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Old 04-02-2012, 08:40 AM   #1
Lt.Spears
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Default Why the Flames need to rebuild.

Looking at our roster i don't think anyone out there would consider this team a contender, hell most people didn't even think we were a playoff team to start the season. And as predicted, the team has failed to make the post season for the third straight time, a pretty pathetic accolade considering more than 1/2 the NHL teams make it in. So basically the Flames are a bottom 40% team in the NHL.

I have long heard the storied phrase "all we need to do is get Iginla a #1 Center", while this is true, i dont think many fans understand exactly HOW you get these kinds of players. Looking back for the past 5 years how many #1 Centers have been traded off their teams? I can think of 3, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, and Olli (although Olli isnt really considered a #1 in many peoples eyes).

If you look at teams who have great #1 Centers, almost every single one of them has been a drafted player, Giroux, Malkin, Crosby, Backstrom, Toews, Kane, Staal, Stamkos, Kopitar, Tavares etc. All these legit #1Centers were all drafted and developed by their teams, they weren't traded for, they weren't aquired via free agency, they were drafted. Even if you look at non Centers, how many elite players get traded and how many of them continue on their success onto new teams?

The reason the Flames need to rebuild, is because right now we have basically one player who has a chance to be a superstar, one player who has a chance to become an 80+ point player. Outside of Sven i dont see any player on our roster, or our farm team that has the potential to put up big numbers. And the only way we are going to get more of these kinds of players, is to draft and develop them.

Some may ask, "well, why cant we just draft in the 10-15 range and develop those players?" the answer is, is that your chances of drafting legit elite talent outside of the top 10, hell even top 5 start to diminish quite quickly. Here is a list of players drafted 1-10 and then 10-15 from 2007-2009.

09:
Tavares
Hedmen
Duchene
Kane
B. Schenn
OEL
Kadri
Scott Glennie
Jared Cowen
MPS

Ryan Ellis
Kalvin De Haan
Zach Kassian
Dmitri Kulikov
Peter Holland

08:
Stamkos
Doughty
Bogosian
Pietrangelo
Luke Schenn
Nikita Filitov
Colin Wilson
Mikkel Boedker
Josh Bailey
Cody Hodgson

Kyle Beach
Tyler Myers
Colton Tuebert
Zack Boychuck
Erik Karlsson


07:
Kane
JVR
Turris
Hickey
Alzner
Gagner
Voracek
Zach Hamill
Logan Couture
Keaton Ellerby

Brandon Sutter
Ryan Mcdonagh
Lars Eller
Kevin Shattenkirk
Alex Plante


What can be seen from this is that often, outside of the top 5-6 players, the talent level drops off quite dramatically and after that it becomes more of a luck game with drafting future top talent.

What the Flames need to do is aim for players like Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Galenychuk, McKinnon etc. Players that have legit chances at being the next Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Ryan, etc.

I dont think anyone on this board wouldnt be willing to give up 3 years of non-playoffs (hell even a year of playoff hockey) in order to have a player of Malkin, or Stamkos's skill on our team.

I believe this team is headed for some dark years, we are probably 3-4 years away from being back into the playoff hunt, and then maybe 5-6 away from being true contenders again. I never advocate failing for the sake of failing, but if the Flames EVER want to fail and draft high, next year is the year to do it, drafting a player like McKinnon would set this team up for the next 10-15 years.


TLDR: Flames only chance of being better is to draft and develop our own players, best way to do that is drafting top 5, next year has a generational talent in McKinnon, next year is a great year to fail and draft our future.


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Old 04-02-2012, 09:01 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt.Spears View Post
TLDR: Flames only chance of being better is to draft and develop our own players, best way to do that is drafting top 5, next year has a generational talent in McKinnon, next year is a great year to fail and draft our future.
The problem I have is every draft the year before says this before season that they're drafted in. Before the '08-'09 season, it was "Tavares is the next Crosby". Before '09-'10, Hall was the next big thing...I wasn't paying attention to the RNH hype train, but I do know that this year, we were expecting Yakupov to be the next generational Russian...McKinnon hasn't proven he's a generational talent yet. Quality first liner? Potential is certainly there. Generational talent? Needs to prove it with continual development.

I do agree that we have generally have good players available, but are extremely hard to get unless you're outside the top 5. Generally, I think there are tier drops at 3, 7, and 15 in the first round. Top 3 are amazing players, top 7 are great picks generally, and top 15 are alright...after that, it starts becoming more of a crapshoot (exceptions of course...you always have lucky picks and unlucky picks).

I also agree that if the Flames decide it's time for a rebuild, suck and suck hard (EDIT: by torching the roster...you can't really tell a team to stop trying and fail). No more of this competative rebuild. It'll be horrible to be a fan through, but ultimately, I think it's the only way to build the team back up...rebuilding via UFA isn't viable and I doubt the Flames have an eye for talent good enough to turn enough coal into diamonds via trade to make the team strong enough. Interior development is the only way to go if the current roster isn't effective.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:04 AM   #3
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I don't endorse trying to fail with an eye to eventually improving. If you're trying and failing, fair enough. But tanking with an eye at some player 18-24 months away is distasteful.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:04 AM   #4
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Soon you can add Nugent-Hopkins to the legit #1 Centre list, that kid is just fun to watch.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:05 AM   #5
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Those that seek failure deserve nothing else.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:06 AM   #6
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I think that the Flames and any professional sports team that lives and dies on fans revenue needs to focus on reloads rather then rebuilds.

I can state for sure that if I thought that the Flames were going to go out of their way to fail for a worst in the league position, which would be made clear if they traded or in any other way moved certain players (Gio being one of them) that the Flames would never ever get another dime of my money. I think that dive plans as a rebuild strategy is a fraud unless the Flames sharply reduce their ticket and beer prices.

You can trade guys like Iginla and Kipper as long as your getting assets that can help keep your team competitive going forward and not trading them based around hope and speculation.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:07 AM   #7
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What I'd like to see is the Flames leverage what they have (roster players) + our first rounder this season to jump up into the top 5.

Bouwmeester + CGY 1st to one of MTL, NYI, EDM, or TOR for their 1st in '12. Swap out Bouw for Kipper depending on the trading partner's preference.

If this organization is still committed to icing the best team possible and "going for it" - then they need to pay the high cost of getting a young, potential #1 center. To get that player in the draft, we'll need to be picking in the top 5 this summer, so saddle up and pay the price to get it done.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:10 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14 View Post
Those that seek failure deserve nothing else.
THIS

This statement is bang on. I do not want to cheer for a team that measures it success through failuer (ie: Oilers). In Sylvan there is a large number of Oiler's fans, and listening to them you would think the Oilers' planned to suck so they could get first round picks. They talk with pride how they have had so many high draft picks, yet there is no acknowledgement that those are gained through futility.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:16 AM   #9
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Y'know, Giroux was taken 22nd overall. I know the chances of getting franchise #1 center are obviously better with a top 5 pick but I'd say there's at least one or two guys that fit that bill available in every draft year. This is why scouting and identifying these players is so important and why I'm glad Feaster has put the extra emphasis on scouting and brought so many people in to help in that regard.

Of the top of my head I can think of Getzlaf, Stastny, Kopitar, Mike and Brad Richards who were outside the top 10, later first round or outside the first round. Joe Nieuwendyk was 27th overall for cryin out loud!
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:16 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14 View Post
Those that seek failure deserve nothing else.
Failure is sitting outside of the playoffs when more than 1/2 the league makes it in. Failure is missing the playoffs for consecutive years. Failure is exactly what the Flames are right now.

Im not advocating we seek failure and intentionally tell the players to stop trying, but trading off Iginla and especially Kipper for young players/picks is going to lead us to being pretty bad next year.

And once again, i go back to the "would you trade 2-3 years of really sucking for Malkin, and Toews?" I know i would, in an instant.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:17 AM   #11
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My god we need to change the way drafting occurs. When you have fans that want the team to suck, you have a big problem. That kind of mentality means you have no pride.

Does no one else feel dirty being happier that management would be so unbelievably inept that the team becomes the WORST team in the league and that is somehow success? How is being in the bottom three teams not embarrassing???

Gross. I hope this team does not trade in it's pride for a lottery ticket.

And I don't normally complain, but how many of these blow it up threads do we need?


Here is a good article as it relates to the NBA:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...of-the-iceberg
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:17 AM   #12
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I know this is a hopeless plea, but can we just have one "Offseason" thread? All these discussions are basically the same...
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:21 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14 View Post
Those that seek failure deserve nothing else.
That is such a simplistic statement. If only it was as easy as simply seeking success and it being handed to you on a silver platter. However it doesn't work that way and it's not working for the Flames.

So what's the solution for a team seeking the playoffs but delivering failure? In my book the only thing worse than accepting short term failure in anticipation of long term success is a team that will accept nothing less than winning and failing at it every year. It means your plan it either terrible or you don't have a plan at all. Say what you want about the Oilers but they have a plan and it's looking like eventually it may pay off in the near future.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:23 AM   #14
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He doesn't have a plan at all.

Seriously captain, wtf is a "reload"?
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:24 AM   #15
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Quote:
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He doesn't have a plan at all.

Seriously captain, wtf is a "reload"?
Retool maybe?
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:27 AM   #16
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I'm sick of people talking about losing on purpose.

No team in the history of NHL, at least during my lifetime, has ever tanked on purpose.

Making moves to the roster with the future in mind (aka Rebuilding) is NOT tanking.

Edmonton did NOT tank, they just sucked.

Feasteer does not need to aim for a Top 3 pick, though he needs to make moves knowing that it could happen. Similar to the Senators this year and the Avs a couple years ago...a team can rebuild and even play better at the same time, it can happen.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:27 AM   #17
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What's a retool?

People bandy that term about alot with very little in the way of substance to back it up.

So in addition to answering the above question also explain how it is different from a rebuild.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:30 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
That is such a simplistic statement. If only it was as easy as simply seeking success and it being handed to you on a silver platter. However it doesn't work that way and it's not working for the Flames.

So what's the solution for a team seeking the playoffs but delivering failure? In my book the only thing worse than accepting short term failure in anticipation of long term success is a team that will accept nothing less than winning and failing at it every year. It means your plan it either terrible or you don't have a plan at all. Say what you want about the Oilers but they have a plan and it's looking like eventually it may pay off in the near future.
Plan? How do you "plan" to finish that low every year? Trade for bad players? Trade away good ones? Hire Renney?
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:30 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt.Spears View Post
Failure is sitting outside of the playoffs when more than 1/2 the league makes it in. Failure is missing the playoffs for consecutive years. Failure is exactly what the Flames are right now.

Im not advocating we seek failure and intentionally tell the players to stop trying, but trading off Iginla and especially Kipper for young players/picks is going to lead us to being pretty bad next year.

And once again, i go back to the "would you trade 2-3 years of really sucking for Malkin, and Toews?" I know i would, in an instant.
It becomes pretty apparent that you intend to suck if the main return on a Iginla or Kipper trade is a draft pick, and nothing to help the team for quite a while.

the old pick and prospect.

If you don't get that young asset that's going to step in and help out now, then your plan is to suck.

The bottom line is that the Oilers have been fairly fortunate that they got pretty good players that could step into the NHL right after their draft year. Even first round draft picks have a fairly large chance of turning into a Stefan or Daigle for example.

If you look at the Oilers you can either reach one of two conclusions. That they are intentionally gassing their team to accumulate draft picks as they have done very little outside of that to improve their teams, their trades and even thier free agency signings have looked to maintain the status Quo of being a bottom feeder.

Or Tambellinii and Lowe are absolutely brutal at trades and free agent signings.

The Oilers even with their top pick two years in a row strategy look to be years away from even thinking about the playoffs because they're not balancing their rosters. they have terrible depth through their lineup, they have a less then inspiring blue line, and they have terrible goaltending depth.

And you can bleat and harp about their young bliueliners coming up, or if the Oilers draft a blueliner that it will show quick results and it would probably be wrong, first it takes a bunch of years to create a solid top pairing blueliner and its more then likely that you get a Tom Gilbert as oppossed to a Pronger type blueliner.

The smart move for the Oilers would be to try to leverage one of their top three young guys to balance their lineup, if they did that then it would be an indication that they were looking to be compeitive now and not diving for draft picks.
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Old 04-02-2012, 09:31 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinordi View Post
What's a retool?

People bandy that term about alot with very little in the way of substance to back it up.

So in addition to answering the above question also explain how it is different from a rebuild.
It's a rebuild where you only make trades when they make sense as opposed to simply selling players to the highest bidder and starting over.
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