EV's and Transportation as a Service to kill Alberta economy by 2030?

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's not out of touch and being giddy about the death of the Alberta economy isn't exactly something I would be proud of. I pay a lot of attention to the automobile industry and if their impending doom was imminent we would be seeing considerably more action.

You are assuming rational behaviour...why isn't blockbuster around? One aspect is that it is very difficult for organizations to disrupt their own business model.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Expecting the 3rd world to replicate consumption patterns like the 1st world is a recipe for disaster.

But China did it in about 30 years. First lights and fans, than TVs, fridges and air conditioning and now cars. But all that is built on the back of huge amounts of cheap, reliable energy which is mostly coal and oil.

Just curious, is your username a tribute to a 1999 Honda Accord?

Indeed it is.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Expecting the 3rd world to replicate consumption patterns like the 1st world is a recipe for disaster.

Just curious, is your username a tribute to a 1999 Honda Accord?

Have you ever seen a traffic jam in New Delhi or Bangkok? Are you kidding? Its much worse, and it will be much worse before it gets better, if ever.

Get out and see the world, then write about it.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

Minivans are cheaper, and better in almost every category than SUVs. Yet people will spend twice as much on an SUV largely because of image. I wonder how that human aspect will play into the whole personal vehicle ownership decision.

It will always boil down to style and preference. As you say the minivan is the best vehicle ever made for families as they offer easy ingress/egress, the most cargo room and interior volume, and are generally fuel efficient. Unfortunately minivan market share is dwindling due to the public's thirst for SUV's. This is why I simply don't buy into any of this doom and gloom talk as if anything we are seeing unprecedented demand for large trucks and SUV's with 4WD/AWD while the traditional family sedan which has ruled for decades is now starting to lose ground. Subaru for example has had year over year sales increased going back almost a decade (really amazing actually) and they offer only one hybrid and it doesn't sell at all. A 2WD EV makes for an okay city commuter but people want large AWD vehicles for travelling and there's no indication that's changing for a few generations.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

This is something I've been thinking about more and more. Ignoring the autonomous aspect and just looking at electric transitions I think it is something we(as Albertans) need to be very concerned with. We have just seen how a very small disturbance in the supply/demand balance can devastate our economy. I'm kind of amazed at how many in this thread have missed that. We don't need a total transition to electric to be a threat, just a few percent change. So will that be in 10 years? 15? We know it is coming, it is just the time frame that is uncertain.

Spoiler!

It's coming and it's coming fast. Personally, as someone in the oil industry, I find myself thinking what happens in 15 years? What is our plan? As a province 2030 is not that far off to be making long term strategic plans for. Expecting oil to continue to be the most affordable fuel for all days from now to forever is foolhardy. We may experience a price bounce in the next decade oil back to $100, or $150 as the less developed world continues its trajectory, but it will be short lived.

Like I said, a small imbalance is all it takes to devastate Alberta. That's not conjecture, it's fact. It would be nice if we prepared for it.

There are many people in the 'innovation' space from Government, Academia and Industry who are aware of this, however, the Oil and Gas sector kind of sucks the oxygen from the room as it has had about a century to become entrenched in the Alberta narrative.

Anyone who want to connect into the Alberta innovation system can PM me and I'll be happy to share some events that are upcoming.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

You are assuming rational behaviour...why isn't blockbuster around? One aspect is that it is very difficult for organizations to disrupt their own business model.

Yes but EV's have existed for well over a decade and the electric motor and batteries are not new technology. Blockbuster died the moment digital streaming came into the market. There's no magical EV that's going to come on the scene and replace large SUV's and 4x4 trucks because the same people developing EV's are the ones building the gasoline powered SUV's and 4x4 trucks. Nobody is getting blindsided here.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yes but EV's have existed for well over a decade and the electric motor and batteries are not new technology. Blockbuster died the moment digital streaming came into the market. There's no magical EV that's going to come on the scene and replace large SUV's and 4x4 trucks because the same people developing EV's are the ones building the gasoline powered SUV's and 4x4 trucks. Nobody is getting blindsided here.

If you think this thread is about the death of car makers you should start over with post #1.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It will always boil down to style and preference. As you say the minivan is the best vehicle ever made for families as they offer easy ingress/egress, the most cargo room and interior volume, and are generally fuel efficient. Unfortunately minivan market share is dwindling due to the public's thirst for SUV's. This is why I simply don't buy into any of this doom and gloom talk as if anything we are seeing unprecedented demand for large trucks and SUV's with 4WD/AWD while the traditional family sedan which has ruled for decades is now starting to lose ground. Subaru for example has had year over year sales increased going back almost a decade (really amazing actually) and they offer only one hybrid and it doesn't sell at all. A 2WD EV makes for an okay city commuter but people want large AWD vehicles for travelling and there's no indication that's changing for a few generations.

If you want to talk about unprecedented demand I would think about the Model 3 pre-orders.

Also, the incremental changes in preference for body configurations (SUV vs Van vs Wagon) are orders of magnitude smaller than the changes in the EV powertrain and economics. Let alone the potential changes in the business model of vehicle ownership (Taas).

And there may be IC SUV's for a while, but the composition of the global vehicle fleet will change. And frankly, that is the issue that Albertans need to wrap their heads around.

The global market for our oil will change and it MAY happen sooner than we think...why not be on top of that possibility?

The ostrich strategy doesn't make sense to me...and to suggest that everything will be A-OK because lots of people drive big-ass trucks is 'interesting'.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yes but EV's have existed for well over a decade and the electric motor and batteries are not new technology. Blockbuster died the moment digital streaming came into the market. There's no magical EV that's going to come on the scene and replace large SUV's and 4x4 trucks because the same people developing EV's are the ones building the gasoline powered SUV's and 4x4 trucks. Nobody is getting blindsided here.

Do you understand that we don't need to initially replace 4x4 and SUV's with electric to have a big impact on the Alberta economy? It starts with small vehicles, and will develop into larger ones. But even few percent of EV's are going to have an impact. As long as EV's are gaining market share, we are going to have a problem in this province. It isn't all or nothing.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Have you ever seen a traffic jam in New Delhi or Bangkok? Are you kidding? Its much worse, and it will be much worse before it gets better, if ever.

Get out and see the world, then write about it.

Yeah, I've seen plenty of the world outside of North America...thanks. And the congestion and smog that has come from the 3rd world chasing a first world standard of living is a major problem.

It's a big reason why India is trying going to EV's

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do you understand that we don't need to initially replace 4x4 and SUV's with electric to have a big impact on the Alberta economy? It starts with small vehicles, and will develop into larger ones. But even few percent of EV's are going to have an impact. As long as EV's are gaining market share, we are going to have a problem in this province. It isn't all or nothing.

But small vehicles now are getting 40 mpg anyway. You replace a small handful of those and it really isn't affecting overall demand for gasoline when the roads are full of F150's and SUV's getting 20 mpg. The F150 is the biggest selling vehicle by a longshot in North America. Dodge (they don't even sell economy cars anymore because everyone wants trucks and SUV's) sells more Rams than Toyota sells Corollas. It's not even close and until you dent those sales it really doesn't matter how many small EV's you are selling. Yes there will be inroads made but it's going to take a while and nothing like this article states which is misinformed and ludicrous.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

If you think this thread is about the death of car makers you should start over with post #1.

I fail to see your point here? As below he's predicting a massive drop in passenger vehicles in the span of a decade that would absolutely be the death of the majority of automakers.

As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

But small vehicles now are getting 40 mpg anyway. You replace a small handful of those and it really isn't affecting overall demand for gasoline when the roads are full of F150's and SUV's getting 20 mpg. The F150 is the biggest selling vehicle by a longshot in North America. Dodge (they don't even sell economy cars anymore because everyone wants trucks and SUV's) sells more Rams than Toyota sells Corollas. It's not even close and until you dent those sales it really doesn't matter how many small EV's you are selling. Yes there will be inroads made but it's going to take a while and nothing like this article states which is misinformed and ludicrous.

First, just to address that we should be looknig at global trends, not North America's taste in big vehicles, and second, recognize oil demand is global.

OK, lets ignore the article then. You agree that it is going to take awhile. What is your time frame before, say 20% of vehicle sales globally are EV's? Do you think this will mean big trouble for Alberta? When should we worry?

[Tinordi]

What matters is the marginal change in the stock not the total change.

This discussion paper is a good entry that discusses the impact that marginal changes are having on the energy system and commodities in that system.

Systemic change is focused on questions like when will half of the car fleet be electric vehicles, or when will annual sales of EV reach 40 million. Clearly that is not going to happen for a long time.

Marginal change for the car industry focuses on the 2 million vehicles: which company can take a share of the 2 million vehicle growth. Change here clearly can happen much sooner. Incremental EV sales in 2016 were 0.3 million, and at current growth rates, electric vehicles will supply all incremental car demand in 5 years (Bond, 2017). At this stage the market share of EV would be under 10% and they would make up just 3% of the global fleet.

Meanwhile, we do not see automotive manufactures sitting on their laurels and not worrying about the fact that it will take decades for electric vehicles to replace the internal combustion engine. In 2016, when EV were less than 1% of total sales, a large number of automotive manufacturers, from BMW to Ford, made announcements about a major strategic shift into EV.

http://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/rese...ruary-2017.pdf

So last year the world had 1 million EVs on the road. This year we'll have 2 million EVs. (watch for an IEA report this July to confirm that)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

First, just to address that we should be looknig at global trends, not North America's taste in big vehicles, and second, recognize oil demand is global.

OK, lets ignore the article then. You agree that it is going to take awhile. What is your time frame before, say 20% of vehicle sales globally are EV's? Do you think this will mean big trouble for Alberta? When should we worry?

Absolutely measures should be taken but it's much easier said than done. As has already been noted we don't have an attractive climate so there's no chance in this ever becoming another silicone valley. I've never been one to get excited by doom and gloom clickbait as there's always and angle where someone is profiting from spreading this type of stuff (see Y2K) but electric cars aren't evolving or coming down in price fast enough at the present time and combined with the low price of gasoline it's just something that's not going to happen for decades. It will happen absolutely but it's going to be gradual and take some time yet.

Let's not forget that this doesn't effect just Alberta. This effects Ontario and Quebec that manufacture a lot of automobiles and automotive parts. There hundreds of automotive mechanics in every city, tire manufacturers, etc who's livelihoods depend on the industry. There's simply so many spin off industries that everyone would be affected in one way or another.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

How do EV's work for road trips? What if you're stranded in the middle of nowhere with a dead battery? Is there a way to get the car running again with some type of mobile recharger like you would with a Jerry can of gas?

As a person who's on the verge of buying an EV, I can say that I would reconcile road trips with just renting a ICE vehicle when I want to take a road trip which is between 2-4 times a year. Rental car costs are about $30-40 a day. More than reasonable and make up for 10x lower fuel costs of the regular day-to-day use of the EV.

[Regorium]

Here's another question - what is the government's role in this?

They already barely do anything for oil and gas. There's some exploration credits (that are going away). Some specific drilling tax credits. Every other tax credit/subsidy that people talk about (like write-offs or CCA's) are available for every single corporation.

They can get rid of those, then what?

Is the end-game for you guys for the government to tax, block actions (eg. drilling/expansion/pipelines) and basically choke our O&G companies to death so that we can usher in this new EV utopia?

My opinion is much more Libertarian. If oil companies can't adapt to the this new EV and TAAS economy, then they should go bankrupt. The government should not be forcing oil companies to close. It feels like that's what a lot of you guys are suggesting, albeit in a very indirect way, but maybe I'm wrong.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do you understand that we don't need to initially replace 4x4 and SUV's with electric to have a big impact on the Alberta economy? It starts with small vehicles, and will develop into larger ones. But even few percent of EV's are going to have an impact. As long as EV's are gaining market share, we are going to have a problem in this province. It isn't all or nothing.

EVs gaining share are handle-able, as long as the global ICE passenger and commercial fleet keeps on growing by 60-70 million a year, and the jetliner, freight train and ship markets keep on growing as they do now.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

One of my friends has a Nissan Leaf and uses it for all his day-to-day commuting and errands. He absolutely loves it, but the only major drawback is that he is pretty much limited to round trips of 100 km or less. Public charging areas are still rare at this point. He has another gasoline vehicle for longer trips. I am considering getting a Leaf as well.

I could see a similar situation with automated cars for the first while where people rely on them for most things, but still have a back-up vehicle for trips or for going off the beaten path.

I would never discourage anyone from getting an EV but just one thing to keep in mind depending on how much disposable income you have is that EV resale value is horrendous so if you get one be prepared to own it for a long as possible because 3 year old EV's typically return less than 20% of it's original purchase price. This is another issue facing EV's that not many people talk about.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I fail to see your point here? As below he's predicting a massive drop in passenger vehicles in the span of a decade that would absolutely be the death of the majority of automakers.

I presume those 44 million cars will be made by farmers?

Pro Wrestlers?

McDonalds?