to 6 by gametime.

[rubecube]

I jumped on Carolina early at -4.5. I assume that'll get to 6 by gametime.

Line originally opened at CAR -3.5, but yeah, I'm thinking 6 by kickoff. I already had a bet in on Carolina to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the playoffs (it's a break even bet), but I'll probably add DEN +6 if it gets there.

[rubecube]

Man, the books must just be getting pounded with Carolina bets. Denver is +5.5 and it's an even money bet on some sites (no juice).

[rubecube]

I'm really waffling on this game. I see that Denver dropped back down to +5, which means Vegas must be close on their 50/50. I just don't honestly see a path to victory for Denver unless Cam completely implodes. That said, Denver have covered game this year in which they've been dogs. I'm leaning towards CAR -5 right now, but since I have money on the Panthers to win the Super Bowl, I'll likely just stay away and make prop bets.