Flames stars Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau stick together

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Really, I keep hearing 4, but even better if it's 5!

Where the fan is confused is the burning a year of Johnny's deal didn't burn a year of RFA eligibility as well. He still has 7 years before he is a UFA and his rookie season was year one

[CroFlames]

The suspense is killing me. Please just sign a deal Johnny

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

First of all, I don't think there is any chance he would get $25M on a 4 year deal. Being all RFA, I think it would be under $20M.

Second, it is a MASSIVE assumption to think he would get an 8 x $90M in 4 years. That would only come after Stanley Cups and competing for scoring titles and Hart trophies.

I would think a bridge deal would be more like Subban's - most recent bridge deals have 3 handles, not 6.

If he were to sign a 2 year, $7M deal, and he continued to be a top 5 - 10 in the league in scoring, he could expect maybe an 8 x $8M or 8 x $8.5M (the Stamkos deal)

If I were Gaudreau, I would look at getting maybe a 7 year deal (which would probably be around $6.75M per), which would tee him up for a full UFA deal when he's 29.

So 7 x $6.75M = $47.25M

Then say another 7 x $10M (or whatever UFA stars are getting at that point)

Wait, you think his RFA years would only go for $5M, but his UFA years 11.25M? Essentially, you're saying the UFA years are 225% more valuable.

That's not a logical conclusion IMO. To me, his RFA years start at 6M.

Given he's been 18% more productive than Tarasenko had shown when he signed 8 year 60M contract, I think that's reasonable.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The suspense is killing me. Please just sign a deal Johnny

No kidding, *insert incessant nail biting gif here*

[Ryan Coke]

It's crazy to think Johnnys RFA only years are worth almost the same as a contract with 3 UFA years for Monahan.

UFA years are worth substantially more than RFA years, because he has no ability to sell his services on the open market.

It's really odd how you want him to make as much as possible. You don't seem to be a Flames fan at all, but only a Johnny fan.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Wait, you think his RFA years would only go for $5M, but his UFA years 11.25M? Essentially, you're saying the UFA years are 225% more valuable.

That's not entirely true.

While convenient to balance a contract that includes both by looking at an estimated UFA contract along with an estimated RFA contract, there are plenty of other factors (including earning potential).

You aren't saying that UFA years are worth 11.25 NOW, you're betting that they're worth that in 5 years (which, if he's great, they definitely will be). Any contract from both the player and the agent isn't just "what are you worth now" but "what will you be worth at this point, and at this point."

His post had pretty good numbers, actually.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

It's crazy to think Johnnys RFA only years are worth almost the same as a contract with 3 UFA years for Monahan.

UFA years are worth substantially more than RFA years, because he has no ability to sell his services on the open market.

It's really odd how you want him to make as much as possible. You don't seem to be a Flames fan at all, but only a Johnny fan.

Do you think UFA years are worth 225% more than RFA years?

It's really odd how you think I want him to make a certain amount just because I'm pointing out flaws in the logic of others . . .

Also, if Monahan's RFA years were worth 5.55 and UFA years worth 7.5 you pretty much get to his AAV. That's closer to a reasonable gap between UFA and RFA years.

Is it really unreasonable to think Johnny's RFA years start at 6M if Monahan's were ~5.5?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Do you think UFA years are worth 225%.

+125%, not +225%.

Is it really unreasonable to think Johnny's RFA years start at 6M if Monahan's were ~5.5?

How should we go about assigning value to RFA and UFA years separately on a combined contract? The very act of buying UFA years definitely affects the value of RFA years, and makes it exceptionally difficult to gauge the difference.

Is there a comparable RFA bridge deal to compare to what Gaudreau's RFA years are actually worth?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Do you think UFA years are worth 225% more than RFA years?

It's really odd how you think I want him to make a certain amount just because I'm pointing out flaws in the logic of others . . .

Also, if Monahan's RFA years were worth 5.55 and UFA years worth 7.5 you pretty much get to his AAV. That's closer to a reasonable gap between UFA and RFA years.

Is it really unreasonable to think Johnny's RFA years start at 6M if Monahan's were ~5.5?

You could just as easily say that Monahan's RFA years were $5M and his UFA years are worth $8.2M

Or his RFA years are worth $4M and the UFA years are worth $9.5M

The fact is that we don't know how it breaks down, but we do know two things:

1) UFA years are worth more than RFA years - quite a bit more, and

2) both UFA years and RFA years are worth more, when there is more term commitment, for a young improving player

Other than that, we are just speculating. And the deal, in its aggregate, incorporates a lot of things, and may not necessarily split up between the RFA and UFA years as cleanly as we, as fans, sometimes suggest.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You could just as easily say that Monahan's RFA years were $5M and his UFA years are worth $8.2M

Or his RFA years are worth $4M and the UFA years are worth $9.5M

The fact is that we don't know how it breaks down, but we do know two things:

1) UFA years are worth more than RFA years - quite a bit more, and

2) both UFA years and RFA years are worth more, when there is more term commitment, for a young improving player

Other than that, we are just speculating. And the deal, in its aggregate, incorporates a lot of things, and may not necessarily split up between the RFA and UFA years as cleanly as we, as fans, sometimes suggest.

Fair points all around. I still think that sort of multiplier on RFA years is a bit unreasonable. Pat Kane's contract in like 2010 was 5x6.3 and was exclusively RFA years if I recall.

[Ryan Coke]

Wasn't that the year that Tallon forgot to file QO's in time which allowed them to become UFA's? He still got them signed, but he had to pay for that error.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

Fair points all around. I still think that sort of multiplier on RFA years is a bit unreasonable. Pat Kane's contract in like 2010 was 5x6.3 and was exclusively RFA years if I recall.

They only bought one year of UFA status on that contract and if you also recall the Hawks had made it to the third round and won a cup with Kane scoring the cup winning goal

The last Stamkos contract also only bought one year of free agency but lucky for Tampa they were able to keep him

[Bingo]

the mix of RFA years to max years of the deal is where the value thing is keeping the Gaudreau contract down. Could even be the issue for all we know.

If Gaudreau signed a 3 year bridge deal for $15 then negotiated a new deal in 3 years with only 2 RFA years remaining it would be easy to get his contract AAV up past $7.5M.

But trying to do it now on a 8 year deal with 5 RFA years and only 3 UFA years keeps his value in the Giordano $6.75 range.

Some guesses ...

1) 8 year deal now

5.5
5.5
5.5
6
6
----
8
8.5
9

AAV 6.75

2) deal signed in 3 years

5.5
5.5
----
8
8
8
8.5
9
9

$7.7 AAV

[Weitz]

I don't think you would get 5.5 for 2 years with Arb rights and offer sheet potential.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I don't think you would get 5.5 for 2 years with Arb rights and offer sheet potential.

Are you suggesting a 2 year deal would be north of $5.5M AAV?

Name one post-ELC player even close to that.

Subban's was what $3.5M?

Edit: or are you talking about the first 2 years of a 2nd contract?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are you suggesting a 2 year deal would be north of $5.5M AAV?

Name one post-ELC player even close to that.

Subban's was what $3.5M?

Edit: or are you talking about the first 2 years of a 2nd contract?

Yes sorry the second contract. At that point I would think Gaudreau would have proven enough for a larger contract. Even on RFA years.

[Gaudreauvertime]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Are you suggesting a 2 year deal would be north of $5.5M AAV?

Name one post-ELC player even close to that.

Subban's was what $3.5M?

Edit: or are you talking about the first 2 years of a 2nd contract?

Subban was coming off a 7g 36p season, a pretty big decline over the previous year where he scored 14g and 38p in 5 less games. So not only was he not a top 3 player in his position, he was trending downward from a production perspective.

Honestly, Johnny signing a bridge deal would be unprecedented. But I also can't ever recall a player finishing top 6 in scoring signing a deal for <40% of the league max contract.

[Huntingwhale]

Hopefully Gaudreau's contract is nice and long. I have a feeling it will be the only one he ever signs with the Flames.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Hopefully Gaudreau's contract is nice and long. I have a feeling it will be the only one he ever signs with the Flames.

Like McDavid's situation, I feel it's all about how successful the team is. If the Flames become a contender over the next 2-3 years, I think getting Gaudreau re-signed after a bridge won't be a problem. If we are still wallowing in mediocrity, all bets are off.

But I do read a lot of this worry these days and I wonder what it is. Some of this team's fans are more insecure than Oilers fans were when they won the lotto and McDavid looked like he wanted to blow his brains out. What's the deal?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Like McDavid's situation, I feel it's all about how successful the team is. If the Flames become a contender over the next 2-3 years, I think getting Gaudreau re-signed after a bridge won't be a problem. If we are still wallowing in mediocrity, all bets are off.

But I do read a lot of this worry these days and I wonder what it is. Some of this team's fans are more insecure than Oilers fans were when they won the lotto and McDavid looked like he wanted to blow his brains out. What's the deal?

Definitely. I really don't have a problem with a bridge deal, if it means the Flames still have player control. It would be preferable to lock him down to a long term deal, but only so we don't have to deal with the inevitable melt down from this board in a few short years, with the worry that we won't be able to re-sign him.

I think the Subban comparison is apt. He was a really exciting player, but his ceiling was a bit of an x-factor. Signed a very reasonable bridge deal, with the expectation of a much bigger payday if he performed. Performed he did, and in the end it might have cost the Canadiens some money, but that is a worthwhile gamble in my opinion. It means you have a really, really good player on your hands, with a longer track record to justify a big deal. Personally I think Montreal went a little overboard on that contract, and perhaps didn't get enough in return on the Weber deal, but at least they had a very good player on their blue line and an impressive trading chip if it came to that.