BC Election - May 9th, 2017

[rubecube]

BC Liberals defeated in confidence vote. Christy Clark got in one final lie to the public. Promised she wouldn't ask the LG to dissolve the government and call an election and then did exactly that but it sounds like the LG told her to pound sand.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by rubecube

BC Liberals defeated in confidence vote. Christy Clark got in one final lie to the public. Promised she wouldn't ask the LG to dissolve the government and call an election and then did exactly that but it sounds like the LG told her to pound sand.

My understanding is the LG would ask Clark if she felt the NDP/Green could govern and she would most likely give the opinion that they couldn't. The it would be up to the LG to decide if a snap election is needed.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Dion

My understanding is the LG would ask Clark if she felt the NDP/Green could govern and she would most likely give the opinion that they couldn't. The it would be up to the LG to decide if a snap election is needed.

That was the thought, but according to reports she straight up asked for dissolution.

[llwhiteoutll]

The problem the NDP/Greens now have is actually being able to pass legislation if they have to fill the Speaker role from their ranks. They'd need at least one Liberal on board to get their majority.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by rubecube

That was the thought, but according to reports she straight up asked for dissolution.

She legally has to make an official recommendation of either dissolution or forming opposition. The LG then makes her decision.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

She legally has to make an official recommendation of either dissolution or forming opposition. The LG then makes her decision.

And she said she would not ask for another election... and then did ask for another election.

Her party is probably thanking their lucky stars she got told no. If they say yes and it comes out that she asked for it, we wouldn't be looking at a minority government. NDP would just win.

[Fuzz]

So do the Liberals take this opportunity to find a new leader? There is no way this lasts 4 years, so they should get on it ASAP.

[flamesfan6]

Originally Posted by llwhiteoutll

The problem the NDP/Greens now have is actually being able to pass legislation if they have to fill the Speaker role from their ranks. They'd need at least one Liberal on board to get their majority.

Speaker plays tiebreaker so they still have it

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by flamesfan6

Speaker plays tiebreaker so they still have it

I was reading elsewhere the Speaker tradionally/normally votes in favor on most bills initially in order to keep things moving and promote continued debate but votes against them during final reading in favor of the status quo. This would result in continued endless grid lock. I think in this case the best resolution would have been to call a new election.

[taco.vidal]

Originally Posted by flamesfan6

Speaker plays tiebreaker so they still have it

Thats not how it works traditionally. Its not law but doing otherwise would break from how things have worked historically.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Her party is probably thanking their lucky stars she got told no. If they say yes and it comes out that she asked for it, we wouldn't be looking at a minority government. NDP would just win.

I'm not sure that happens. Are there really three seats the NDP picks up if they call an election? There were three ridings that were really close between Liberals and NDP (Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox, Maple Ridge-Mission). The NDP won two of those three.

If the NDP were to get the three more seats needed, it might come at the expense of the two green party seats not held by Weaver. Green voters might switch to NDP, but I'm not sure they do. Weaver seems to be picking up some steam, so they might take some votes away from the NDP in key ridings, giving the majority back to the Liberals. Maybe Liberal voters even realize that their votes do matter, and they need to get out and vote. The Liberals changed their platform in the throne speech, so maybe they get some voters back that were leaning NDP for the first time.

If I was Clark I would have pushed for the election. I don't think it's as clear cut as you do that it would be an NDP majority. I'd wager some hypothetical dollars there is a better chance the Liberals get their majority. I do think Clark should step down, as it gives the Liberals a better chance in the next election, whenever that is. I was hoping Kevin Falcon wanted to run again, but he has said he will not. I don't blame him. His current job has better hours, environment, and pay.

[Zarley]

Do people actually like Clark in BC?

She seems somewhat revolting to me, she has all the worst qualities of a modern politician.

Would the Liberals have won with someone else at the helm?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I'm not sure that happens. Are there really three seats the NDP picks up if they call an election? There were three ridings that were really close between Liberals and NDP (Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox, Maple Ridge-Mission). The NDP won two of those three.

If the NDP were to get the three more seats needed, it might come at the expense of the two green party seats not held by Weaver. Green voters might switch to NDP, but I'm not sure they do. Weaver seems to be picking up some steam, so they might take some votes away from the NDP in key ridings, giving the majority back to the Liberals. Maybe Liberal voters even realize that their votes do matter, and they need to get out and vote. The Liberals changed their platform in the throne speech, so maybe they get some voters back that were leaning NDP for the first time.

I think it'd be hard for the Greens to field enough candidates in time for another election so there'd be a number of ridings in which it would be the NDP ran directly against the Liberals. The Greens could also make a deal to not run candidates in metro Vancouver in exchange for certain platform promises. Either way I think the voters would punish Clark for another election especially since she specifically said she wouldn't ask for one.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Do people actually like Clark in BC?

She seems somewhat revolting to me, she has all the worst qualities of a modern politician.

Would the Liberals have won with someone else at the helm?

Tough to say. Many liberal policies are deeply unpopular and Christy has the majority of bc voters convinced she would say anything to get elected, but on the other side of the coin when is an extremely effective and exhaustive campaigner.

She and the bc liberals have the opinion maker advantage which is a sizeable obstacle for the opposition to overcome, but even with that I don't think de jong as leader gets elected either.

If bc had gone into this vote with Clarkson having stepped aside prior to the campaign I think it would've been a landslide for the NDP.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Do people actually like Clark in BC?

She seems somewhat revolting to me, she has all the worst qualities of a modern politician.

Would the Liberals have won with someone else at the helm?

My problem with Clark is that I can't trust a single thing she says. She's spent almost her entire time as premier saying and doing nothing regarding the housing crisis and then a year out from the election magically has a change of heart. She's someone who tries to bribe voters buy promising to give them back things her and her party were responsible for taking away. Throwing a bunch of NDP and Green platform promises into her Throne Speech was just such a classic Christy move, and there was zero chance she could be trusted to keep those promises.

I can't say that I trust Horgan. He seems like just another politician to me as well, but I know what I'm getting with Clark and it sucks.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by taco.vidal

Thats not how it works traditionally. Its not law but doing otherwise would break from how things have worked historically.

Sure, but convention kind of went out the window once the current Speaker resigned after 7 days in the position once his party lost the confidence of the house. If the Liberals are going to howl about how non-partisan the Speaker's role is, then why didn't their Speaker remain in the position?

Anyway, New Brunswick has had a similar situation to what BC is facing where one party won 1 more seat than the other did. The Speaker just voted along party lines and that government lasted 3 years. There's really no other workable solution.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Sure, but convention kind of went out the window once the current Speaker resigned after 7 days in the position once his party lost the confidence of the house. If the Liberals are going to howl about how non-partisan the Speaker's role is, then why didn't their Speaker remain in the position?

Everyone knew the speaker would resign when the Liberals lost the confidence vote. There are many ndp/green supporters up in arms about this move. It's simply a political move, just like the greens voting against the Liberals bill that would have made them an official party and to ban donations to parties. The greens want both of these things, but wouldn't vote for them because the Liberals put them on the table. That's also just part of politics. People shouldn't start calling out another party, when their party does similar things.

[d_phaneuf]

does anyone think there isn't another election at some point in the next 14 months?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by d_phaneuf

does anyone think there isn't another election at some point in the next 14 months?

I'm giving it 18 months. Greens will wait until the honeymoon period wears off and then jump ship on the NDP to save their own skins.

[Flash Walken]

once the greens get election reform all bets are off