Looks like the Island disputes between Japan and China has created an incredibly tense situation between Superpowers with China looking to push to the Western Pacific. With the situation in North Korea that Trump seems to want to take a hardline stance on with China "Either you do something or we'll deal with it and it will be bad", we are looking at a multi-nation flashpoint with two major super powers involved
Such airborne intercepts are on the rise over the East China Sea, with Japan now averaging roughly two intercepts of Chinese aircraft per day since April of last year, nearly twice as many as in the 12 months prior. In response to the uptick in Chinese military activity in airspace Japan considers its responsibility, JASDF has doubled the number of fighter aircraft at its Naha Air Base, adding a second squadron of F-15Js — the Japanese version of the U.S.-made F-15 fighter jet — in January of last year.
The increased intrusion of Chinese military air traffic into airspace protected by the JASDF, along with the uptick in aerial intercepts, heightens the risk of an accident or misunderstanding between the two militaries — a situation that could rapidly escalate, given the already heightened military tensions in the region. Such an incident, intentional or not, could quickly spiral, potentially drawing U.S. forces in the region into the fray.
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oday tensions in the region are heightened by new catalysts, primarily overlapping territorial claims in the East and South China seas, the lingering threat of military action on the Korean Peninsula, and an increasingly capable Chinese military that seeks to secure its near-abroad rivals through a mix of air and sea power. Neighboring U.S. allies, like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, are forced to look on nervously as China continues to test and improve its capabilities in the western Pacific Ocean and in the seas abutting China to its south and east.
Just some background
The Chinese are expecting to launch their first home built aircraft carrier the type 001a class which is a similar design to their first aircraft carrier which was purchased from Russia and completed. the Type 001a is based around the Kuznetzov class carrier. It is designed to carry 30 J15 fixed wing aircraft which is similar to the SU-33.
This will be the second aircraft carrier for the Chinese.
The third aircraft carrier the 002 which is expected to be completed in 2020 is a departure from the Kuznetzov class and is a complete Chinese design. Its expected to follow the design of US Aircraft carriers which use steam catapults instead of a sea jump. This will allow the Chinese to launch heavier aircraft with heavier payloads. The rumor is that this carrier will be capable of carrying up to 70 aircraft including advanced early warning aircraft and heavier fighter bombers.
The Chinese are also building their new modern type 95 nuclear subs and type 39a modern diesel electric subs.
China is also completing two more type 71 amphibious assault vessels and their type 75 assault ships that also double as a helicopter carrier.
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Which is all to be expected. China is a major global power with legitimate security interests in the Pacific. Hard to imagine them relying on American goodwill to ensure access to vital strategic resources.
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Which is all to be expected. China is a major global power with legitimate security interests in the Pacific. Hard to imagine them relying on American goodwill to ensure access to vital strategic resources.
I was reading a book on coldwar naval history and at the end of it the author mused that in terms of submarines services the American's had jumped into the lead and then basically closed the competition, he said the same thing about aircraft carriers and their technology.
The Russian's and Chinese have always lagged behind the American navy in terms of the class and technology of their boats. The Russians were always about one itineration behind the Chinese more then that.
In terms of Carriers all the combined carriers of the cold war world couldn't stand up to a Nimitz class super carrier. The Russians pretty much gave up fairly early on. The British and the French really didn't try because they knew that they could rely on American carriers if it hit the fan.
But flash forward to now, and there's an argument that the newest generation of Russian subs, the Yasen class SSN is on par with the Virginia class and is possibly a better blue water submarine.
The Borei and new Borei 2 Ballistic missile submarines are considered to be completely state of the art.
the Chinese are also developing their line of 4th generation attack and missile boats.
On the carrier front the Chinese have realized that they don't have to take on the whole US Navy, so with the type 002 and two type 001 plus the largest aircraft carrier in the world in the Chinese mainland that they can reach a rough parity with the American Naval forces in the South China Sea.
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China's leader is meeting with Trump this weekend too, that will be interesting. Would not surprise me if they try to tie North Korea together with their other interests in the region. Something like agreeing to pressure N Korea in return for turning more of a blind eye to their other transgressions lately.
China's leader is meeting with Trump this weekend too, that will be interesting. Would not surprise me if they try to tie North Korea together with their other interests in the region. Something like agreeing to pressure N Korea in return for turning more of a blind eye to their other transgressions lately.
I kind of expect this meeting to be long on US/China trade and the balance there. Trump seems to think that he can get an answer out of China this weekend in terms of NK with his whole you deal with it or we're going to deal with it stance.
I tend to think that the relations between China and the US which are already somewhat frosty will degrade.
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Is there any information on how much aid/military sales that China is giving to N. Korea? At one point it was immense. You'd think that China would see absorbing N. Korea as a great way to expand influence in the region.
Obviously N. Korea cannot be invaded as long as they are bunkered in with ridiculous amounts of weapons. If China were to stop supplying N. Korea with parts, their equipment would eventually fall apart. China could then step in to take control. The risk there might be that another superpower (Russia or the West) would assume de facto control if N. Korea was weakened.
I kind of expect this meeting to be long on US/China trade and the balance there. Trump seems to think that he can get an answer out of China this weekend in terms of NK with his whole you deal with it or we're going to deal with it stance.
I tend to think that the relations between China and the US which are already somewhat frosty will degrade.
Countries don't have friends, they have interests. This is particularly true of China. Relations with China won't degrade over an issue like N. Korea. The much more pressing issue there is Trump's push to return manufacturing back to the USA. China cares about the USA as a market for their products and little else.
Flashpoint china
