First Round Draft History for the Decade

[CASe333]

I was looking through the nhl first round draft history for the last 10 years and figured after wasting too much time I may as well also waste yours and share my findings. Here is my summary:

Of the 300 first round picks in the last 10 years, 146 player or around half have played meaningful games in the nhl; 54 qualify as elite players (allstars or players who avg >0.5 ppg). So given this stat you could say you have a 50% chance of getting a nhl player with your first round pick and 18% chance he is a super star. Let's break it down even further.

A). In the last decade, the flames have a fairly bad first round record when we consider players who have since played in the nhl but we should also consider the lack of top ten picks we have had when making criticisms. We have picked 4 good players in the last decade which really isn't that bad:
2003= Phaneuf (#9), 2007 Backlund(#24), 2009 Erixon (# 23), 2011 Baertshi (#13)

B). In the NHL picking 1-3 gets you a player who is guaranteed to play in the NHL (100%) and has ~2/3 chance of being a star.

C). Picks 4-7 gets you a NHL player (80% of the time) with a 1/3 chance of him being a super star.

D). Picks in the range of 8-14 gives you over a 50% of getting a NHL player who plays meaningful time in the nhl and in the last 10 years a bit over a 10% chance he ends up being a super star.

E). The 15-29 picks show a major drop with only ~10% players having played meaningful games and a chance of 3-4% of picking a super star.

F). Finally, picking 30th in the last decade gave you a 0% chance for a regular player or star which is a trend just waiting to be bucked, so go Iggy!

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Awesome. Excellent post CASe333. Really interesting stuff.

Just curious what your criteria for "meaningful career" is? I saw the "superstar" criteria is All-Stars or players who have maintained a >0.5 PPG, which works. Just curious about the other one.

[CASe333]

At this point I considered any player who has played consistently at the NHL level. So a player pre 2008 should have played multiple full seasons at this point. Recent years is a bit hard to judge but the first 7 years of this analysis is based solely on data.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by CASe333

At this point I considered any player who has played consistently at the NHL level. So a player pre 2008 should have played multiple full seasons at this point. Recent years is a bit hard to judge but the first 7 years of this analysis is based solely on data.

Great job. I started doing something similar for the full seven rounds a few months ago and ran out of steam with the project. It definitely takes time but the data it produces is fascinating. Thanks for doing this.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by CASe333

At this point I considered any player who has played consistently at the NHL level. So a player pre 2008 should have played multiple full seasons at this point. Recent years is a bit hard to judge but the first 7 years of this analysis is based solely on data.

Thanks for wasting your time for us all! Very interesting to see that there is a significant advantage the earlier you pick. I've never seen the maths to back it up before.

[Badgers Nose]

Great info, makes me sad though.

[Rhettzky]

Those number are pretty interesting but its too early to call it on the last five to six years and for defenseman and goalies it might be even longer. For example Kadri just broke out and he was drafted in 2009, based on your criteria he would have been considered a bust until this season. Corey Schneider was drafted in 2004 and til now has less than 100GP. So even that crop is still developing. Turris was drafted in 2007 and is only 23 but looking pretty good as well but doesn't meet the 0.5ppg.

So I'd think you would have to go back a full ten seasons to make an assessment. That far back you would be evaluating 28 year olds who are just hitting prime and could make a more accurate assessment of the draft class.

[Street Pharmacist]

When is a players prime exactly? I would guess that it would be around 25.

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

When is a players prime exactly? I would guess that it would be around 25.

I think that sounds right. Probably a range between 24 and 28. I remember seeing a chart that analyzed all leages and it was much lower than I thought it would be.

[CASe333]

Originally Posted by Rhettzky

Those number are pretty interesting but its too early to call it on the last five to six years and for defenseman and goalies it might be even longer. For example Kadri just broke out and he was drafted in 2009, based on your criteria he would have been considered a bust until this season. Corey Schneider was drafted in 2004 and til now has less than 100GP. So even that crop is still developing. Turris was drafted in 2007 and is only 23 but looking pretty good as well but doesn't meet the 0.5ppg.

So I'd think you would have to go back a full ten seasons to make an assessment. That far back you would be evaluating 28 year olds who are just hitting prime and could make a more accurate assessment of the draft class.

Yes, I do agree with most everything you are saying here. I do admit to using a much more flexible criteria for recent years and for goalies which results in more judgement calls (higher error) rather than assessments based solely on data. For example for goalies, despite playing only around 100 games thus far I do consider Rask and Schneider to be star players and Bernier who has only played ~60gp to be a "regular". Of course though there is a good chance Bernier might still turn out to be a star goalie too.

The first 5 years of the decade is pretty easy and I don't think there would be many arguments on how I classified players. It does definitely get a lot harder in the last few years but I still think you can make a pretty fair assessment up until and even including 2009. Kadri turns out to be an excellent example. Based on my criteria he definitely would be considered a regular player at this point since he played the full season. In his first full season (albeit shortened) since he scored at a 0.92ppg pace I also consider him to be a super star. Certainly this is a stretch at this point but I think making projections based on a limited amount of data like this is fair for assessing recent years.

Take a look at the 2009 draft. I'd be curious how many players you think could still surprise as either a regular or star player? Sure there are going to be a couple late bloomers but I think the error at this point would only be 3-6 players so less than 10-20%.

To give you a better idea of how I used some judgement calls along with the criteria I previously explained here is my 2009 list of players who have played enough for me to consider as regulars (where bold = star). Let me hear your criticisms:

Spoiler!

1). John Tavares
2). Victor Hedman
3). Matt Duchene
4). Evander Kane
5). Brayden Schenn
6). Oliver Ekman-Larsson
7). Nazem Kadri
10). Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
11). Ryan Ellis
13). Zack Kassian
14). Dmitri Kulikov
16). Nick Leddy
19). Chris Kreider
23). Tim Erixon
24). Marcus Johansson
25). Jordan Caron
26). Kyle Palmieri

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by CASe333

Take a look at the 2009 draft. I'd be curious how many players you think could still surprise as either a regular or star player? Sure there are going to be a couple late bloomers but I think the error at this point would only be 3-6 players so less than 10-20%.

To give you a better idea of how I used some judgement calls along with the criteria I previously explained here is my 2009 list of players who have played enough for me to consider as regulars (where bold = star). Let me hear your criticisms:

1). John Tavares
2). Victor Hedman
3). Matt Duchene
4). Evander Kane
5). Brayden Schenn
6). Oliver Ekman-Larsson
7). Nazem Kadri
10). Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
11). Ryan Ellis
13). Zack Kassian
14). Dmitri Kulikov
16). Nick Leddy
19). Chris Kreider
23). Tim Erixon
24). Marcus Johansson
25). Jordan Caron
26). Kyle Palmieri

Sure but like I said, up until this season you would have had Kadri in the bust realm based on this and he was drafted 4 drafts ago. Plus going back to 2009 represents 40% of your sample size. And even then, the kids from that draft are all only 22 years old. So it's much too early to tell what their career is going to look like.

Brayden Schenn, for instance, you have listed as a regular and a non-star but he has only played 1.5 NHL seasons and has only gotten better. So you can't say where his output curve is because you've only seen two points on it, but they do point up for now.

8) Scott Glennie - Only 2 full pro seasons under his belt 51pts in 100 AHL games.
9) Jared Cowen - This D-man played 82 games (17 points) with the Sens last year and was sidelined by an injury this year that forced him to miss the entire season. Even still he returned at the tail end of the season and has played 2 post season games with the Sens this year.
12) Calvin de Haan - Had a decent start to his pro career in the AHL but was injured early this year and missed the season.
15) Peter Holland - Had a great couple of seasons in the AHL and played half the season for the ducks this year garnering 5 points in his first 21 NHL games.
17) David Rundblad - Has played good in the AHL and has been getting a few chances with the Coyotes.
18) Louis Leblanc - Only 2 pro seasons so far. Not great numbers but too early to tell.
20) Jacob Josefson - Has been between the AHL and NJ Devils for the last 3 years.
21) John Moore - Has played most of this season and is currently playing with the Rangers in the playoffs.
22) Jordan Schroeder - AHL numbers have been steadily climbing and broke into the NHL just this year with 31 games and 9 pts.
27) Philippe Paradis - Has been all over the place and kind of seems like an agitator based purely on his stats.
28) Dylan Olsen - Point totals have been steadily climbing in the AHL but nothing impressive so far.
29) Carter Ashton - First full pro season was last year and has okay AHL numbers but a terrible debut with the Leafs last season.
30) Simon Despres - Played most of the season with the Penguins this year and has played in the NHL playoffs this year.

So out of the 13 players that don't make the cut you have 8 defensemen (out of 12 overall) and 3 players that are playing in the playoff this year. Plus most of the guys you left off stayed an additional year in the minor leagues and only have 2 full pro seasons in so far.

I'm not going to say that they are all going to be full blown regulars because they probably won't but, like I said before, they are only 22 years old. IMO, that's too young to base such a large portion of your sample size on.

[CASe333]

Yep, I agree with pretty much everything you are saying. My point though is that although you might have to wait 5-6 years to make a 100% accurate assessment you can still make a pretty good assessment (ie. > 80% confidence rating) for recent years based on our limited data. Of the players you listed I would guess 3-6 more players might make it. So averaged with the first years which have little error the amount of error overall isn't that large.

I will definitely admit 2011 and 2012 are still completely crapshoots and I thought about not including them because of this...

[Rhettzky]

But 22 years old is less than the age players enter their prime years. So my only point is that you said 50 percent become regulars and 18 percent become superstars by looking at a sample size that does not include the prime years for 60 to 80 percent of players in it.

[flamesfan55]

Originally Posted by CASe333

Yes, I do agree with most everything you are saying here. I do admit to using a much more flexible criteria for recent years and for goalies which results in more judgement calls (higher error) rather than assessments based solely on data. For example for goalies, despite playing only around 100 games thus far I do consider Rask and Schneider to be star players and Bernier who has only played ~60gp to be a "regular". Of course though there is a good chance Bernier might still turn out to be a star goalie too.

The first 5 years of the decade is pretty easy and I don't think there would be many arguments on how I classified players. It does definitely get a lot harder in the last few years but I still think you can make a pretty fair assessment up until and even including 2009. Kadri turns out to be an excellent example. Based on my criteria he definitely would be considered a regular player at this point since he played the full season. In his first full season (albeit shortened) since he scored at a 0.92ppg pace I also consider him to be a super star. Certainly this is a stretch at this point but I think making projections based on a limited amount of data like this is fair for assessing recent years.

Take a look at the 2009 draft. I'd be curious how many players you think could still surprise as either a regular or star player? Sure there are going to be a couple late bloomers but I think the error at this point would only be 3-6 players so less than 10-20%.

To give you a better idea of how I used some judgement calls along with the criteria I previously explained here is my 2009 list of players who have played enough for me to consider as regulars (where bold = star). Let me hear your criticisms:

Spoiler!

1). John Tavares
2). Victor Hedman
3). Matt Duchene
4). Evander Kane
5). Brayden Schenn
6). Oliver Ekman-Larsson
7). Nazem Kadri
10). Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
11). Ryan Ellis
13). Zack Kassian
14). Dmitri Kulikov
16). Nick Leddy
19). Chris Kreider
23). Tim Erixon
24). Marcus Johansson
25). Jordan Caron
26). Kyle Palmieri

I enjoyed your work until you bolded Kadri. This is the first year he has done anything and you already have him as a star. Yet Hedman has been solid for years in Tampa and you don't consider him a "star"???????

[JiriHrdina]

Yeah I think Hedman is a star, or certainly will be. Not flashy - but maturing into a legit top pairing guy.

[Rhettzky]

I felt kind of bad for calling your post out but then providing nothing of value so I did a bit of research to try and add some value.

Acccording to THIS article, the peak age of an NHL hockey player is 25 and the peak range is about 23-26 years old. So if we use this range we could start looking at drafts from 7 years ago to evaluate the first round, which puts us at around the 2006 entry draft to look at players that are 25 years old right now. So here’s a breadown of draft years from 1997 to 2006.

BST = Busts
REG = Regular Players
STA = Stars
PLA = Regular Players and Stars Combined
Brackets = Stats for top ten of the draft year

1997: 12 BST, 5 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 50%, STA = 30%
(2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%)
1998: 7 BST, 13 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 74%, STA = 26%
(1 BST, 5 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 40%)
1999: 16 BST, 8 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 43%, STA = 14%
(4 BST, 4 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 30%)
2000: 13 BST, 10 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 57%, STA = 23%
(4 BST, 3 REG, 3 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30%)
2001: 12 BST, 10 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 27%
(4 BST, 1 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 50%)
2002: 8 BST, 13 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 73%. STA = 30%
(1 BST, 3 REG, 6 STA: PLA = 90%, STA = 60%)
2003: 4 BST, 9 REG, 17 STA: PLA = 87%, STA = 57%
(0 BST, 2 REG, 8 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 80%)
2004: 10 BST, 10 REG, 10 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 33%
(3 BST, 3 REG, 4 STA: PLA = 70%, STA = 40%)
2005: 12 BST, 9 REG, 9 STA: PLA = 60%, STA = 30%
(2 BST, 3 REG, 5 STA: PLA = 80%, STA = 50%)
2006: 10 BST, 6 REG, 14 STA: PLA = 67%, STA = 47%
(0 BST, 3 REG, 7 STA: PLA = 100%, STA = 70%)

Total: 104 BST, 93 REG, 92 STA: PLA = 64%, STA = 32%
(21 BST, 30 REG, 49 STA: PLA = 79%, STA = 49%)

Telling a bust from a regular was easy for the most part but making a call of regular vs star was harder in some cases and a little subjective. But for 95% of the picks it was pretty cut and dry. Check Hockey DB for the different draft years.

There is a drop off when picking in the top ten compared to the rest of the draft, but where the huge drop comes in is from picking a star player. In the top ten you have an average of a 49% chance to get a star player whereas, in the bottom 20 picks in the draft that chance drops to 23%.