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Old 05-15-2017, 09:39 PM   #381
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Is Canada ready for a world awash in $0 oil...

I think that its important to realize that this $0 oil may not come to pass...but are Albertans prepared for this possibility?
He lost me at the we don't have electric motors with enough torque for tractors line. Pretty Mich every train locomotive uses electric motors. Some of the largest ships in the world use electric motors. I'm pretty sure we have electric motors with more then enough torque for a tractor.
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Old 05-15-2017, 10:22 PM   #382
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He lost me at the we don't have electric motors with enough torque for tractors line. Pretty Mich every train locomotive uses electric motors. Some of the largest ships in the world use electric motors. I'm pretty sure we have electric motors with more then enough torque for a tractor.
I think it was part of a rhetorical statement...

But surely, you might say, there will still be demand for fossil fuels for many decades. Electric motors with sufficient torque to power tractors, transport trucks and other heavy equipment, to say nothing of jet engines, have not yet been invented. Many countries have new fossil-fuel generating stations with decades of life in them. The full transition to alternative energy could take the rest of this century, couldn't it?
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Old 05-16-2017, 02:22 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear View Post
Is Canada ready for a world awash in $0 oil...

I think that its important to realize that this $0 oil may not come to pass...but are Albertans prepared for this possibility?
If oil, currently by far the world's most valuable and important resource, gets to $0, the only explanation for that that to happensis if a form of very useful energy (ie micro-fusion) became essentially free and unlimited. The whole world isn't ready for that.

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Old 05-16-2017, 12:15 PM   #384
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A very interesting a16z podcast (Venture Capital firm from Silicon Valley)

The whole podcast covers a range of topics but in the last 90 seconds of the podcast the topic turns to whether his 2 year old or 6 year old will ever drive. The opinion is maybe for the 6 year old and no for the 2 year old...

What is interesting is the reasoning...parents would not want their kids to have to drive. Given the risk of accidents for young people with piss-poor assessment of physical risk it makes sense that parents would much prefer to have a taas or autonomous vehicle that will ensure that their kids will get to and fro as safely as possible.
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:18 PM   #385
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IEA: World oil demand forecast experienced the second consecutive annual deceleration in oil demand growth at 1.3% in 2017.
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:27 PM   #386
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Oil demand has gone from 93.8 in 2015 to a forecast 99.1 by the end of the year. It's kind of amazing we can keep increasing supply like that, all while the easy oil has long been retrieved.
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Old 05-17-2017, 03:35 PM   #387
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Oil demand has gone from 93.8 in 2015 to a forecast 99.1 by the end of the year. It's kind of amazing we can keep increasing supply like that, all while the easy oil has long been retrieved.
I think the most impressive graphic I've ever seen of the scale of oil is this one that compares the value of oil to all useful metals. That's the scale of how important oil is to human civilization and how hard it will be to replace it with any conceivable form of energy that we have today.

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Old 05-17-2017, 03:41 PM   #388
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I think the most impressive graphic I've ever seen of the scale of oil is this one that compares the value of oil to all useful metals. That's the scale of how important oil is to human civilization and how hard it will be to replace it with any conceivable form of energy that we have today.

Though its marginal demand that sets the marginal price. At 70 million barrels of demand oil is likely $30 dollars a barrel for 10 years before gradually increasing. Any technology that can replace 20% of the oil market will be a huge disruption. Though sustaining production in Alberta after a few bankruptcies to get rid of debt will do quite well in the decline phase of supply.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:50 PM   #389
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Saw an electric Fisker Karma today on 11th Ave. Pretty sweet looking car.
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Old 05-17-2017, 08:12 PM   #390
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IEA: World oil demand forecast experienced the second consecutive annual deceleration in oil demand growth at 1.3% in 2017.
Yeah. Listened to a speaker who is a very highly respected Canadian oil and gas titan. Won't get into details exactly but basically he predicted roughly 101-104mmbo/d global demand will be peak demand (or so). Vs all the previous estimates of analysts saying it would go as high as 120mmbo/d

That kind of a correction on estimates will pose huge issues for current supply. He also added that the technological advances coming with unconventional are going to keep oil range bound to 40-60$/bbl. Optimistically. Said we will absolutely without a doubt never see $100/bbl ever again. He had sound numbers and research to back it up, and it all kinda made sense. Spoke to EV and automation as the key driver of this demand slowing.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:11 PM   #391
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$1.7 trillion? pffft....the Global Electricity market is $3.2 trillion ;-)

All kidding aside...this group at the University of Calgary is doing some interesting research.
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:14 PM   #392
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https://business-financialpost-com.c...les-rev-up/amp
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Old 05-19-2017, 11:07 AM   #393
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The Financial Times has a huge article about the sea change that's happening. About a year ago I was lambasted on these forums for pretty much describing what is going on in this article and what many others have said in this thread. That is that there is a huge structural change going on and only the shoots are yet visible. I said that oil demand will most likely peak by 2030. The FT agrees:

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After years of hype and false starts, the shift to clean power has begun to accelerate at a pace that has taken the most experienced experts by surprise. Even leaders in the oil and gas sector have been forced to confront an existential question: will the 21st century be the last one for fossil fuels?

It is early, but the evidence is mounting. Wind and solar parks are being built at unprecedented rates, threatening the business models of established power companies. Electric cars that were hard to even buy eight years ago are selling at an exponential rate, in the process driving down the price of batteries that hold the key to unleashing new levels of green growth.

“This clean energy disruption has just started and what is striking is how much of a financial impact it is already having on some companies,” says Per Lekander, a portfolio manager at London’s Lansdowne Partners hedge fund, who has tracked global energy markets for more than 25 years.

“It hit the electricity sector first, in Europe in 2013 and then the US two years later. Now it has spread to the auto sector and I think the oil industry is next.”
https://www.ft.com/content/44ed7e90-...9-b01cc67cfeec
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Old 05-19-2017, 01:18 PM   #394
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This probably goes in the gear grinders thread, but the number of links in this thread that are behind paywalls is grinding my gears.
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Old 05-19-2017, 08:20 PM   #395
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Quote:
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A very interesting a16z podcast (Venture Capital firm from Silicon Valley)

The whole podcast covers a range of topics but in the last 90 seconds of the podcast the topic turns to whether his 2 year old or 6 year old will ever drive. The opinion is maybe for the 6 year old and no for the 2 year old...

What is interesting is the reasoning...parents would not want their kids to have to drive. Given the risk of accidents for young people with piss-poor assessment of physical risk it makes sense that parents would much prefer to have a taas or autonomous vehicle that will ensure that their kids will get to and fro as safely as possible.
The small child of a wealthy beyond dreams of avarice venture capitalist probably will never need to drive. I'm not totally convinced driverless technology will be so mainstream that its applicable in all new vehicles sold in 15-20 years to the point that you don't need to know how to drive.

That tech will be in 6 figure teslas well before its in 16k econoboxes.
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Old 05-21-2017, 06:55 PM   #396
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Old 05-22-2017, 12:40 PM   #397
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Ford doubles down on autonomous vehicles...gets new CEO
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Old 05-22-2017, 02:51 PM   #398
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Apple's project Titan is a whole platform...not just a car
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Old 05-22-2017, 04:30 PM   #399
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I think the electric motorcycle is somewhat sensible. My older brother has an electric scooter in SF and raves about it. He uses it as a daily driver and then has the gas motorcycle for longer trips. The cost is pretty crazy though, at least in that video.
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Old 05-22-2017, 04:35 PM   #400
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If it's one thing motorcycle riders need it's to be quieter and even easier for inattentive people to miss. I wonder if the fatality rate on electric motorcycles will be a lot higher.
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