Justin Trudeau running for Liberal leadership

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

^ You are of course assuming a) Trudeau wins the nomination (I don't think he will), b) Harper won't screw up (bringing up abortion is a can of kerosene, bringing up other social issues will burn their party down) and c) That the NDP will fade. The conservatives barely got a majority the last time, and with more variables this time around, be praying they can actually hold on to a minority before you start thinking majority.

I totally agree. In my opinion, the Conservatives are really going to have a difficult time of holding on to Majority. I can see a minority, but I don't think they'll get a second run at a Majority. Interesting enough, I don't think it'll matter whether or not Justin is the Leader of the Liberals or not.

Basically if you step outside of Alberta, the ebb and flow of Canadian politics is definitively not in favour with the Conservatives. Counting their minority years, by 2015 they'll be in power 7 years, with Harper as the leader for close to ten years. I see Harper's Conservatives following the same steps as Mulroney's PCs and Chretians Liberals and the general Canadian populace growing weary of them. Obviously, Mulroney went down because of the GST and the Liberals were eventually destroyed by the sponsorship scandal, but it can also be tied to a general electorate ebb and flow.

Is there going to be a massive scandal or policy that breaks the general opinion of the Conservatives? I don't think so, but the small controversies are starting to add up. Things like the Robo scandal, The Abortion Bill, The Online Spying bill, The F-35 Debacle, etc., etc., are eventually going to turn off enough people to make a dramatic switch back to either the Liberals or NDP in Ontario or BC. It also doesn't help that the Conservatives are going to be in a massive Catch 22 situation with the BC pipeline and are eventually going to be put in a tough spot against their base in BC or Alberta.

And as much as I'm not a fan of the NDP, I wouldn't discount them. Unlike the Liberals for the past two elections, the NDP appear to be fully prepared (and funded) to campaign in the same manner as the Conservatives.

Either way, I think 2015 is going to be a fascinating election.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

Will Harper be around next election? I mean realistically he'll have been PM for about 8-9 years by that point, and what reason would he have to stick around? Pretty clearly there are some people who are starting to position themselves to run for his job when he's done as well....I wouldn't doubt we see something in the next couple years from him calling it a day.

I think Harper will be around by the next election. If he's not, the conservatives should be starting the leadership race next year to get the proper amount of face time for the next one.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by blankall

So let me get this straight....

The Liberals got destroyed in the last election, because:

1) they were unable to get any support in the West

To be fair, the Liberals haven't had more than 11 seats from BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan combined since 1993. Picking Trudeau won't hurt that track record.

He'd provide a good competition for the Conservatives though. He could easily take Quebec and fight heavily in Ontario. Names are shallow reason to support a party, but I could see it happening.

On the topic of Carney - I'd be fine backing him regardless of political stripe. Though it's a bit of an unfair comparison, given that the current politicians are in the spotlight more often, I'd trust him more than any party at the moment.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

^ You are of course assuming a) Trudeau wins the nomination (I don't think he will)

Based on all the potential candidate names out there (and I don't include Carney in this lot), I think he has a good chance at winning. The Trudeau name carries a lot of magic in the Liberal Party and I suspect he will get a ton of endorsement from all the old PET cronies who are still around.

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

b) Harper won't screw up (bringing up abortion is a can of kerosene, bringing up other social issues will burn their party down)

Abortion is a non-starter with Harper. As for other social issues, Harper has proven to be pretty middle of the road when it comes down to that. He's a very intelligent man and he knows which side his bread is buttered on. Thinking otherwise goes completely against his track record on social issues.

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

c) That the NDP will fade. The conservatives barely got a majority the last time, and with more variables this time around, be praying they can actually hold on to a minority before you start thinking majority.

The current NDP party is a house of cards and Mulcair is the biggest wildcard out there. The CPC can barely wait to get into a knockdown and dirty election fight with this guy because of all the ammo they have on the guy. As for how well the NDP did in Quebec in the last election... that was a fluke. People just parked their vote there because they didn't want to vote for anybody else. That won't happen again. The NDP will lose seats and the Liberals will probably gain seats in Quebec, but Harper and the Conservatives will probably still win again overall because at this moment in time, there isn't anybody out there that can legitimately challenge him.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Slava

Will Harper be around next election? I mean realistically he'll have been PM for about 8-9 years by that point, and what reason would he have to stick around? Pretty clearly there are some people who are starting to position themselves to run for his job when he's done as well....I wouldn't doubt we see something in the next couple years from him calling it a day.

I would be very surprised if Harper did not run in the next election. He's only 53 years old and even though he's been PM for 8+ years, this is only his first majority government. I don't think he's ready to retire yet. He still has a lot of things he wants to accomplish... ie. Senate reform, healthcare reform, still a lot of work to be done on the immigration/refuge portfolio, etc.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I would be very surprised if Harper did not run in the next election. He's only 53 years old and even though he's been PM for 8+ years, this is only his first majority government. I don't think he's ready to retire yet. He still has a lot of things he wants to accomplish... ie. Senate reform, healthcare reform, still a lot of work to be done on the immigration/refuge portfolio, etc.

Don't forget fixed election dates!

[Bertuzzied]

and $50 billion worth of fighter jets! that are still prototypes!

[GP_Matt]

Regarding the NDP in Quebec, they won a ton of ridings with seat fillers for candidates. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next election. Will they run the same candidates fora second term or try to bring in more qualified individuals. The other parties should be fully recharged with new candidates so the local ridings will be looked at closer and I am not sure how well a candidate who doesn't live in the riding and whose only job has been that of MP will do when they have to campaign.

The other issue with the NDP in Quebec is that they don't really have a strong riding association setup in each riding. I am sure that they are trying hard to develop them, but it is a ton of work and takes a bunch of dedicated locals.

[nik-]

Harper will be running again but won't get another majority imo.

[Jacks]

I remember people saying that Harper would never be PM, that he was unelectable.
I remember people saying the Tories only won a minority as a protest vote.
I remember people saying that the Harper would never win a majority.

Can't see a scenario that Harper wouldn't run in the next election unless there is some sort of real scandal. Not the mini gotcha scandals that the Libs/NDP have been "outraged" about every other week. That election would be the CPC's to lose I think given a choice of Harper, Mulcair or Trudeau. Trudeau is likely to stick his foot in his mouth on a regular basis once the spotlight is on him.

As for the NDP, not having Layton will certainly hurt their vote in the next election. Combine that with Trudeau leading the Liberals and Quebec gets pretty unpredictable IMO.

[Azure]

Hopefully the Liberals gain at the expense of the NDP. Would prefer someone better than pretty boy though.

[c.t.ner]

The National Post has a new poll out.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09...xclusive-poll/

In an exclusive poll conducted for the National Post, Forum found if Mr. Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party and an election were held today, the Grits would win, handily, with 39% of the popular vote.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would come in second, with 32% of the vote, and the NDP — today the Official Opposition and led by Thomas Mulcair — would return to third-party status, with just 20% of the vote.

Of course it's incredibly early, but still interesting nonetheless.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The National Post has a new poll out.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09...xclusive-poll/



Of course it's incredibly early, but still interesting nonetheless.

Its also premature because we know that the CPC will roll out attack ads the moment he wins the vote, or potentially before that even happens.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its also premature because we know that the CPC will roll out attack ads the moment he wins the vote, or potentially before that even happens.

I'd be curious to see how the CPC attack ads will play into the next election. A couple of things.

1) They do have two viable targets (assuming that Trudeau is in the mix) this time around, with Mulclair and Trudeau. So they'll have to split the attack ads at two targets.

2) Unlike Dion and Iggy, people already know who Trudeau is. Dion was easy to pin the weak and crazy environmentalist tag on to. Iggy was also another easy target as although he was well regarded in Academic circles, he came off as too intellectual and out of touch. The "Just Visiting" tag was pretty easy to pin on him.

Trudeau, for as much he's tied to his family name is pretty well recognized across the board in Canada. For the most part, I think people have already tied opinions to him, it won't be as easy to sway those thoughts with attack ads.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I'd be curious to see how the CPC attack ads will play into the next election. A couple of things.

1) They do have two viable targets (assuming that Trudeau is in the mix) this time around, with Mulclair and Trudeau. So they'll have to split the attack ads at two targets.

2) Unlike Dion and Iggy, people already know who Trudeau is. Dion was easy to pin the weak and crazy environmentalist tag on to. Iggy was also another easy target as although he was well regarded in Academic circles, he came off as too intellectual and out of touch. The "Just Visiting" tag was pretty easy to pin on him.

Trudeau, for as much he's tied to his family name is pretty well recognized across the board in Canada. For the most part, I think people have already tied opinions to him, it won't be as easy to sway those thoughts with attack ads.

and another thing, people are just starting to get tired of the conservatives. they've been in power for quite awhile, and since Harper has zero charm or charisma i think his image is just stale by this point. voters want a new choice, as evidenced by the huge support the NDP garnered in the last election. so if the Liberals can get someone half-ass decent to elect the next time around i think they're going to get a huge swelling of support

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I'd be curious to see how the CPC attack ads will play into the next election. A couple of things.

1) They do have two viable targets (assuming that Trudeau is in the mix) this time around, with Mulclair and Trudeau. So they'll have to split the attack ads at two targets.

2) Unlike Dion and Iggy, people already know who Trudeau is. Dion was easy to pin the weak and crazy environmentalist tag on to. Iggy was also another easy target as although he was well regarded in Academic circles, he came off as too intellectual and out of touch. The "Just Visiting" tag was pretty easy to pin on him.

Trudeau, for as much he's tied to his family name is pretty well recognized across the board in Canada. For the most part, I think people have already tied opinions to him, it won't be as easy to sway those thoughts with attack ads.

Ya, I'm surprised that we haven't seen Mulcair ads yet actually. I know that his politics don't play well with the CP crowd in general, so the temptation is to brush him off as it being unnecessary. I would say that is a definite mistake by Harper if he holds that view though. I'm not particularly fond of many of his positions, but Mulcair isn't someone he should take lightly as that message probably resonates better than some expect in the East.

I agree that Trudeau is a known name and such in many ways. I still think that they'll fire out ads with quotes taken out of context and things like that. You can rest assured that when the Liberal leadership has debates that front and center will be the CPC party hoping to catch some miscues that they can frame for their next series of ads.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Rerun

IRC Pierre Trudeau wasn't overly popular in Quebec at the end of his reign.

He wasn't popular amoungst fracophone seperatists and hard nationalists. Amoungst anglophones, allophones, federalists, and immigrants he remained quite popular.

Frankly, I think Justin Trudeau is probably the best choice for the Liberal Party. Seen as generational change, excellent public speaker, buckets of charisma, high likeability factor, a draw as a fundraiser, young enough to grow into the job (As an aside I really don't the meme that he's "too young" he's almost 41 years old... that's middle-aged not young. If he win's he'll be a whole year and a half younger then Harper was when he became leader of the CA and nobody called him young)... basically he has all the attributes of a successful retail politician. Sounds like he has a pretty good team around him as well, hire himself a dynamite speechwriter and he ought to be good to go.

I wouldn't expect him to claim 24 Sussex in his first go around but I think he'd start eating the NDP's Lunch in Quebec, Ontario, and the Atlantic(Maybe B.C. as well) and position them nicely for the election thereafter.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The National Post has a new poll out.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09...xclusive-poll/



Of course it's incredibly early, but still interesting nonetheless.

After seeing how completely f####d up the polls were in our last provincial election, I would trust somebody reading tea leaves more.

Also... its a long time from now til the next federal election. Lots can change. People really aren't all that familiar with JT as to his thoughts, ideas, and experience. That will change over the next 2 years.... and there's the old saying... familiarity breeds contempt.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Slava

I agree that Trudeau is a known name and such in many ways. I still think that they'll fire out ads with quotes taken out of context and things like that. You can rest assured that when the Liberal leadership has debates that front and center will be the CPC party hoping to catch some miscues that they can frame for their next series of ads.

Ummmm.. here's one for a start...

Rich kid who really hasn't accomplished much in his life other than get elected on the coat tails of his fathers's reputation?

So much to work with and so much time to do it.....

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Rerun

After seeing how completely f####d up the polls were in our last provincial election, I would trust somebody reading tea leaves more.

To be fair I felt as though there was a definate movement in the final days that couldn't have been captured in the polls. Although the firm that ran that poll has had a few poor showings lately and it's 3+ years until the next federal election so polls taken now are pretty meaningless.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It also doesn't help that the Conservatives are going to be in a massive Catch 22 situation with the BC pipeline and are eventually going to be put in a tough spot against their base in BC or Alberta.

Nah, they'll just declare it a provincial matter and punt the issue altogether. Or at least they should, it's what I'd do if I were they.

Ya, I'm surprised that we haven't seen Mulcair ads yet actually.

I've seen them... they were pretty mild. Winning the majority (and thus no longer needing to be in perpetual campaign mode) took a lot of bite out of the CPC attack machine. I don't anticipate we'll see much in the way of it until 2015. When it comes for Trudeau I don't see it as being as effective as it's been in the past. I mean the function of their earlier attacks was to define the opponent before he can define himself and Justin Trudeau has been in the spotlight (off and on) since the day he was born so he's a fairly known quantity (more people already have opinions on him) and the default attacks I've seen conservative partisans foist on him have basically been "he's Pierre Trudeau's son" which is a pretty weak attack since it says nothing about him personally.