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Old 01-25-2015, 10:34 AM   #1
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Old 01-25-2015, 10:50 AM   #2
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Yup...without seeing the more in depth analysis you provided here, I would have guessed that although goaltending has been good at times (and even stolen a couple games outright) that even more responsibility for their current standing is what the offense has provided. Specifically what the defensemen have added offensively this season.

I suspect that Hartley and crew are looking for a way to get a bit more from the forward group as a whole along with continuing to allow the D to jump in when its safe to and get even more offense out of this team.

But as always the G's have to be good as well or nothing else really matters. Having Ortio down in Addy is a nice luxury though and "should" be a real incentive to Hiller/Ramo to get better.

Team defense has not been great either and is another area they have to improve on. This is where I see Treliving trying to maybe add a piece or two as we head to the deadline.
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Old 01-25-2015, 10:58 AM   #3
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Great article.

As you say, it's simply one stat and isn't an 'answer' in and of itself. However, it is interesting and there is definitely some information there.

It begs the age old question: does good defense make for good goaltending, or does good goaltending make for good defense? The answer of course, is probably somewhere in the middle.

For the Flames at least, I think those numbers match 'my eye' for this season. Goaltending has been great at times, but also ok at times and downright weak at times (especially through the slump). So seeing that their save percentage ranks just below their winning percentage sounds just about right.

To the point of the rest of the season, I think it is pretty obvious - and your numbers back that up - that they will need top half goaltending the rest of the way to have any chance at the post season.
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Old 01-25-2015, 11:12 AM   #4
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Great write-up, Bingo! Thanks for pointing this out in such a direct manner.

One question though: What's the difference between a "type A fan" and a "tier 2 fan"? I'll just go ahead and assume that neither is welcome at Rexall...
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Old 01-25-2015, 11:21 AM   #5
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Awesome job! This is interesting.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:00 PM   #6
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Goaltending is one-third and should be less focus on a team build than the forward and defensive positions. You build the team from the back out and we all saw what happened to the Flames after they went to the finals. It was a slow miserable decline into the abyss until the team can't go any further down as far as what the Oilers are doing. From the point where the Flames picked up secondary scoring before getting the the Finals in 2014 to where they were at the height of their division, the Flames were pretty solid from back to front. As the Sutter teams went on through the years, it was evident that the some holes were not filled and all Sutter did was he kept building the defense and did a makeshift patch-up work for the forwards and goalie as Iggy and Kipper held the opposite ends.

If we all look at this season thus far, if it wasn't for the offense picking up the goals to tie a lot of the games to go into OT, the Flames would've lost a lot of one to two goal games. This was seen before with the "Young Guns" back in the late '90s and the Flames teams back then had good goalies. We can also argue that those goalies back then were probably better than the goalies we have currently. But the reasons the Young Guns era didn't go anywhere was because there were no secondary scoring except for Iggy doing it all. Right now, the Flames scoring is spread between the lines and even the first two D-lines are contributing. It is also very evident in the past month, especially playing against the really good teams (Ducks, Kings, Islanders, Rangers) that you see the Flames being hemmed in their own zone. We all can say that the goalies did a great job of keeping the team in the game. However, the amount of shots that were blocked is amazing to say the least. Sure, one can always argue that without Hiller, the team wouldn't be in a playoff position at all. I can argue the other way and say that if Gaudreau, Jooris, Gio, and Brodie weren't there to provide the goals, who cares if a #1 goalie in the world took to the stage - the Flames are still in the rebuilding process.

Teams built to win the Cup has always been built with scoring depth up front with a mix of big d-men that are good defensively with a couple of mobile offensive minded players. As for goalies, you can pick almost any #1 goalie from any team (except from the Oilers) to win the cup on a Stanley Cup winning team. Most goalies nowadays are good enough to stop at least 90% of the shots. It is up to all the other guys in front that need to do things on the other end of the rink to win the games. This is why I say it is better to build the team from front to back rather than back to front. I still contend the team this year without Hiller would result in about the same amount of points. Even if they weren't contending for a playoff spot, at least the rebuild process would continue with maybe a better pick at the end of this season. With a good goalie skewing the progress of a rebuild, it can be bad for the future rather than good.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:22 PM   #7
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Great article!

One small suggestion Bingo - the small font article format is dead (just take a look at Sportsnet and how large they've gone).

Would be great to bump this up so I don't have to keep adjusting my browser settings.

2 cents.
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Old 01-25-2015, 12:22 PM   #8
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stellar article, very creative, fresh perspective. thanks again
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Old 01-25-2015, 01:29 PM   #9
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Teams with a run n gun style tend to give up more quality chances. This would make their goaltending stats look lesser in comparison. At the same time their own quality chances increases as the defence pinches improving thier shooting percentage.
I think this contributes to what we are seeing from Tampa and Anaheim. Calgary too.
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Old 01-25-2015, 01:54 PM   #10
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Goaltending!
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Old 01-25-2015, 02:02 PM   #11
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Goalies are the most important position in hockey......
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Old 01-25-2015, 02:50 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSharp View Post
Goaltending is one-third and should be less focus on a team build than the forward and defensive positions. You build the team from the back out and we all saw what happened to the Flames after they went to the finals. It was a slow miserable decline into the abyss until the team can't go any further down as far as what the Oilers are doing. From the point where the Flames picked up secondary scoring before getting the the Finals in 2014 to where they were at the height of their division, the Flames were pretty solid from back to front. As the Sutter teams went on through the years, it was evident that the some holes were not filled and all Sutter did was he kept building the defense and did a makeshift patch-up work for the forwards and goalie as Iggy and Kipper held the opposite ends.

If we all look at this season thus far, if it wasn't for the offense picking up the goals to tie a lot of the games to go into OT, the Flames would've lost a lot of one to two goal games. This was seen before with the "Young Guns" back in the late '90s and the Flames teams back then had good goalies. We can also argue that those goalies back then were probably better than the goalies we have currently. But the reasons the Young Guns era didn't go anywhere was because there were no secondary scoring except for Iggy doing it all. Right now, the Flames scoring is spread between the lines and even the first two D-lines are contributing. It is also very evident in the past month, especially playing against the really good teams (Ducks, Kings, Islanders, Rangers) that you see the Flames being hemmed in their own zone. We all can say that the goalies did a great job of keeping the team in the game. However, the amount of shots that were blocked is amazing to say the least. Sure, one can always argue that without Hiller, the team wouldn't be in a playoff position at all. I can argue the other way and say that if Gaudreau, Jooris, Gio, and Brodie weren't there to provide the goals, who cares if a #1 goalie in the world took to the stage - the Flames are still in the rebuilding process.

Teams built to win the Cup has always been built with scoring depth up front with a mix of big d-men that are good defensively with a couple of mobile offensive minded players. As for goalies, you can pick almost any #1 goalie from any team (except from the Oilers) to win the cup on a Stanley Cup winning team. Most goalies nowadays are good enough to stop at least 90% of the shots. It is up to all the other guys in front that need to do things on the other end of the rink to win the games. This is why I say it is better to build the team from front to back rather than back to front. I still contend the team this year without Hiller would result in about the same amount of points. Even if they weren't contending for a playoff spot, at least the rebuild process would continue with maybe a better pick at the end of this season. With a good goalie skewing the progress of a rebuild, it can be bad for the future rather than good.
You are under-rating goaltending IMO.

One save (or lack thereof) is often the difference between winning and losing.

Look at the Flames this season: when their goaltending was solid early, and recently, they have been a confident team. When it faltered, they went on an 5-game skid.

Yes, offense and defense are also important. But to suggest that any decent goalie is interchangeable is silly. Rinne, Price, Rask and Lundqvist are 4 glaring examples of how great goaltending elevates a team.
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Old 01-25-2015, 05:22 PM   #13
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I like the article but if I read that correctly you used team save percentage. If a backup is terrible but only plays in 5 of 40 games you're getting an slanted view of the goaltending IMO. I wonder how the data would look if you used just the starters for teams that have a set #1. Just a small observation, feel free to point out any incorrect assumptions I've made.
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Old 01-26-2015, 08:39 AM   #14
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Quote:
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I like the article but if I read that correctly you used team save percentage. If a backup is terrible but only plays in 5 of 40 games you're getting an slanted view of the goaltending IMO. I wonder how the data would look if you used just the starters for teams that have a set #1. Just a small observation, feel free to point out any incorrect assumptions I've made.
Plus doesn't empty net goals factor into the team save percentage as well? One shot one goal? Or no?

I had two sources that matched on save percentage but some teams had a team save percentage well under the guy starting most of the games meaning the backups would have to suck.

Either way the starter thing gets messy with a) injuries and b) tandems so I just left it simple as team save percentage. The less cherry picking you do the better!
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Old 01-26-2015, 08:55 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
You are under-rating goaltending IMO.

One save (or lack thereof) is often the difference between winning and losing.

Look at the Flames this season: when their goaltending was solid early, and recently, they have been a confident team. When it faltered, they went on an 5-game skid.

Yes, offense and defense are also important. But to suggest that any decent goalie is interchangeable is silly. Rinne, Price, Rask and Lundqvist are 4 glaring examples of how great goaltending elevates a team.
To add to that, Pittsburgh has an all round great team. But goaltending consistently fails them in the post season. Look at the Flyers. Strong up front, lacking in net and have been paying that price for the last 20 years. Look at strong teams like TB last season who lost their starter come playoff time. A lot of things have to go right for a team to make a deep playoff run, including luck. So there is no formula that your team must be elite up front or on the back. You just need the right blend. Having said that, goaltending in the #1 most important position in the game and that will never change.
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Old 01-26-2015, 09:14 AM   #16
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And doesn't this play into a Ortio discussion as well? I think it was Enoch that pointed out that the Flames lost the transition and stretch pass in their game when they lost their confidence in their goaltending. With Ortio we saw a return to some of that hockey when they were in California (the Arizona game was the transition back to the transition where they were on their heels through 40 minutes somewhat and then exploded in the third, carried that into SJ and LA)
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Old 01-26-2015, 01:00 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
You are under-rating goaltending IMO.

One save (or lack thereof) is often the difference between winning and losing.

Look at the Flames this season: when their goaltending was solid early, and recently, they have been a confident team. When it faltered, they went on an 5-game skid.

Yes, offense and defense are also important. But to suggest that any decent goalie is interchangeable is silly. Rinne, Price, Rask and Lundqvist are 4 glaring examples of how great goaltending elevates a team.
I guess my point is to NOT overrate the goalie. When Chicago won the Cup a few years back, they had a choice to make in regards to Niemi. So, they got Crawford. Crawford can do the job, however, they really don't have to depend on Crawford to get the job done. They actually don't have to rely on any top notch goaltending to be in place. You can campare a team like Chicago vs Calgary or even Anaheim vs Calgary. All the action for the opposing team is within the Calgary zone 3-quarter of the time. The Flames currently rely too much on the goalie and defence get them out of a whole whereas the top Cup contending team rely on the offence to win them the games. Games are won in the offensive battles. If you don't build the team to have offensive threat, the team always have to back up in a defensive mode and rely on the coverage in front of the net.

If the Flames have show it this year, they can tie a game up with no goalie in net Things have to happen in the offensive zone, not in your own end. You can put in the worst goalie in the world for 60 mins and get a shutout if all the action is down on the other end.

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