Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 18

[Yanda]

If were not gonna vote Hathaway at this point then ill stop voting for him too, like 20 of us every round just throwing our vote away every round because were being realistic. He will likely be a full time NHLer this season and really should have been where Wotherspoon was placed.

[Mass_nerder]

Dube.
I think I would have voted for him earlier, but I somehow forgot/didn't see him up there.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

There's plenty of guys who have gone on to have solid careers after being drafted in later rounds.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=25444

Absolutely, and I really do hope he can become good, but from everything I've seen or read I see no reason to rate him ahead of the kid we drafted 100 spots earlier a month ago.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Yanda

If were not gonna vote Hathaway at this point then ill stop voting for him too, like 20 of us every round just throwing our vote away every round because were being realistic. He will likely be a full time NHLer this season and really should have been where Wotherspoon was placed.

It seems you value likelihood of making the NHL, regardless of role, more than a lot of posters. Which is fine - it is up to each people.
But I will vote for a prospect further away, that has real upside, as opposed to a guy like Hathaway who tops out as a 4th liner at best.

[Cheese]

Updated Year x Year

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...brQ/edit#gid=0

[Calgary4LIfe]

I don't think it matters that Tuulola was taken in the 6th round this year, and Dube in the 2nd round this year.

Gaudreau and Brodie obviously out-developed the picks Calgary chose ahead of them. If someone thinks Tuulola or anyone else will out-develop Dube, by all means vote for him.

I won't vote guys I know are 4th liners ahead of guys with a reasonable chance of having larger impacts on the team. However, if someone feels Tuulola will have more of an impact than Dube, by all means vote Tuulola.

I voted Dube.. but I won't argue with someone who feels Tuulola (or someone else) will end up having a better career.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Yanda

If were not gonna vote Hathaway at this point then ill stop voting for him too, like 20 of us every round just throwing our vote away every round because were being realistic. He will likely be a full time NHLer this season and really should have been where Wotherspoon was placed.

Hang in there. I voted Dube, Hathaway is my next vote.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Yanda

If were not gonna vote Hathaway at this point then ill stop voting for him too, like 20 of us every round just throwing our vote away every round because were being realistic. He will likely be a full time NHLer this season and really should have been where Wotherspoon was placed.

It is just that the Flames recent picks at 50-60 in the draft, where other teams draft guys are lucky to play in the NHL for 40 games as 4th liners or 5/6 d-men, the Flames have drafted a bunch of top-6 forwards, and top-4 d-men.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It is just that the Flames recent picks at 50-60 in the draft, where other teams draft guys are lucky to play in the NHL for 40 games as 4th liners or 5/6 d-men, the Flames have drafted a bunch of top-6 forwards, and top-4 d-men.

What does this mean?

[Finger Cookin]

Guys, we need more runoffs. This process is almost half way over and it's not even August. Please vote accordingly.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

What does this mean?

I believe it is an attempt at sarcasm.

[Demaeon]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It is just that the Flames recent picks at 50-60 in the draft, where other teams draft guys are lucky to play in the NHL for 40 games as 4th liners or 5/6 d-men, the Flames have drafted a bunch of top-6 forwards, and top-4 d-men.

So far the lowest pick from this years draft that has been voted in before Hathaway is Fox, a 3rd rounder.

If Hathaway were to have been traded for a pick or picks at this past draft, what kind of a return do you estimate he would have gotten?

[N26]

I've voted Hathaway for a few rounds now but I can live with the new picks beating him. It depends on how you weigh each aspect.

However I am not voting Hathaway just because he is projected to make the team by many. I am still voting on his upside. As in I think he could be a very impactful 4th liner. Not just an 8-minute-a-night AHL tweener but possibily one of those 4th liners that can have a large effect at times. He could be a good forechecking hitter who plays the penalty kill and agitates the s**t out of other teams. He could chip in as many as 10 goals a year and he may have some future leadership role. That's what I'm hoping for and voting for. He may top out at a fourth-liner but he could be a good one. We need good fourth-liners too. They can make a difference. They often have a role in playoff runs like the Gionta line did in New Jersey a couple of years ago. How about a Bouma-FHamilton-Hathaway line that cause chaos for the opposition 10-12 minutes a night?

I like Dube, Parsons, Fox & E2 but they are still somewhat undefined as players. Dube could be anything in a few years. Parsons needs to shine on a non-powerhouse team to show he is a possible future #1 i think. Fox has to see if he can continue to dominate at the next level where his size will be more of a factor and Tuulola has to show that he is not another Tim Harrison.

Actually I think all of them have a good chance of succeeding but Hathaway already has a defined role and there is a chance he could be very good at it. So I will keep voting for him for now even if he's a fourth-liner.

Say this to yourself and see if it sounds unreasonable:

"I think our 19th best prospect can be an effective role player"

I completely, absolutely could care less about what round of pick we would get for him if we traded him. It's not a valid way to create rankings. Teams tend to overvalue there own prospects and other teams have no interest in giving maximum value in trades. SO the answer tells you little about the actual value of the prospect.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

What does this mean?

Either the Flames scouting and drafting is superior to the rest of the league by a huge margin based on the top high end prospects they have picked up at the 50-60 in the drafts........ OR the people voting are over estimating their potential.

Maybe a bit of both.


Hathaway becomes a benchmark.... he is still a prospect but has an extremely high chance to get a NHL pay cheque for 100 games......

From our 2013 prospect exercise there are 6 players who a full 3 years later have NHL careers

1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
12.Granlund
21.Bouma
26.Ferland

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Demaeon

So far the lowest pick from this years draft that has been voted in before Hathaway is Fox, a 3rd rounder.

If Hathaway were to have been traded for a pick or picks at this past draft, what kind of a return do you estimate he would have gotten?

Using the draft replacement value approach the Flames starting goalie is a 2016 2nd round pick.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Either the Flames scouting and drafting is superior to the rest of the league by a huge margin based on the top high end prospects they have picked up at the 50-60 in the drafts........ OR the people voting are over estimating their potential...

You do realise that Flames fans are no different from fans of any other team in this regard, I hope. It seems silly to have to point out that in this exercise fans are going to employ different philosophies and methods in ranking prospects, and I would hope that we all share the sober recognition that "potential" is a quality with these later picks that is seldom realised. In other words, while I see a higher POTENTIAL in several of the remaining players than I do in Hathaway, that in no way means that I expect all of these players to reach it. Of course, they are all long shots, but by the same token, the minuscule odds are enough for those of us voting for these former ##50-60 picks to justify their ranking higher than an emerging pro journeyman.

...From our 2013 prospect exercise there are 6 players who a full 3 years later have NHL careers



1. Monahan

2. Baertschi

3. Gaudreau

12.Granlund

21.Bouma

26.Ferland

I don't know if you are intentionally cryptic for effect, but in any event you do need to be more forthright about your specific point. Here again I am struggling to guess what this means.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Using the draft replacement value approach the Flames starting goalie is a 2016 2nd round pick.

That doesn't answer his question, which was specifically about Hathaway, and not Brian Elliot.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Fair enough. I've never watched either of them, so I voted for Tuulola because of his size. Nothing more complicated or nefarious than that.

If you're voting for prospects based on size shouldn't you have voted Falkovsky instead?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Either the Flames scouting and drafting is superior to the rest of the league by a huge margin based on the top high end prospects they have picked up at the 50-60 in the drafts........ OR the people voting are over estimating their potential.

Maybe a bit of both.


Hathaway becomes a benchmark.... he is still a prospect but has an extremely high chance to get a NHL pay cheque for 100 games......

From our 2013 prospect exercise there are 6 players who a full 3 years later have NHL careers

1. Monahan
2. Baertschi
3. Gaudreau
12.Granlund
21.Bouma
26.Ferland

I don't think either is true, you are just assuming and therefore failing to understand the thought process people are going through in this process - which is different for everyone.
We all know that the vast majority of these players will not be NHLers and I don't see anyone saying otherwise.
The mental exercise everyone does here, to some extent, basically comes down to evaluating the upside and likelihood of a player becoming an NHL, and the relative waiting for those two core elements.
If you give likelihood more weight then yes - rank a guy like Hathaway higher. But for others, that is not the way they are approaching this. I view Hathaway as a replacement level player in the NHL, and therefore him making it or not, is really unimportant. Therefore I will rank a player ahead of him like Dube, who has far more upside, though less chance of making the NHL based on where he is in his career.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I don't think either is true, you are just assuming and therefore failing to understand the thought process people are going through in this process - which is different for everyone.
We all know that the vast majority of these players will not be NHLers and I don't see anyone saying otherwise.
The mental exercise everyone does here, to some extent, basically comes down to evaluating the upside and likelihood of a player becoming an NHL, and the relative waiting for those two core elements.
If you give likelihood more weight then yes - rank a guy like Hathaway higher. But for others, that is not the way they are approaching this. I view Hathaway as a replacement level player in the NHL, and therefore him making it or not, is really unimportant. Therefore I will rank a player ahead of him like Dube, who has far more upside, though less chance of making the NHL based on where he is in his career.

I simply think that a player who has shown that he has the skill to play 4th line in the NHL has shown more high end potential than anyone not dominating in Juniors or the AHL or the NCAA.