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Old 06-27-2017, 10:59 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.

The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?
So what would you have then...not fill lineup holes or try to improve for fear that it may not work out? Manage to the downside?
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Old 06-27-2017, 11:00 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.

The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?
Do you live in a storm shelter?
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Old 06-27-2017, 11:06 AM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.
I guess the question here would be how you would propose the Flames plan for these contingencies. Should they start every season with the expectation that disastrous things will likely happen to keep them out of the playoffs?

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The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games...
What do you mean by "bottom tier"? How have you arrived at that designation for Mike Smith?

FYI, when answering this second question you will need to provide an explanation for this:

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Old 06-27-2017, 11:12 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.

The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?

The Flames fall back in 2016 was predicted by many. Dallas had a questionable blueline and then still let Demers and Russell go, and did nothing in net. Florida went Loco for a good year and had the whole Tom Rowe fiasco. Winnipeg did what they always do and make zero changes to their roster and were unable to move forward.

Mike Smith is not Cory Schneider, or Carey Price but he is an upgrade on Elliott. If Johnson is brought back the Flames have a capable backup.

They went out and improved the team from last year significantly with the Hamonic pickup. They also have room to continue to improve the back end and upmfront. When they made the Hamilton and Frolik moves they were designed to push the Flames forward but the "find a way Flames" didn't have the same luck in 2016.

Last years team under Gulutzan deserved to be in the playoffs and were a top 10 team after a bad first 6 weeks of the season.
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Old 06-27-2017, 11:46 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.

The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?
Funny that you mentioned the teams that you did: Dallas, Winnipeg, and Florida. However, there's one unifying factor between all of those teams which led them to a massive letdown after their breakthrough seasons: positional weakness.

First, you mentioned Dallas. The year that they finished 2nd overall, their forwards all played terrifically, with Benn, Spezza, Seguin, and Sharp all eclipsing 50 points. Heck, Hemsky and Eakin came close to 40. Their defense was okay, but not very defensively-oriented, with Oduya and Goligoski carrying much of the load in the d-zone. Lehtonen and Niemi were OKAY, but not earth-shattering.

So what changed? The next season, their guys stopped scoring. Benn went from 89 to 69 points. Spezza, from 63 to 50. Sharp, from 55 to 18. Eakin, from 35 to 12. Seguin was the only guy who really remained constant, going from 73 to 72 points (albeit in ten more games). Their big guns stopped working, and they lost their best defensive defensemen in Oduya and Goligoski to Chicago and Arizona. Lehtonen and Niemi went from OKAY to terrible, with Niemi posting a Hiller-esque 3.30 GAA and an .892 SV%. The forwards stopped scoring, and with it, their positional weaknesses at defense were exposed, leading to the goaltending faltering and the team going downhill.

Next, you mentioned Winnipeg. The year that the Jets made the playoffs, it was largely on the back of Ondrej Pavelec, who stunned with a career-best .920 SV%. It was by far the best mark of his NHL career, and was very impressive at the time. His backup, Michael Hutchinson, also played very well, putting up a .914 in 38 games. Andrew Ladd had the best season of his career, scoring 62 points, and he was surrounded by a crop of forwards who also put up then-career-best totals (or near them), including Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler, Michael Frolik, Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault, Drew Stafford, Adam Lowry, and rentals Lee Stempniak and Jiri Tlusty. The defense was solid, if unspectacular, boasting a proven #1 in Dustin Byfuglien and surrounding him with Jacob Trouba, Toby Enstrom, Tyler Myers, and a rotating cast of bottom-pairing guys.

What changed in the MTS Centre the next year? Well, for one, they lost some of their scoring. Frolik signed in Calgary, Stempniak and Tlusty bolted to New Jersey, and Ladd was traded at the next year's deadline to Chicago after an underwhelming year. Wheeler and Scheifele did both put up bigger numbers in 2015-16 and Nik Ehlers made an impressive debut, but most everyone else regressed. Perreault saw his goal total halve from 18 to 9. Little got hurt, and while he had a higher points/game, he wasn't around to score as many. Enstrom played himself out of the top-4 for long stretches, having his spot replaced with Paul Postma for much of the year. But what really sunk the Jets was their goaltending. Pavelec tanked, recording a .904 SV%. Hutchinson was less 'worse', but he too disappointed, posting a .907. Connor Hellebuyck was good in his first 26 games, putting up a .918, but the next year, he too posted a .907.

So, finally, we move on to Florida. Their big year, 2015-16, was made possible by... wait for it... strong depth and overachievement at all positions. Up front, Jaromir Jagr led the way with 66 points, with Jussi Jokinen, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sasha Barkov, Vincent Trochek, and Reilly Smith all posting at least 50. Past that, Nick Bjugstad, Brandon Pirri, and deadline acquisitions Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell all provided terrific depth up front, creating a deadly top-9. The Panthers also boasted a great defensive corps, led by young star Aaron Ekblad. Veteran Brian Campbell solidified the top pair, while Alex Petrovic and Dmitry Kulikov rounded out the top-4. Former top-3 pick Erik Gudbranson was allowed to play on the bottom pairing, where he belongs, with Willie Mitchell, and they both played well. In net, Roberto Luongo had a vintage season, going 35-19-6 with a .922 SV%, and Al Montoya was a terrific backup, putting up a .919 of his own.

What changed in Sunrise last year? For one, they lost a lot of scoring. Barkov, Huberdeau, and Bjugstad were out for much of the season, Smith fell from 50 to 37 points, Jagr dipped by 20 points, and Jokinen fell by 32. While Jonathan Marchessault managed to score 30 goals and 51 points, everyone suspected that to be unsustainable in Florida, and that's true already, because he'll be in Vegas next year, as will Reilly Smith for some reason. That leads into another huge point as to why Florida failed: managerial incompetence. For some reason, Florida finishing with 103 points was ample reason to "promote" Dale Tallon and replace him with Tom Rowe, a power-tripping buffoon who echoes of Mike Milbury. Rowe ended up firing Jack Adams nominee Gerard Gallant in a fit of pique, and he'll be joining Marchessault and Smith in Vegas next year.

So, we see that in these three cases, guys either stopped scoring, the goaltending stopped playing well, and management began meddling with something that was already working. In the Flames' case, the first two already sort of happened last year. Johnny Gaudreau went from 78 points to 61, Troy Brouwer fell from 39 points to 25, Sam Bennett went from 38 points to 26... and they still made the playoffs. Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson were OKAY, but not terrific. They both barely posted .910s after rough starts to the year. But we know that management isn't awful like in Florida, and the Flames, as mentioned, MADE THE PLAYOFFS last year even when a lot of things went wrong.

We've seen a situation before here where everything went right for the Flames to make the playoffs, and everything went wrong the next year and they missed. In 2014-15, Jiri Hudler scored 31 goals and 76 points, Dennis Wideman had 15 goals and 56 points, Lance Bouma had 16 goals and 34 points, David Jones had 15 goals and 30 points, and Jonas Hiller had 26 wins and a .918 SV%. The next season, Hudler scored 35 points with the Flames before being shipped off to Florida, Wideman scored 13 fewer goals and 37 fewer points during a nightmare season, Bouma stopped scoring and went down to 2 goals and 7 points, Jones scored as many points (9 goals + 6 assists) as he'd had goals the previous year before being shipped off to Minnesota, and Hiller fell to an abhorrent .879 SV%. We know what it's like to have an amazingly lucky year, and then see that come back to bite us.

Now, Mike Smith. You mentioned him as a bottom-tier starter who is expected to play 50 games. For your information, Smith did play 50 games last year, and he played 55 very good games, putting up a 19-26-9 record and a .914 SV% on one of the NHL's very worst defensive teams. Don't call Dave Tippett a good defensive coach. That might have been true in 2011 when he had Ekman-Larsson and Ed Jovanovski and guys like that... Smith was hung out to dry last year and he won't be this year. Arizona had one REALLY good defenseman last year, and then had a bunch of 4/5 guys like Goligoski, Luke Schenn, and Michael Stone. The Flames have four REALLY good defensemen, and might sign a fifth on July 1st. Smith will love it playing behind Hamilton, Giordano, Brodie, and Hamonic. Why did I list Hamilton first? Because he's the best ####ing defenseman ever, ricardo, and I need you to know that.

The Flames are going to make the playoffs next year, and they're going to make it easily. With a hot start, Gaudreau, Monahan, and Backlund should all be firing at full-speed. Frolik, Tkachuk, and Bennett should all post good numbers, and I expect Brouwer to improve as he accustoms himself to the team. If Versteeg and Chiasson are back, even better.

The Islanders will be picking in the 20s next year, not #6. You're crazy if you think that.
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Old 06-27-2017, 11:55 AM   #66
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I think more people should respond to ricardow. He's shown in the past that he has an open mind. Come on people just a couple more pages of replies and quoting his post, he's on the verge of seeing the light, I can feel it!
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Old 06-27-2017, 12:20 PM   #67
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The Flames fall back in 2016 was predicted by many. Dallas had a questionable blueline and then still let Demers and Russell go, and did nothing in net. Florida went Loco for a good year and had the whole Tom Rowe fiasco. Winnipeg did what they always do and make zero changes to their roster and were unable to move forward.

Mike Smith is not Cory Schneider, or Carey Price but he is an upgrade on Elliott. If Johnson is brought back the Flames have a capable backup.

They went out and improved the team from last year significantly with the Hamonic pickup. They also have room to continue to improve the back end and upmfront. When they made the Hamilton and Frolik moves they were designed to push the Flames forward but the "find a way Flames" didn't have the same luck in 2016.

Last years team under Gulutzan deserved to be in the playoffs and were a top 10 team after a bad first 6 weeks of the season.
Are you saying that Coyote's Mike Smith is an upgrade on the Blues Elliot that was coming off a 3 year stretch with a better save percentage than Smith has ever gotten? Or the 18 playoff games (at least the first 15) that he carried the Blues to the 3rd round?

last years getting Elliott was a bigger boost on paper than getting Hamonic a year later.... without the danger of giving up a first round pick .

You might want to go back and look at the getting Elliott thread.
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Old 06-27-2017, 12:24 PM   #68
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^ Elliott was playing behind the likes Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Shattenkirk, Parayko, Gunnarsson, Jackman, Edmundson, and Bortuzzo. Pretty damn good.

Smith was playing behind Ekman-Larsson, Chychrun, Schenn, McBain, Michalek, Murphy, Stone, Goligoski, and DeAngelo. Pretty bad, and it showed... they allowed a ton of shots.
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Old 06-27-2017, 12:25 PM   #69
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Are you saying that Coyote's Mike Smith is an upgrade on the Blues Elliot that was coming off a 3 year stretch with a better save percentage than Smith has ever gotten?
This has been covered ad nauseum from different angles from the moment the trade news broke, and the answer is YES.
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Old 06-27-2017, 12:34 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by ricardodw View Post
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.

Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick

Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.

Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.

Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.

The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?
Just glad you and your afraid of your shadow bit won't be seen at the top of the Flame's decision making matrix.

You should watch Finding Nemo on the weekend, it will teach a life lesson that will be invaluable for the rest of your life.

"If you make sure nothing bad happens, you make sure nothing ever happens"

The Flames have one of the top defense cores in the league, they have a nucleus of forwards at the age more likely to improve than slip from last to this year. They've acquired a goaltender that could slip, sure, but then the Flames haven't exactly been riding goaltending lately.

You really this worried or just looking to mix it up?
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:07 PM   #71
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Elliott Friedman on the topic ...

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When the return on the Travis Hamonic trade came down — a first-round draft pick and two seconds — the immediate reaction was, “Good player for a big price.” That was my sense, although I’m of the thought that when your window opens, you take your risks. Calgary, like its beloved neighbour to the north, has a window that is opening.

The team has a chance to be really good. A legitimate contender.
Does he not know the perilous precipice the Flames find themselves on?
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:10 PM   #72
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Elliott Friedman on the topic ...



Does he not know the perilous precipice the Flames find themselves on?
"No soup for you"

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Old 06-27-2017, 02:26 PM   #73
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Are you saying that Coyote's Mike Smith is an upgrade on the Blues Elliot that was coming off a 3 year stretch with a better save percentage than Smith has ever gotten? Or the 18 playoff games (at least the first 15) that he carried the Blues to the 3rd round?

last years getting Elliott was a bigger boost on paper than getting Hamonic a year later.... without the danger of giving up a first round pick .

You might want to go back and look at the getting Elliott thread.
Yes I am saying that because Mike Smith is a proven number 1 and has been for 6 years. Elliott has NEVER been a clear cut number 1. St. Louis kept him around but were always reluctant to give him the reigns. That is why they brought in Miller and decided to keep Allen over Elliott.

The guy took them to the third round (where he was a disaster against the Sharks) and they promptly traded him for a pick even though he had a year left on a team friendly deal.

The Flames needed a goalie last year and got 2. They helped the team go from league worst to roughly middle of the road and went from a bottom feeding team to a playoff team. Goaltending failed them again in the playoffs so they went out and got a guy that is a true number 1 with seasons of 50-60 starts. Instead of resting on their laurels they went out and acquired a piece that gives them one of the top 3 top 4 bluelines in the league. They now have similar d corps to the 2 teams that played to the third round in the west. They do not boast generational centers like Pitt, or Edm so they added another piece to an area of strength to really put themselves in a spot to compete with any and all the teams in the league
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:29 PM   #74
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I guess the question here would be how you would propose the Flames plan for these contingencies. Should they start every season with the expectation that disastrous things will likely happen to keep them out of the playoffs?


What do you mean by "bottom tier"? How have you arrived at that designation for Mike Smith?

FYI, when answering this second question you will need to provide an explanation for this:

You missed Mike Smith's "GRIT Index" it's better than average to.
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:36 PM   #75
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You can't back into being a competitor. You have to stick your neck out and make moves that commit to your objective.

Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. We fans are loath to admit just how significant blind luck is on the fortunes of our teams. A key injury, a string of good puck luck midway through the season to build confidence, a prospect that surprises and settles your lines. So much of this is done without much input or understanding of what's going on.

Do I think the flames will emerge into a contender this season? It tests on a couple critical developments. 1) healthy defense - it's looking great but the depth is not good 2) Bennett and/or Tkachuk emerging - we absolutely need much more depth scoring through three lines 3) the richest fourth line in hockey rebounds - we need the fourth line to truly shoulder some of the hard work instead of being routinely walked all over 4) league average goaltending.

If these things come together then we'll see the Oilers in the playoffs. Game on.
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:45 PM   #76
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if the Flames aren't at least very good this season they might as well blow it up...at some point you have to take a shot
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Old 06-27-2017, 02:58 PM   #77
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I think more people should respond to ricardow. He's shown in the past that he has an open mind. Come on people just a couple more pages of replies and quoting his post, he's on the verge of seeing the light, I can feel it!
I finally figured it out. Ricardodw is actually Joe Btsfblk.
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Old 06-27-2017, 04:55 PM   #78
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Foo signing actually works well into yesterday's article.

There's another prospect added to the mix. So hard to say with these college signings where he ends up pro wise, but his production at Union was pretty solid, he shoots right and plays the right side so he's a good fit that way.

Either way another prospect that didn't require a draft pick to acquire.
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