Who do you WANT the Flames Starting Goalie To Be Next Season [*NEW POLL 12·05·17]

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Came to say Miikka, voted Gillies (i.e. he comes into camp and steals the job, not just has it handed to him).

I know Gillies has been the anointed one for a few years but he didn't have a great year in Stockton. Rittich while a year and a half older, had much better stats. Predicting goalies development or even year to year though is often a fools game. I guess it's good we have six goalies signed for the future and it's bad we have none signed and ready for next season.

Just my idea of watching what would happen is to have all six futures fighting for at least one job.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Bishop and Darling, it's the only way to be sure.

Agreed. Let's go all Ripley on this problem.

[robbie111]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Thought I'd put all these goalies stats in one place so it's easier to compare.

This is their averages over THE LAST 4 SEASONS

Obviously some of the younger goalies don't have a 4 season sample size, so for them this is their career to date.

QS% = Quality start percentage, .530 is about average, below .500 is terrible, above .600 is stellar.

I voted Darling as I watched a lot of Chicago games the past 2 seasons and was really impressed with him plus he is 2 years younger than Bishop.

Bishop's contract could be a boat anchor and it worries me. His save pct this year dropped to .910. Every goalie that he played with this season (Vasilevskiy and Quick) outperformed him in save pct by 7 points. .910 is an average goalie. Maybe he can bounce back however if his contract is in the 6-7 million dollar range it would be a huge gamble and could hamstring this team for years to come.

[robertsfanatic]

how does it work if they wait until after July 1 to resign Elliott?
would that have any effect on the compensation.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by robertsfanatic

how does it work if they wait until after July 1 to resign Elliott?
would that have any effect on the compensation.

I can't see it. If he signs with us tomorrow or July 30th he is re-signing with us therefore we give up the pick

[Itse]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Those last two games just came at the worst possible time and are what most people will remember him for. Fact is, this team doesn't make the playoffs without him. Not to mention he's been equally as solid for the past few years in STL, leading the league in most goaltending stats.

First of all, it was three bad games. He let in two softies to start the game, which we eventually lost with one goal.

Second, this is a pattern with Elliott. His game collapses every time in the playoffs. Last season it took longer than usual, but again in the end he was pretty bad in his last three games against the Sharks.

Every single season his SV% in his last three playoff games have been under .900. That's fifteen playoff games out of about 40. This season makes his fifth collapse, in five tries.

No team with playoff hopes should sign Brian Elliott.

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

I can only imagine how bad it's going to be if Calgary goes out and signs a 6-7M goalie and they don't meet the fans' lofty expectations. It's not going to be pretty.

On the contrary. Flames fans have very low expectations for their goalies.

In the regular season Elliott was 40th in SV% and 29th in GAA on a team that was top 10 team in limiting shots against, and people were still fine with him because he had essentially one hot streak. We were already conveniently ignoring his poor season end because of that streak. (He was below .900 in 4 out of 5 last regular season games.)

Two seasons before that we were happy with the duo of Rämö and Hiller, who were both decisively mediocre that season. We only lost patience with them once they both had worst-in-league kind of stats.

In other words, the bar for good goaltending in Calgary is essentially set at about the level of "not the worst guys in the league". Average goaltending is what we call great here. Good goaltending starts religions.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by robbie111

I voted Darling as I watched a lot of Chicago games the past 2 seasons and was really impressed with him plus he is 2 years younger than Bishop.

Bishop's contract could be a boat anchor and it worries me. His save pct this year dropped to .910. Every goalie that he played with this season (Vasilevskiy and Quick) outperformed him in save pct by 7 points. .910 is an average goalie. Maybe he can bounce back however if his contract is in the 6-7 million dollar range it would be a huge gamble and could hamstring this team for years to come.

Quick had a save % of .902 in 12/13, he bounced back to be top 10 in Vezina voting the next three seasons

Rinne had a save % of .911 in 09/10, .910 in 12/13, .902 in 13/14, and .908 last year, yet in between all that he was top 3 in Vezina voting three times and top 10 in HART voting those same 3 years.

Craig Anderson had a save % of .911 in 13/14, the next three years were .923/.916/.926 at 33,34,35 years of age.

Roberto Luongo posted a .907 in 12/13 at 33 years old, followed that up with .919/.921/.922 save % the next 3 seasons.

Varlamov had a .903 save % in 12/13, the next season he was 2nd in Vezina voting with .927

Bobrovsky's last 5 seasons were .932, .923, .918, .908, .931

I could go on and on.

Sure, maybe Bishop will never bounce back, but top goalies have off seasons all the time and quite often bounce back just fine.

[CGY12]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Thought I'd put all these goalies stats in one place so it's easier to compare.

This is their averages over THE LAST 4 SEASONS

Obviously some of the younger goalies don't have a 4 season sample size, so for them this is their career to date.

QS% = Quality start percentage, .530 is about average, below .500 is terrible, above .600 is stellar.




Some takeaways..

Elliot's numbers are sparkling, although he's never shouldered a full starters workload, and how can you trust him after the collapse this year?

Bishop's numbers hold up very well against some of the best starters in the league over the last 4 years. No surprise with 2 Vezina nominations.

Price is a friggin goalie god. No wonder the Habs go from a 100+ point team with him to a lottery team without him.

If Rask, Crawford or Schneider are available via trade, and the price doesn't rip our young core apart, you pay it and get them. Especially Schneider because he's been backstopping a crappy non playoff team for the last 4 years.

Darling's numbers are frighteningly good, and if your scouts are confident he can translate them into a starters role then you might hit a massive home run value wise. It's a gamble though.

Smith is T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E. Stay away Tre please.

What quantifies a quality start? Does this factor in the team they play on? I mean i'm certainly not going to write off a guy cause he played on a terrible team. I mean Darling plays for the Blackhawks vs Smith on the Coyotes, odds are he is going to have better numbers. Look at Elliotts numbers on the Blues compared to the Flames. It plays a big factor.

I'm still fully convinced Smith is the right man of all that are available. If Bishop was signed to a similar contract I would agree with everybody else but he is not and contract term and length is simply to important to ignore. Bishop will want at the very least 5 years, probably more.

Smith usually faces a borage of shots in Arizona so I think he could excel with a team who is better defensively, he hates to lose, is very athletic, can play the puck extremely well, has experience in the playoffs, is signed to the perfect contract that can get us to our next wave of goalie prospects and is HUGE in net. I want a goalie where you can literally see no net.

I hope they take a flyer on him.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by CGY12

What quantifies a quality start? Does this factor in the team they play on? I mean i'm certainly not going to write off a guy cause he played on a terrible team. I mean Darling plays for the Blackhawks vs Smith on the Coyotes, odds are he is going to have better numbers. Look at Elliotts numbers on the Blues compared to the Flames. It plays a big factor.

I'm still fully convinced Smith is the right man of all that are available. If Bishop was signed to a similar contract I would agree with everybody else but he is not and contract term and length is simply to important to ignore. Bishop will want at the very least 5 years, probably more.

Smith usually faces a borage of shots in Arizona so I think he could excel with a team who is better defensively, he hates to lose, is very athletic, can play the puck extremely well, has experience in the playoffs, is signed to the perfect contract that can get us to our next wave of goalie prospects and is HUGE in net. I want a goalie where you can literally see no net.

I hope they take a flyer on him.

I'm surprised it took someone this long to ask, and I figured it would be a Smith advocate who'd end up being the one who did ask.

Starts with SV% greater than average SV% for the year, or at least 88.5% on nights with 20 or fewer shots against

Not sure if that means league average or their own personal average.

[JohnnyB]

Looking at all the stats compiled together, it seems there are a good number of goalies who are virtually equally suited to be number one on a team. Based on that, I'd say the Flames should go with whoever they can get on a good contract and continue focusing on building the team in front of them. There's obviously plenty of talent in net.

[Easeback]

Sign Budaj & Darling!!!

[Hoop27]

Bishop or Smith. Both guys can handle the puck well and with our mobile D that is such a frightening advantage on the transition game.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Wondering if some other advanced stats can help us here.

I favor going with "lets promote an elite backup" approach as this will be a lower cost/shorter term deal leaving us cap space to upgrade 1RW and get the 4D and 5D we want.

But it is difficult sorting out if Darling/Grubauer are for real with the low number of starts and lower quality of opponents such backup goalies would face.

Also need to equal out differences in quality of defenses in front of these goalies.

I wondering how adjusted save percentage and high danger save percentage might help with this debate. Cannot find a site that collects this though?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Zoller

Where is Parsons on this list?

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Typically goalies coming straight out of junior don't fare well in the nhl. I'm guessing whoever made the poll only listed realistic options for starters

Precisely.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Wondering if some other advanced stats can help us here.

I favor going with "lets promote an elite backup" approach as this will be a lower cost/shorter term deal leaving us cap space to upgrade 1RW and get the 4D and 5D we want.

But it is difficult sorting out if Darling/Grubauer are for real with the low number of starts and lower quality of opponents such backup goalies would face.

Also need to equal out differences in quality of defenses in front of these goalies.

I wondering how adjusted save percentage and high danger save percentage might help with this debate. Cannot find a site that collects this though?

[868904]

I think Flames should definitly get a Darling, Pickard, Raanta type, but also acquire a veteran.

One acquisition should be a UFA (Darling, Bishop, Miller), the other thru trade (Pickard, Raanta, Grubauer, Fleury, Halak). Best case scenario for the trade route is to only give up a Mcdonald and Poirer type of package, but if you have to give up Gillies straight up to get the deal done, you do it. Gillies is expendeble if you are acquiring a young goalie in return plus we have Parsons and Rittich in the system.

Flames need two goalies who can potentially be legit number 1's. Ramo/Hiller were really two backup quality goalies. Elliott could argue was a number 1 and Johnson a backup.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I would roll the dice on Bishop. I would bank on him bouncing back. My only worry would be how rich his contract demands would be. If the term and AAV was too much (5 years or more, 6 million or more), then I would rather Treliving acquire Grubauer, Pickard or Korpisalo. Heck, try to acquire two out of those 3.

I like Gillies, but I am not convinced he will eventually be a starter in this league, and therefore have absolutely no qualms about putting up some roadblocks in his way. If he ends up being a great goaltender, then he will force the Flames to trade someone to make room for him. Leaving even the backup job open for him would be a mistake at this point. Let him earn it. There is no guarantee that he will anyways. If he gets there, Flames will simply make the room.

[dying4acup]

For those voicing opinions about the down Year Bishop just had, I understand your point but imagine for a moment:

-you are 1 season from free agency
-you have been nominated for Vezina 2 straight years
-your team is a Stanley cup favorite
- suddenly your team tries to trade you. So close actually, that another team is given permission to talk to your agent
-potential deal falls through, but you know in the back of your mind that you could win the Hart, Vezina and Conn Smythe and there is still little to no chance you will be brought back by your team
-the season doesn't start well, and you are pretty much winding down the clock, or waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of trade
-you are eventually traded, to be a backup for another vezina candidate, and now not playing regularly, thus not so well

I can see how even the best of goalies would struggle under theses circumstances. And by struggle we are talking .910 instead of .920
Not <.900

Now this will cost Bishop. He won't get 7 years. Likely not 6 years either. But likely 5 and at worst 4. No way he has to settle for 3, unless it's over 7.5M

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I can't see it. If he signs with us tomorrow or July 30th he is re-signing with us therefore we give up the pick

You are certain of this?
I understood the third went to St Louis if the Elliott re-signed Before becoming UFA.
I believe you are wrong.

[Alberta_Beef]

I think people forget that for every Talbot or Jones, there is a Scrivens and Bernier. Just because you land a good young backup, doesn't mean they will turn into a quality starter.