Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
Along with the Flames going from solid up and comemr to 6th draft pick overall.
Dallas went from 2nd overall in President's cup to 3rd overall pick
Winnipeg went from 99 pts to drafting Laine 2nd overall.
Florida went from 91 to 103 pts to picking #10.
Pretty well happens every year to one or 2 teams coming off a break through season like the Flames just did.
The Flames seem to be going to war with a bottom tier starter goalie slated to start 50 games.... How can that go horribly wrong?
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Funny that you mentioned the teams that you did: Dallas, Winnipeg, and Florida. However, there's one unifying factor between all of those teams which led them to a massive letdown after their breakthrough seasons: positional weakness.
First, you mentioned Dallas. The year that they finished 2nd overall, their forwards all played terrifically, with Benn, Spezza, Seguin, and Sharp all eclipsing 50 points. Heck, Hemsky and Eakin came close to 40. Their defense was okay, but not very defensively-oriented, with Oduya and Goligoski carrying much of the load in the d-zone. Lehtonen and Niemi were OKAY, but not earth-shattering.
So what changed? The next season, their guys stopped scoring. Benn went from 89 to 69 points. Spezza, from 63 to 50. Sharp, from 55 to
18. Eakin, from 35 to
12. Seguin was the only guy who really remained constant, going from 73 to 72 points (albeit in ten more games). Their big guns stopped working, and they lost their best defensive defensemen in Oduya and Goligoski to Chicago and Arizona. Lehtonen and Niemi went from OKAY to terrible, with Niemi posting a Hiller-esque 3.30 GAA and an .892 SV%. The forwards stopped scoring, and with it, their positional weaknesses at defense were exposed, leading to the goaltending faltering and the team going downhill.
Next, you mentioned Winnipeg. The year that the Jets made the playoffs, it was largely on the back of Ondrej Pavelec, who stunned with a career-best .920 SV%. It was by far the best mark of his NHL career, and was very impressive at the time. His backup, Michael Hutchinson, also played very well, putting up a .914 in 38 games. Andrew Ladd had the best season of his career, scoring 62 points, and he was surrounded by a crop of forwards who also put up then-career-best totals (or near them), including Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler, Michael Frolik, Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault, Drew Stafford, Adam Lowry, and rentals Lee Stempniak and Jiri Tlusty. The defense was solid, if unspectacular, boasting a proven #1 in Dustin Byfuglien and surrounding him with Jacob Trouba, Toby Enstrom, Tyler Myers, and a rotating cast of bottom-pairing guys.
What changed in the MTS Centre the next year? Well, for one, they lost some of their scoring. Frolik signed in Calgary, Stempniak and Tlusty bolted to New Jersey, and Ladd was traded at the next year's deadline to Chicago after an underwhelming year. Wheeler and Scheifele did both put up bigger numbers in 2015-16 and Nik Ehlers made an impressive debut, but most everyone else regressed. Perreault saw his goal total halve from 18 to 9. Little got hurt, and while he had a higher points/game, he wasn't around to score as many. Enstrom played himself out of the top-4 for long stretches, having his spot replaced with Paul Postma for much of the year. But what really sunk the Jets was their goaltending. Pavelec tanked, recording a .904 SV%. Hutchinson was less 'worse', but he too disappointed, posting a .907. Connor Hellebuyck was good in his first 26 games, putting up a .918, but the next year, he too posted a .907.
So, finally, we move on to Florida. Their big year, 2015-16, was made possible by... wait for it... strong depth and overachievement at all positions. Up front, Jaromir Jagr led the way with 66 points, with Jussi Jokinen, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sasha Barkov, Vincent Trochek, and Reilly Smith all posting at least 50. Past that, Nick Bjugstad, Brandon Pirri, and deadline acquisitions Jiri Hudler and Teddy Purcell all provided terrific depth up front, creating a deadly top-9. The Panthers also boasted a great defensive corps, led by young star Aaron Ekblad. Veteran Brian Campbell solidified the top pair, while Alex Petrovic and Dmitry Kulikov rounded out the top-4. Former top-3 pick Erik Gudbranson was allowed to play on the bottom pairing, where he belongs, with Willie Mitchell, and they both played well. In net, Roberto Luongo had a vintage season, going 35-19-6 with a .922 SV%, and Al Montoya was a terrific backup, putting up a .919 of his own.
What changed in Sunrise last year? For one, they lost a lot of scoring. Barkov, Huberdeau, and Bjugstad were out for much of the season, Smith fell from 50 to 37 points, Jagr dipped by 20 points, and Jokinen fell by 32. While Jonathan Marchessault managed to score 30 goals and 51 points, everyone suspected that to be unsustainable in Florida, and that's true already, because he'll be in Vegas next year, as will Reilly Smith for some reason. That leads into another huge point as to why Florida failed: managerial incompetence. For some reason, Florida finishing with 103 points was ample reason to "promote" Dale Tallon and replace him with Tom Rowe, a power-tripping buffoon who echoes of Mike Milbury. Rowe ended up firing Jack Adams nominee Gerard Gallant in a fit of pique, and he'll be joining Marchessault and Smith in Vegas next year.
So, we see that in these three cases, guys either stopped scoring, the goaltending stopped playing well, and management began meddling with something that was already working. In the Flames' case, the first two already sort of happened last year. Johnny Gaudreau went from 78 points to 61, Troy Brouwer fell from 39 points to 25, Sam Bennett went from 38 points to 26... and they still made the playoffs. Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson were OKAY, but not terrific. They both barely posted .910s after rough starts to the year. But we know that management isn't awful like in Florida, and the Flames, as mentioned, MADE THE PLAYOFFS last year even when a lot of things went wrong.
We've seen a situation before here where
everything went right for the Flames to make the playoffs, and
everything went wrong the next year and they missed. In 2014-15, Jiri Hudler scored 31 goals and 76 points, Dennis Wideman had 15 goals and 56 points, Lance Bouma had 16 goals and 34 points, David Jones had 15 goals and 30 points, and Jonas Hiller had 26 wins and a .918 SV%. The next season, Hudler scored 35 points with the Flames before being shipped off to Florida, Wideman scored 13 fewer goals and 37 fewer points during a nightmare season, Bouma stopped scoring and went down to 2 goals and 7 points, Jones scored as many points (9 goals + 6 assists) as he'd had goals the previous year before being shipped off to Minnesota, and Hiller fell to an abhorrent .879 SV%. We know what it's like to have an amazingly lucky year, and then see that come back to bite us.
Now,
Mike Smith. You mentioned him as a bottom-tier starter who is expected to play 50 games. For your information, Smith
did play 50 games last year, and he played 55 very good games, putting up a 19-26-9 record and a .914 SV% on one of the NHL's very worst defensive teams. Don't call Dave Tippett a good defensive coach. That might have been true in 2011 when he had Ekman-Larsson and Ed Jovanovski and guys like that... Smith was hung out to dry last year and he won't be this year. Arizona had one REALLY good defenseman last year, and then had a bunch of 4/5 guys like Goligoski, Luke Schenn, and Michael Stone. The Flames have four REALLY good defensemen, and might sign a fifth on July 1st. Smith will love it playing behind Hamilton, Giordano, Brodie, and Hamonic. Why did I list Hamilton first? Because he's the best ####ing defenseman ever, ricardo, and I need you to know that.
The Flames are going to make the playoffs next year, and they're going to make it easily. With a hot start, Gaudreau, Monahan, and Backlund should all be firing at full-speed. Frolik, Tkachuk, and Bennett should all post good numbers, and I expect Brouwer to improve as he accustoms himself to the team. If Versteeg and Chiasson are back, even better.
The Islanders will be picking in the 20s next year, not #6. You're crazy if you think that.