Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by New Era

Draisaitl's contract is going to take some time, and with good reason. I'm sure that his camp is claiming he's the next best thing since sliced McDavid, and his numbers prove that. I'm also sure the Oilers are skeptical that Draisaitl can come close to those numbers carrying a line by himself. $8M+ is for first line players. Draisaitl is likely being hoped to carry the 2nd line, so that much coin seems to be out of the question to management. They are probably hoping to get him on a $5-6M deal, long term. But even doing that they are rolling the dice that Draisaitl can put up 20 goals and 60 points without McJesus carrying the water and chopping the wood. They're likely going to have to agree on a bridge, which will be a prove it contract. Still hoping the Oilers do something stupid and overpay him to the tune of $9.5M x 8 years, but I don't think Chia is that stupid.

IIIIIiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii beg to differ.
Lucic, Thornton, Wheeler,Versteeg, Seguin, Reinhart, Boychuk, Hamilton

[Locke]

Originally Posted by New Era

Draisaitl's contract is going to take some time, and with good reason. I'm sure that his camp is claiming he's the next best thing since sliced McDavid, and his numbers prove that. I'm also sure the Oilers are skeptical that Draisaitl can come close to those numbers carrying a line by himself. $8M+ is for first line players. Draisaitl is likely being hoped to carry the 2nd line, so that much coin seems to be out of the question to management. They are probably hoping to get him on a $5-6M deal, long term. But even doing that they are rolling the dice that Draisaitl can put up 20 goals and 60 points without McJesus carrying the water and chopping the wood. They're likely going to have to agree on a bridge, which will be a prove it contract. Still hoping the Oilers do something stupid and overpay him to the tune of $9.5M x 8 years, but I don't think Chia is that stupid.

They can hope all they want, I dont see it being that low. Lower than Monahan? What kind of comparables would they be using to justify that?

[Torture]

Originally Posted by FlamesFanTrev

I think it's north of that. It seems like the AAV for contracts has taken a step up, almost entirely across the board this year. In part because of McDavid setting a new ceiling, and partly I think because there is an extra ~75 million available dollars in NHL salaries avaliable this year, and an extra ~23 starting NHL jobs to be had (more if you account for injuries and call ups). This leads to a slight watering down of the talent pool on each team across the league, and teams with a little more cap room to spend, shelling out extra AAV in order to lock guys down. I think we've seen a increase in average salary, and this is the new normal. I would expect that Leon is going to see a minmum of 7mil, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it creep up closer to 8mil(Including living in Edmonton bonus)

I agree. I meant close to Gaudreau in terms of situation rather than $ amount.

[Gaudfather]

I can't see Draisaitl signing a long term deal for anything less than an $8MM AAV, but I guess time will tell

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

I can't see Draisaitl signing a long term deal for anything less than an $8MM AAV, but I guess time will tell

Agreed on both points.

[Sainters7]

Agreed, he had a great year, plus given his age and size I get the hype to an extent. But since when did Draisaitl turn into Patrick Kane?

From an Oilers fan perspective I get the excitement, but dude is still very young and had one good year on the wing of the NHL's highest scoring player. I feel like even I could be at least a 0.6 ppg player on McDavid's line simply by passing him the puck.

Watching him sign for superstar money and then seeing him go on an early season slump would be so delicious.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Agreed, he had a great year, plus given his age and size I get the hype to an extent. But since when did Draisaitl turn into Patrick Kane?

From an Oilers fan perspective I get the excitement, but dude is still very young and had one good year on the wing of the NHL's highest scoring player. I feel like even I could be at least a 0.6 ppg player on McDavid's line simply by passing him the puck.

Watching him sign for superstar money and then seeing him go on an early season career-long slump would be so delicious.

I fixed that for you.

Imagine having a $9.5M 50 point player on your books for 8 years.

Now that would be delicious.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Locke

They can hope all they want, I dont see it being that low. Lower than Monahan? What kind of comparables would they be using to justify that?

Originally Posted by Locke

I fixed that for you.

Imagine having a $9.5M 50 point player on your books for 8 years.

Now that would be delicious.

And that is why the Oilers have to be very careful what they pay Draisaitl. If they believe he's living off McDavid, they don't pay him big dollars. They sign a bridge and make him show he can score on his own. If they pay him that big salary and he becomes that 50-60 point player, its a disaster the team will struggle to recover from. I see a bridge coming. Too much risk in paying him that much dough without knowing his production was not a result of McJesus.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by New Era

And that is why the Oilers have to be very careful what they pay Draisaitl. If they believe he's living off McDavid, they don't pay him big dollars. They sign a bridge and make him show he can score on his own. If they pay him that big salary and he becomes that 50-60 point player, its a disaster the team will struggle to recover from. I see a bridge coming. Too much risk in paying him that much dough without knowing his production was not a result of McJesus.

Yes, a Bridge would be a wise move. I'm still hoping for the 8yr x $10M deal though.

Honestly, I think hes somewhere in the middle. Like I've said, going from 51 points to 77 points just screams 'Statistical Anomaly.'

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Agreed, he had a great year, plus given his age and size I get the hype to an extent. But since when did Draisaitl turn into Patrick Kane?

From an Oilers fan perspective I get the excitement, but dude is still very young and had one good year on the wing of the NHL's highest scoring player. I feel like even I could be at least a 0.6 ppg player on McDavid's line simply by passing him the puck.

Watching him sign for superstar money and then seeing him go on an early season slump would be so delicious.

Well that's the talking point, but Eberle and Lucic spent a lot of time on McDavid's line last year and they weren't obliterating their past results.

Maroon's goals were way up last year but he played with Perry/Getlzlaf and put up basically the same ppg in 14/15. Only 40 points when playing with a guy that gets 100 and another guy that gets 77 is probably kind of hard to do actually.

Obviously playing with Mcdavid is not going to hurt, but I'm not sure he or anyone in the NHL explodes his line mates numbers.

Look at Anisimov. Goes from third line center in NY to playing with Kane/Panarin and sees a minimal scoring bump.

I generally think that guys get the numbers, that they have the talent to get.

Now I think that Draisaitl's numbers might be a little inflated due to a high shooting percentage last year, but I think that's just luck in general, and not McDavid induced.

I think his numbers will drop a bit next year. That's an easy bet though because I think most guys need some luck to get into the top ten. From 14/15 to 15/16 only Benn and Crosby repeated as top ten scorers. And from 15/16 to 16/17 only Kane and Crosby repeated.

There are more than a few Oilers fans suggesting a bridge deal. That is probably a non-starter from Draisaitl's camp though. If the Oilers can get something starting with a 7 they have done very well considering Draisaitl's bargaining position.

The Flames were lucky that Gaudreau didn't have arbitration or offer sheet eligibility, or I believe his cap hit would have been in the 7s as well. He mentioned "getting screwed" by his situation in that Barstool Sports interview with Whitney.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Locke

Yes, a Bridge would be a wise move. I'm still hoping for the 8yr x $10M deal though.



Honestly, I think hes somewhere in the middle. Like I've said, going from 51 points to 77 points just screams 'Statistical Anomaly.'

I would argue that it's not a statistical anomaly when that player is 20 or 21 years old.

If that jump happens in their late 20's then sure, but I don't see that as the case here.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

I can't see Draisaitl signing a long term deal for anything less than an $8MM AAV, but I guess time will tell

What has he done to deserve $8m? I would be pleased to see anything over 7

[---Hatrick---]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

What has he done to deserve $8m? I would be pleased to see anything over 7

Two words...
1. Chia
2. Oilers

This is why he will get paid 8 mil per

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bax

I'm all for Draisaitl signing a big contract and then flaking out, but unfortunately I don't see that happening.

First of all, Leon will probably sign for somewhere in that 7.5-9.5 range, right? For that kind of money he doesn't need to be a "super mega star". All he needs to do is perform well as the second best player on his team and put up 60-80 points consistently. That's just what the cap era looks like now.

Secondly, he didn't fall apart once Mcdavid got injured. He got most of his points while McDavid was injured because him and Hall found some chemistry and went on a bit of a tear near the end of the year.

Also, I know small sample size but Leon clearly stood on his own when he was taken off McDavid's wing in the Anaheim series. He is a big body center. Simply put big body centers get paid big time regardless of what fans think. The Oilers have to pay him.

And as for the Warren Young comparison? Not valid in any shape or form. Leon is a third overall pick that just put up 77 points as a a 22 year old. He has had a high pedigree since he was a teenager. Warren Young was a fourth round pick that had one good season when he was 28 years old.

With that being said hopefully Leon gets lazy or demands a trade or something, but until then he is a fantastic young player unfortunately.

All valid points.

But with respect to the bold, just to put things into perspective, if he got the midpoint of that range, he would be getting about $2M more than any player on the Flames roster.

And that makes me very happy.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

All valid points.



But with respect to the bold, just to put things into perspective, if he got the midpoint of that range, he would be getting about $2M more than any player on the Flames roster.



And that makes me very happy.

You and me both my friend!

The Flames are set up really well cap wise for the next 4-5 years. Treliving has done a great job.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well that's the talking point, but Eberle and Lucic spent a lot of time on McDavid's line last year and they weren't obliterating their past results.

Maroon's goals were way up last year but he played with Perry/Getlzlaf and put up basically the same ppg in 14/15. Only 40 points when playing with a guy that gets 100 and another guy that gets 77 is probably kind of hard to do actually.

Obviously playing with Mcdavid is not going to hurt, but I'm not sure he or anyone in the NHL explodes his line mates numbers.

Look at Anisimov. Goes from third line center in NY to playing with Kane/Panarin and sees a minimal scoring bump.

I generally think that guys get the numbers, that they have the talent to get.

Now I think that Draisaitl's numbers might be a little inflated due to a high shooting percentage last year, but I think that's just luck in general, and not McDavid induced.

I think his numbers will drop a bit next year. That's an easy bet though because I think most guys need some luck to get into the top ten. From 14/15 to 15/16 only Benn and Crosby repeated as top ten scorers. And from 15/16 to 16/17 only Kane and Crosby repeated.

There are more than a few Oilers fans suggesting a bridge deal. That is probably a non-starter from Draisaitl's camp though. If the Oilers can get something starting with a 7 they have done very well considering Draisaitl's bargaining position.

The Flames were lucky that Gaudreau didn't have arbitration or offer sheet eligibility, or I believe his cap hit would have been in the 7s as well. He mentioned "getting screwed" by his situation in that Barstool Sports interview with Whitney.

I know you think you're being reasonable and balanced...and I wish I knew you in real life, so I could bet you and tell you that Santa Claus isn't real.

Sometimes life isn't fair.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well that's the talking point, but Eberle and Lucic spent a lot of time on McDavid's line last year and they weren't obliterating their past results.

Maroon's goals were way up last year but he played with Perry/Getlzlaf and put up basically the same ppg in 14/15. Only 40 points when playing with a guy that gets 100 and another guy that gets 77 is probably kind of hard to do actually.

Obviously playing with Mcdavid is not going to hurt, but I'm not sure he or anyone in the NHL explodes his line mates numbers.

Look at Anisimov. Goes from third line center in NY to playing with Kane/Panarin and sees a minimal scoring bump.

I generally think that guys get the numbers, that they have the talent to get.

Now I think that Draisaitl's numbers might be a little inflated due to a high shooting percentage last year, but I think that's just luck in general, and not McDavid induced.

I think his numbers will drop a bit next year. That's an easy bet though because I think most guys need some luck to get into the top ten. From 14/15 to 15/16 only Benn and Crosby repeated as top ten scorers. And from 15/16 to 16/17 only Kane and Crosby repeated.

There are more than a few Oilers fans suggesting a bridge deal. That is probably a non-starter from Draisaitl's camp though. If the Oilers can get something starting with a 7 they have done very well considering Draisaitl's bargaining position.

The Flames were lucky that Gaudreau didn't have arbitration or offer sheet eligibility, or I believe his cap hit would have been in the 7s as well. He mentioned "getting screwed" by his situation in that Barstool Sports interview with Whitney.

It is going to be interesting to see where Draisaitl peaks and plateaus over the years. Some guys don't see much of a bump in points depending on how they are utilized on a line and how a line can build chemistry.

For instance, I think that Anisimov is tasked with being the defensive stalwart on that line to allow Kane and Panarin to free-wheel more. He is going to get an increase in points while doing it, but offence is probably his secondary focus on that line. Draisaitl didn't have that focus being the winger.

Eberle is a tough guy to get a read on with anybody. He just doesn't engage enough in my opinion, and I don't think he goes to the dirty areas enough. McDavid causes havoc with his speed, and that leads to secondary chances. Eberle just didn't get to them often enough (and also suffered from a low shooting percentage IIRC).

Draisaitl I think converted a whole lot of chances. He was way more opportunistic than Eberle, and unlike Eberle, would go to the hard areas. That's a really good part of his game. Nothing wrong with being opportunistic - it still takes a tonne of skill to convert those chances.

The big question for me is if Draisaitl can create enough on his own consistently away from McDavid. We have had short sample sizes thus far. Is Draisaitl the beast during the Anaheim series? Or is he a very strong complimentary player who struggles somewhat when he is 'the guy' on a line? We don't have enough of a sample size in his young career thus far, but I would bet the truth is somewhere in the middle. On which side of the fence he leans to will be really interesting, and that is why any long-term deal with high dollars at this point carries some risk with it. He MAY not be that guy, or he may end up truly an elite center.

[shadowlord]

Not sure if this article has been posted yet, but McLellan is realizing that cap situation the Oilers are facing with their various big-dollar contracts.

McLellan: McDavid's deal gave Oilers 'a very tight wallet'

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/13...y-tight-wallet

It's been 26 days since Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl became a restricted free agent and still he remains without a contract.

However, since then the Oilers locked up captain Connor McDavid to an eight-year, $100-million contract and as head coach Todd McLellan explains, the deal has eaten a lot of the team's cap space.

"Obviously with Connor's (contract), Leon's, and some of the players that are coming up, it's become a very tight wallet, if you will," McLellan said, according to NHL.com's Derek Van Diest. "I'm not talking about the dollars that are going out, but just about the cap space. Not only does (general manager) Peter (Chiarelli) have to manage the team that is going on the ice, he has to manage the team that's in the books as well, and that's not going to change for many years."

Despite the money predicament that appears to have dragged out negotiations with Draisaitl, McLellan remains confident he'll be back with the club next season and beyond.

"I'm confident we're going to see Leon in an (Oilers) uniform," McLellan said. "We want him to be there, he wants to be there, and it's just a matter of getting a few things done over the summer."

Draisaitl took a dramatic step forward last season, proving he should be a big part of the Oilers for years to come. The 21-year-old posted career highs in all offensive categories with 29 goals and 77 points, while playing in all 82 games. He was also the team's top producer in the playoffs finishing with six goals and 16 points in 13 games.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Not sure if this article has been posted yet, but McLellan is realizing that cap situation the Oilers are facing with their various big-dollar contracts.

McLellan: McDavid's deal gave Oilers 'a very tight wallet'

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/13...y-tight-wallet

Yep, they have next to no room for error in terms of needing to develop value contracts from within. Something they've proven to be outright inept at in recent years.

Their top two forwards will make more than our top four D, which is considered one of the deepest in the league.

They are going to be a very top heavy team in contract purgatory for many years. Lets hope it keeps them lumbering and stumbling.

[CaptainCrunch]

Oh Oilers the Salary Cap is the fire in which you burn.