Better rebuild situation 2013 or 2024?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I was thinking last night if a GM looked at both situations which would be more appealing. I wonder if that Huberdeau contract is such a hindrance or would having bare cupboards be worse?

I think now is the better situation. I am guessing when the CBA is up the carrot that the owners throw out to get some concessions is a one time compliance buyout window for a contract or two just like they did during the last round of negotiations. If that happens again it could be perfect timing for the Flames

23/24 - sell all UFA’s for prospects and picks

24 off-season pick up bad contracts for more picks and prospects. See if you can sign Pospisil, Ruzicka, Pelletier and wolf to as much term as possible because overpaying for the first 3 years of a 6 year deal does not really matter

24/25 - trade older players and upcoming UFAs for picks and prospects

25 off-season - sign Coronato for as much term as possible. Sign Zary for as much term as possible. Probably pick up more bad contracts for more picks.

25/26 - see if you can move Backlund and Coleman.

26 off-season - get gifted two compliance buyouts and buyout Huberdeau and Kadri. Keep prioritizing signing your players to term but have the cap space to actually add to the team for the first time in 3 years and potentially go into the new building with a team that can possibly compete.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CFO

Now is better. Flames would need to sign garbage to get to a floor cap.

Every player on this team is tradable other then Huberdeau right now.

Example - flames eat 50% of Coleman - and a team will pounce on that.

I think the Flames will retain on rentals but I am not convinced they will do the same for a guy with several years of term left. This year they can retain on 3 of Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Zadorov and then next year consider doing the same for Mangiapane and other pending UFA’s they may have on the roster.

[TheIronMaiden]

I know it can't be done, but the summer of 2022 was the best time for a rebuild.
It was, as natural of a spot as a team could find.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Sorry, I don’t follow.

How are they better this time around, saddled with boat anchor contracts (consuming cap space) and no get out of jail card?

The only contract that matters is Huberdeau. Weegar is moveable and Kadri will be done by the time cap space matters.

[Geeoff]

From my perspective, the last result had pretty mediocre/mixed results, which means we have a 50/50 of being better. Not bad odds

[Jiri Hrdina]

better opportunity if they properly extract value from the current core.

[GullFoss]

Prospects in the cupboard
2023: Pelletier, Zary, Wolf, Coronato, Honzek, pospisil,
2013: Johnny, Irving, Horak, brodie, baertchi,


Players through the rebuild
2023: Andersson, Kylington, dube, ruzicka
2013: Gio, stajan, backlund


Trade bait
2023: Lindholm, tanev, Hanifin, Zadorov, coleman, vladar, markstrom, mangiapane
2013: Jaybo, Iggy, Regehr, tanguay, Cammy, Wideman, hudler, glencross,

Boat anchors
2023: Huby
2013:

[Jiri Hrdina]

Not sure you can list Kylington anywhere at this stage, including as he is a UFA, if he chooses to continue his career at all.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

Prospects in the cupboard
2023: Pelletier, Zary, Wolf, Coronato, Honzek, pospisil,
2013: Johnny, Irving, Horak, brodie, baertchi,


Players through the rebuild
2023: Andersson, Kylington, dube, ruzicka
2013: Gio, stajan, backlund


Trade bait
2023: Lindholm, tanev, Hanifin, Zadorov, coleman, vladar, markstrom, mangiapane
2013: Jaybo, Iggy, Regehr, tanguay, Cammy, Wideman, hudler, glencross,

Boat anchors
2023: Huby
2013:

Regehr was gone in 2012

[Samonadreau]

It really all depends where this seasons pick lands, if its a top 3 then probably this 'rebuild'. if it's outside let's say the top 7, then 2013.

[Enoch Root]

I think it's better now for a two reasons: a deeper and more balanced prospect pool at the outset, and more valuable assets to trade out.

Pelletier - Zary - Coronato
Suniev - Honzek - Pospisil

Morin, Poirier, Solovyov

Wolf

Obviously, not all prospects pan out, and there are no guaranteed studs in that group, though a couple might be. But there is a fair bit to build around, there.

Then you've got Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Zadorov, and Vladdar as tradable assets this year, and Backlund, Mangiapane and Markstrom next year. You also have Dube and Coleman as guys you could potentially move.

In the middle group, you have some quality guys that still have long runways, in Andersson, Weegar, Sharangovich, and Dube and Mangiapane (if tehy aren't traded)

[Vinny01]

Mods is there any chance we can get a poll?

[Calgary4LIfe]

The situation at this point in time vs 2012-13 season is worse, IMO, but I also think that it has the potential to be much better.


There were actually some really good prospects in the system that year. Ferland was in the system and he was a wrecking ball in 2015, and one of the reasons why Calgary made it out of the 2nd round. It is too bad his career was shortened, but I still think that was an underrated prospect. Gaudreau - future superstar. Then you had a lot of players that looked good, but fizzled-out. Jankowski was highly debated then, and when he finally arrived, he was good. Two straight 17 goal seasons for him. Then he fizzled-out. Horak looked great. Granlund too (what a snipe of a shot he had). Ramage was team captain of the US junior team. Flames had a couple of legitimate shots at goalies (nowhere near as highly rated as Wolf, but legitimate goalie prospects). The prospect pool was already turning around nicely then. Baertschi was also a highly rated prospect that saw his stock dramatically rise for a year or two. The cupboards were bare, but they didn't seem bare.



Also already on the team was the combination of Giordano-Brodie (became the #1 top pairing in the league for a few seasons) who absolutely tilted the ice when they were out. Wideman was iffy - but he was amazing that season Giordano was hurt - 56 points that year and playing almost 30 minutes a night as the league leader.



What is crazy to me is all the talent that was just.. lost for nothing.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...000432013.html


Why did Bouwmeester get traded that year? He would have had a monster year under Hartley. He looked so much more effective under Hartley, and I thought he would have increased his value, but he was traded with a year left on his deal. Why wasn't Cammalleri then? Or really anyone else? Tanguay and Sarich went in that terrible trade for O'Brien and Jones. Regehr the year before was given away for peanuts in that attempt to sign Richards. Feaster showed incompetence at asset management with not getting value in his trades, and he massively under estimated the market of cap space that year with the compliance buyouts happening after the season.


However, the 2013 draft was a special draft. Don't let Treliving's collection of 1st round picks from that year fool you - that draft was really good both at the high-end, and throughout. That was a great draft to load-up on picks. AFAIK, that draft was higher rated than this upcoming draft, so that does merit the comparison. It is impossible to know exactly what draft will indeed be better without the benefit of hindsight, but that 2013 draft was highly anticipated. This upcoming draft is 'good', but not 'great'.



After careful consideration, I actually think that the Flames will be in better shape this time around. Why?


1) Hopefully they learned their lesson. Having Conroy here at the very start of that draft, seeing the mistakes that were made, as well as the right decisions - you have to figure that he has learned those lessons.


2) Flames were impatient. Whether that was Treliving, or the owners, I would hope that the organization doesn't lose patience this time around. I don't think that first round picks should ever be moved except for extraordinary trades, or when you are trying to fit the final piece or two on your already contending team. In my opinion, a team shouldn't trade first round picks until they are a contender already, rather than trying to make themselves a contender. That Hamonic deal was just awful.



3) Feaster was not a talent evaluator (he said so himself). Conroy is. Conroy has done a lot of scouting. He has also worked closely with the drafting and development team. He knows which voices to trust. He knows the history of each scout on this team. A new GM wouldn't be as familiar. Conroy can be an asset here in that regard, where Feaster at least realized that he should just get out of the way.


4) More valuable UFAs - or at least, I do expect more value this time around. Burke fired feaster, and one of the reasons cited was a lack of value from trades. Conroy is a new GM, so we don't have a track record of this to be sure, but I will take the new guy who is fairly unproven (Toffoli trade aside) vs the guy who got fired for making bad trades.



5) More prospects in the pipeline. There isn't a Gaudreau, but that doesn't mean that there for sure isn't another superstar. Baertschi was also probably rated higher than any other skater that we currently have, as most people had him as a really solid blue-chipper. Jankowski had a lot of mixed opinions, but he did start off his career with two 17 point seasons playing in the bottom 6 when he finally graduated. (I will never understand how he fizzled out). I do think there are a lot more bullets in the chamber when it comes to prospects now, however, and Wolf is a blue-chip prospect.



6) Button - I think he has learned his lesson. When having his exceptional list, I hope he draws on it each time and doesn't wait and decide to take a Wotherspoon over a Kucherov. What could have been?



7) Again, Conroy understanding that you have to put prospects in positions to succeed. No stating Mangiapane off on the 4th line. No more pushing the highest rated centre prospect to the wing, or stapling him to players that aren't very good, or not giving him the right situations to develop (Bennett). All the young players are getting a lot of looks in the top 6, including Ruzicka. If you are not in a position to properly develop your prospects, it almost doesn't matter who you draft.


8) This could be 7b - Having the Wranglers in town. Everyone can better keep the pulse of the team and how the kids are developing better. Lots of benefits having them in the same city. More resources can be used on them, more eyes to aid with development, or to even curb issues. For instance, McGrattan can get involved sooner when a guy like Poirier (Jeremie) developed some off-ice issues. He was a fantastic pick that was really developing well.


I know that a lot of people are worried about Conroy being new here, or possibly not being ready. He has been training for this for over a decade now. He has seen the complete cycle HERE in Calgary. He knows the scouting department. He knows the values of all the players on the team. He knows who is or isn't good in the room. I think in some ways, Feaster had more advantages in terms of having better players available to be traded (arguable) as well as having a very strong draft class to kickstart the rebuild from, but all other advantages I do believe belong to Conroy.


I really look forward to it.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I think it's better now for a two reasons: a deeper and more balanced prospect pool at the outset, and more valuable assets to trade out.

Pelletier - Zary - Coronato
Suniev - Honzek - Pospisil

Morin, Poirier, Solovyov

Wolf

Obviously, not all prospects pan out, and there are no guaranteed studs in that group, though a couple might be. But there is a fair bit to build around, there.

Then you've got Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Zadorov, and Vladdar as tradable assets this year, and Backlund, Mangiapane and Markstrom next year. You also have Dube and Coleman as guys you could potentially move.

In the middle group, you have some quality guys that still have long runways, in Andersson, Weegar, Sharangovich, and Dube and Mangiapane (if tehy aren't traded)

I agree. I think that this rebuild is much further ahead than last time despite being stuck with Huberdeau(still think he can be ok with a different top center). The Flames need depth at prospect and on the roster as they probably aren't going to land big time UFAs during a rebuild like teams like the Rangers did.

The biggest X-Factor for me with this rebuild is they are making the call much earlier in the season. 2013 they pulled the plug right at the deadline, they are making the call in November. 2013 rebuild would have been so much better if we got a Mackinnon rather than a Monahan. They haven't made a trade yet so we will see, but if we start the dealing guys before the Christmas trade freeze, we could be setting up for a good chance at 1st overall. Something the Flames have never commited to for 75% of a season

[CSharp]

2013 rebuild was rushed and at least 2 missed huge opportunities to acquire generational/franchise players in back to back years. Move that 10 years and we have the same result - trying to make the playoffs when the team is just not a playoff contender after losing 2 high end offensive players. Again, missed opportunities to get a really great build with another generational draft in 2023. 2024 seems to be on the right track to get high draft pick once and for all but with how the team is starting to win half the time now, we're on the verge of doing what this organization has been doing for some 30+ years!

[CFO]

How cap now versus 2013 is around $23.5 mm higher. If this trend continues, Huberdeau contract 5 years from now is fine. Star players will be making north of $15 million a year.

[Delthefunky]

2013 by far

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

better opportunity if they properly extract value from the current core.

I wonder if the NHL landscape has shifted so much in the past decade that it actually makes this easier to do now as well. Something that has become glaringly clear over that time is how the power-balance in the League has changed to favour "Big Market" teams. This in turn makes it even more difficult for managers in less attractive markets to accelerate rebuilds through trades and free agency. I genuinely believe Conroy when he says that he wants to build through the Draft, but then, he also doesn't have much of a choice, either. Treliving badly overspent his Draft capital in large part because this was an available option—I think that is more difficult now for Conroy to actually do.

[Huntingwhale]

2013 was a much better position. Literally everyone knew that the time for the Iggy and Kipper era was closing. Iggy deserved to chase a cup and attempted to do so. We all knew Kipper was going to retire before the last year of his contract. Bouwmeester was playing re-invigorated with a new coach and the team knew he could fetch a return. While Feaster seemed to get some lacklustre returns for Iggy and JayBo, having a three 1st round picks was pretty sweet (even though only 1 panned out). The D was being rebuilt as much more mobile when slower guys left. The team was very clearly entering a rebuild stage and the org had no choice but to embrace it.

Right now is much different. A few long term contracts were signed literally last season and are pretty much immovable. You had Mr Bean saying outloud that the R word is never to be used. I don't doubt Conroy wants to rebuild, but I think he was also chosen as the GM for being the yes-man Murray Edwards wants. I think that the rebuild in 2013 started a few seasons too late but the team got dragged in kicking and screaming. I think the same will happen to this iteration. Maybe not this season if Markstrom keeps playing lights out, but at some point it's all going to come crumbling and there will be no choice.

[Strange Brew]

The 2013 team had all of their first round picks. But was down a 2nd rounder because of the absurd Regehr trade.

This team is down a 1st because of the absurd Monahan trade.

The 2022 draft hurts this version of the team.