Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
To hope they move from exactly 28th to exactly 29th, which is the only net gain in draft value per the chart, I believe occurs if and only if:
- Vancouver is the worst division winner.
- The other 3 division winners are already in the conference finals.
- Vancouver joins them in the Final Four and does not make the Stanley Cup Finals.
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If the other three division winners make the conference finals, and Vancouver doesn't, it does not matter what order they finished in. Vancouver will still draft 28th.
For Vancouver to draft 29th, it would have to lose the Western Conference finals, and finish the regular season behind the loser of the Eastern Conference finals.
It's still pretty unlikely, but there are several avenues. Basically, the Canucks are unlikely to draft earlier than 28th unless they fail to win the division.
In practical terms, this draft looks pretty wide open after about the 20th pick, so the difference from 28 to about 30 might not even change the Flames' pick. It's quite likely that the player they think is BPA at 28 is still available at 30. If that is the case, it's definitely beneficial to get the 3rd rather than the 4th.
That, at any rate, is how I'm looking at it.
