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Old 05-06-2017, 01:41 PM   #1
Fozzie_DeBear
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Default EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?

Electric vehicles will kill global oil industry by 2030, says Stanford economist Tony Seba. If Tony Seba is correct, the Texas and Alberta economies just took a metaphorical bullet to the head

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Old 05-06-2017, 02:06 PM   #2
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I agree with this article. Over the past few years we've gone down from 3 cars to 1, and I use uber for anything else required. In a few years, if the costs keep going down, I don't see the need fora second vehicle.

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Old 05-06-2017, 02:08 PM   #3
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autonomous vehicles are almost all going to be EV's.

Roofing will turn to solar panels over the next while too, reducing demand for natural gas.

Alberta is in trouble, I think the article's correct, it's only a matter of time now.
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Old 05-06-2017, 02:10 PM   #4
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Was gonna say I'll be buying a Model 3 but realized I won't be able to afford it if our economy is dead.
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Old 05-06-2017, 02:36 PM   #5
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It would be smart if Calgary and Edmonton would start to change the focus of their businesses from Oil to technology to become basically Silicon Valley north. With out tax structure, it would be beneficial for the tech companies to come here and we already have a lot of white collar infrastructure that could easily be adapted. Certain portions of Alberta are going to be screwed either way though.
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Old 05-06-2017, 02:59 PM   #6
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Those projections seem overly-optimistic to me. I expect commercial fleets will quickly switch to autonomous EVs. The private market will take a long time.

Look at young families. Has anyone seen what a couple pre-schoolers do to a car? Are people really going to want to hop into a car that was just used by a family with a 3 year old and a 5 year old to make a trip to McDonald's? Then there's the issue of car seat compatibility.

Smokers still make up around 15 per cent of the population. They'll want their own vehicles to smoke in.

Then there's simple status. Can't impress people with your taste and affluence if everyone uses car shares.

I expect we'll see close to 50 per cent private vehicles for at least another 20 years after autonomous vehicles clear their regulatory hurdles.
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Old 05-06-2017, 03:06 PM   #7
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
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Old 05-06-2017, 03:09 PM   #8
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Some VC's predict that there will be niche TAAS services that could provide optimized services for young families, premium clients etc
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Old 05-06-2017, 03:15 PM   #9
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I am very skeptical as well. Lots of the technology is very unproven and has even in its infancy proven very difficult to scale.
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Old 05-06-2017, 03:35 PM   #10
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.

http://www.chevrolet.ca/volt-electric-car.html
http://www.nissan.ca/en/electric-cars/leaf/
https://vwmodels.ca/egolf/#spotlight

It's going to happen. Time to start planning for it.

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Old 05-06-2017, 03:41 PM   #11
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If the service/product is 4 to 10 times cheaper than the existing options it will be very tough to not see this catching on.

Take a look at China and India's plans for EV's as well.
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Old 05-06-2017, 03:55 PM   #12
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
Every major manufacturer in the world has been sinking millions/billions into EV technology for at least five years. 2030 seems optimistic for them to become "oil industry killing" to me too, but no way it's going to take 43 more years for them to become the norm.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:00 PM   #13
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There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.

http://www.chevrolet.ca/volt-electric-car.html
http://www.nissan.ca/en/electric-cars/leaf/
https://vwmodels.ca/egolf/#spotlight

It's going to happen. Time to start planning for it.
While I'm probably more bullish on EVs than almost anyone in this thread, remember that Oil is a lot more than transportation fuel. Demand for plastics will skyrocket
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:10 PM   #14
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Not a chance. There is zero chance electrical vehicles will be main stream by 2030. More like 2060 if they're lucky.
This is very short sighted.

Battery powered EVs will likely be cheaper to operate than gas in as little as six years. Add in the scale that Tesla is likely to prove, and there's no reason why 20 30 isn't realistic .

Plus, as mentioned earlier, there doesn't need to be a majority if EVs to severely affect a market sustained on transportation fuel as it is now.

Major disruption is coming. Full stop
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:21 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by CampbellsTransgressions View Post
There is no requirement that EVs become mainstream in order to kill the Alberta economy. We have spent the last 3 years experiencing the impacts of a relatively small amount of overproduction of oil.

http://www.chevrolet.ca/volt-electric-car.html
http://www.nissan.ca/en/electric-cars/leaf/
https://vwmodels.ca/egolf/#spotlight

It's going to happen. Time to start planning for it.
Which has nothing to do with EV. If you want to make an argument that Alberta is dependent on Oil then I of course agree.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:23 PM   #16
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This is very short sighted.

Battery powered EVs will likely be cheaper to operate than gas in as little as six years. Add in the scale that Tesla is likely to prove, and there's no reason why 20 30 isn't realistic .

Plus, as mentioned earlier, there doesn't need to be a majority if EVs to severely affect a market sustained on transportation fuel as it is now.

Major disruption is coming. Full stop
They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:35 PM   #17
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They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
You are missing half of the story...there is an expectation that the business model of owning a car will be displaced.
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:39 PM   #18
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They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
We're not looking for majority EVs. We're looking for the point where there's enough EVs to disrupt the oil industry. That's much less than 50%
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Old 05-06-2017, 04:40 PM   #19
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They're still way too expensive for the average car owner to own. Even if it takes 6 years for them to be cheaper, it'll take at least 20 more years for them to hit the resale market where everyone can afford one. 2030 is absurd.
The thing is that at some point you start experiencing fuel savings which pay for a large portion of the car loan and subsequent battery replacement loan (which will effectively be the backbone of the resale market for these cars).

We're also considering TaaS, which means that you won't even be the one buying the car. Uber buys the car and offers you free rides wherever you need to go. In exchange, you watch TV ads or provide other valuable information during your trip.

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Old 05-06-2017, 04:43 PM   #20
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That's the thing, I am fully expecting that once self driving vehicles become normal, I would expect that ownership of cars themselves to dwindle.
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