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Old 10-17-2014, 11:45 AM   #81
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So... The Alberta Party (via Stephen Carter's BBold Communications) released a "poll" today showing a dead heat in Calgary Elbow.

http://www.greg-clark.ca/threewayrace

Figured it was worth leaving to start some discussion.
Typical Carter trick..........
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Old 10-17-2014, 12:31 PM   #82
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It's a complete joke. First of all its only a dead heat if you look at the weighted results. Otherwise Clark is barely into double digits. Secondly it's Carter's company that conducted the poll, so you have to take it with a grain of salt.

I just know that I did some door knocking in a poll that seems like perfect Alberta Party territory, and got one mention on the door step for them. I saw a few signs for them, but the most was the Wildrose, by far. I know there are issues with that 'evidence' as well, but I have a hard time seeing the PC's in first in the riding, which is another reason I don't believe that poll. If I had to guess it's close between the PC's and Wildrose. After that is probably the Liberals and Alberta Party splitting the vote and being pretty much a distant third.
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Old 10-17-2014, 03:06 PM   #83
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Weighted does seem like a bit of a shenanigan, unless it's re-weighted for voting likelihood (i.e. young people respond to polls less, but also vote less, though perhaps not equally).

However, Clark is ahead of Wright in both formats, so at the very least it should help to consolidate the progressive vote around him, even if the Wildrose may still argue based on unweighted that they are the strategic choice for anyone-but-Dirks voters.
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Old 10-17-2014, 03:31 PM   #84
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Weighted does seem like a bit of a shenanigan, unless it's re-weighted for voting likelihood (i.e. young people respond to polls less, but also vote less, though perhaps not equally).

However, Clark is ahead of Wright in both formats, so at the very least it should help to consolidate the progressive vote around him, even if the Wildrose may still argue based on unweighted that they are the strategic choice for anyone-but-Dirks voters.
I'll believe it when I see it. I still think that this is the end of the Alberta Party. I do feel bad for Greg Clark because he seems like a good guy who has his heart in the right place.

Of course there is a week to go and I still expect some controversy and probably a huge pandering announcement to come from the Alberta Party. Couple that kind of thing with the fact that my prognostications are generally horrible and you can basically disregard my thoughts! (Although I did nail this poll earlier in the thread!)
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Old 10-17-2014, 03:38 PM   #85
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I expect to see a "Greg Clark is leading Elbow" poll anyday now though. I'm only a little surprised to have not seen it already. It will either be that, or Clark is second and everyone in Elbow should vote for him because he is the only one who can keep Dirks out. Its basically the tried and true method for Carter.
I am sorry to quote myself, because it's in bad taste. But when I am actually right for a change I can't help it!
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Old 10-17-2014, 04:00 PM   #86
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Everything about this poll screams spin. There were only 395 responses, and with fully a third coming back as undecided, not voting or won't say, that means only about 260 valid responses. There just aren't enough responses there to trust a weighted average. Especially if the random sample underrepresents a key voting demographic - which the leans table indicates is the case. Carter tries to pass Clark off as a solid second place (20.3%, -3.2 points), but when they remove the weighting, he plummets to a distant third (11.8%, -9.6). That big of a swing indicates the sampling is off somewhere.

Lies, damned lies and Stephen Carter's polling methods.
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Old 10-17-2014, 04:03 PM   #87
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The self fulfilling prophesy poll. Making people think you're in it, helps one actually get in it (that's the theory anyway). I expect Dirks will probably win.

As I've said before, time for Ab Party and Ab liberal party, time to put ego and pettiness aside and form as one.
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Old 10-17-2014, 04:13 PM   #88
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The self fulfilling prophesy poll. Making people think you're in it, helps one actually get in it (that's the theory anyway). I expect Dirks will probably win.

As I've said before, time for Ab Party and Ab liberal party, time to put ego and pettiness aside and form as one.
I couldn't agree more. The problem is that the Alberta Party as a whole is so unwelcoming, if that makes sense. Policies aside, the PCs and Wildrose are always happy to welcome you into the fold, invite you to events or whatever. For some reason, and I don't know why, the Alberta Party seems to have an attitude of smugness despite never having actually won anything. It's really off putting. I was signed up and heading to their event today, but just watching some of the comments on Twitter has me likely skipping it.
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Old 10-17-2014, 04:28 PM   #89
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I couldn't agree more. The problem is that the Alberta Party as a whole is so unwelcoming, if that makes sense. Policies aside, the PCs and Wildrose are always happy to welcome you into the fold, invite you to events or whatever. For some reason, and I don't know why, the Alberta Party seems to have an attitude of smugness despite never having actually won anything. It's really off putting. I was signed up and heading to their event today, but just watching some of the comments on Twitter has me likely skipping it.
Like I said, those characteristics or impressions (no matter how accurate) need to be put aside and put in the context of the bigger picture. Every party and its supporters have flaws. For example, virtually all Alberta Liberals I know are hopelessly stubborn and seem to haven gotten numb to the feeling of losing (like the warmth before dying of hypothermia). Just no real will there. Maybe smug-unwelcoming and stubborn-loser can come together to form something positive. I don't hold out much hope, which is why I (a hyper engaged citizen - and many others like me) sit on the sidelines. I think it would take the right broker to come in and smash some heads together.
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Old 10-19-2014, 01:58 AM   #90
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My apologies as I did not see this thread earlier. Who has the best shot of defeating Prentice? The Wildrose? Argh... not sure if I'm going there with my vote. Looks like I'm going with either Alberta party or Liberals but I'm not sure what the differences are between the two parties.
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Old 10-19-2014, 07:33 AM   #91
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My apologies as I did not see this thread earlier. Who has the best shot of defeating Prentice? The Wildrose? Argh... not sure if I'm going there with my vote. Looks like I'm going with either Alberta party or Liberals but I'm not sure what the differences are between the two parties.
When you get right down to it, the name. The policies are really close if not identical. The Alberta Party basically thinks that the Liberal brand is dead in Alberta, except for federally where a lot of them seem to love Trudeau and wholly support him.
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Old 10-19-2014, 08:17 AM   #92
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Taking out Prentice in Calgary Foothills? I would think it would be the Wildrose, but that's probably a long shot (regardless of his pumpkin attendance at the most recent forum). As much as the PCs have lost a lot of their lustre, Prentice still has strong popularity numbers as an individual.
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Old 10-19-2014, 08:49 AM   #93
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Clark held a nice little bbq last night at his HQ. It was pretty well attended.
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Old 10-20-2014, 11:51 AM   #94
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Danielle Smith this morning when asked about the Alberta Party poll: "Our poll shows us at 100%!"

That's hilarious!
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Old 10-20-2014, 12:37 PM   #95
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The self fulfilling prophesy poll. Making people think you're in it, helps one actually get in it (that's the theory anyway). I expect Dirks will probably win.

As I've said before, time for Ab Party and Ab liberal party, time to put ego and pettiness aside and form as one.
You probably have it right. The Alberta party faces a recognition problem where those who know treat them as irrelevant and those who don't follow politics haven't heard of them. The campaign looks to create an artificial bandwagon effect to take advantage of the empty space on the left in the provincial domain. From my vantage point it looks so fake and artificial.

The whole robocall story isn't sitting well with me either. It almost seems like it was a ploy by the Alberta Party to try to implicate the PCs (Prentice's association with the Federal PCs and their robocall tactics) while at the same time trying to legitimize their campaign by implying that their campaign is actually worthy of sabotage. Put this piece together with the misleading self-conducted poll and it looks like a self-fulfilling prophesy attempt.
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Old 10-20-2014, 01:31 PM   #96
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Good point, actually. If the PC's is going to try to sabotage anyone, it would be Wildrose (or vice versa). It is pretty hard to imagine that a party seen as likely to fight the NDP for fourth place would have generated anything approaching fear in the minds of the established parties.
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Old 10-20-2014, 01:42 PM   #97
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Good point, actually. If the PC's is going to try to sabotage anyone, it would be Wildrose (or vice versa). It is pretty hard to imagine that a party seen as likely to fight the NDP for fourth place would have generated anything approaching fear in the minds of the established parties.
I have seen tweets from a number of people from a bunch of parties and they all seem to say the same thing. On the doorsteps the Alberta Party barely get mentioned. Maybe 1-2 people a night say that's who they're supporting. You don't win elections with mentions in that range.

Who knows, maybe the poll is accurate and maybe they have a legit shot. I tend to think that they are fighting with the Liberals and NDP though and maybe they "win" amongst those three, but are 10 points away from the Wildrose and PC's.
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Old 10-20-2014, 01:47 PM   #98
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Agreed. Clark's promotional PR facebook post about the poll ended up on my timeline for some reason, so I read the comments. All I saw was a giant circle jerk of soon to be very disappointed people. What was notable to me was how there was only one single comment from someone not completely committed to the cause. Given this anecdotal evidence, my subjective opinion is that nobody in the real world really cares. Which is why Stephen Carter had to pull a stunt like a "weighted" poll to try and fabricate support.
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Old 10-21-2014, 08:35 AM   #99
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My view (without any data to back it up) is that neither the Alberta Party nor the Liberals have much of a hope in Calgary Elbow, which is historically a Conservative riding with a few exceptions.

The real issue is which one shows a stronger finish. The Liberals do have a major brand problem in this province, where they struggle to get votes in spite of being ideologically more or less ideologically aligned with the median urban Alberta voter. (There are other issues besides brand, but it's a big one)

If Clark finishes far ahead of Susan Wright, that is a very bad sign for the Liberals, not just in Elbow but across the city, including in tidings like Buffalo and Currie where the Liberals have a much better shot of winning.
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Old 10-24-2014, 07:39 PM   #100
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http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/119...ed-is-greater/

Re: Dirks

Ok? Wrong? Unethical? Business as usual?

discuss
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