Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[SuperMatt18]

At the end of season press conference today there was mention made of the Dallas model. So then I became a bit curious as to what the true "Dallas Model" was, and how the Stars built their roster.

Draft:
Benn (2007 129), Hintz (2015 49), Roberston (2017 39), Faksa (2012 13), Johnston (2023 23), Stankoven (2023 47), Heiskanen (2017 3), Lindell (2012 74), Harley (2019 18), Oettinger (2017 26)

Trade:
Seguin, Dadonov, Tanev, Lundkvist, Wedgewood

Signed:
Marchment, Pavelski, Duchene, Smith, Suter, Hakanpaa,

When looking at that roster some potential comparables do start to stand out a bit:

Benn = Backlund
Seguin = Huberdeau
Pavelski = Kadri
Lundell = Andersson
Oettinger = Wolf

But I think the issue is the hardest pieces to acquire aren't in the Flames organization yet. Let's take a look at the Flames roster if we look towards the 2025-2016 season and who is under contract / RFA.

Huberdeau - ??? - ???
Zary - Kadri - Pospisil
Coleman - Backlund - Coronato
Pelletier - ??? - ???

Honzek, Klapka, Lipinski, Stromgren, Suniev as potential NHLers.

???? - Andersson
Miromanov - Weegar
Kylington - Brzustewicz

Pachal, Poirier, Morin, Grushnikov, Kuznetsov as potential NHLers.

Wolf
???

When I look at the depth chart and then look at the "Dallas Model" what I think stands out is:

I don't see a young dman in the organization that resembles Heiskanen. It's possible that Brzustewicz could become a Harley type and they do have Weegar, Andersson, and Kylington which probably fill more the Lindell, Suter type roles for this team longer term. So they have the depth but are lacking the top end piece that Heiskanen represents.

Forwards are the biggest hole because I'm not sure I see a Hintz, Robertson or a Johnston in the organization. We lack the top end talent that is going to be required to have a quick retool. Centers are a desperate need and I see them trying to trade for a young center this offseason (I wonder about Kotkaniemi if Carolina wants to clear cap). The Zary, Pospisil, Pelletier, Coronato, Honzek group could provide strong NHL depth but lacks top line talent.

At goalie Wolf remains a top 3 prospect at the position, but think they likely will use a top 90 pick on another young goalie either this year or next year.

Of course you will have all the picks and assets the organization has yet to make to add to this group. Plus potential assets for Markstrom, Mangiapane, Kuzmenko, Sharanovich (if they don't re-sign him), Andersson (if they decide to move him), etc. So they have the opportunity to fill those gaps. The key with any rebuild, retool, or whatever you want to call it is that you have to draft well, and you have to draft well in more than just the first round.

But remember even for Dallas their big draft where they got Heiskanen, Oettinger, and Robertson was in 2017, which is already 7 seasons ago.

So even if they have an amazing draft this year...it's not a 2 season turnaround, it's still probably a 4-5+ season turn around. There is no such thing as a quick fix in the NHL IMO.

[Goriders]

When I look at your summary I notice there’s one drafted player in the top ten of any of the draft years. In fact only two first rounders.

That might blow apart the tank strategy. Or at least I sure hope it does. I personally don’t want to watch the san jose sharks for 82 games next year.

If markstrom and Mangiapane are moved in the summer the flames are going to have $15 to $20 million sitting around along with a ton of draft picks. If you’re smart you could rebuild the team pretty quickly.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Goriders

When I look at your summary I notice there’s one drafted player in the top ten of any of the draft years. In fact only two first rounders.

That might blow apart the tank strategy. Or at least I sure hope it does. I personally don’t want to watch the san jose sharks for 82 games next year.

If markstrom and Mangiapane are moved in the summer the flames are going to have $15 to $20 million sitting around along with a ton of draft picks. If you’re smart you could rebuild the team pretty quickly.

Think it's 4 1st rounders that are high impact.

Heiskanen (4th OV)
Harley (18)
Johnston (23)
Oettinger (26)

And then 3 second rounders that look to be high impact

Robertson (39)
Hintz (49)
Stankoven (47)

Moral of the story is you need to draft well in the top 50 of drafts when you have those picks, and you need to try to accumulate more of those top 50 picks.

Flames recent top 50 picks:

Honzek (16)
Morin (48)
Coronato (13)
Stromgren (45)
Zary (24)
Kuznetsov (50)
Pelletier (26)

And they added Grushnikov (48) in the trade from Dallas.

I agree though and have long stated that the people that focus on "Needing top 5 picks to win a cup" are focusing on the wrong thing. You need to have some high picks, but you don't need to tear it down to the studs. You need to draft well at all positions of the draft and that is how you succeed.

[Sylvanfan]

Dallas was in the playoffs in 18-19, and it was a 7 game loss to St.Louis in round 2 OT that knocked them out. So after that 2017 draft they didn't suck for long. Next season they were top 4 Conference side in the bubble and made the Stanley Cup Final. Had a horrific start to the Covid year in a really hard Division and missed the playoffs and have progressively improved the last three seasons.

This after a really good 15-16 season where they lost round 2 in 7 games to the Blues...remember the Kris Russell condition that just fell short? Even in 2016-17...they won the lottery from about where the Flames finished to move up. Hope is not a plan...but try and emulate them, and maybe luck ends up on your side.

It's a low tax area that can attract players and a large city where the players don't get bothered too much away from the rink. So that's an edge they have. But Hintz in round 2 of 16, that epic top 3 in 2017 plus adding Pavelski as a UFA did get them moving the right way

[Reggie Dunlop]

I can understand why General Managers are reticent to use the term "rebuild." Admitting that is implying that you're building for the next guy, and that you're not going to be finishing the job.

[FlamesAddiction]

My take away from what Conroy said wasn't necessarily about replicating their line-up, but just not needing to fully bottom out for top draft picks. Just make sure you have a decent number of good picks, and hit on them.

Sounds great in theory, but if it was that easy, every team would do it.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Dallas was in the playoffs in 18-19, and it was a 7 game loss to St.Louis in round 2 OT that knocked them out. So after that 2017 draft they didn't suck for long. Next season they were top 4 Conference side in the bubble and made the Stanley Cup Final. Had a horrific start to the Covid year in a really hard Division and missed the playoffs and have progressively improved the last three seasons.

It's a low tax area that can attract players and a large city where the players don't get bothered too much away from the rink. So that's an edge they have. But Hintz in round 2 of 16, that epic top 3 in 2017 plus adding Pavelski as a UFA did get them moving the right way

Thing is those players in the 2017 draft (outside of Heiskanen) didn't really start helping them until more recently and it was a different core that made it to the finals in 2020.

For the Flames to truly have a quicker turnaround they would have needed to have an amazing draft in 2020 or 2021 that would be starting to help them now. And if Tkachuk/Gaudreau didn't leave.

The strong drafts in 2017, and 2021 is what has allowed them to bridge from the old core that was strong in 18/19 and in the 2020 bubble playoff, to the new core that is leading them this season.

[traptor]

It's fine to hope for the dallas model but I wouldn't bank on the same results and our retool just being two years.

Alot went right for them in that 2017 draft.

They were 6th in their division two years in a row. 2017 and 2018.

2017 - 7 draft picks (2 firsts) - they get 3rd oa and draft a #1D, they draft a #1 goalie and a top pairing winger within 5 years.

2018 - 8 draft picks - they end up with 13th oa and end up with a middle 6 center so far. Noone else looks like an NHLer yet.

Just shows the duality of it. They were very fortunate.


We'll have alot of prospects in the system after this year. Just need to hit a home run on one or two and then have wolf oan out.

[chedder]

Robertson is a top 5 draft pick in a redraft and has the 5th most points from the 2017 draft. He's 24 and over a point per game.

We have nobody that even remotely resembles him.

Benn has 907 points in 1112 games and plays with a snarl. Again, nobody like him.

And, most importantly, hopefully Wolff turns into Oettinger (top 10 on the league) but that is yet to be determined.

We desperately need a young superstar. Preferably one at least one at forward and one at defence.

[boogerz]

The Flames had the "Dallas model" already with Tkachuk, Fox, Gaudreau, Andersson, Monahan, and company.

The drafting philosophy seemed to change to prioritize size over everything else when Darryl came back a couple years ago.

The scouting team is still good and Button is still the head amateur scout. As long as the Flames start re-prioritizing skill and hockey sense over size again, they should be able rebuild without a top three pick.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Think it's 4 1st rounders that are high impact.

Heiskanen (4th OV)
Harley (18)
Johnston (23)
Oettinger (26)

And then 3 second rounders that look to be high impact

Robertson (39)
Hintz (49)
Stankoven (47)

Moral of the story is you need to draft well in the top 50 of drafts when you have those picks, and you need to try to accumulate more of those top 50 picks.

Flames recent top 50 picks:

Honzek (16)
Morin (48)
Coronato (13)
Stromgren (45)
Zary (24)
Kuznetsov (50)
Pelletier (26)

And they added Grushnikov (48) in the trade from Dallas.

I agree though and have long stated that the people that focus on "Needing top 5 picks to win a cup" are focusing on the wrong thing. You need to have some high picks, but you don't need to tear it down to the studs. You need to draft well at all positions of the draft and that is how you succeed.

Sorry I missed two guys from the first round. You are correct the first two rounds are important. But my point is you don’t have to strive to be garbage to build a good team.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by chedder

Robertson is a top 5 draft pick in a redraft and has the 5th most points from the 2017 draft. He's 24 and over a point per game.

We have nobody that even remotely resembles him.

Benn has 907 points in 1112 games and plays with a snarl. Again, nobody like him.

And, most importantly, hopefully Wolff turns into Oettinger (top 10 on the league) but that is yet to be determined.

We desperately need a young superstar. Preferably one at least one at forward and one at defence.

Or buy one or two with the $20 million you have lying around.

[stemit14]

I mentioned the Dallas model in a previous thread and so think it’s mostly about getting multiple impact players in a single draft. To me, that’s what really sets them apart.

Most rebuilds take a long time because teams average drafting one (if they are lucky) impact player per year and that player usually comes from their own draft pick which is usually pretty high (in the top 10). I know rebuilding teams will often get other first and second round picks in trades but the mode are almost always late round picks (outside the top 20 of a draft)… those players either rarely ever become impact players in the NHL or they take a long time to ever reach that level. If a team is averaging one core/impact BHL player per year through the draft, it takes 5-6 years at least to develop your full core… so it can take that long before you are ready to be competitive.

What’s unique with Dallas is that they got 3 impact/core players in a single draft and they complemented them with veteran players. Those two combinations meant they didn’t need to develop a new core over the span of 5/6 years… instead it was done in 2-3 years.

It’s easy to say “draft well and develop well” but if it was that easy, everyone would do it. Dallas is a very good drafting team but they also got very lucky with their picks in 2017. Hard to try and replicate getting top players with fast development curves using later draft picks. That would be like saying the flames are going to plan their rebuild today around getting one of the top 5 NHL defencemen with their 2024 first round pick, one of the top 10 NHL goal scorers with Vancouver’s pick and one of the top 3 goaltenders in the NHL with their second round pick. While that would be incredible, it’s hard to plan on that happening.

In my opinion, the closest way to follow the Dallas model would be to get multiple high (top 10) picks in a single draft. Again, easier said than done but if that can be accomplished, it gives your team a huge head start on development of a new young core.

Imagine somehow being able to turn Andersson + Markstrom + Vancouver’s 2024 first round pick + Calgary’s 2024 2nd round pick + Dallas’s 2024 2nd round pick into two picks in the top 10 of the draft. Not sure if that could be done but that would give Calgary 3 picks in the top 10 and a head start on rebuilding their core. Lindstrom-Iginla-Yakemchuk… Catton-Buium-Helenius… there all all kinds of interesting combinations of players you could take that gives your team the best chance to rebuild as a fast as possible. Combine those 3 players with what is likely a top 5 pick next year and the “bottoming out” phase hopefully ends up being pretty short.

[keenan87]

The Backlund and Benn comparison is not even close. This team needs to do a lot more things before we have enough players to start comparing with the Dallas roster.

First, go get Robertson and Heiskanen. Easy to compare the depth guys.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

For the Flames to truly have a quicker turnaround they would have needed to have an amazing draft in 2020 or 2021 that would be starting to help them now. And if Tkachuk/Gaudreau didn't leave.

I think the strong draft has to this one, and that a guy like Suniev or Morin will need to emerge as being better than expected.

I don't think there's a Bishop or Pavelski impact shorter term player to get this year, but maybe next year.

Are Huberdeau and Kadri that different from Benn and Seguin? Huby was 2nd in league scoring two terrible years, but might be able to get back to 70 points. Kadri playing like this season is perfectly fine.

I'm just saying it might be sooner if they have 2 good drafts in the next two years. It's a major if for sure. But Conroy did a good job of clearing the deck and adding draft capital that teams like San Jose, Chicago, and Anaheim really didn't do before falling off the cliff.

[Zary's-Mustache]

I think their model is drafting amazing. Iirc they have the same scout or scouts who were successful in Detroit all those years.

[keenan87]

The Flames next superstar might already be on the roster.. we just don't know it yet.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by chedder

Robertson is a top 5 draft pick in a redraft and has the 5th most points from the 2017 draft. He's 24 and over a point per game.

We have nobody that even remotely resembles him.

Benn has 907 points in 1112 games and plays with a snarl. Again, nobody like him.

And, most importantly, hopefully Wolff turns into Oettinger (top 10 on the league) but that is yet to be determined.

We desperately need a young superstar. Preferably one at least one at forward and one at defence.

Coronato just had a better D+3 year than Robertson had, scoring at a much higher rate in the AHL and spending more time at the same age in the NHL. They also rank similarly in prospect lists when comparing them at the same age. Chances are he won’t be as good, but Calgary certainly does have someone that resembles Robertson in the system and they’ve got a couple of other prospects that could become superstars. This is the fun stuff of rebuilds. Guys are going to step up and let’s hope in a few years guys are talking about The Calgary Model.

[Rhett44]

Dallas has absolutely killed it with their drafting. It would be pretty high expectations for us to draft anywhere near that level.

I also don't entirely see the comparison with Huberdeau and their older players. Huberdeau has never performed in the playoffs, and guys like Pavelski and Seguin tend to step up when it matters.

I also think expecting Wolf to turn into Oettenger is very optimistic. We don't know what Wolf is yet. He could become a great starter one day, or a career backup. We just don't know.

Overall, I think the Dallas model is very hard to replicate. Mainly because of how well they have drafted. You rarely see a team hit on that many players outside the top 5. And they still got Heiskanen with pick 3.

[Caged Great]

Realistically the Flames would probably have been at Columbus’ level this season if Tanev and Hanifin weren’t here. They basically had the best possible season this group could have and finished with the 9th worst record in the nhl. There is no way this team is going to be even as good as they were this year.

Thankfully they have added a bunch of good picks. They just need to keep the rotation going. Honestly I would not keep any close to expiring vet if they can yield anything. Whether those trades happen at the draft or next deadline. Always be trading, signing, flipping.