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09-28-2014, 11:13 PM
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#2
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Draft Pick
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Vancouver, BC
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I don't see how this could end positively for the protesters. China will not back down, there will be no move toward truly democratic elections. The longer term absorption of Hong Kong into the Chinese system is inevitable. The only hope for those who cannot accept this reality is emigration.
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09-28-2014, 11:21 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Calgary
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Just to clarify for people the Occupy protest in Hong Kong is very very different and should not be confused with the ones in North America. Hong Kong was a UK imperial possession for a long time and has been democratic for a very long time under UK rule. As part of a deal with China to hand back HK early, an agreement was signed in 1997 between China, UK and the HK people to allow for the HK to remain a democracy for at least fifty following the handover and, in twenty years, allow for HK citizens to elect their top government official.
China this year reneged on that deal and put in a stipulation to only allow candidates that met Beijing approval onto the election ballot. This is anti-democratic itself and is why Hong Kong people are protesting enmasse against the changes. This is a protest not for wealth disparity but for democracy itself in HK.
It was an entirely peaceful protest with zero weapons nor violence against police but riot police were deployed early on and started using pepper spray, batons and riot shields against the people sitting in when a similar protest/vigil marking the anniversary of the Tienanmen Square massacre a little earlier with similar numbers of people had no such response. The response was extremely heavy handed for Hong Kong protest standards and situation seems to be getting worse atm. Some feel this was the Beijing leadership "sending a message"
I'm from the area and it breaks my heart to see old ladies who are just participating in the sit in protest get pepper sprayed without ever even moving anywhere near the police cordon.
Unfortunately I don't think China is going to back down on this matter. Money talks with the Chinese leadership and at the time of the 1997 handover, HK made up more than 18% of China's total GDP... Now it's closer to 3-4% IIRC. There are also rumors of Chinese troop and armored vehicle mobilization into Hong Kong so I can't see this ending well. I'm going back to HK in a few weeks too.
Last edited by FlameOn; 09-28-2014 at 11:30 PM.
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09-29-2014, 12:08 AM
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#4
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sunshine Coast
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and this is the country we just made a free trade deal with, where they can sue us if we don't build the Northern Gateway pipeline.
Quote:
"It is true that Chinese investors can sue Canada for any actions by the federal government or the B.C. government (or legislature or courts) relating to Chinese assets connected to the [Enbridge] Northern Gateway pipeline," Van Harten said.
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http://www.vancouverobserver.com/new...orce-october-1
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09-29-2014, 09:19 AM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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I have a feeling tonight/tomorrow won't go well for the protesters. As they near the stated major push on National Day, Beijing is going to have to lay down the law before the Macau and others can get rallied.
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09-29-2014, 09:58 AM
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#6
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Wow, crazier than I thought it was. Going back to HK on Thursday, so that'll be interesting to see first hand.
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09-29-2014, 12:50 PM
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#7
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Norm!
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China won't care about the protestors, won't care if they live or die, and certainly won't care about international pressure when they decide to end these protests.
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09-29-2014, 02:34 PM
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#8
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Calgary
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Also headed to HK in 2 weeks time. I'm selfishly hoping things quiet down quick!
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to chemgear For This Useful Post:
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09-30-2014, 01:10 AM
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#11
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Your Mother's Place.
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So... roughly 1 in 3 CPers are travelling to HK soon. Strange.
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09-30-2014, 04:23 AM
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#12
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Franchise Player
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There's at least 1 that's already there...
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09-30-2014, 10:30 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon96Taco
Also headed to HK in 2 weeks time. I'm selfishly hoping things quiet down quick!
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Having been there a few times in the last decade just as a tourist, it's been going down hill. It's not "terrible" but people living there are getting fed up with the literal swarms of people from the mainland coming over every day.
They're the ones pushing around luggage on the crowded streets smashing into people without regard. Not to mention the public urination and defecation during the day. Forget console wars, the internet is lit up with people in Hong Kong and mainland China facing off about public defecation versus shaming people doing it (googling "Hong Kong defecation" links the to the poopshow ).
They've even had a huge issue with people smuggling things like baby formula out of Hong Kong. At times you can't even find it in Hong Kong because there are some many people still scared about the fake and lethal varieties on the mainland.
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09-30-2014, 12:10 PM
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#14
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chemgear
Having been there a few times in the last decade just as a tourist, it's been going down hill. It's not "terrible" but people living there are getting fed up with the literal swarms of people from the mainland coming over every day.
They're the ones pushing around luggage on the crowded streets smashing into people without regard. Not to mention the public urination and defecation during the day. Forget console wars, the internet is lit up with people in Hong Kong and mainland China facing off about public defecation versus shaming people doing it (googling "Hong Kong defecation" links the to the poopshow ).
They've even had a huge issue with people smuggling things like baby formula out of Hong Kong. At times you can't even find it in Hong Kong because there are some many people still scared about the fake and lethal varieties on the mainland.
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I don't disagree with a lot of this, but at the same time, you also have Hong Kong people who have this sense of superiority over Mainland Chinese, and it's annoying to witness. In my experience, Hong Kong people are just as rude and uncaring as Mainlanders. Plus, I guess it's still cosher to make fun of other races in their TV shows (ie. stereotypes against Filipinos and Indians in particular come to mind).
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09-30-2014, 12:19 PM
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#15
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Yen Man
I don't disagree with a lot of this, but at the same time, you also have Hong Kong people who have this sense of superiority over Mainland Chinese, and it's annoying to witness. In my experience, Hong Kong people are just as rude and uncaring as Mainlanders. Plus, I guess it's still cosher to make fun of other races in their TV shows (ie. stereotypes against Filipinos and Indians in particular come to mind).
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i agree with the superiority complex as well......but looking at these past few days it's pretty impressive what the people there are doing. everything from citizens arrests on thieves since the police are obviously pre-occupied, cleaning up after themselves, removing graffiti, outpouring of support/donations in terms of supplies, first aid, food, phones, etc.
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09-30-2014, 12:36 PM
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#16
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Yen Man
In my experience, Hong Kong people are just as rude and uncaring as Mainlanders.
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I've never found people in Hong Kong to be overly rude or uncaring myself and certainly never watched much TV being just the tourist. In fact, I've found people to be rather helpful when I've needed it.
But on my last two trips, I've completely lost count the number of times I've personally had the screaming mandarin "mainlander" try to bypass lines or shoving around in airport queues. Even had a little punk try to get in my face when the crowd called them out for trying to bypass a taxi line at the Peak. Absolutely no shame.
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09-30-2014, 12:41 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chemgear
I've never found people in Hong Kong to be overly rude or uncaring myself and certainly never watched much TV being just the tourist. In fact, I've found people to be rather helpful when I've needed it.
But on my last two trips, I've completely lost count the number of times I've personally had the screaming mandarin "mainlander" try to bypass lines or shoving around in airport queues. Even had a little punk try to get in my face when the crowd called them out for trying to bypass a taxi line at the Peak. Absolutely no shame.
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I guess my experience was when I was riding the MTR. To be fair to Hong Kong people, it might be that they're so fed up with the rudeness of Mainlanders, they kind of subconsciously sink to the same level, and all of a sudden, everyone's rude to everyone else.
I don't disagree with what this protest is about. I think it's a good thing to bring awareness to the situation. I hope they are able to sway Beijing into changing their stances, but I kind of doubt it will. Hope for the best for HK.
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09-30-2014, 12:49 PM
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#18
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Yen Man
I guess my experience was when I was riding the MTR.
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The MTR is great, you really don't spend that much time on it really. It makes our Transit in Calgary look like amateur hour; it's total crap in comparison here.
We got a laugh out of the ladies running the cardboard box gigs outside the stations. Always ready with cheap iPhone cables & cases or with umbrellas at the first hint of rain. And always ready to quickly close up shop and run off if the police happened to be coming by.
The underlying sentiment of the protests has been brewing for a while. I too, also hope they can produce some positive results but am a little cynical about China though.
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09-30-2014, 04:29 PM
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#19
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Has lived the dream!
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Where I lay my head is home...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
China won't care about the protestors, won't care if they live or die, and certainly won't care about international pressure when they decide to end these protests.
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If that was true, they woulda ended them already. Well, the last part especially. Of course they don't care about a few lives, but they do care about a certain level of international attention and pressure.
Not saying we might not see a tough military response, but they do need to walk a fine line here. Besides encouraging other revolts (though doing nothing will probably encourage revolts too) they risk slowing down their economy even further and yes, even international pressure and perhaps penalties.
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09-30-2014, 05:31 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
China won't care about the protestors, won't care if they live or die, and certainly won't care about international pressure when they decide to end these protests.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daradon
If that was true, they woulda ended them already. Well, the last part especially. Of course they don't care about a few lives, but they do care about a certain level of international attention and pressure.
Not saying we might not see a tough military response, but they do need to walk a fine line here. Besides encouraging other revolts (though doing nothing will probably encourage revolts too) they risk slowing down their economy even further and yes, even international pressure and perhaps penalties.
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A tough military crackdown isn't that likely. In Hong Kong, China does not have any of the censorship control that they do on the mainland. The international community, as well as the international press, will be observing. Right now China's great firewall is full of holes with news getting back to the Mainland quite easily despite strong filtering. If a crackdown were to happen the entire world would see it, as well as a good number of their own citizens, which would cause unrest at home and abroad since the protesters have been clean, peaceful and there is zero looting or violence against authorities. What minuscule support the Beijing government had in HK would quickly melt away as well.
Tough military crackdowns will cause two things. Strong international condemnation w/ dire economic consequences and news of the crackdown spreading at home. Both of which are not desirable for China. With so much press and international attention on HK, China cannot afford another crackdown scandal or else they will jeopardize the trade deals that are the life blood of the Communist party.
Recent surveys of Chinese citizens show that the Communist party is only staying in power with their citizens (w/ relatively little unrest) because of the continued strong economic growth and standard of living increases. This is placating some of the Chinese citizen's calls for greater autonomy and democracy. Will they risk cracking down on HK and cause a domino effect of economic downturn and increased domestic unrest? This is something I don't think the Chinese central leadership will risk given the whole amounts of visibility into this area of the world. HK is one of the major economic hubs of Asia after all.
CaptainCrunch, you are right that the Chinese central leadership doesn't care about the HK people... but what they do care about is maintaining their power and appearance of legitimacy governing the Chinese people (while lining their own pockets). A strong crackdown would be horrible for business for them so to speak, especially against peaceful protesters (For crying out loud... protesters are still doing their homework.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29423147). More than likely there will be some kind of negotiated compromise that they'll scale back on very slowly later through subterfuge and intimidation... though it's not like the Chinese government hasn't backed down before. Last decade Tung Che Wah, the Beijing appointed overlord of HK (Chief Executive), was run out of office when over 500k people marched and protested on the street for his resignation. Beijing did nothing to help out their appointed leader then (despite the HK people basically overthrowing him), there is a good chance they will do nothing drastic now. Giving the protesters what they want on the other hand...
Last edited by FlameOn; 09-30-2014 at 06:06 PM.
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