03-16-2015, 10:01 AM
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#1041
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Lifetime Suspension
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Look back over the last few pages. That chart has been discussed into the ground. It's still not any more valid than it was, when it was first posted. For those of us that believe it's basically garbage, we need to simply ignore it.
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03-16-2015, 10:03 AM
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#1042
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hells Bells
Not upset by it at all, its laughable.
Any chart with the Jets and Kings having a 26-30% higher chance at making the playoffs is certainly less valid IMO.
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I doubt a bettor would gamble that those teams have essentially an 80% chance of making it. I think all of those teams should be right where the Flames are; basically a 50/50 proposition.
__________________
From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
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03-16-2015, 10:05 AM
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#1043
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Section 120
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To move the subject:
Tonight the Kings will most likely get a W against Arizona, tying the Flames at 81 points.
I watched the Blues game yesterday, and they could've easily lost if it weren't for some big saves by Jake Allen. Their D wasn't as impressive as I would've expected. I think if the Flames play physical against their D, they will have a shot at grinding out a win.
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03-16-2015, 10:15 AM
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#1044
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hells Bells
Not upset by it at all, its laughable.
Any chart with the Jets and Kings having a 26-30% higher chance at making the playoffs is certainly less valid IMO.
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Because you say so?
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03-16-2015, 10:25 AM
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#1045
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug
I doubt a bettor would gamble that those teams have essentially an 80% chance of making it. I think all of those teams should be right where the Flames are; basically a 50/50 proposition.
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I bet they would
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03-16-2015, 10:28 AM
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#1046
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug
I doubt a bettor would gamble that those teams have essentially an 80% chance of making it. I think all of those teams should be right where the Flames are; basically a 50/50 proposition.
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Yup - here is where the rubber meets the road. Who would bet real $ that WIN or LA will finish higher than CGY?
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03-16-2015, 10:29 AM
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#1047
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
I bet they would
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Essentially 8 wins you 5 that both the Kings and Jets make the playoffs over the Flames?
I dunno - maybe.
I would definitely take the other end of that action.
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03-16-2015, 10:46 AM
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#1048
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First Line Centre
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Thank god Buff and Myers back today and practicing.
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03-16-2015, 10:48 AM
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#1049
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Yup - here is where the rubber meets the road. Who would bet real $ that WIN or LA will finish higher than CGY?
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If I absolutely had to bet whether LA would finish higher than CGY or lower? I would bet higher.
If I had to bet whether WPG would finish higher or lower than CGY? I would have a harder time because that chart does not take into account CHIP or goaltending, which is a serious problem for the Jets right now and will likely affect outcomes, though ^that post might have me leaning back towards WPG.
Now, who I WANT to finish higher is a different story entirely.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-16-2015, 10:58 AM
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#1050
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Because you say so?
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because the Flames have a better record than both those teams thus far
to say they have a 30% less chance doesn't make much sense considering they have been BETTER over the season so far
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03-16-2015, 01:51 PM
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#1051
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
If I absolutely had to bet whether LA would finish higher than CGY or lower? I would bet higher.
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Doesn't it matter that LA has 5 home games and 9 road games left? And that CGY has plenty of games left with non-playoff teams (perhaps 7)? LA has 5.
LA could finish higher, but the odds seem to be in CGY's favour.
Last edited by troutman; 03-16-2015 at 01:55 PM.
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03-16-2015, 01:52 PM
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#1052
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Franchise Player
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It certainly does matter in the sense that I'll take those things into account. However, on balance, I'll still lean towards LA finishing higher. Hopefully I'm wrong.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-16-2015, 01:53 PM
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#1053
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It certainly does matter in the sense that I'll take those things into account. However, on balance, I'll still lean towards LA finishing higher. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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Hey man do you mind posting the Corsi chart for the Flames/Leafs game? I am curious.
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03-16-2015, 02:07 PM
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#1054
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Franchise Player
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No problemo - it's the first chart on this page (click "charts").
http://war-on-ice.com/game.html?mans...=2014201521017
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-16-2015, 02:33 PM
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#1055
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
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Thank you. Didn't know the website. We got out-Corsi'd against the Leafs on Friday? Or am I reading that wrong?
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03-16-2015, 02:36 PM
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#1056
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Yup - here is where the rubber meets the road. Who would bet real $ that WIN or LA will finish higher than CGY?
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And my point is that it wouldn't be even money. If really is 80%, then they would need to lay some real cash for a minimal gain.
__________________
From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
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The Following User Says Thank You to Fighting Banana Slug For This Useful Post:
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03-16-2015, 02:39 PM
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#1057
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Salmon with Arms
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
Thank you. Didn't know the website. We got out-Corsi'd against the Leafs on Friday? Or am I reading that wrong?
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Yes, but not of you exclude "score effects". It's well established that teams trailing by more than one goal really rack up the shot attempts in order to get closer and leading teams sit back and prevent quality chances
The chart that CorsiHockeyLeague posts uses Fenwick Close which is unblocked shot attempts while the game is within one goal. There won't be much data for that game included because Calgary was up so early. Maybe 5-10 minutes of data. Interestingly, Fenwick Close had stronger predictor power than corsi
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03-16-2015, 02:42 PM
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#1058
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Yup - here is where the rubber meets the road. Who would bet real $ that WIN or LA will finish higher than CGY?
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I'll bet $50 that at least one of LA and Winnipeg will finish ahead of Calgary.
Any takers?
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03-16-2015, 02:44 PM
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#1059
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Franchise Player
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Correct. The chart shows that Toronto came out strong in the first 5 minutes, followed by a flurry from the Flames leading to a goal. The Flames then continued to press, but shortly after there is a bunch of PP time, and by the time that sequence was done the game was effectively over.
Everything after is what we refer to as "garbage time" - i.e., a bunch of game time during which the data isn't particularly useful because the score is so lopsided, which impacts how teams play in a significant way.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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03-16-2015, 02:44 PM
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#1060
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Originally Posted by polak
I'll bet $50 that at least one of LA and Winnipeg will finish ahead of Calgary.
Any takers?
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One doesn't fly.
According to those odds, both should.
That would have to be your bet, imo.
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