Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Draisatl was an absolute beast in the playoffs away from McDavid.

A lot of that was due to shooting percentage though - when they were apart they were both getting dominated from a Corsi% and both tend to be much more productive together.

Playoffs:

Together:
-51.2% Corsi For
-66.7% Goals For
-11.11% On Ice Shooting Percentage

Draisaitl Without McDavid:
-42.2% Corsi For
-71.4% Goals For
-16.13%(!) On Ice Shooting Percentage

McDavid Without Draisaitl:
-41.6% Corsi For
-37.5% Goals For
-7.5% On Ice Shooting Percentage

Similar in the regular season that both guys are much better together, McDavid is still elite without Draisaitl but Draisaitl wasn't very good without McDavid.

Regular Season:

Together:
-53.8% Corsi For
-59.4% Goals For
-10.88% On Ice Shooting Percentage


Draisaitl Without McDavid:
-47.9% Corsi For
-44.2% Goals For
-8.15% On Ice Shooting Percentage

McDavid Without Draisaitl:
-52.0% Corsi For
-65.5% Goals For (Due to a crazy .940 save percentage during this time)
-10.59% On Ice Shooting Percentage

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

A lot of that was due to shooting percentage though - when they were apart they were both getting dominated from a Corsi% and both tend to be much more productive together.

...stats...

Yup. People were calling the Flames unsustainable in 2015 because they had a ~102 PDO when they made the playoffs. Draisaitl had a 115 (!) PDO away from McDavid in the playoffs - not only did he have an on-ice shooting percentage of 16%, Talbot was also saving 99% of shots.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Yup. People were calling the Flames unsustainable in 2015 because they had a ~102 PDO when they made the playoffs. Draisaitl had a 115 (!) PDO away from McDavid in the playoffs - not only did he have an on-ice shooting percentage of 16%, Talbot was also saving 99% of shots.

I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.

[Vinny01]

It will be interesting to see what the Oil do this summer. Sekera is hurt for the first couple months of the year, and I do think Strome is a downgrade on Eberle.

Does Puljujarvi make the team? Do they make other improvements?

I am not convinced that internal improvement is going to continue to push this team forward when rivals like the Flames have made a couple big additions and are looking to do more before next season starts.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.

That's the point. His playoff performance without McDavid is no where representative of his future playoff play without McDavid due to small sample size

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by GGG

That's the point. His playoff performance without McDavid is no where representative of his future playoff play without McDavid due to small sample size

True, the PDO confirms his goal scoring streak was a fluke but I'm guessing even Oilers fans aren't delusional enough to think his 2 PPG pace against the Ducks represents his future potential playing away from McDavid.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

I think there's a big difference in sample size and predictability when looking at an entire team's PDO over the course of 82 games vs. looking at one player's PDO during a 13 game stretch, only considering the minutes he wasn't playing with a regular linemate.

In terms of the conclusions you draw, there's not much difference. Success in hockey (goals) is massively impacted by percentages even over large sample sizes. Over a 13 game sample size, it's almost entirely due to the percentage.

Although, now that I think about it some more, a PDO of 102 over an 82 game sample is probably a comparable outlier to a PDO of 115 over a 13 game sample.

To be clear, I think both results (Flames making the playoffs in 2015, Draisaitl scoring a lot of points this year) were unsustainable.

[Oil Stain]

I think Draisaitl was carrying a bit of luck throughout the season and the playoffs myself.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if his numbers drop coming into 2017/18.

The problem for a GM though is that Draisaitl produced the numbers he did. If you approach him in negotiations quoting PDO he'd tell you to go make love to your hat.

Based on comparables you kind of have to give him $7-8 million long term. The other option would be to offer him a bridge. If he doesn't like that, then the offer sheet risk becomes very real.

Do you let a guy who could be a 60-70 point guy for you go for draft picks over a million extra dollars?

That's a pretty tough choice to make.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I think Draisaitl was carrying a bit of luck throughout the season and the playoffs myself.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if his numbers drop coming into 2017/18.

The problem for a GM though is that Draisaitl produced the numbers he did. If you approach him in negotiations quoting PDO he'd tell you to go make love to your hat.

Based on comparables you kind of have to give him $7-8 million long term. The other option would be to offer him a bridge. If he doesn't like that, then the offer sheet risk becomes very real.

Do you let a guy who could be a 60-70 point guy for you go for draft picks over a million extra dollars?

That's a pretty tough choice to make.

You do not approach this man and tell him to 'make love to his hat...'

He may well do it.

[topfiverecords]

Do the Bruins have the draft picks required for a Draisaitl offer sheet?

[IrishSpring2013]

there isnt much to be done about the mcdavid deal.. but chia has proven to be a soft negotiatior in the past.. and if he lets the draisaitl contract get out of hand hes going to be in trouble..

dont be afraid of bad feelings.. it happens during discussions.. im sure there was lots with gaudreau but now hes out recruiting Spencer Foo for his team.. if chia has to use points iwth and without crosby.. do it.. but again Peter is a terrible negotiator and dry will get p a i d

[Realistic]

Coiler fans think they can dump Lucic and only eat $1 million of his salary! What are they putting in the water up there!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Realistic

Coiler fans think they can dump Lucic and only eat $1 million of his salary! What are they putting in the water up there!

One year into a 7 year deal.

These are good times, my friends.

[Ashasx]

Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.

Problem is it will probably work.

[ah123]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.

Problem is it will probably work.

Isn't there a rule that only get cap relief for LTIR players after the season starts? That would mean that they need to be cap compliant on day one of the season with Lucic on the roster, and they can sign someone else after that (with the cap space)

[Roof-Daddy]

If someone drops a $9.5 AAV offer sheet onto Draisaitl, I imagine there is a chance the oilers walk away from it even despite Chiarelli saying they'd match anything.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.

Problem is it will probably work.

Does Giordano have a history of hangnails?

Someone better start digging for his out.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by ah123

Isn't there a rule that only get cap relief for LTIR players after the season starts? That would mean that they need to be cap compliant on day one of the season with Lucic on the roster, and they can sign someone else after that (with the cap space)

When teams/players pull injury shenanigans they're essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul & only hurting the players. The players get 50% of revenue no more no less. The more injuries and "injuries" artificially increase the cap to only increase player escrow. The back diving deals like Hossa are one thing, a contract like Dustin Browns or Lucic is another.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Does Giordano have a history of hangnails?

Someone better start digging for his out.

We'll worry about that when his play actually dips.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Lots of Oilers fans on HF think they'll be able to pull a Bowman and soon put Lucic on LTIR for Scheuermann's disease.

Problem is it will probably work.

Well until the NHL suspicious of Lucic going on asks to see all of the notes and examinations by the Oilers team physician and its peer renewed by NHL doctors and consultants and they realize that its cap circumvention and force Lucic back on the roster. Oh and file an ethical complaint against the Oilers team doctors for what is equivalent to fraud costing him his license.

All of these players that go on LTIR, that essentially require what is equivalent to a second opinion outside of the team doctor, and these area also reviewed by the NHL.


No doctor is going to basically perform a fraudulent act to put Lucic on that list.

The NHL won't allow it, the other 30 teams in the league will be calling the NHL the minute that Lucic goes on that list if his contract isn't expired.