Rube's 2016 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[Sylvanfan]

The early line I saw on San Diego and Tennessee was the Chargers +5.5. I think that one is 2 points too high there. Tennessee plays pretty well on the road and San Diego is coming off a pretty tough game against the Broncos.

I would take Denver as a moneyline play over the Raiders too. Raiders have been outstanding on the road, but not so much at home. It's also a game where they could make a real statement, and I think in that type of game I like the experienced group in Denver who have a history of winning these types of games to hold serve. The Raiders are still a learning group and I think a loss here is part of that learning for the rematch.

[rumy]

Originally Posted by DropIt

Seeing ATL -3.5 to TB as well right now. TB defense just gave up 500+ yards to Carr, I think the Falcons can do some damage there as well

Good call on this

[rubecube]

And the losses keep piling up. Now 32-42-2 for the year. Well on pace to have my worst year on record I think.

PHI +2.5
KC -7.5
MIN -6
DAL -7
DEN +2
SD -4

[Sylvanfan]

Jump on the Bucks if you can. Marcus Peters is out for KC. Chiefs offence sucks and they don't have their top defensive player. No chance they can coverify 4 points against a healthy Tampa team.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Jump on the Bucks if you can. Marcus Peters is out for KC. Chiefs offence sucks and they don't have their top defensive player. No chance they can coverify 4 points against a healthy Tampa team.

You are WAY to hard on your team Syl...lol.

Chiefs gets Justin Houston back today...at home against a QB that is prone to mistakes under pressure.

If Smith takes care of the ball this should be a walk for KC.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

You are WAY to hard on your team Syl...lol.

Chiefs gets Justin Houston back today...at home against a QB that is prone to mistakes under pressure.

If Smith takes care of the ball this should be a walk for KC.

1 point game at the half and Tampa has moved the ball almost at will.

KC usually make shrewd adjustments at half time but I think they are in tough to win today let alone cover that many points. Old team that's pretty beat up and looking ahead to next week's game.

[Sylvanfan]

I don't care to bet too much on Thursday night games, but Dallas to cover 3 points here is enticing. Minnesota with a lackluster offence to me seems like a team that Dallas will be able to handle. Anyone in the league is in tough to run with the Cowboys offensively and the Vikings aren't exactly a team who can keep up offensively. Put it this way....Minnesota will stop themselves on offence as much as Dallas will....Minnesota's defence will have to stop Dallas every time.

[Sylvanfan]

Well Rube you look good on 5 of your 7 futures bets and a 1-3 finish for Denver with their schedule isn't unthinkable. Even the Bills can still get you a push.

[rubecube]

As some of you know from my post in the NFL thread, I'd kind of flaked on this thread due to some personal matters. Anyways, I'm back this week, but I wouldn't necessarily trust these picks as I kind of just threw them together.

TB +7
NYG -3.5
IND +5
HOU -5
ARI -3
NE -3
ATL -13

[Sylvanfan]

I like the Tampa pick the most of that group.

I would take Oakland to cover 3.5 against a beat up Charger squad.

I also think Cleveland should cover 10.5 against the Bills today.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

As some of you know from my post in the NFL thread, I'd kind of flaked on this thread due to some personal matters. Anyways, I'm back this week, but I wouldn't necessarily trust these picks as I kind of just threw them together.

TB +7
NYG -3.5
IND +5
HOU -5
ARI -3
NE -3
ATL -13

Looks like you went 5-2 last week...better than my 1-2. You also have a shot at getting your futures bets on Denver and Buffalo to work out in your favor. I imagine you'll be hoping for Andy Reid to stay out of his own way on Christmas night for you.

[Sylvanfan]

After grilling me for weeks about what I want for Christmas snd me saying nothing. My Mom just suggested to me that she give me money for Christmas so I can gamble on football.

[rubecube]

Anyone know of any good sites for props for the big game? I use Pinnacle for my normal gambling needs but I always find their Super Bowl props to be lacking some of the zaniness of other places.

[Jason14h]

bet 365 is usually good

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

bet 365 is usually good

I looked at some of these earlier in the week and man there are some easy bets to make in my eyes,

LeGarrette Blount is 60.5 over/under for rush yards as an example which i think is a slam dunk over... -120.00 on the ML.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

LeGarrette Blount is 60.5 over/under for rush yards as an example which i think is a slam dunk over... -120.00 on the ML.

Really? I'd take the under on that with Lewis and White also in the backfield.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Really? I'd take the under on that with Lewis and White also in the backfield.

Yeah that is what many are saying but after listening to LaCanfora this morning he sold me.

The one way to keep the Falcons from putting up 35+ points is to keep them off the field. He believes the Pats are going to go jumbo on offense for a good chunk of the game and just try and punch Atl in the mouth.That means Blount over the other 2 guys. Then he figured that once that was established, the Pats go play action and Brady starts to carve them up a bit.

All it takes is a couple 15 yd runs and a half dozen 5-6 yarders and he is over the number. Like I said, Im sold. I can see how it could go South as well though if Atl does get out front early and somewhat big.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yeah that is what many are saying but after listening to LaCanfora this morning he sold me.

The one way to keep the Falcons from putting up 35+ points is to keep them off the field. He believes the Pats are going to go jumbo on offense for a good chunk of the game and just try and punch Atl in the mouth.That means Blount over the other 2 guys. Then he figured that once that was established, the Pats go play action and Brady starts to carve them up a bit.

All it takes is a couple 15 yd runs and a half dozen 5-6 yarders and he is over the number. Like I said, Im sold. I can see how it could go South as well though if Atl does get out front early and somewhat big.

Interesting. Barnwell had the opposite take. Said he could see the Pats running more hurry-up with passes to the flats, limiting Atlanta's pass rush.