Iran and Saudi Arabia restore relations

[Fuzz]

Well that would explain why that have such interest in the arctic lately.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by blankall

China has been quite clear that they see the surrounding Asian territory as within their sphere of influence. They are in a massive expansionist phase, and their game plan is pretty simple, involving economic development.

If you go back to the 1800s and 1900s Russia and China were actively fighting over Siberia. China was pushed out of Siberia by a combined effort of Russia, the UK, France, the US, and Japan, through a series of treaties that China now refers to as the "Unequal Treaties". Even Mongolia was a part of China until they achieved independence solely via Soviet assistance.

With Russia unlikely to have the population to hold onto Siberia long term, many people are speculating that China will move in....first economically, then with its people, then politically.

What is their game plan?

At one moment I can be reading about how China's economy is going to implode because of an aging population and lack of working age people, and then I read how China is going to take over a region with a supposedly more severe problem of aging population as an economic benefit, when they have a good trading relationship and access to resources via trade anyways.

There's definitely a history of conflict there, and China has its own interests to take care of, but in terms of China making a play to take over Siberia or anything else east of the Urals I'm just seeing fringe speculation.

I can tell you I don't think I've ever heard anyone talking like that in China, and I've lived in the north near Siberia. I haven't read anything from the government or media that suggests this either. It's not how modern Chinese people look at Russia or Siberia in anything I've been exposed to, and while my knowledge can't be comprehensive I do read policy papers and strategy documents from China.

[jammies]

I'm willing to believe many bad things about the CCP, but the theory they are playing the long game to invade or subsume Siberia is nonsense. Make Russia a junior strategic partner? Sure, that makes sense. A deliberate plan to destroy Russia and plunder the corpse? No.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by jammies

I'm willing to believe many bad things about the CCP, but the theory they are playing the long game to invade or subsume Siberia is nonsense. Make Russia a junior strategic partner? Sure, that makes sense. A deliberate plan to destroy Russia and plunder the corpse? No.

The CCP are certainly opportunists. No on is saying that Russia going to collapse overnight or that there are immediate plans to take over Siberia. China doesn't even really have to do that, as long as they can continue to plunder Siberia's resources and flood the area with Chinese citizens.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50185006

[sharkov]

With both China and Russia prime enemy being the US, they are unlikely to turn on each other as that would lead each to be in a weaker position in dealing with the us and europe

[Matata]

I don't think it's too hard to assume that China would want to enjoy economic and cultural dominance over it's surrounding nations. Their whole playbook has been plagiarized from the US, who've basically mastered the art of dominating foreign nations in such a manner. Conquest isn't required once you figure out how to milk the cow for free.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Matata

I don't think it's too hard to assume that China would want to enjoy economic and cultural dominance over it's surrounding nations. Their whole playbook has been plagiarized from the US, who've basically mastered the art of dominating foreign nations in such a manner. Conquest isn't required once you figure out how to milk the cow for free.

I'm not sure the US invented that playbook. The strategy of using client states has likely been around as long as people have.

Once again, China is a long game nation. They don't need to invade anywhere. They can just let Russia continue to collapse while they continue to move their people and resources into the area over time.

Multiple regions in Eastern Russia already have a very heavy Chinese presence, and everyday the Russian population there dwindles. If you look at that link I provided, the Chinese already control the majority of the farms in the Jewish Oblast and the Khaborovsk Krai region:



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50185006

There's nothing historically Russian about Siberia. The way Russia is trending, they simply don't have the resources to continue controlling Siberia much longer.

[activeStick]

Relevant

https://twitter.com/user/status/1635720201537716248

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by blankall

I'm not sure the US invented that playbook. The strategy of using client states has likely been around as long as people have.

Once again, China is a long game nation. They don't need to invade anywhere. They can just let Russia continue to collapse while they continue to move their people and resources into the area over time.

Multiple regions in Eastern Russia already have a very heavy Chinese presence, and everyday the Russian population there dwindles. If you look at that link I provided, the Chinese already control the majority of the farms in the Jewish Oblast and the Khaborovsk Krai region:



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50185006

There's nothing historically Russian about Siberia. The way Russia is trending, they simply don't have the resources to continue controlling Siberia much longer.

They’ll probably end up selling Siberia to China like the Russian empire sold Alaska to the USA

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Relevant

https://twitter.com/user/status/1635720201537716248

Nm, but this is nonsense

[JohnnyB]

China's whole path into modernization has been driven by urban migration. Go visit the countryside of China and you will see it's full of farming villages where you only find the elderly and little kids. The middle generation is all missing as they moved to the cities, and nobody is left to do the farming. China has been sufficiently worried about not having enough people doing farming in their own rural areas that they've been advancing policies to motivate people to move back to their own countryside. Hardly seems like a situation that threatens an excess of Chinese farmers populating all of Siberia in some weird twist on replacement theory.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

China's whole path into modernization has been driven by urban migration. Go visit the countryside of China and you will see it's full of farming villages where you only find the elderly and little kids. The middle generation is all missing as they moved to the cities, and nobody is left to do the farming. China has been sufficiently worried about not having enough people doing farming in their own rural areas that they've been advancing policies to motivate people to move back to their own countryside. Hardly seems like a situation that threatens an excess of Chinese farmers populating all of Siberia in some weird twist on replacement theory.

The rural population of the entirety of Siberia is less than 10 million people, with many of these people not even being Russian. China has a total population of 1.4 billion with at least 500 million still in rural areas.

It would take a relatively small amount of migration to bring huge parts of Siberia under Chinese cultural and economic influence.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Relevant

https://twitter.com/user/status/1635720201537716248

You lost me at the stable part....With the exception of some of some of the Gulf States, every nation in the middle east is embroiled in conflict, collapsed, and/or on the verge of collapse.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by blankall

The rural population of the entirety of Siberia is less than 10 million people, with many of these people not even being Russian. China has a total population of 1.4 billion with at least 500 million still in rural areas.

It would take a relatively small amount of migration to bring huge parts of Siberia under Chinese cultural and economic influence.

Can you point in the direction of any policy paper, speech, strategy paper, state media piece, opinion piece from a state-aligned organization or anything like that from the Chinese sphere that advocates for or supports the idea?

I mean, it's kind of interesting as a speculative idea, but unless there's something substantial grounding it I don't see how anyone could take it seriously as more than a fringe conspiracy theory, and a conspiracy theory that's maybe working in some 'ethnic replacement' kind of tropes that are always worth being careful around.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by blankall

You lost me at the stable part....With the exception of some of some of the Gulf States, every nation in the middle east is embroiled in conflict, collapsed, and/or on the verge of collapse.

It's just more gas lighting by America, but hey, it clearly works on some.

[PeteMoss]

How much of that is due to the US though? I don't think they help - but its not a stable region.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

How much of that is due to the US though? I don't think they help - but its not a stable region.

I do agree somewhat. The US removing the elected government of Iran in the 1950s was a pretty big blow to stability.

The US also removed several dictators leading to anarchy. This one is more arguable, as life under dictators is stable, in the sense that they kill millions of their own people, which really isn't stability.

[JohnnyB]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1636313903985577984

[blankall]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

https://twitter.com/user/status/1636313903985577984

This is actually fantastic news if true and could save the lives of hundreds of thousands....although a country promising to halt shipments they never acknowledged making comes with its own set of issues.

[sharkov]

China sending lethal aid to Russia

At the same time China trying to invade Russia

Make it make sense