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Old 07-05-2017, 12:25 PM   #41
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Completely disagree with this. Very seldom do players get rushed to the NHL. Far too often players get pigeon holed based on perceptions rather than opportunity. dobbles pretty much nailed the head-to-head opportunity issue, especially the contract aspect. I think too many players end up getting caught in the numbers game and end up being over-cooked, which is never a good thing (Seriously, such a bad philosophy. Like, does anyone really enjoy over-cooked food, unless you have a predilection to drowning your steak with ketchup?).
You know it's just a turn of phrase right? The philosophy isn't to actually ruin their development (flavor) by letting them work on their game too long in the minors. The idea is that prospects can look good for a stretch and then regress because they haven't worked on their consistency. Hunter Shinkaruk is a good example of someone who can get hot but not maintain a level of play over a full year or from year to year. That's why you let them work it out in the minors until they force the GM to make room for them.

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The biggest thing with development is to keep players challenged and don't give them a chance to plateau. Leaving a player in the minors too long creates a minor league player. It is easier to observe in baseball, as players work through the various levels (rookie ball to triple A), but the intent is to keep moving the player to greater challenges and not allow them to become comfortable at a level until they hit the bigs. I think the Flames have been way too comfortable in allowing players to plateau instead of challenging them and let them learn at the NHL level. You don't learn to deal with the speed of the NHL in the AHL. You don't learn to make better decisions playing against inferior competition. Yes, there is a need for the AHL, and giving players learning opportunities, but to learn how to play against the best you need to play against the best. You don't earn a graduate degree by taking more 100-200 level classes!
I agree with the bolded, but your last sentence doesn't make sense to me. Using your analogy, the guys currently taking the 100-200 level classes are getting "B"s at best. Most of them are still in the "C" range. There wasn't anyone last year on the Heat who was exactly lighting up the league. Those who had very good years will be given a long look at camp to see how they compare to the NHL level veterans. If it's a 50/50 decision between Kulak and Bartkowski, I'm pretty sure they'll go with Kulak since Bartkowski is a known quantity, not likely to get better, and ALSO on a 2-way contract.

Besides which, Kulak and Ferland are both examples of players who were challenged by NHL competition. Ferland largely responded in a lesser role, but Kulak clearly needed some more time in the minors to perfect parts of his game. Maybe a little abbreviated last year for Kulak, but the team clearly thinks he can be an NHLer and Treliving has stated he's ahead of where most guys are at this age. I think you see him stick full time this year as Stone's partner on the 3rd pair.
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Old 07-05-2017, 12:41 PM   #42
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So, how rampant a problem is this? You present the "overcooked" prospect scenario as a league-wide problem, and this would then suggest that there are dozens of bonafide NHL prospects who have been ruined or stunted by their organization's refusal to allow them to develop. please tell me who all these prospects are.
I can't give you a concise list as it is going to vary from team to team and be very subjective. I will say that there are certainly players from every team, at every position, who are never given a chance because of the numbers game. A hanger-on with a one-way contract puts an end to the opportunity that a minor league player needs to show what he's got. A great example was Mark Giordano and opportunity not being there. We were exceptionally lucky the way that whole scenario played out. If he had not gone to the KHL and played against better players he likely would have plateaued and we would have wasted a player with the potential to be something special. You really never know what you have with some of these guys until they are given opportunity.

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I will say that there is a grain of truth to what you are arguing, but it is something that will literally always be a problem, and it is this: players not only need to be incredibly good to carve out a NHL career, they must also be very lucky. I don't doubt that there will always be players in the AHL who could play in the NHL, but there will never be enough open roster spots to satisfy every individual need. Every team will undoubtedly fail to develop all their prospects to their full potential, but that is because there is simply not the space and time to do so. And here is where I do not believe this is a significant problem: the best players will always play, and the difference of the impact made by those players who are less fortunate and those who are mores is fairly negligible. What we are talking about here is the missed opportunity to develop more bottom line, bottom pairing players.
I agree with what you're saying here. Luck does play a big part in things. Imagine if Wally Pipp never got beaned in batting practice? The opportunity for a tall lanky kid to begin the most epic playing streak that took a debilitating disease to end may have never presented itself. We may have never seen one of the greatest players in history because veterans rarely lose their spot to a rookie.

I don't think where a player slots in is necessarily the onus here. Giordano was originally bottom filler, as was Brodie. Players come in and, given opportunity, can show what they can do. What they need is an environment where they can play their game and make mistakes without worrying about being dispatched to the minors. This is the Flames biggest challenge. They have always been bad at doing this. And before you throw out Monahan, Bennett or Tkachuk as an example of otherwise, let me remind you those guys couldn't be dispatched to the minors. If they were demoted they were gone for the year. There was some significant incentive to keep them, which is why opportunity was afforded.

I'm just glad the team appears to finally be holding a few spots open and letting the prospects see that path to the NHL. I sometimes wonder how our prospects feel looking at the history of the team and knowing what is before them. Makes you see why guys will give up the game or turn to other things to help them get through the grinder. Can't wait for camp this fall.
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Old 07-05-2017, 12:46 PM   #43
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As it stands now, there looks to be two blue line openings on the team.

Bartkowski's spot isn''t carved in stone. He's on a two-way deal. A youngster could replace him.
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:01 PM   #44
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I think fans often confuse their perception of opportunity with what actual opportunity is. No doubt, a prospect / player needs to be given a certain amount of chance to actually play at the NHL level to have a true "opportunity" to make it. But if a team is being run well, they can earn a lot of their opportunity and impact the moves a GM makes with their play in the AHL. The experts that run the teams are far more capable of predicting whether a players AHL results should translate into NHL readiness than the majority of us fans can figure out (for many reasons including that most of us don't actually watch much AHL hockey).

We view a lack of NHL sample size for some of these players as a lack of opportunity, but I'm not sure in reality it is. Just because we don't have enough data points or eye tests to know how we feel about a prospects readiness, doesn't mean that the folks running the team also need the same amount of NHL data to make a strong decision about a prospects readiness to compete at the NHL level.
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:11 PM   #45
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...Mark Giordano...
I think you need to do better than that. If you are going to claim that many players are stunted in their development as a result of "overcooking" then you need to identify who these players are. Mark Giordano is possibly one. Where are the others?

Moreover, what is "overcooked" in your estimation? As I see it, a good indicator that a player is ready to make the jump is in how dominant he appears while playing in the AHL. Marcus Granlund had clearly outgrown the AHL, and he was promoted. Michael Ferland was clearly too good for the AHL and he was promoted. So who is there that is languishing in a League that they have obviously outgrown? None of the current Flames prospects, as far as I can tell.

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...I don't think where a player slots in is necessarily the onus here. Giordano was originally bottom filler, as was Brodie. Players come in and, given opportunity, can show what they can do. What they need is an environment where they can play their game and make mistakes without worrying about being dispatched to the minors. This is the Flames biggest challenge. They have always been bad at doing this. And before you throw out Monahan, Bennett or Tkachuk as an example of otherwise, let me remind you those guys couldn't be dispatched to the minors. If they were demoted they were gone for the year. There was some significant incentive to keep them, which is why opportunity was afforded.
I was never going to trot out examples of elite level prospects to counter you opinion of the Flames development shortcomings, but you really only need to look as far as your own example in Brodie.

In 2010 TJ Brodie made the Flames out of camp, before playing a single game in the AHL. He played three games and was sent down for the remainder of the season. He was not given ample opportunity to "make mistakes" at the NHL level, was developed through patience and gradual exposure, and now he is one of the team's best defensemen. Brodie became a full time NHLer when he was 22-years-old.
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Old 07-05-2017, 01:19 PM   #46
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Great topic and an excellent discussion.

To me this topic comes down to one operational rule that I'd insist on if I was head of a hockey operations group ...

Treat every player as a unique case.

I think a team that has a demanded "hot house" plan is just as foolish as teams that play every first round pick every season regardless of how ready they are. Players can be damaged in either circumstance.

Enoch mentioned past administrations and you can't lump them together and I agree with that 100%. Additionally though, you can't hold the fact that x number of kids have jumped straight to the league against the numbers either as it tends to skew things.

Let each kid determine his own path, and stick to it. Don't leave a spot for a kid automatically, that's foolish. But also don't rule a young player out without actually evaluating his individual circumstance.

Ideally you let injuries create opportunities that create the need to move a veteran and make space.

This year they seem to have a hole or two up front and a hole or two on the blueline which is something we haven't seen before (if it holds). To me that says Treliving believes there are multiple players at each position challenging so it doesn't come down to gifting a position.

No rules, treat them as individuals. Don't get caught up in some edict that hurts player development.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:09 PM   #47
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I think you need to do better than that. If you are going to claim that many players are stunted in their development as a result of "overcooking" then you need to identify who these players are. Mark Giordano is possibly one. Where are the others?
In our system, I would actually look at Granlund as another example. Never really got an opportunity to be the player projected or what he showed as a junior player. Was a miscast prospect forced into a role not suited for his game. Rather than allow him to develop into the finished he appeared to be, they kept him in the minors to become a two way center. Another guy would be Wotherspoon. I think his time to make the jump was a couple seasons ago and he was never given the opportunity, and I think that he actually has plateaued.

Just thinking of other players around the league a few names jump to my mind. Joel Armia, Derrick Pouliot, Ty Rattie, Mark McNeil, Dylan McIlrath, Brandon Gormley, etc. You can talk to fans of every team and every single team will have prospect that were kept in the minors for various reasons, many times no room on the roster because of depth veterans. Its a common story.

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Moreover, what is "overcooked" in your estimation? As I see it, a good indicator that a player is ready to make the jump is in how dominant he appears while playing in the AHL.
Over cooked is the point where a player has achieved a comfort level and the challenge may not be there. Again, you don't learn how to his a 90 mph pitch hitting against guys who throw 80. You don't learn to deal with guys with speed unless you play against guys with speed. You need to keep pushing players, and I think the Flames are a team that doesn't push their players enough to achieve or exceed.

Dominance in what though? If you're kept on the farm to do something that doesn't fit your game, then what? You're going to be kept down there to be something you're not. I would say both Baertschi and Granlund were lucky to get out of the Flames system and into one where there was opportunity. Both players were trending to be AHL players in the Flames organization.

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Marcus Granlund had clearly outgrown the AHL, and he was promoted.
And played sparingly in a role really not suited to him, nor with players his skill level. Opportunity matters only if you are given actual opportunity. If you're a middle infielder and you are given an opportunity to play right field, is that really an opportunity? If you're a power

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Michael Ferland was clearly too good for the AHL and he was promoted. So who is there that is languishing in a League that they have obviously outgrown? None of the current Flames prospects, as far as I can tell.
I like the way Ferland was handled, but he's one of a very few forwards that have come up through the system recently. Seems to indicate there is a problem someplace, no? I think that Shinkaruk was definitely held back because of contracts last year. The arrival of Tkachuk likely hurt his opportunities as well, as the team didn't like the idea of have two young guys up front. Again, as you said, luck and opportunity sometimes work against each other.

It's an interesting discussion and I doubt there will ever be a certainty reached either way, as teams seem to go through cycles and have different philosophies in handing their players. Just seems to be a long term challenge for this team.
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Old 07-05-2017, 03:50 PM   #48
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I'm going strictly by the CapFriendly Waivers Caclulator (https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers_calculator ... but it appears the following will require waivers this season:
- Kulak
- Wotherspoon
- Poirier
- Lazar
- Shinkaruk
Lazar is the only one of those players who would likely be claimed off waivers, and it's highly unlikely that he'll be put on waivers.

Kulak might generate some interest if a team suffers some injuries on their blueline during camp, but he's also the least-likely to be waived among the defence prospects.

If Kulak and Wotherspoon both have strong camps, they can be kept as the 6 & 7 d-men and Bartkowski can be sent down.


Poirier and Shinkaruk would have to be lights-out in the preseason to really be a concern for waiver claims. If they do have great camps, Treliving will find a way to fit them on the roster. For a start, Hamilton can be waived.
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Old 07-05-2017, 04:35 PM   #49
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^^ Thanks Getbak. Makes me feel better! ;-)
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Old 07-05-2017, 04:56 PM   #50
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Another thing worth noting is that at that time of year, everyone has players they are trying to pass through waivers. There are a lot of names to choose from on the waiver wire and most opening-night rosters are already fully.
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Old 07-05-2017, 06:56 PM   #51
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Very thorough and well put. The Flames draft record has improved recently however the development side is up in the air due to the team not drafting any defence or goalies for years and hitting on forwards that required little to no development time. I agree this is the year to see if AHLers can graduate with a spot open for a forward, two spots open for a defenceman, and a backup goalie who will be on a short leash.

Finding the balance between calling players up too soon and ruining their development and over cooking them and causing a plateau due to a lack of challenge is tricky. I've been thinking of the following guidelines to follow:

-A winning environment is conducive to development. Build the best team possible through trades and free agency.
-Prospects should never be gifted a spot and should have to earn it by improving the team.
-If a prospect and veteran are of equal ability give the roster spot to the prospect.
-Don't be afraid to put any player on waivers if they are beat out by a prospect. Also, NEVER sign players to NMCs.
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:26 PM   #52
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I have highly enjoyed this thread. Good discussions. Good examples. Agreement and disagreement but focused on the commonality. These are the threads that engaged me to this forum. The silly bitterness and backbiting takes away and we saw none of this. I truly appreciate reading it. Have a great end of your week.
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Old 07-05-2017, 09:39 PM   #53
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The Flames need another NHLer out of the Poirier/Shinkaruk/Klimchuk to step up in a role that will allow the Flames to trade Frolik's contract to recoup some of the 2nd rounders that have been traded and cap space for future Tkachuk/Bennett long term extensions.
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:02 PM   #54
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I didn't notice Jooris on the OP - sorry if he was listed - but he counts as an AHL graduate. Hathaway is at that tipping point as well.

People do argue the case of being 'rushed' vs 'stagnated' regarding the AHL vs the NHL. Most people feel that the AHL is the development league, and that the NHL is where a player who is already developed gets to play in. I think that is mostly right, but not totally.

I think there is a certain threshold that needs to be reached regardless of any existing opportunities on the team. I believe there are 3 thresholds that a prospect needs to reach:

1) Do well enough in the AHL to earn a cup of coffee in the NHL

2) a point in time in their development that they can run a 10 game stretch of games in the NHL before fading

3) a point in time where a prospect can be sheltered enough to remain in the NHL and finish off developing

When I look at some of the prospects, few of them manage to get past the cup of coffee stage. I think Hathaway, Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinakaruk are past this stage. Kulak, Wotherspoon and Shinkaruk seem to fade and end up regressing somewhat after a stretch of games. Hathaway is the one that I think can (and probably should) be given a long stretch.

Jankowski is an interesting one. I personally feel he is 'done' with his AHL time. Sure, he can learn more, but I honestly think that he is at a threshold that can handle an extended look at least, and his defensive acumen will help him from getting buried down the lineup (or 'over sheltered).

The NHL is very much a development league. We experienced it first hand with Backlund, Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, etc., etc., etc.. A player just has to reach that threshold where he is just past that tweener stage. Just an inch beyond tweener stage where he can get an extended look, and not start to consistently fade.

I don't necessarily think that the Flames have been terrible at it. I think what they suffered from the most was poor drafting (and sheer bad luck at times with injuries). For instance, I really thought Negrin was about to start entering the NHL years ago, but a blown knee ended his career. Pelech I thought was borderline serviceable on the bottom pairing, but injuries stalled him (without arguing if he was 1st round pick worthy or not is beside the point). I believe Sieloff suffered from way too many injuries taking away from his development.

I do see some instances of troubling red flags. Morrison was probably the very best right after he got signed, and then he started regressing. That's a troubling red flag for me. There are other examples as well.

However, I also think that now with many more picks in the last few years and a MUCH deeper prospect pool than the Flames have had in decades, we SHOULD start seeing more prospects pushing for the NHL and either being traded away or forcing vets to be traded away. Next 2 seasons will be especially telling. I am not sure about THIS season as the one make that judgment on, but I think a combination of this season and probably the next 2 will be. Poirier, Shinkaruk, Andersson, Kylington, Klimchuk, Jankowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Gillies, Rittich - these are all prospects that are at least trending up and getting close to breaking out. There simply may not be room for them on the team. Many of them will develop, but will not provide an 'upgrade' over a vet, even with the cap in mind. Some of them at least should start transitioning to the NHL at least, even if on another team.

I am never a fan of breaking the drafting and development program into a year-by-year comparison. I think a more fair way is to see trends. I think the trend is going in the right direction, and we will see if it continues.
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Old 07-05-2017, 10:41 PM   #55
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I see your point to a certain extent but specifically with Stone, I feel he gives a kid a chance to take a spot.

You pair a kid up with Stone and they're set up to succeed with a vet that is playing a comfortable position on the depth chart and will be able to cover some of their mistakes. Would you feel more comfortable throwing a kid (Kulak, Anderson, Kylington, etc) out on a Bartkowski fire drill or with Stone?

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Old 07-05-2017, 10:42 PM   #56
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Flames have many players in their organization that we could see take a big step this year!

Off the top of my head, these include up front Lazar, Jankowski, Poirier, Foo, Klimchuk and on the back end Kulak, Anderrson, Kylington, not so sure about Wotherspoon. Will be a fun year to see some young talent establish themselves.
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:12 PM   #57
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I'm going strictly by the CapFriendly Waivers Caclulator (https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers_calculator ... but it appears the following will require waivers this season:
- Kulak
- Wotherspoon
- Poirier
- Lazar
- Shinkaruk

Only Klimchuk seems to be waiver-exempt this season from 2013 or prior. (He's the youngest). Maybe there's an exception with Poirier only 43 games played last season, but I doubt it?

Anyhow - if the above list is accurate, does that not put the Flames in a pickle? I guess on "D" they will likely give Kulak an NHL spot and risk losing Wotherspoon. (Who will likley pass through anyway...in fact I think he already did last season).

But on forward -> there are not enough spots to go around! Are we going to risk losing Shinkaruk and/or Poirier to waivers? Or is the CapFriendly calculator wrong?

Kinda defeats the purpose of "Over-Ripening". In fact, it puts a very strict time-line on just how long you can have your prospects toil in the AHL. No?
the thing is, all the fanbases in the league probably look at their prospect list and think the same way of their minor leaguers...

Fanbases tend to overvalue their own prospects. Other GMs might take a flyer on a kid, but there's a limit to the number of contracts a team can carry i believe, so picking up would means potentially cutting another

that's not to say we wouldn't lose a guy, but if you think back to the training camp cut down day where we lost Byron, i think only 2 players were picked up in the entire league that day...

its definitely something to be aware of, but probably the majority of the teams in the NHL will have a number of similar players in the same situation.
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:57 PM   #58
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While there is definitely some reputation/pedigree favoritism in the league, I think by and large the NHL is very fair when it comes to rewarding talent. Certainly much more than most occupations. Pedigree/reputation will get you some 2nd/3rd looks, but if you don't perform, you are gone, and someone else is taking your place. I think this is especially true when you start moving up the depth chart. I mean, there are probably 2-3 times the amount of capable 13th forwards and 7th defensemen in the minors then there are in the NHL.

So while the very bottom of the NHL roster can largely be determined by being in the right place at the right time, I think the more permanent spots are earned, and I believe its mostly the player's responsibility to earn those spots.

I'm not sure I believe that there is much difference between the development programs of the 31 NHL hockey teams. It's a small community. Everyone knows what everyone else is doing. Most mangers and players have been part of 2-3 or more different organizations. Anything that comes out that is truly innovative and actually makes a difference in performance is quickly adopted by all clubs.

Players have access to coaches for advice, but I believe that development is probably 90% on the player and the rest on situation and other variables.
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Old 07-06-2017, 12:04 AM   #59
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I would say that if Freddie Hamilton was named Doug Phillips or something like that, he'd be in the AHL.
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Old 07-06-2017, 12:11 AM   #60
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I would say that if Freddie Hamilton was named Doug Phillips or something like that, he'd be in the AHL.
I don't doubt that. There is a good chance he'll be there next year anyway. He's probably gotten a couple extra looks due to his name, but he's not performing so I bet he will be gone soon.

Things besides hockey ability get considered for the 13th forward, as there are probably minimum 3-4 guys on every farm club that could fill that role and only one spot on the big club.
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