2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[GioforPM]

[QUOTE=MacDaddy77;6659741]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

1)2015-2018

5v5 scoring
Player A - 84 points in 3123.39 minutes
Player B - 70 points in 3328.45 minutes
Player C - 68 points in 2929.6 minutes
Player D - 108 points in 3211.43 minutes

One of these players is "number one center Ryan O'Reilly who scores around the same clip as Monahan".
One of these players is Sean Monahan.


Wow thanks for this! I had no idea he was this close to Bennett's production. While Ive not been on the trade Bennett train this definitely illustrates a reason to keep him.

I think he would be a Backlund replacement/upgrade and you can move Backlund and Brodie for ROR plus some younger scoring depth.

[gunnner]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Brodie thrived on tight but sensible gaps, shot blocking, inside positioning? GG emphasized high risk/reward gaps?

Naw. Even in his best years, Brodie wasn't good defensively, didn't gap well, didn't shot block and took the wrong position to the puck carrier a lot.

The nostalgia for the once every three games stretch backhand pass that actually connected and was not that hard to defend is quite astonishing.

Glad to see im not the only one who notices Brodies gap control issues. He really is one of the worst in the league with gap control. Still i want to see him in a 5/6 role, i bet he can become the best #5 in the league.

[Dan403]

ROR?

No Thanks.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

1)2015-2018

5v5 scoring
Player A - 84 points in 3123.39 minutes
Player B - 70 points in 3328.45 minutes
Player C - 68 points in 2929.6 minutes
Player D - 108 points in 3211.43 minutes

One of these players is "number one center Ryan O'Reilly who scores around the same clip as Monahan".
One of these players is Sean Monahan.

Guess:

a) Which one is Ryan O'Reilly

b) Which one is Sean Monahan

c) Who the other two players might be

Here are the answers:

Spoiler!

Player A - "only a third line center Mikael Backlund"
Player B - "number one center Ryan O'Reilly who scores around the same clip as Monahan".
Player C - "NHL bust Sam Bennett"
Player D - Sean Monahan

In actual 5 on 5 play, the only player ROR outscored was Bennett, by two points in 400 more minutes

2) Could he help our power play? I mean, I'm skeptical that any left hand shot is what you want to be trading a key asset for to upgrade our power play which only already has like ten left hand shot forwards. I think you have to be really wary about his power play numbers. Especially on a team where he is one of only two high-end six forwards who shot left, rather than the entire roster. In Buffalo he is:

a) playing a role he probably wouldn't play here, I believe as the bumper in the slot on PP1, which is occupied by the Sean Monahan (or didn't we learn our lesson with Troy Brouwer?) on our PP and that's not changing any time soon

b) playing on a power play with many high-end right hand shot forwards - Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo. I mean you can make a good PP just by passing to Jack alone.

3) ROR carries a cap hit higher than Gaudreau and Giordano. Ponder that for a second given the above information.

Great analysis.

Yeah most us here are pretty dumb when it comes to hockey, and some of us can even admit it.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Great analysis.

Yeah most us here are pretty dumb when it comes to hockey, and some of us can even admit it.

I think people just don't realize how much PowerPlay ice time and opportunity have an impact on production, especially how much the coaching on a PP can play a role in how effective that PP is.

To look at the flip side of what was posted:

PowerPlay Minutes

OReilly: 730 Minutes, 69 points

Bennett: 358 minutes, 15 points

Backlund: 470 minutes, 36 points

Monahan: 765 minutes, 56 points

Personally instead of trading for O'Reilly, I'd rather go get the assistant coach that led the Sabres to the best PP in 16/17 or at least go see what they did that was so effective.

[Psytic]

Its essentially the same thing as "he scores around the same clip as Monahan." 10 points +/- 5v5 is around the same clip. He has a higher ppg over the last 3 seasons if we include all scoring which we should all points are valued in winning a game. He is a good 2 way player as well. The point is not is he better than Monahan its that he is probably valued at the lvl of a 1C and I don't think you get him for Brodie+ considering we have no firsts and what Botteril's ask has been for other players on his team in the past. He has a good two way game and is good on the PP as well. I would be pleasantly surprised if we had what Buffalo is looking for in a trade.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

1)2015-2018

5v5 scoring
Player A - 84 points in 3123.39 minutes
Player B - 70 points in 3328.45 minutes
Player C - 68 points in 2929.6 minutes
Player D - 108 points in 3211.43 minutes

Such skewed stats. The reality is that there is more to a hockey game than 5v5. Look at the actual stats for the players in question during the time frame.

Monahan (player D) - 185 points (high 64, low 58)
O'Reilly (player A) - 176 points (high 61, low 55)
Backlund (player B) - 145 points (high 53, low 45)
Bennett (player C) - 88 points (high 36, low 26)

Don't want any part of O'Reilly, as I think we need a goal scorer on the right side the most, but just want to post the whole picture on the players in question.

[Icon]

I'd be fine with adding ROR if we're pushing Bennett to the wing (probably on the 3rd line)... AND still addressing the RW issue.

If all we did was add ROR and go into next year with the same RWs then that would be a failed offseason.

[Jiggy]

ROR brings so much more than points. He's great a faceoffs, good defensively, good on the pk, hard to play against.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by New Era

Such skewed stats. The reality is that there is more to a hockey game than 5v5. Look at the actual stats for the players in question during the time frame.

Monahan (player D) - 185 points (high 64, low 58)
O'Reilly (player A) - 176 points (high 61, low 55)
Backlund (player B) - 145 points (high 53, low 45)
Bennett (player C) - 88 points (high 36, low 26)

Don't want any part of O'Reilly, as I think we need a goal scorer on the right side the most, but just want to post the whole picture on the players in question.

These stats are likely more skewed than the 5v5 stats, as you aren't comparing apples to apples, which is why the 5v5 stats are now widely used.

Bennett doesn't get PP time, so his offense suffers greatly. Same for Backlund, who's main job is to line up against the other team's best forwards and shut them down.

While you are correct in stating that there is more to hockey than 5v5 play, as obviously games are decided based on the PP and PK aspects, comparing 5v5 play of individual players is way more accurate than simply looking at total points in isolation.

Sure Bennett has way less points than those other layers in total, but when you look at his lesser minutes, lesser linemates and lack of PP time, his stats are actually pretty good in comparison.

The fact of the matter is, in the NHL, unless you are getting favorable ice time and PP time, you aren't sniffing anywhere close to the league leaders.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

These stats are likely more skewed than the 5v5 stats, as you aren't comparing apples to apples, which is why the 5v5 stats are now widely used.

Not really. Most people realize that 5v5 time is some of the most diverse minutes you'll get.

Huge difference between a defensive assignment shutting down Crosby in the defensive zone compared to an offensive zone faceoff against the fourth line.

Far difference between that of a third liner going up against another third line and third pairing compared to a shutdown line and top pairing covering that of a first liner.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

These stats are likely more skewed than the 5v5 stats, as you aren't comparing apples to apples, which is why the 5v5 stats are now widely used.

Bennett doesn't get PP time, so his offense suffers greatly. Same for Backlund, who's main job is to line up against the other team's best forwards and shut them down.

While you are correct in stating that there is more to hockey than 5v5 play, as obviously games are decided based on the PP and PK aspects, comparing 5v5 play of individual players is way more accurate than simply looking at total points in isolation.

Sure Bennett has way less points than those other layers in total, but when you look at his lesser minutes, lesser linemates and lack of PP time, his stats are actually pretty good in comparison.

The fact of the matter is, in the NHL, unless you are getting favorable ice time and PP time, you aren't sniffing anywhere close to the league leaders.

True for Bennett, but Backlund gets lots of PP time.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'd like to see BT add a scoring right shot winger too, are their any available that we know of?

There isn't any worth noting available as free agents, that's for sure. Unless you want to sign a 34 year old Vanek, or a 30 year old Perron who just had the best year of his career and will most certainly be paid far more than he is worth and even still just put up 16 goals.

If O'Reilly is available at a decent price, you need to pull the trigger on that. Solidifies center ice for the Flames for the rest of this cores run. You can't let a chance to improve the team pass you by just because he's a left hand shot.

[Erick Estrada]

I'm not in love with ROR but discounting his powerplay production is kind of silly IMO as special teams is a big part of today's game. Blake Wheeler amassed half his points this season on the powerplay and Crosby wasn't far behind and guys like Hall and Malkin also piled up a lot of points on the powerplay. Part of being a top player is being able to elevate special teams IMO.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, I wish we had more players who racked up powerplay points. We'd probably be watching Flames playoff hockey right now instead of waiting for an entry draft with no significant picks to mull over.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm not in love with ROR but discounting his powerplay production is kind of silly IMO as special teams is a big part of today's game. Blake Wheeler amassed half his points this season on the powerplay and Crosby wasn't far behind and guys like Hall and Malkin also piled up a lot of points on the powerplay. Part of being a top player is being able to elevate special teams IMO.

Power play production is important. But you need to fit a role on the power play. You don't just throw four guys out there and expect them to produce. You need guys in the right positions, ice time, etc. A power play with four Sean Monahans, four Johnny Gaudreaus, or four Matthew Tkachuks might not have the same effectiveness as a power play with one of each plus one Ilya Kovalchuk.

ROR fits like a glove on Buffalo's underrated (when healthy) PP setup, with Eichel alternating between the point and the left circle, the very underrated Sam Reinhart playing the net-front-ish role, and Rasmus Ristolainen being an excellent PPQB. It's a perfect situation for him, and he deserves credit for his production in that situation.

But if you don't have that spot available, you either put have to put him on PP2 (and cut his PP ice time by half with a big chunk of that being zone entries after PP1 screws up) or move him to whatever spot remains. Do you move him to the right circle? Okay, but then you're doing that stupid Gulutzan thing of keeping Gaudreau on the left circle. Who knows if it works?

It's not plug-and-play.

Guys like Crosby(/Malkin/Kessel) and Wheeler(/Laine) are different because you actually construct your power play around them. You're not building your PP around Patric Hornqvist, even if he had 22 power play points last year. He fit that PP, but that doesn't mean he'd fit our PP where he'd just be taking icetime away from Matthew Tkachuk.

You can't have multiple guys filling the same niche on the power play. At 5v5, yes you can because the ice time is more distributed and less at the mercy of role.

ROR is a 60 point player in his role in Buffalo. Fact.
Would ROR be a 60 point player in his role in Calgary, considering his PP skillset overlaps Monahan and his 5v5 production, as I've shown, actually trails Backlund? And if so, is that just adding 60 points, or are you taking points away from Monahan and ending up barely improving?

Maybe. But what cost are you willing to pay to find out? And if so, is that just adding 60 points, or are you taking points away from Monahan and ending up barely improving? What is the value-added here given the fact that there is no hole on our play that ROR specifically addresses?

If ROR produced like Monahan at 5v5, that's an automatic +20-ish points (in the previous sample size) you're adding over Backlund. That'd be a lot easier to see.

And does ROR play too much at 5v5 anyways? Would his ES icetime be reduced here?

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Power play production is important. But you need to fit a role on the power play. You don't just throw four guys out there and expect them to produce. You need guys in the right positions, ice time, etc. A power play with four Sean Monahans, four Johnny Gaudreaus, or four Matthew Tkachuks might not have the same effectiveness as a power play with one of each plus one Ilya Kovalchuk.

I think your looking into this a little too much. Any team adding a consistent 55-65pt center for the past 7 years is not going to be in a worse spot.

The thing with talented players is that they learn to play with other talented players. Frolik, Brouwer and Bennett at this point in their careers are not top6 players and I'm all for adding talent to push those guys down to a spot where they can be properly utilized.

[Torch]

Brouwer down ? How about launch to the sun!

[Geeoff]

I think adding a guy who's good on the power play can only help a team that's terrible on the power play. Personally, my concern with O'Reilly would be the stuff off the ice. DUIs, multiple trade demands etc.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Power play production is important. But you need to fit a role on the power play. You don't just throw four guys out there and expect them to produce. You need guys in the right positions, ice time, etc. A power play with four Sean Monahans, four Johnny Gaudreaus, or four Matthew Tkachuks might not have the same effectiveness as a power play with one of each plus one Ilya Kovalchuk.

ROR fits like a glove on Buffalo's underrated (when healthy) PP setup, with Eichel alternating between the point and the left circle, the very underrated Sam Reinhart playing the net-front-ish role, and Rasmus Ristolainen being an excellent PPQB. It's a perfect situation for him, and he deserves credit for his production in that situation.

But if you don't have that spot available, you either put have to put him on PP2 (and cut his PP ice time by half with a big chunk of that being zone entries after PP1 screws up) or move him to whatever spot remains. Do you move him to the right circle? Okay, but then you're doing that stupid Gulutzan thing of keeping Gaudreau on the left circle. Who knows if it works?

It's not plug-and-play.

Guys like Crosby(/Malkin/Kessel) and Wheeler(/Laine) are different because you actually construct your power play around them. You're not building your PP around Patric Hornqvist, even if he had 22 power play points last year. He fit that PP, but that doesn't mean he'd fit our PP where he'd just be taking icetime away from Matthew Tkachuk.

You can't have multiple guys filling the same niche on the power play. At 5v5, yes you can because the ice time is more distributed and less at the mercy of role.

ROR is a 60 point player in his role in Buffalo. Fact.
Would ROR be a 60 point player in his role in Calgary, considering his PP skillset overlaps Monahan and his 5v5 production, as I've shown, actually trails Backlund? And if so, is that just adding 60 points, or are you taking points away from Monahan and ending up barely improving?

Maybe. But what cost are you willing to pay to find out? And if so, is that just adding 60 points, or are you taking points away from Monahan and ending up barely improving? What is the value-added here given the fact that there is no hole on our play that ROR specifically addresses?

If ROR produced like Monahan at 5v5, that's an automatic +20-ish points (in the previous sample size) you're adding over Backlund. That'd be a lot easier to see.

And does ROR play too much at 5v5 anyways? Would his ES icetime be reduced here?

ROR is an upgrade on Backlund and there's no doubt in my mind he would make the Flames better. I have no idea what the Sabres would expect in return but if there's a deal to be made I would be all for investigating it. If you have it in your mind he's not worth it well that's your opinion but I'm not buying it. I'm positive Backlund is not good enough as a 2nd line center and it's a big part of the reason this team missed the playoffs this season and this team badly needs to upgrade the 2nd line. ROR does that.