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Old 01-23-2017, 02:14 PM   #1
Realtor 1
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Default Home Sales Soaring In January - discussion

I do not think many predicted this... I have mentioned to some people that media will be picking up on this within a couple months as they are often behind by a month or 2 when they report trends. This came from what I was experiencing personally but then I read an article showing MLS sales are up 24% from the same period in January last year.

Average house prices also rised 1.85%


What does everyone believe to be driving these numbers?

I have a very long list of buyers that were sitting on the fence and then as of Jan 1 they all seemed to get very serious. Is there some optimism in the market and those trying to time the bottom are ready to act?

Is investment money flowing in from BC?

Is investment money flowing in from the US?
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Old 01-23-2017, 03:56 PM   #2
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Slowly recovering economy? House sales are so low more people are buying? I see some price drops on OP's going down about $10k, and then the eventual SP being another $10-$15k lower than that. If sellers are ok with accepting low ball offers like that I'm not too surprised that buyers (like me) are keenly going ahead rather than waiting/risking the fact that prices will likely go back up.
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Old 01-23-2017, 08:37 PM   #3
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Americans moving north now that Trump got inaugurated. That must be it.
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Old 01-24-2017, 08:19 AM   #4
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A big % gain of a small number is still a small number.

CREB shows currently a massive 14% increase in sales y/y January to date, however, that only works out to a total of 603 sales month-to-date.

For comparison, Aug 24, 2015, the month to date sales were 1,211 (it finished the month with 1,643 sales). Over double the current January 14% increase in sales. I picked August 24, 2015 as a random month in my stats that wasn't from the months of December or January.

Also, January 2015 wasn't exactly known to be a wonderful time for our real estate, yet the total sales as of 24-Jan-2015 were 601... almost identical to the 603 posted today on Creb.com. That month, Jan-2015 ended the month with 879 total sales, a massive reduction of the 2014 total Jan month sales of 1,438 (Jan 2013 total month sales were 1,229, Jan 2011 was 1,084, Jan 2010 was 1,128). It would be a decent assumption to say we are following the dismal January 2015 total sales pace.

Is this still bullish for the housing market? I would say it shows a potential sign of reversal, but anyone posting the stats you posted should note what a January month to date stat actually means, and how it when compared to previous years, or they are are being irresponsible in my opinion. Based on the numbers I posted above, I think we are still far below the needed sales in January for this to be considered a reversal and we are still in a downtrend.

Honestly, the lack of total new listings has me a bit more concerned as a buyer.

Lastly,

The average price gains are may only be due to homes selling within the higher price brackets, and not at the lower brackets - not necessary due to the increase in worth of a given home. I personally have nothing to back this up other then the stats another realtor on this forum put into the thread regarding the housing bubble burst. In the end, average price gains of a smaller number (i.e. less total sales as it is a January stat) means less statistically.

Long story short- if the above wasn't posted with whatever article you read, you're reading terrible articles and posts. Heck, even the average price argument which lacks the most data could be easily verified or disproven by CREB, but from what I seen, they don't address it.

As you are a Realtor, I must admit I am a little frustrated you simply posted what you posted without mentioning any of the above.

Last edited by Kavvy; 01-25-2017 at 08:16 AM.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:30 PM   #5
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Jan 2017 finished the month with 947 sales.

Not exactly great. It did beat out the 2015 pace.

Realtor1 - why didn't you respond to my last post?
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:09 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavvy View Post
Jan 2017 finished the month with 947 sales.

Not exactly great. It did beat out the 2015 pace.

Realtor1 - why didn't you respond to my last post?
I did have a lengthy response typed out and then felt it was best not to send.

My post was in no way coming across as OMG the downturn is over and January reminds me of the last boom. It was a 100% factual post comparing January last year to January this year. Why would I look at sales from 2, 3, 5 years ago If I am looking for an indicator as to where we are at in this current downturn?

You say it would be a fair assumption that we are following the dismal 2015 sale numbers which is simply not true and the entire point of this thread being created. We were signifcantly better than the 2015 numbers and a far way from $100+ oil numbers.

You then told me I was being irresponsible for not posting the numbers for 2015 and that I should let everyone know exactly what a year over year stat was. Perhaps you are better off not reading my posts if you feel they are irresponsible and one sided. Was I irresponsible when I posted my thoughts on CREB's 2016 forecast and how I believed the numbers would be worse than what CREB thought? The CP community has got to know me as someone who gives my honest opinion. I am not a "now is the best time to buy" all the time kind of guy.

The lack of new listings has you worried. Owners have less equity in their homes and most people who bought over the last several years are not in a position to break even on a sale. It comes as no surprise that inventory levels are down.

You then went on to discredit whatever article I read and something about terrible posts. I am sure you didn't see it coming when you posted but all major news outlets have now picked up on the statistics. (as I had predicted in my original post)

Finally, you tell me that you are frustrated that as a realtor I posted what I posted. I really do not see anything wrong with what I posted. Some positive stats came out which has been a rare sight during the downturn and I shared them. I then asked what CP felt was driving the January numbers. It is unfortunate that this frustrates you.
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:13 AM   #7
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And back on topic to the thread, I expect February to also have significantly higher sales than February of last year.

Working out of the #1 Remax office in the world based on closed transactions gives me a pretty good indication on the activity. Our office went from a bunch of empty offices to a full house.

Inner city builder demand seems to have spiked as well. A 50ft lot just came on for 599, 12 offers later it sold for 638. A fairly good comparable was bought 6 months ago for 550.
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Old 02-04-2017, 04:22 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
I did have a lengthy response typed out and then felt it was best not to send.

My post was in no way coming across as OMG the downturn is over and January reminds me of the last boom. It was a 100% factual post comparing January last year to January this year. Why would I look at sales from 2, 3, 5 years ago If I am looking for an indicator as to where we are at in this current downturn?

You say it would be a fair assumption that we are following the dismal 2015 sale numbers which is simply not true and the entire point of this thread being created. We were signifcantly better than the 2015 numbers and a far way from $100+ oil numbers.

You then told me I was being irresponsible for not posting the numbers for 2015 and that I should let everyone know exactly what a year over year stat was. Perhaps you are better off not reading my posts if you feel they are irresponsible and one sided. Was I irresponsible when I posted my thoughts on CREB's 2016 forecast and how I believed the numbers would be worse than what CREB thought? The CP community has got to know me as someone who gives my honest opinion. I am not a "now is the best time to buy" all the time kind of guy.

The lack of new listings has you worried. Owners have less equity in their homes and most people who bought over the last several years are not in a position to break even on a sale. It comes as no surprise that inventory levels are down.

You then went on to discredit whatever article I read and something about terrible posts. I am sure you didn't see it coming when you posted but all major news outlets have now picked up on the statistics. (as I had predicted in my original post)

Finally, you tell me that you are frustrated that as a realtor I posted what I posted. I really do not see anything wrong with what I posted. Some positive stats came out which has been a rare sight during the downturn and I shared them. I then asked what CP felt was driving the January numbers. It is unfortunate that this frustrates you.
Thanks for the response.

I still stand by my post, and don't feel you fairly actually addressed it properly. Out of respect for your thread, and the point you made that it seems you think I derailed your thread ("back on topic"), I won't respond here. Which is too bad, but I get it.
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Old 02-05-2017, 11:39 PM   #9
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I'm personally still skeptical that this is a sign of a recovery. I'm certainly no expert but just looking at the numbers, I see quite a bit of volatility in the winter volume numbers. And I certainly would not try to determine a trend using winter volume numbers based on the the law of small numbers. If you look back to 2010, there was a 30% year-over-year increase in detached housing sales from January to March. However, by the end of the year, annual numbers for 2010 ended up 16% lower than in 2009. We should know by May if what we're seeing is truly a recovery. But I personally don't believe we are seeing a recovery -- things are still pretty tough everywhere. Lots of companies are still just getting by and I'm not seeing much hiring of long term full-time positions. I'm also not seeing much in terms of raises and bonuses. And yet, debt levels in Alberta continue to grow. The only assets I see any growth are in stock portfolios as the TSX and the Dow have moved up 1000 and 1700 points, respectively, since Trump's election. So the investor class is doing much better these days but that is not enough to sustain a long term recovery in housing.

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Old 02-06-2017, 08:42 AM   #10
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I'm beginning to wonder if that little October - January bump was due to people looking to purchase while still having lower interest rates locked in before the October increase...
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Old 02-06-2017, 03:03 PM   #11
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All good points - I can speak on the base of my clientele and the interest rates had little to do with the buying decisions however you typically see interest rates as a top 2 most important factor to buyers so I wouldn't be surprised if the rates had some impact!
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Old 02-06-2017, 09:05 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Realtor 1 View Post
All good points - I can speak on the base of my clientele and the interest rates had little to do with the buying decisions however you typically see interest rates as a top 2 most important factor to buyers so I wouldn't be surprised if the rates had some impact!
CMHC goes up in March also doesn't it?
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Old 02-06-2017, 09:07 PM   #13
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Approval of Keystone combined with relatively low housing prices from the recent downturn probably has people rushing to by on the cheap before it really picks up again.
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Old 02-08-2017, 08:37 AM   #14
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My take on the market moving:

I live on the West Side, and watch the market quite actively. The number of stale listed $1mm + properties in the area was insane. During XMAS a lot of these home got taken off the market. Some of them have been relisted at the same price or just slightly lower and I am seeing them now starting to show up as conditionally sold/sold.

In my neighbourhood, many of the original buyers (2-3 years ago) all paid $1.1-$1.3mm, the same houses are now selling for ~$1mm. So there are "deals to be had" especially in the higher end market. I think that coupled with builders starting to build <$1mm on the West Side is really helping the market move in my area.

I used to live in Royal Oak (1.5 years ago) and sold my 2300sqft house for over $600k, looking at the market there now and prices have remained fairly stable.

My take is if you are looking to upgrade, its a very good time to dip your feet in. The $400-$600 market didn't see a huge dip, the >$1mm market looks like it had a good correction. Coupled with low interest rates, and the "feeling" of better days, things should start to pickup.

Just my two cents!
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