Turning it around: November 15, 2016

[tvp2003]

Read a bunch of tweets this morning talking about the Flames record since November 15, Johnson's numbers since November 15... then came across this article which was written on November 15, prior to the Flames taking on Minnesota:

https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/gulu...ce/c-283752646

To set the stage: Flames are 5-10-1, have lost four straight, and are 1-6-0 in their past seven games. Coming of a listless performance against the Rangers at home. PP and PK are both abysmal.

So what happens:

- Tkachuk returns to the lineup following a minor wrist injury
- Bennett moved to the wing to play with Stajan
- Hathaway dresses for the first time this season
- The D pairings are tweaked (again): Giordano now with Hamilton, Brodie with Wideman
- (Backup) Chad Johnson gets the start

The result?

- Flames grind out a 1-0 win
- Johnson makes 27 saves for the shutout

Since November 15 (per Darren Haynes):

- Flames are 9-3-1 (third in NHL in win%)
- Johnson is 9-2-0, 1.63 GAA, .946 Sv%
- PP is 19.4% (tied for 10th)
- PK is 86.0% (11th)

Conclusion:

While the team's recent success isn't solely attributable to the changes made on November 15, it clearly has been a catalyst for their turnaround these past few weeks.

Looking back in hindsight, it's interesting to read some of Gulutzan's comments back on November 15 (per the link above):

They say if it ain't broke don't fix it.

In the case of the Calgary Flames, mired in a three-game skid, a fix is needed and that's what coach Glen Gulutzan is trying to do.

Calgary is facing a very good Minnesota Wild team tonight at Xcel Energy Center that is swimming in depth, and Gulutzan has overhauled his lineup in search of some consistency throughout the lineup.

...

"We talked about 50-50 hockey over the last couple of days and being better at managing the puck and being comfortable at playing 50-50 hockey, because that's what the NHL is and then relying a little bit on your specialty teams."

...

The forwards aren't the only part of the Flames that will get a makeover. The blueline will also see a number of changes, most notably Dougie Hamilton being paired up with captain Mark Giordano.

...

"I'm a big fan of righty-lefty pairs, I think it helps you spread the ice out, helps you play quicker. Spreads the ice out in the offensive zone, through the neutral zone."

[Enoch Root]

Didn't know where else to put this, but I think most people agree that since Hamilton and Giordano were put together on Nov 15th, that they have played pretty well. But are people aware of just how well?

Question: How many goals against has Hamilton been on the ice for in those 13 games?

Answer: Two. Yes, 2. (one in the 2-1 W over Boston, and 1 in the 5-3 L to Philly)

The Flames have given up 25 goals over that time, so he has been out for 2 of 25, or 8% of them.

In those 13 games he has 1G, 6A, 7P (6-38-44 pace)

And he is a +10 (that is a +63 pace! - which is Nik Lidstrom territory)

It should be noted that Giordano is also playing much better. He doesn't seem to get much appreciation from fans any more, but his resurgence has been a big part of the team's recent success as well.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

What you are missing is the fact Johnny also got injured in this game.

Since that game there have been 0 passengers on this team. Everyone knows their role and is playing good hockey. Instead of trying to get by on skill, they've been grinding out period after period of complete, reliable hockey.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

...It should be noted that Giordano is also playing much better. He doesn't seem to get much appreciation from fans any more, but his resurgence has been a big part of the team's recent success as well.

I was so happy to see him score last night. Even if it did get waived off, I'm hoping that this is evidence of his rediscovery to be able to hit the net.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

What you are missing is the fact Johnny also got injured in this game.

Since that game there have been 0 passengers on this team. Everyone knows their role and is playing good hockey. Instead of trying to get by on skill, they've been grinding out period after period of complete, reliable hockey.

Excellent point. I forgot this was the game he got injured in. You're analysis is bang on IMO.

[Huntingwhale]

Good analysis. What I find intriguing about the Gio/Hamilton pairing is that Hartley tried it last year and it just didn't work out. Similar to early this season, we all wanted Brodano reunited and left alone.

I think the maturation in Hamilton's game has really been a big catalyst for turning the team's fortunes around. Only on the ice for 2 goals against in the last 13 games? Insane. He also appears to be developing a more physical edge to his game. He was never as soft as some people said he was. But he's now slowly but surely developing that physical game as another weapon in his arsenal. I've noticed when he goes into the corners behind a forward, the forward will often chip it away to avoid the hit. IMO that's exactly how you want opposing forward to react when a 6'5'' defenceman is coming at you. Panic.

Also, Hamilton is an open and shut case about why you don't panic trade like some on CP wanted and get rid of a 23 year old RHD simply for a shakeup. His contract looks better each and every game. He's also a perfect example of maybe overpaying for a young player coming off his entry level deal, but hoping it's the last half where it becomes a bargain. Hamilton appears well on pace to be that bargain. Perhaps he already is.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Also, [this season] is an open and shut case about why you don't panic

Some minor adjustments for truth.

[GullFoss]

I think the turning point was Oct 24 against chicago. Since that game, the flames have gotten better every game, even if the results weren't there at the begining.

Oct 24 - Beat chicago - flames deserved to win
Oct 25 - Beat St louis - flames deserved to win
Oct 28 - Beat Ottawa - flames deserved to win
Oct 30 - Lost to Washington - game was evenly matched
Nov 1 - Lost to Chicago - - flames deserved to win
Nov 3 - Beat San Jose- flames deserved to win
Nov 5 - Lost to LA - Flames deserved to low
Nov 6 - Lost to Anahim - played ok considering back to back
Nov 10 Lost to Dallas - Flames deserved to win
Nov 12 Lost to NYR - Flames deserved to lose

Thats actually a solid record on the surface considering the quality of competition. Aand the flames deserved a better fate in a few of those games.

So, yes - if you're looking at wins and losses, the team turned it around on Nov 15. But in reality - if you were really watching the game (and not ####ting on the team like a lot of board members), the turning point was almost a month earlier.

And if you were watching, you might have put some money down on the flames at 70-to-1. Just sayin...

[FBI]

Also the flames are undefeated since Janko was called up

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Didn't know where else to put this, but I think most people agree that since Hamilton and Giordano were put together on Nov 15th, that they have played pretty well. But are people aware of just how well?

Question: How many goals against has Hamilton been on the ice for in those 13 games?

Answer: Two. Yes, 2. (one in the 2-1 W over Boston, and 1 in the 5-3 L to Philly)

The Flames have given up 25 goals over that time, so he has been out for 2 of 25, or 8% of them.

In those 13 games he has 1G, 6A, 7P (6-38-44 pace)

And he is a +10 (that is a +63 pace! - which is Nik Lidstrom territory)

It should be noted that Giordano is also playing much better. He doesn't seem to get much appreciation from fans any more, but his resurgence has been a big part of the team's recent success as well.

Hamilton will be an elite D in the NHL, sooner rather than later.
He has the whole package.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by timbit

Hamilton will be an elite D in the NHL, sooner rather than later.
He has the whole package.

I'm thinking of him as the #1 already right now.


There was the stat about him only being on the ice for 2 GA over the last 13 games.
He is among the league leaders in all dmen for SOG (5th, 79).
He leads the Flames in assists (10).
He is tied for 2nd for Flames scoring (all skaters) with 13pts, also 1st among Flames D.

[Machiavelli]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I'm thinking of him as the #1 already right now.


There was the stat about him only being on the ice for 2 GA over the last 13 games.
He is among the league leaders in all dmen for SOG (5th, 79).
He leads the Flames in assists (10).
He is tied for 2nd for Flames scoring (all skaters) with 13pts, also 1st among Flames D.

He's been great, but can he be considered the #1 when he's not even top three for Flames defensemen in TOI per game?

[FiveSeven]

Cause there is this thing where he plays ridiculously good but doesn't get much reward TOI wise.
I think if he got 3-5 minutes more time on the ice that he would do just as well if not better and would develop even faster.

I'm still stoked about that trade. It was good and it looks better every year.

[Samuelsson]

Not particularly relevant, but whenever I get the notifications on my phone about the NHL's Stars of the Week, for the past month-or-so I've been baffled to not see Chad Johnson's name on any of those lists.

[jlh2640]

I love the recent success we have had, however lets pump the brakes a bit. We still have so far to go. And in my opinion it wont matter long term as I think our horrible start has already knocked us out of serious playoff contention. Only saving grace is the western conference is not nearly as strong so far. I also think there is no way Chad Johnson keeps this level of play going. And we still do not have a first line quality RW to play with Monahan or Johnny when they are eventually reunited.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

I love the recent success we have had, however lets pump the brakes a bit. We still have so far to go. And in my opinion it wont matter long term as I think our horrible start has already knocked us out of serious playoff contention. Only saving grace is the western conference is not nearly as strong so far. I also think there is no way Chad Johnson keeps this level of play going. And we still do not have a first line quality RW to play with Monahan or Johnny when they are eventually reunited.

1) We're still in playoff contention as there is a 2 point spread between first and fourth in the Pacific. The Pacific is thankfully that bad.

2) Chad Johnson probably won't keep it up to this degree. No reason to believe the opposite where the team can only play this well, especially with certain players we know who can take another step or two (Gio, Brodie, Bennett)

3) Show me a team with a 1st line with a top LW/C/RW and I'll show you a team with major depth issues.

Edit: Though to be fair, I can think of about 3-4 teams in the league that have enough offensive talent to fulfill that requirement. I suppose that's why each of them (San José, Washington, Chicago) are considered cup contenders.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

I love the recent success we have had, however lets pump the brakes a bit. We still have so far to go. And in my opinion it wont matter long term as I think our horrible start has already knocked us out of serious playoff contention. Only saving grace is the western conference is not nearly as strong so far. I also think there is no way Chad Johnson keeps this level of play going. And we still do not have a first line quality RW to play with Monahan or Johnny when they are eventually reunited.

This post is terrible.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

I love the recent success we have had, however lets pump the brakes a bit. We still have so far to go. And in my opinion it wont matter long term as I think our horrible start has already knocked us out of serious playoff contention. Only saving grace is the western conference is not nearly as strong so far. I also think there is no way Chad Johnson keeps this level of play going. And we still do not have a first line quality RW to play with Monahan or Johnny when they are eventually reunited.

I bet you're fun at parties.

"You know, we might be having fun now, but it's Friday. Eventually it will be Monday. So let's tone it down a bit, alright?"

"You're only having fun because you've had a few drinks. Tomorrow you will probably be hungover and will feel anywhere from bad to terrible. Your fun is an illusion."

"You guys really seem to be hitting it off. But let's be realistic. Most relationships fail. You don't really even know each other. Best case scenario, you fall in love and get married, and then there's like a 60% chance you eventually get divorced. Or one of you could die young. So what's the point?"

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I bet you're fun at parties.

"You know, we might be having fun now, but it's Friday. Eventually it will be Monday. So let's tone it down a bit, alright?"

"You're only having fun because you've had a few drinks. Tomorrow you will probably be hungover and will feel anywhere from bad to terrible. Your fun is an illusion."

"You guys really seem to be hitting it off. But let's be realistic. Most relationships fail. You don't really even know each other. Best case scenario, you fall in love and get married, and then there's like a 60% chance you eventually get divorced. Or one of you could die young. So what's the point?"

This is honestly funny.

[BigFlameDog]

Reason #1 why I believe Johnson will keep on keeping on is his calmness and maturity. Usually when we see a goalie go on a hot streak they resemble Hasek....a little bit scrambly, lucky, holy crap saves all over the place.

Johnson is calm and smooth and I think Calgary may have lucked out on getting later blooming, matured goalie just as he is entering the elite zone.

Hope it's not just my wishful thinking.