Hockey’s Next Ones: Top 100 NHL Prospects

[cral12]

This project has been in the works for some time over the summer...finally complete.

Intro Excerpt:

"With a plethora of talent waiting in the wings, the future of hockey is bright. The 2015 NHL draft class provided the obvious generational talents Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel along with top guns Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome and the sublime skating defenseman Noah Hanifin. 2014 draftees Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart and Nik Ehlers seem primed to put their stamp on the NHL landscape as soon as this upcoming season. Max Domi, Darnell Nurse and Shea Theodore from the 2013 NHL Draft all will be key cogs for their respective franchises soon enough.

But how do these prominent prospects stack up against each other? THW brings you The Next Ones Top 100 NHL Prospects. This is a collaborative project combining the opinions of three of THW’s prospect profilers."

The Top 10

THW Prospect NHL Club Draft Yr Draft # Ht Pos
1 to 10
1 McDavid, ConnorEDM 2015 1 6'1 C
2 Eichel, Jack BUF 2015 2 6'2 C
3 Marner, Mitch TOR 2015 4 5'11 C/RW
4 Bennett, Sam CGY 2014 4 6'1 C
5 Strome, Dylan ARI 2015 3 6'3 C
6 Reinhart, Sam BUF 2014 2 6'1 C
7 Hanifin, Noah CAR 2015 5 6'3 D
8 Ehlers, Nikolaj WPG 2014 9 6'0 W
9 Larkin, Dylan DET 2014 15 6'1 C
10 Draisaitl, Leon EDM 2014 3 6'1 C

LINK to the full Top 100 (http://thehockeywriters.com/hockeys-next-ones-top-100-nhl-prospects/) - in table & PDF formats

Thoughts welcomed.

(Flames do just fine; Kylington lower than Pronman {but I really like him!}, Poirier & Bennett higher)

***

Goalies are separated out as linked in another thread - LINK

Hockey’s Next Ones: Top 30 NHL Goalie Prospects
(http://thehockeywriters.com/hockeys-next-ones-top-30-nhl-goalie-prospects/)

[Point Blank]

Calgary Prospects:
#4 Sam Bennett
#57 Emile Poirier
#85 Brandon Hickey
#97 Oliver Kylington

[GranteedEV]

Strome over Reinhart? That's surprising, I remember Reinhart being the primo forward prospect of last year's draft.

[robaur]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

[Rick M.]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

I think it's due to the hype surrounding the 2015 draft.

[albertGQ]

Glad they got it right with McDonald ahead of Demko

[the2bears]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

A bit of the Toronto factor, too. Have to make them feel optimistic so they click through.

[bax]

Marner is one hell of a prospect. I would still rather have Bennett, but Marner has some of that Johnny hockey/patty Kane magic in his game

[ricardodw]

Wow Winnipeg 8 out of the top 100 prospects (actually 87)

Vancouver not rebuilding but reloading with 5 of the top 96

WPG - 8
ARI - 6
PHI - 6
NYI - 5
TOR - 5
VAN - 5
CBJ - 4
CGY - 4
DAL - 4
DET - 4
EDM - 4
SJS - 4
TBL - 4
BUF - 3
COL - 3
MIN - 3
MTL - 3
STL - 3
ANA - 2
BOS - 2
CAR - 2
CHI - 2
FLA - 2
NJD - 2
NSH - 2
OTT - 2
PIT - 2
LAK - 1
NYR - 1

[ricardodw]

Winnipeg got 3 top prospects from Buffalo for Evander "bad boy" Kane (along with Stafford)

2015 #25 draft pick Roslovic ranked 75,
Brendan Lemieux ranked 83 and
Joel Armia ranked #87.

Boston got no one in the top 100 prospects for Dougie Hamilton.

[Erick Estrada]

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

Hockey fans in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, and Winnipeg just have to accept that we are going to hear a lot about Marner going forward. Nazem Kadri is a good player but if you go back to when he was drafted we have had to endure more press about what appears to be a 50 point NHL player than prospects that have gone on to much better things on different teams in the same timeline.

[ricardodw]

Hockey fans in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, and Winnipeg just have to accept that we are going to hear a lot about Marner going forward. Nazem Kadri is a good player but if you go back to when he was drafted we have had to endure more press about what appears to be a 50 point NHL player than prospects that have gone on to much better things on different teams in the same timeline.

Kadri was drafted 7th in 2009..... off all the people drafted in 2009 he has the 8th most points at the NHL level and 6th most goals.


Was anyone ever saying he was as good or better than Tavares, Duchense or Evander Kane who were drafted ahead of him?

[savardandjokinen]

I don't like this list.

[GranteedEV]

Wow Winnipeg 8 out of the top 100 prospects (actually 87)

WPG - 8
TOR - 5
VAN - 5
CGY - 4
EDM - 4

Not to come off as a homer, but there is no way Winnipeg has four more top 100 prospects than us, three of which were second round picks.

They have three great skater prospects in Morrisey, Ehlers, and Connor. No doubt these guys belong in the top 30, no argument from me.

Four other guys appearing for them (Petan, Roslovic, Harkins, Armia) are at the same level as our guys like Klimchuk and Jankowski, who didn't make the list.

Petan is the most glorified among them, but considering he's an undersized Portland Winterhawk who, even adjusting for games played, as a 19 year old was outscored by 21 by Bjorkstrand I can't help but think of names like Rattie and Baertschi.

I could live with Harkins and Roslovic if there wasn't an implicit suggestion that they're better forward prospects than anything we have after Poirier.

Armia though? Guy was drafted from the same league as our Granlund, in the same year as Granlund, kept pace with Granlund for the first two years, and then came over here and hasn't done anything since while Granlund has continued to improve. He's going into his Draft+5 year just like Granlund (and Baertschi) but gets a bonus pass for not having earned any real NHL call ups. The amount he's actually proven in four years is on a similar level to Jankowski in three (unlike whom he hasn't shown a consistent trend of progression), with a year more of development than Jankowski, playing a less important position than Jankowski. And I bet you he doesn't have as much upside as Jankowski.

The fifth guy, Brendan Lemiuex is the total head-scratcher. Even his upside is like a 3rd liner and there's no guarantee he reaches that. Just feels like nepotism. We're talking about a guy who as a 18 year old forward was nearly outscored by 17 year old defenseman Rasmus Andersson on the same team. He doesn't have any real size advantage, nor is he known to be a defensive forward. He was a -9 (second worst) on a team that outscored opponents by 59 goals. I say this as someone who's said he doubts if Hunter Smith would ever make the NHL as a 4th liner - I would not trade Hunter Smith for this guy.

The over-hyping of the Jets prospect pool is on another level. They've drafted well, and good on them, but they certainly haven't drafted 2X better than us or Detroit.

Shinkaruk being on there is also wierd, considering he tanked like Kylington in his draft year, yet has done nothing since then to prove anyone wrong about that since.

[Huntingwhale]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

To be fair, Marner had a pretty stellar season. Bennett was injured. I'm sure those rankings are based mostly on the past season.

I never put stock into these. Look at the 2003 draft rankings and where you would rank those players now. These rankings mean sweet #### all when it comes to predicting how good these guys will be in the NHL.

[Hackey]

Does it really matter where these guys are ranked? Only thing that matters is how they perform. Bennett 3 or 4 who really cares. Just makes it that much sweeter when he lights it up.

[bax]

Not to come off as a homer, but there is no way Winnipeg has four more top 100 prospects than us, three of which were second round picks.

They have three great skater prospects in Morrisey, Ehlers, and Connor. No doubt these guys belong in the top 30, no argument from me.

Four other guys appearing for them (Petan, Roslovic, Harkins, Armia) are at the same level as our guys like Klimchuk and Jankowski, who didn't make the list.

Petan is the most glorified among them, but considering he's an undersized Portland Winterhawk who, even adjusting for games played, as a 19 year old was outscored by 21 by Bjorkstrand I can't help but think of names like Rattie and Baertschi.

I could live with Harkins and Roslovic if there wasn't an implicit suggestion that they're better forward prospects than anything we have after Poirier.

Armia though? Guy was drafted from the same league as our Granlund, in the same year as Granlund, kept pace with Granlund for the first two years, and then came over here and hasn't done anything since while Granlund has continued to improve. He's going into his Draft+5 year just like Granlund (and Baertschi) but gets a bonus pass for not having earned any real NHL call ups. The amount he's actually proven in four years is on a similar level to Jankowski in three (unlike whom he hasn't shown a consistent trend of progression), with a year more of development than Jankowski, playing a less important position than Jankowski. And I bet you he doesn't have as much upside as Jankowski.

The fifth guy, Brendan Lemiuex is the total head-scratcher. Even his upside is like a 3rd liner and there's no guarantee he reaches that. Just feels like nepotism. We're talking about a guy who as a 18 year old forward was nearly outscored by 17 year old defenseman Rasmus Andersson on the same team. He doesn't have any real size advantage, nor is he known to be a defensive forward. He was a -9 (second worst) on a team that outscored opponents by 59 goals. I say this as someone who's said he doubts if Hunter Smith would ever make the NHL as a 4th liner - I would not trade Hunter Smith for this guy.

The over-hyping of the Jets prospect pool is on another level. They've drafted well, and good on them, but they certainly haven't drafted 2X better than us or Detroit.

Shinkaruk being on there is also wierd, considering he tanked like Kylington in his draft year, yet has done nothing since then to prove anyone wrong about that since.


Great post. Agree with everything you said, especially about Armia.

[Split98]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

These days... we just call it 'the London Knights team'

[ricardodw]

Shinkaruk being on there is also wierd, considering he tanked like Kylington in his draft year, yet has done nothing since then to prove anyone wrong about that since.

So tanking in your draft year does not in your opinion mean unlimited potential success going forward?

[ricardodw]

Petan is the most glorified among them, but considering he's an undersized Portland Winterhawk who, even adjusting for games played, as a 19 year old was outscored by 21 by Bjorkstrand I can't help but think of names like Rattie and Baertschi.




Petan does have a size disadvantage to overcome... If he was 5-11 and 180 he would be in the top 10 prospects overall based on his accomplishments. 28 points in 17 playoff game... we would have all been happy had Bennett done that in his OHL playoffs.

Petan sees the whole ice and is almost always getting the puck to the open man in the best position.

Your comparison to Bjorkstrand is a bit off as Bjorkstand is ranked #40 best prospect. Petan (ranked #72) is not as good a prospect as Sam Bennett or Sam Reinhart either.


How in the world do you think that Jankowski as the #3 C on his NCAA team as a 20 year old could ever be considered a top 100 prospect?

Granlund is definitely better than at least half of these guys on the list.... a good reason that he is not considered a prospect anymore.

The Flame that has really been slighted here is Ferland... He is still Calder eligible and would be at least as good of a power forward prospect as Ritchie or Virtanen.

I would like to see their rationalization on how Armia and Lemieux made this list.

[Brewmaster]

Why is Marner getting ranked ahead of Bennett in all of these rankings ?

I understand that Marner had an amazing 126 point season during his draft year but there were 2 other players on his team who hit 100+ points in the season - Domi (ranked 11th on this list) and Dvorak. He was playing on a stacked London Knights team.

Bennett on the other hand during his draft year had little to no offensive help, and when he played junior this past season after missing pretty much the entire season -- he lit up the OHL to the tune of 24 points in 11 games playing with an offensive plug like Spencer Watson. And then after that, he jumped right into the NHL Playoffs level.....Mitch Marner might not even make the Leafs regular season team...

Being drafted by the Leafs just seems to outweigh any tangible evidence.

I'm not a junior scout or an expert on NHL propects, but I find it difficult to subjectively argue that Bennett should be any higher than 4th on that list. The fact is, he only played 12 regular season games last year between the Fronts and the Flames. And while he looked promising with the Flames in the series against Vancouver, that again is a very small sample size to judge a player. Missing nearly a full season of hockey at 18 years old will have a negative impact on any prospect when comparing him to his peers.

I'm hopeful that Sam will jump right into an impact role with the Flames, but also recognize that there could be some growing pains. With his aggressive style of play and current injury track record, there is a possibility that an 82 game season in the NHL will be a difficult adjustment.

[GranteedEV]

So tanking in your draft year does not in your opinion mean unlimited potential success going forward?

Tanking in your draft year mean a need to prove people wrong about your shortcomings in your Draft+1 / Draft+2 years if you want to continue to be considered a top 100 prospect at that point in time. That is only fair and it applies to Kylington, he has to show progress in Draft+1 and then Draft+2 not just stagnate.

Examples:
Cam Fowler (made NHL in Draft+1)
Ryan Getzlaf (increased production 57% in Draft+1)
Brandon Saad (increased production 85% in Draft+1)
Filip Forsberg (earned NHL callup in Draft+1, longer callup in Draft+2, was calder candidate in Draft+3)
Anze Kopitar (transitioned well to SEL in Draft+1, High-level NHLer by Draft+2)

[ricardodw]

Tanking in your draft year mean a need to prove people wrong about your shortcomings in your Draft+1 / Draft+2 years if you want to continue to be considered a top 100 prospect at that point in time. That is only fair and it applies to Kylington, he has to show progress in Draft+1 and then Draft+2 not just stagnate.

Examples:
Cam Fowler (made NHL in Draft+1)
Ryan Getzlaf (increased production 57% in Draft+1)
Brandon Saad (increased production 85% in Draft+1)
Filip Forsberg (earned NHL callup in Draft+1, longer callup in Draft+2, was calder candidate in Draft+3)
Anze Kopitar (transitioned well to SEL in Draft+1, High-level NHLer by Draft+2)


Cam Fowler had a great draft year --- he was the 3rd D-man picked. He was projected higher by TSN but #12 pick is not falling to the end of the 2nd round.

Brian Getzlaff was chosen #18 in the 2003 draft... Brent Burns, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Mike richards got picked after him in the 2003 1st round.

Kopitar was chosen #11 overall .... out of a freakin' Swedish Jr. league. In his 5 games for Sovenia at the U20 WJC he had 10 goals and 13 pts as a 17 year old. He was a physical phenom. To say that he he had a bad draft year.... like Kylington is preposterous.


Saad is a story where he looked to have an attitude problem in his draft year that bumped him down to the 2nd round and he straightened out.


For each player that had a "sub-par" draft year and rebounded in the following years there will be 20 guys like Angelo Esposito that had poor draft years and basically that was as good as they got.

[Textcritic]

...For each player that had a "sub-par" draft year and rebounded in the following years there will be 20 guys like Angelo Esposito that had poor draft years and basically that was as good as they got.
But Kyllington is at least still in a position to prove it one way or the other. It may still be a long shot, but the point here is that with that window still wide open, Kyllington deserves a place on this list whereas Shinkaruk after 2 years of rather disappointing post-draft development does not.

[Textcritic]

...How in the world do you think that Jankowski as the #3 C on his NCAA team as a 20 year old could ever be considered a top 100 prospect?...
I have not seen a single poster in this thread make this assertion.

Jankowski has been mentioned as comparable to some players who are on this list, but as an argument for why they should probably be removed.

[ricardodw]

nm

[albertGQ]

Cam Fowler had a great draft year --- he was the 3rd D-man picked. He was projected higher by TSN but #12 pick is not falling to the end of the 2nd round.

Brian Getzlaff was chosen #18 in the 2003 draft... Brent Burns, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Mike richards got picked after him in the 2003 1st round.

Kopitar was chosen #11 overall .... out of a freakin' Swedish Jr. league. In his 5 games for Sovenia at the U20 WJC he had 10 goals and 13 pts as a 17 year old. He was a physical phenom. To say that he he had a bad draft year.... like Kylington is preposterous.


Saad is a story where he looked to have an attitude problem in his draft year that bumped him down to the 2nd round and he straightened out.


For each player that had a "sub-par" draft year and rebounded in the following years there will be 20 guys like Angelo Esposito that had poor draft years and basically that was as good as they got.

I've heard of Chris & Ryan. But who is this Brian guy?
Yes, I know he also spelt it Getzlaff instead of Getzlaf

[JiriHrdina]

For each player that had a "sub-par" draft year and rebounded in the following years there will be 20 guys like Angelo Esposito that had poor draft years and basically that was as good as they got.

Esposito is a poor example. His #1 skill was his skating and then he suffered numerous knee injuries. Without that - he was nothing.
People look at him and say "BUST BUST BUST!!!" without knowing the context behind it. Unfair.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Strome over Reinhart? That's surprising, I remember Reinhart being the primo forward prospect of last year's draft.

Bennett was the primo forward of last year's draft. I only had Ekblad ahead of him in my rankings. I'd definitely take him over Marner as well.

Strome and Reinhart are pretty close from what I've seen of them. I don't think either one in front of the other is a shocker.

[David Struch]

In 7 years, Hockey’s Next Ones will realize “Jankowski was the best player in the 2012 draft

[BurningSteel]

Shinkaruk at 82.....boy we screwed that one up