Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

So you want to trade them right now?

No, they won't really have any more value now then they will later. Those are the types of contracts you move early in the offseason (when teams haven't already filled out their payrolls) or at the deadline (when they can squeeze the pro-rated salary under what they have left).

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Cappy

So you want to trade them right now?

I agree that holding on to players too long can bite you (Hello Phillies), but I am sure the team's rationale is that the money flows when the team is competitive. They had some pretty lean years attendance wise before the win streak. Unlike the Flames, a baseball rebuild in Toronto isnt guaranteed to attract sell outs.

I don't think they need impact arms in the pen, and worst case they can find those as the season progresses.

If Boston wins 100 games, the jays don't need to win 101 to be in the playoffs. A WC game is still a viable option at this point.

In order of what I would have liked the Jays to do:
1. Sign EE and JB (Or similar OF), and spend $20 million on Bullpen and a bench bat like Pierce.
2. Similar offseason, and spend 20 million on Bullpen
3. Don't sign EE or JB, trade Martin for what Yankees got for McCann. Trade Estrada since hes coming off an injury and has 1 year left, trade Happ. Use the 45$ million to sign good bullpen and depth starters. Trade bullpen guys at deadline for more spects if out of it.
4. Field a worst team then last season when Boston, Seattle, Houston and Cleveland all got better on paper.

We chose 4. And you stated exactly why. The flow of $$, not because it makes baseball sense.

[Alberta_Beef]

I thought the idea of Bautista coming back was no more than lip service to the fans so they could say they tried?

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I think there is truth to this but what some fans, and perhaps management struggles with, is that re-builds in baseball have far more risk. Or maybe that's just my perception.
How many deals where you trade off a productive major leaguer results in a return of great prospects - all of whom end up being nothing.
The Doc trade comes to mind.

The Halladay deal is the exact reason the Jays should have no problems trading every last single prospect they have in years where a championship is in sight. Most of these guys never pan out, and it's very easy to rebuild your prospect supply quickly by selling off assets or by signing internationals. Look at the Jays roster the past two years. How many of those guys are home grown talent? Stroman (late first round), Sanchez (Supplemental Draft pick 34th overall), Osuna (international signing), and Pillar (32nd round) are the only one I can think of.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

In order of what I would have liked the Jays to do:
1. Sign EE and JB (Or similar OF), and spend $20 million on Bullpen and a bench bat like Pierce.
2. Similar offseason, and spend 20 million on Bullpen
3. Don't sign EE or JB, trade Martin for what Yankees got for McCann. Trade Estrada since hes coming off an injury and has 1 year left, trade Happ. Use the 45$ million to sign good bullpen and depth starters. Trade bullpen guys at deadline for more spects if out of it.
4. Field a worst team then last season when Boston, Seattle, Houston and Cleveland all got better on paper.

We chose 4. And you stated exactly why. The flow of $$, not because it makes baseball sense.

I don't agree with spending that on Bullpen. I think the Jays approach to filling the bullpen is the right one. There is so much volatility, the better deals are found in the bargain bin than spending $30 million on Brett Cecil. Biagini, Jason Grilli, and Joaquin Benoit were massive contributors to the bullpen last year. Who would have predicted that?

I also don't think the Jays are THAT much worse than last year heading into the season, and there's a good argument to be made they're at least as good. Pearce's bat and utility is an under appreciated asset that gives Gibby more flexibility than he's had in awhile, and starting the year with Liriano in the rotation vs the tire fire that was Dickey is a big upgrade IMO.

People need to relax. This team, as it stands now in January, is more than capable of fighting for a wild card spot. A couple tweaks heading into Spring training (backup catcher, LH reliever, perhaps OF depth) and things look even better.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I thought the idea of Bautista coming back was no more than lip service to the fans so they could say they tried?

Where have you read that on here? That was said about Edwin and not Bautista, which I think is easily argued.

I think it was pretty much accepted Bautista would be back here when it was determined the Jays had exhausted all other outfield options and no teams were interested in bringing Bautista on because of the pick. The Jays had him by the balls.

Let's be honest here though , the Jays didn't really want Bautista, it's what they ended up with. He's the best of what was left was willing to take a one year deal at this point because his market completely tanked on him. Would be pretty hard at this point for the Jays to say they tried at resigning Bautista if he were to sign elsewhere. As much as Bautista was forced to sign with the Jays, the Jays were forced to sign him.

What an absolutely weird working arrangement. Neither side is really each other's first choice, and are basically forced to work together by circumstance. Should be good for Jays fans though, because an angry Bautista mashes, and he's got nothing but incentive this year if he hopes to opt out of his deal or get the option picked up.

[Jason14h]

I don't agree with spending that on Bullpen. I think the Jays approach to filling the bullpen is the right one. There is so much volatility, the better deals are found in the bargain bin than spending $30 million on Brett Cecil. Biagini, Jason Grilli, and Joaquin Benoit were massive contributors to the bullpen last year. Who would have predicted that?

The issue is we had the worst bullpen in MLB for the first half. And that's with a surprising rule 5 Biagini.

Then we got two old men, who had amazing 2nd halves, and turned it around.

From that group last year, we lost Cecil and Benoit. We are depending on a 40 year old and a 21 year old to anchor a short bullpen with no lefties.

Could we find 2 more gems like that out of no where? Sure anything can happen. But what is most likely to happen? I'm betting that a bullpen with no lefties, a 40 year old, and kid who's arm is being worked more then any closer at his age, may have injury and performance issues.

Another major fact that everyone is ignoring is we had all 5 starters stay healthy last season. And we just managed to make playoffs.

The team can not afford 20 blown saves this season.

[Jason14h]

I thought the idea of Bautista coming back was no more than lip service to the fans so they could say they tried?

Always contributing with well thought out ideas and opinions!

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I don't agree with spending that on Bullpen. I think the Jays approach to filling the bullpen is the right one. There is so much volatility, the better deals are found in the bargain bin than spending $30 million on Brett Cecil. Biagini, Jason Grilli, and Joaquin Benoit were massive contributors to the bullpen last year. Who would have predicted that?

I also don't think the Jays are THAT much worse than last year heading into the season, and there's a good argument to be made they're at least as good. Pearce's bat and utility is an under appreciated asset that gives Gibby more flexibility than he's had in awhile, and starting the year with Liriano in the rotation vs the tire fire that was Dickey is a big upgrade IMO.

People need to relax. This team, as it stands now in January, is more than capable of fighting for a wild card spot. A couple tweaks heading into Spring training (backup catcher, LH reliever, perhaps OF depth) and things look even better.

I think you under estimate how big of a problem the bullpen is. It's been the teams achilles heal from April - June each of the past two years. Both years the team basically had to go out and completely revamp their bullpen in order to turn the corner. 2015 they added Hawkins, Lowe, and Tolleson. In 2016 they added Grilli, Benoit, Feldman, and Liriano to an extent.

The team had to make up serious ground in both 2015 and 2016. While they are still a good team and capable of making the playoffs/wildcard, it will be much harder to make up that ground again if the bullpen flounders for a third consecutive year with their immediate competition in the division and for the wildcard improving. Hopefully they won't take that chance again and sign some guys before spring training starts. History suggests otherwise though.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The issue is we had the worst bullpen in MLB for the first half.

Don't know if anyone told you this but the games don't end with the first half. Spending that kind of dough on the bullpen of all things is a giant waste of money. Jays do need a lefty and I'm confident they'll get one... but that's all the Bullpen needs (and it can always be bolstered cheaply later).

I'd probably put the lefty reliever at the head of the "To Do" list now, then another outfielder (Angel Pagan or a pure platoon LH bat), then back-up C.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Don't know if anyone told you this but the games don't end with the first half. Spending that kind of dough on the bullpen of all things is a giant waste of money. Jays do need a lefty and I'm confident they'll get one... but that's all the Bullpen needs (and it can always be bolstered cheaply later).

I'd probably put the lefty reliever at the head of the "To Do" list now, then another outfielder (Angel Pagan or a pure platoon LH bat), then back-up C.

You'd be signing a different tune if the Jays didn't make that Wildcard game last year, or lost to Baltimore when they probably would have won the division if their bullpen had have been probably dealt with in the offseason rather than waiting until July after they'd blown a major league leading amount of games.

[Keselke]

What a Toronto move

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Always contributing with well thought out ideas and opinions!

I'm sorry should I put on a tinfoil hat and cry about Rogers every turn possible like you and TAO? It's cute that you polish TAO's tinfoil hat though.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I'm sorry should I put on a tinfoil hat and cry about Rogers every turn possible like you and TAO? It's cute that you polish TAO's tinfoil hat though.

Another solid baseball contribution.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

You'd be signing a different tune if the Jays didn't make that Wildcard game last year

Given that they did make that wildcard game last year and you're still singing the same tired old song you'll forgive me if I don't take that comment seriously.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The issue is we had the worst bullpen in MLB for the first half. And that's with a surprising rule 5 Biagini.

Then we got two old men, who had amazing 2nd halves, and turned it around.

From that group last year, we lost Cecil and Benoit. We are depending on a 40 year old and a 21 year old to anchor a short bullpen with no lefties.

Could we find 2 more gems like that out of no where? Sure anything can happen. But what is most likely to happen? I'm betting that a bullpen with no lefties, a 40 year old, and kid who's arm is being worked more then any closer at his age, may have injury and performance issues.

Another major fact that everyone is ignoring is we had all 5 starters stay healthy last season. And we just managed to make playoffs.

The team can not afford 20 blown saves this season.

What was the acquisition cost of acquiring Grilli and Benoit? If old man Grilli falters, then you can part with an unsubstantial prospect and/or eat some salary at the deadline to take a flier on someone else. These aren't the most complicated deals to make. The roster, as constructed, could very well get them to the trade deadline in contention for the wild card/division, and the front office will have to make some decisions on adding impact arms down the stretch.

Overspending on relievers in free agency isn't the only way to acquire relievers.

[KelVarnsen]

Next step should be releasing Smoak

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

You'd be signing a different tune if the Jays didn't make that Wildcard game last year, or lost to Baltimore when they probably would have won the division if their bullpen had have been probably dealt with in the offseason rather than waiting until July after they'd blown a major league leading amount of games.

The Jays bullpen was fantastic in the postseason. This is, with the exception of Cecil, the same pen we're going to war with heading into this season.

With a LHP specialist to replace Cecil, the pen will be just fine to start the year.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

What was the acquisition cost of acquiring Grilli and Benoit?

Grilli: Sean Ratcliffe (AKA nothing basically)
Benoit: Drew Storen (AKA poor performance bullpen arm)

Decent relievers are always cheaply available mid-season.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Given that they did make that wildcard game last year and you're still singing the same tired old song you'll forgive me if I don't take that comment seriously.

They did, with much less competition. If the bullpen flounders again though, good luck making up that ground with two teams within our own division improved and most of the wildcard teams also making improvements.

This team's windows is closing, not sure why you think leaving the bullpen to chance is a wise idea.

It's really the only position we need to fill that is left. Not sure why we don't take a run at Blevins.