[Signing] Oilers sign Draisaitl (8 yrs, $8.5 mil AAV)

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

Bear won the WHL defenseman of the year, Jones played the most minutes for the US at the WJHC, Yamamoto had the most goals as an 18 year old in the 'dub
not exactly bums

What a stretch. This exactly why I say you have to wait for these kids to get to the pros to see what their potential really is.

Bear winning WHL defenseman of the year is no great accomplishment. In fact, Bear's numbers are strikingly similar to that other future Norris winner, Brenden Kichton. Interestingly, they are also similar is size and style of play. I wouldn't hold that trophy up as anything of note as there are as many failures as there are successes who have won the trophy. Consider the following: Brenden Kichton, Stefan Elliott, Tyson Barrie, Kris Russell (twice!), Jeff Woywitka, Christian Chartier, and Micki Dupont have all been winners since the 2000. There have been winners like Provorov, Theodore, Alzner, and Phaneuf (twice!) that have won as well, but those guys were all 1st rounders, not a guy drafted in the 5th round.

I also wouldn't get all excited about someone getting the most ice time in a hockey tournament. What a horrible metric to measure potential by.

Yamamoto is going to be an interesting player to watch develop. He's got skill, but he's has he got elite skills. His size is going to make his game hard to translate to the pros. If he were an elite level skater who could slip and slide past defenders like Gaudreau, I'd be a little more excited about him. Size is a massive detractor until he steps up and proved he can play against men. He's got a very long way to go. Kailer was a swing for the fences by the Oilers. We'll see if it carries out of the park or is just a pop up to the infield.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by New Era

What a stretch. This exactly why I say you have to wait for these kids to get to the pros to see what their potential really is.

Bear winning WHL defenseman of the year is no great accomplishment. In fact, Bear's numbers are strikingly similar to that other future Norris winner, Brenden Kichton. Interestingly, they are also similar is size and style of play. I wouldn't hold that trophy up as anything of note as there are as many failures as there are successes who have won the trophy. Consider the following: Brenden Kichton, Stefan Elliott, Tyson Barrie, Kris Russell (twice!), Jeff Woywitka, Christian Chartier, and Micki Dupont have all been winners since the 2000. There have been winners like Provorov, Theodore, Alzner, and Phaneuf (twice!) that have won as well, but those guys were all 1st rounders, not a guy drafted in the 5th round.

Kichton and Chartier won the award as 20 year olds. I wouldn't use them as a comp just as I wouldn't use guys who won as 18 year olds(Provorov).

The common thread among 19 year olds who won it is that they all at least played NHL games. Bear's stock is a lot higher today then it was on draft day.

It doesn't make him a future star, but it makes him a legit NHL prospect.

[JohnnyTitan]

I HATE the Ducks, but now I have two reasons to thank them:
1) Beating the Oilers in the 2017 playoffs
2) Letting Dr. Drai light them up (despite losing) to greatly increase his AAV!

The Oilers will lose RNH for nothing. And the fans will say it's a great Chia move. But any way you look at it, the return for the three #1s and Eberle is disgusting and poor poor asset management.

Ethan Bear -> There's a reason he got drafted where he did. Too slow. Remember Danny Svret? LOL

Prediction for Yamamoto:
- We won't have to wait long to see if he's the "Real Deal". The Oilers will be forced to rush him into a top-6 role in just 14 months
- He won't be ready and his confidence will be crushed...but he'll play enough games to burn a year off his ELC
- By year#3 he'll get some time with McDavid and score a bunch of points based on that.
- Will go on one 7-game streak where he looks good.
- Signs a contract > $8.5M per season in 2022!

[JohnnyTitan]

Also like to add that even if the cap does go up....every team gets to use the newly found cap space.

So we can speculate on what the future number will be all we want, it's still extremely advantageous for teams to have excellent "value" contracts in place. The cap increasing is not a free-pass for bad cap management. It might save some cap-crunch, but it will still be tougher for cap-strapped teams to compete.

And of course it's just foolish to bet your future on big cap increases.

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

whatever....prove it on the ice and quit coming up with excuses.

This is really rich coming from an Oiler fanboy. This is the same fan-base that consistently projects players to be stars (Bear, Jones, Yamamoto) before they've stepped onto the NHL ice. This is also the same fan-base that claims, every off-season that their team is on the verge of a dynasty (see 2006 to present). This is the same fan-base that has run the gamut of excuses from disgruntled wives, injuries, referees, league conspiracies and weather.

This is a fan-base that, despite having an historic run in ineptitude that would make the Washington Generals blush, continues to not only come up with excuses, not only project their upcoming players to be stars, not only inundate every NHL off-season with "it's not a matter of when but how many Cups" but to also spread their deep seated insecurity on a rival teams website with "but...but...but" deflections of any criticism.

Get over yourself dude.

[CaptainCrunch]

So AO comes on with the Bear, Caleb, Yamamoto or whetever his name is are going to be these sure fire awesome stars.

I'm sure we heard the same stuff from him with Shremp, Eberle, Yak and the rest of the cast of millions of failed prospects and players that have thrown on that Ratty thing that the Oilers call a jersey.

[Iniggywetrust]

This makes me love Brad the wizard even more. Has Leon shown more than Gaudreau did before he signed his contract? I don't think so. Johnny was the main threat on this team and he signed a contract worth 2+ million less just last year.

The Oilers continue to fail at learning from their mistakes. Over paying RFA's and then expecting them to live up to the expectations.

[djsFlames]

Man I haven't been to hf oil once since the playoffs. What's with these Oiler fans practically living on our board, meanwhile yapping and boasting, leaping into discussions to get jabs in and claiming inferiority complexes? It's like we have our own Edmonton apologist CP police monitoring the threads. It's quite amusing.

Haha and then saying "quit talking prove it on the ice"

Oh my. That is rich indeed. The hypocrisy is outstanding.

Absolutely no self awareness. Like fan like city.

[CMPunk]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So AO comes on with the Bear, Caleb, Yamamoto or whetever his name is are going to be these sure fire awesome stars.

I'm sure we heard the same stuff from him with Shremp, Eberle, Yak and the rest of the cast of millions of failed prospects and players that have thrown on that Ratty thing that the Oilers call a jersey.

When AO was asked who were the next best prospects for the Oilers, he listed those three. Unless I missed it, he never claimed they were "Sure fire awesome stars" just the next 3 guys people were talking about up there.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Fire

I think it would have moved Monahan's $6.375 contract to around $6.8. If Gaudreau signed an 8 year deal it would have been for around $7.5 imo.

That'd require:

Monahan
Year 8 - 9.775M

Gaudreau
Year 7/8 - 9.750M each

I think each of those is 1.5-2.5M too high.

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dude showing you metrics of shot and scoring chance attempts against in several categories in the top ten is proving it.

Bringing up Bouwmeester and dropping cliches like prove it on the ice is the excuse and goal post moving at the moment.

I dunno Bingo... you've listed evidence both empirical and statistics. AlbertaOilers72 however had a great rebuttal with "whatever". Right now the debate is even.

[Bingo]

Personally I think it would be a better tactic to just deal with the deal being a bit on the stretch side for value then just defend all things Oiler.

I know plenty of Oiler fans and most think it's anywhere between 500K and 2M too high, and they're worried about it.

The Oilers took a calculated risk to get the most term possible. Why defend that by selling the deal as a good one?

They did well to pay Klefbom as a #3 defenseman when he was a #5 defenseman, and have been rewarded by the player becoming a #2.

This is a higher stakes version of the same bet. But this time he has to be a first line center when he's only really produced for one year. If he becomes a perennial top ten scorer and the cap goes up they win. If he's less than that and the cap doesn't go up they lose.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by JFK

I dunno Bingo... you've listed evidence both empirical and statistics. AlbertaOilers72 however had a great rebuttal with "whatever". Right now the debate is even.

There is truth on many sides of this debate, many sides.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So AO comes on with the Bear, Caleb, Yamamoto or whetever his name is are going to be these sure fire awesome stars.

I'm sure we heard the same stuff from him with Shremp, Eberle, Yak and the rest of the cast of millions of failed prospects and players that have thrown on that Ratty thing that the Oilers call a jersey.

How could you forget how Nilsson, Gagner, and Cogliano were the "new" kid line destined for greatness, with Omark about to bring his youtube cred to the show?

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

So it was almost exactly a decade ago that the oilers first fata'ed the second contract. They signed a big strong can't miss future star in Dustin penner to a then dumb contract. Didn't work out. Worse, it screwed up second contracts for the whole league as it reset the bar for all.

Dummies did it again. As much as I think the draisaitl contract is bad for the oilers, the worst part is it'll reset the bar for every good young player yet again. Last year a rock star 2nd contract was ~40m. Now it's going to be ~70. Tkachuk might be the highest paid flame in 2 years.

Dummies.

[Enoch Root]

Leon Draisaitl makes more than 25% more than any player on the Flames, including UFA contracts.

25% more.

He has 137 career points.

lol

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

How could you forget how Nilsson, Gagner, and Cogliano were the "new" kid line destined for greatness, with Omark about to bring his youtube cred to the show?

Lets be fair when you draft as many future superstars as the Oilers do, it's hard to keep up with them all. I blinked and must've missed the end of the MA Pouliot/Schremp dynasty. Nilsson/Gagner/Cogliano, that was another good dynasty. How many cups did they coax out of the Hall/Yakupov/RNH dynasty? Its slipping my mind for some reason

[chopper89]

I'm not too down on it, as it is almost exactly the same game the Flames played with Johnny Gaudreau last year.

They took a gamble by paying up, based on a pretty small sample size. Gaudreau had one more point in 2015-2016 (78) than Draisaitl had in 2016-2017, but both players turned that great season into long-term lucrative deals. I get JG didn't have McDavid on his line, etc. but the gamble is similar by both clubs.

Drai signed for almost $2MM more, but admittedly, is a big centerman (which usually demand a premium), has shown he can play with their franchise cornerstone, and as much as it hurts- showed himself a lot better in his limited playoff time than JG did.

So while it could blow up on Edmonton (and as a Flames fan, I'm obviously sorta hoping it does!), I think the deal makes sense for them as a valid gamble and is pretty much in line with recent deals done by others, here and elsewhere. Too early to call yet.

[You Need a Thneed]

Really late into this conversation, but this is pretty much exactly the contract we were all hoping another team would get Drai to sign an offer sheet at, to screw the Oilers. Then the Oilers sign him at that amount.

Going into the summer, Oilers fans hoped they could get the two signed for 16M, I figured it would be closer to 20M. 21M between the two is a Flames Fan's dream. They will essentially have to trade away RNH to get nothing in return to make the cap situation work for the 2018-19 season.

I'm not expecting McDavid or Drai to slip, but they are both also not likely to really improve their production at this point - and shedding Eberle and RNH for cap space hurts their depth, which was already somewhat of a problem. Talbot is probably likely to slide in production, even a little bit. It doesn't take much slippage from any of those players to turn the Oilers into a team fighting to get into the playoffs, never mind contending for anything.

I also think good teams will have developed anti-McDavid Strategies as well, so while McDavid will continue to be good, even elite, he will struggle to constantly maintain the same level as they got out of him last year.

Honestly, barring some minor miracles, the Oiler's window closes after this next season, and they are objectively worse this coming season than they were last season. MAYBE the window could open up again several years down the road if the cap goes up enough. Chicago has 2 proven players making that much together, and have struggled in the playoffs. The Oilers have 2 unproven players making that same amount - it's not likely to work out for them.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by chopper89

I'm not too down on it, as it is almost exactly the same game the Flames played with Johnny Gaudreau last year.

They took a gamble by paying up, based on a pretty small sample size. Gaudreau had one more point in 2015-2016 (78) than Draisaitl had in 2016-2017, but both players turned that great season into long-term lucrative deals. I get JG didn't have McDavid on his line, etc. but the gamble is similar by both clubs.

Drai signed for almost $2MM more, but admittedly, is a big centerman (which usually demand a premium), has shown he can play with their franchise cornerstone, and as much as it hurts- showed himself a lot better in his limited playoff time than JG did.

So while it could blow up on Edmonton (and as a Flames fan, I'm obviously sorta hoping it does!), I think the deal makes sense for them as a valid gamble and is pretty much in line with recent deals done by others, here and elsewhere. Too early to call yet.

Johnny had two really good seasons under his belt when he signed. He also had 9 points in 11 playoff games prior to signing. The Draisatl comparison is not relevant