Looking at the West after free agency

[d_phaneuf]

I don't see Smith as a consistent starter

He's something like 46th in the NHL in save percentage the last 3 years, maybe some of that is based on the team in front of him but goalies from worse teams are ahead of him on the list

I think the flames need 2 things to go right to push ahead of Anaheim and Edmonton

Average or better goaltending and one of the forwards stepping up and giving the 3rd line more scoring depth, Bennett seems most likely as an option. If those happen they have no excuses not to make the 2nd round at least

Anaheim still has a few years out of Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler before the rakell, Silfverberg, Ritchie group needs to lead them. But their top 4 d is up there with Nashville and Calgary. Miller is a great backup and insurance plan too

Edmonton lacks depth on d after the top 4, top 3 until sekera is back and Russell without a good partner may be a struggle too, very strong top pairing though

Up front though they have the best player im the world arguably and also a case could be made that draisatl is the second best forward in the division going forward. Maroon and Lucic are decent middle six wingers. Puuljarrvi could solidify the top 6 if he steps up this year. I expect them to deal for a d man before the playoffs

I think right now it's a pretty even top 3 in the Pacific

After that LA, SJ, and maybe Arizona compete for a wild card. I don't think any are stronger than the top 5 or 6 in the central, but 3 bad teams in division might allow them to pick up extra points

Then other teams are playing for bottom 5 spots

Vancouver signed fill-in FAs so they can keep their prospects in the ahl another year and if any are good would move them, like the leafs strategy from 2 years ago

Colorado has done nothing to improve but shouldn't by virtue of things not going as horrible as they could for 2 straight years

Vegas really tanked the expansion draft hard and likely are in the mix for 31st

Right now I'd say

Pacific

Anaheim
Edmonton
Calgary
LA
Arizona
SJ
Las Vegas
Vancouver

Dallas
Nashville
Minnesota
Chicago(WC)
Winnipeg (WC)
St Louis
Colorado

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

Snip...

Right now I'd say

Pacific

Anaheim
Edmonton
Calgary
LA
Arizona
SJ
Las Vegas
Vancouver

Dallas
Nashville
Minnesota
Chicago(WC)
Winnipeg (WC)
St Louis
Colorado

I would agree with this. Just Don't think Dallas will be top of the central and I think the Pacific gets a WC. I don't see SJ dropping that far.

[dino7c]

There are certainly no guarantees but we are talking a few more wins to put Calgary into that #2 in the west spot...it is certainly possible. Anaheim won the division last season with ONE more win than Calgary. Flames were the best team in the division from November on.

It's really not a big stretch

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

Edmonton lacks depth on d after the top 4, top 3 until sekera is back and Russell without a good partner may be a struggle too, very strong top pairing though

Up front though they have the best player im the world arguably and also a case could be made that draisatl is the second best forward in the division going forward. Maroon and Lucic are decent middle six wingers. Puuljarrvi could solidify the top 6 if he steps up this year. I expect them to deal for a d man before the playoffs

to the first bold...

Brodie-Hamonic = Klefbom-Larsson

A case can be made either way. I would argue that Brodie and Hamonic are better today than the Oiler pair, just by sheer virtue of being in their primes. The Oiler duo may pass them at some point, but aren't better today.

In other words, Calgary's 2nd pair is roughly equal to Edomonton's top pair. Then the Flames also have one of the best pairs in the NHL to go along with them. Think about that.

To the 2nd bold... lol

Please keep stating this loudly, until Draisaitl gets signed. Then you might want to take a closer look at what he accomplishes when not on McDavid's line.

At this moment in time, Draisaitl might be the most over-rated player in the NHL (which is awesome for contract reasons). Take a look at some of the goals he scored in the playoffs - Gibson practically jumped out of the way every time Draisaitl shot the puck.

Please Chia, give him $9M per.

Since this is a prediction thread... I predict the Flames will get more than 100 points and the Oilers will get less than 100 points.

[Otto-matic]

Pacific

Anaheim
Calgary
Edmonton
SJ (WC)
LA
Arizona
Las Vegas
Vancouver


Minnesota
Nashville
Chicago
Dallas(WC)
Winnipeg
St Louis
Colorado

This is how I see it shaking down next season.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Corral

The Flames are not going to go from bubble playoff team to second in the West with the signing of Travis Hamonic and Mike Smith. Lets get real.

Didn't know you had a monopoly on reality

[Fuzz]

So I know you always bet against the Oilers...last year I lost a lunch(and my lunch) on that bet, but I did win the previous 4. I told him I wanted to hold out on placing the bet again until the trades got sorted, and we maybe got a goalie. So, am I in a big risk of losing my lunch again? Oh, the bet is whichever team makes it farther in the playoffs, or has more points. Or is this a pretty safe bet to take this season?

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So I know you always bet against the Oilers...last year I lost a lunch(and my lunch) on that bet, but I did win the previous 4. I told him I wanted to hold out on placing the bet again until the trades got sorted, and we maybe got a goalie. So, am I in a big risk of losing my lunch again? Oh, the bet is whichever team makes it farther in the playoffs, or has more points. Or is this a pretty safe bet to take this season?

50/50 at worst. Talbot has to remain hot and McDavid injury free for the Oilers to have a chance to stay above the Flames.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So I know you always bet against the Oilers...last year I lost a lunch(and my lunch) on that bet, but I did win the previous 4. I told him I wanted to hold out on placing the bet again until the trades got sorted, and we maybe got a goalie. So, am I in a big risk of losing my lunch again? Oh, the bet is whichever team makes it farther in the playoffs, or has more points. Or is this a pretty safe bet to take this season?

I'd take the bet if I was you, probably should just do a straight points bet.

I just don't think that the Oilers are going to come close to replicating last years successes.

It was a perfect storm of too many things going absolutely right at the same time.

Plus right now, without Sekera, Poulliot and Eberle with Russell sliding higher in the lineup then he should be allowed, and newly aquired Ryan "Junk Bond" Strome sliding in for Eberle, I think that team is poised to tumble badly.

[Textcritic]

Pacific

Anaheim
Calgary
Edmonton
SJ
Arizona
LA
Vancouver
Vegas

Central
Nashville
Chicago
Dallas
Minnesota (WC)
St Louis (WC)
Winnipeg
Colorado

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But the Flames have had a ridiculous 3 v 3 record in each of the past two seasons since the new OT format was introduced. Why should anyone expect it to be different this year?

3v3 suits the Flames to a tee, so they may well continue to dominate there. Every 3v3 game, however, is a game they didn't win in regulation. While 3v3 wins are 100% valid in the standings, they point to a weaker regulation game than their rivals. Their offseason improvements may help them win more in regulation instead of OT but not increase their overall number of wins.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Their offseason improvements may help them win more in regulation instead of OT but not increase their overall number of wins.

Why wouldn't it also help them lose fewer games in regulation, thus giving them more chances at OT? I should think the two factors would roughly balance out, giving them more wins overall.

[dammage79]

I don't know, Anaheim without Kesler for however long are going to be very shallow at center. Of course as I type this I just realized that Anaheim are notorious slow starters and slay into the playoffs. Still, I think the pacific shift in power out of California is is just beginning this coming season. Wouldn't surprise me to see the Ducks have a down year and miss. They play a ton of playoff hockey and their core is another year older.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by edslunch

3v3 suits the Flames to a tee, so they may well continue to dominate there. Every 3v3 game, however, is a game they didn't win in regulation. While 3v3 wins are 100% valid in the standings, they point to a weaker regulation game than their rivals. Their offseason improvements may help them win more in regulation instead of OT but not increase their overall number of wins.

That sounds like a massive reach to me. By the same measure their offseason improvements will help them get more games to OT that they might otherwise have lost outright. This will not only reduce their overall number of losses, it will also likely increase their number of OT wins since they excel at it.

[dissentowner]

I am not even going to try to figure it out. Every year it looks like you can make an educated guess at what the standings will be and it never ends up right. There are always a couple teams that you think will be world beaters that suck and a couple that look like garbage only to make the playoffs.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Saad is a better all around player than Panarin.

Yes he is but you can't deny how dynamic Kane and Panarin were, Kane had 106 and 89 pts with him. I'm not even sure Saad played much with Kane before as I thought Sharp was on the other wing.

If Sharp can find the fountain of youth they might be ok but otherwise that lineup is a whole lot less scary to me.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

So I know you always bet against the Oilers...last year I lost a lunch(and my lunch) on that bet, but I did win the previous 4. I told him I wanted to hold out on placing the bet again until the trades got sorted, and we maybe got a goalie. So, am I in a big risk of losing my lunch again? Oh, the bet is whichever team makes it farther in the playoffs, or has more points. Or is this a pretty safe bet to take this season?

I make similar bets annually.

Which is it though - points or playoff success? Or is it a case of further in the playoffs automatically wins, and if neither goes further, then regular season points?

Regardless, I like the bet this year. It is going to be close - basically a coin flip as far as odds go - but I personally think the Flames finish with over 100 pts and the Oilers with less than 100.

I think the Oilers had a lot go right last year and the Flames had a lot go wrong (except for injuries). I think the lack of Sekera for 2 or 3 months will hurt. But more importantly, Talbot knocked it out of the park last year - their best case scenario is that he is the same, and if he isn't he and they will be worse. Big risk for them there. Also, they didn't improve their team over the summer, and one could argue that they weakened it.

As for the Flames, I think the combination of three things: better start, solidified goaltending, and stronger defense, will make for a pretty significant improvement. If a couple guys step up to the next level (any of: Bennett, Ferland, Foo, Jankowski), the offense could be better too. And if that happens, I think they fight for the division crown.

Take the bet - and win your lunch back!

[dino7c]

I also think the Oilers could fall back a bit (I know, shocking from a Flames fan)

losing their #3 scorer, say what you will points are points
Talbot standing on his head
Sekera

but more than anything they are under far more pressure now with big contracts and big expectations. Last year it was basically "don't be dead last, play meaningful games"

not the case now...also, don't underestimate all the b2b's

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I also think the Oilers could fall back a bit (I know, shocking from a Flames fan)

losing their #3 scorer, say what you will points are points
Talbot standing on his head
Sekera

but more than anything they are under far more pressure now with big contracts and big expectations. Last year it was basically "don't be dead last, play meaningful games"

not the case now...also, don't underestimate all the b2b's

They only have 1 more B2B this year as opposed to last (11 to 10). 10 Afternoon games is interesting though.

I see the Oilers finishing about where the did last year. Battling in the top 3 of the division.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I make similar bets annually.

Which is it though - points or playoff success? Or is it a case of further in the playoffs automatically wins, and if neither goes further, then regular season points?
...
Take the bet - and win your lunch back!

If neither make the playoffs, it's points based on whatever is on HNL.com for rankings. If they both make it, it is then which team goes further/wins more games etc...it hasn't got down to a technical nitty gritty argument but I was under the assumption there is some ranking on nhl.com we could defer to. If not, uhmm...whichever team has had the least # of #1 draft picks in the past 10 years?

And ya, I should take the bet. He took it when it was clear Edmonton sucked and he was going to lose, though I think he may not have been aware of that. Delusional Edmonton fan and all that. I'm more cautiously realistic when there is a chance of turning money over to a greaser.