[GT] Flames 2016-17 Playoff Snake

[EldrickOnIce]

Nm

[edslunch]

Last 21 games = 113 pt pace for the Flames if I've read the snek properly

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by handgroen

game day

Quoted for game day.

[heep223]

[worth]

Snek snek snek

[belsarius]

One more rise for 2016, come on Snake!

[the2bears]

Come on snake, one last climb for 2016. Do it for Johnny!

[Robbob]

More snake

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Robbob

More snake

[drewtastic]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Come on snake, one last climb for 2016. Do it for Johnny!

Just as a point of order, that's "Harry" (The Guy With The Snake On His Face), not Johnny LaRue.

Unless you meant John(ny) Candy...

Still. SCTV rules. As does the Snake.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by drewtastic

Just as a point of order, that's "Harry" (The Guy With The Snake On His Face), not Johnny LaRue.

Unless you meant John(ny) Candy...

Still. SCTV rules. As does the Snake.

Yes, I meant Candy. SCTV still rules, what an amazing set of characters all the actors were able to create.

[squiggs96]

Welcome to 2017, snake fans. After 39 games the red snake is 3.659 points below the black line, 3 points below the green snake, and 2 points above the purple snake.

From November 30-December 31, the Flames played 14 games. Before this stretch I stated they would need 24 points in those 14 games in order to be above the black line, which seemed unreasonable. I also stated that in order to finish with 96 points, the red snake would need to average 1.298 PPG in its remaining 57 games. That would mean getting 18 points in the 14 game stretch. Well, the results are in, and the red snake went 10-4-0, for 20 points in 14 games. That's a 1.429 PPG average.

In order to hit 96 points at season's end, the red snake must get 54 points in the final 43 games (1.256 PPG). Reminder, that the black snake is 1.171 PPG.

The red snake could pass the black line if the Flames win their next 5 games. Those opponents are:

vs. Colorado (12-23-1)
at Vancouver (17-18-3)
vs. Vancouver (17-18-3) Back to back for both teams.
at Winnipeg (17-19-3)
vs. San Jose (23-13-1)

Those are five winnable games in a row. After the tough opening, January's schedule is much nicer to Calgary. They play only three back to back sets (Vancouver above, NJD home/Edmonton away, Toronto/Montreal away). They don't have to leave Canada, as their road games are all northern teams. They have no games the last five days in January (All-Star game), and their first game back is at home. The rest of January's schedule looks like this:

vs. New Jersey (14-16-7) NJD's 2nd night of back to back (Edmonton)
at Edmonton (19-12-7) 2nd night of back to back
vs. Florida (16-14-8) Play in Edmonton the next night
vs. Nashville (16-14-16) Play in Edmonton the next night
vs. Edmonton (19-12-7) EDM's 2nd night of back to back (home)
at Toronto (16-12-7)
at Montreal (22-9-6) 2nd night of back to back
at Ottawa (20-12-4)

In order to be above the black line at the end of January, the Flames need 19 points in the 13 games (1.462 PPG). A record of 9-3-1 would achieve that. That might be tough to do, especially given that the Montreal game is the 2nd game of a back to back. The Ottawa game is the 3rd game in 4 nights, and a road game right before the break. They might mail that one in. If they were to continue on the 1.298 pace required after that 25th game to hit 96 points at year end, they would need 15 points in these 13 games, or a 7-5-1 record.

[activeStick]

snek

[Robbob]

More snake

[Moneyhands23]

5 game win streak for the snnnnaaaakkkkeeee!

[Murph]

I love the snake as much as the next guy, but some perspective...

Getting 54 points in 43 games is going to be a TOUGH slog. It'll take something like a 25-14-4 record.

I think this illustrates it's not going to take 96 points to make the playoffs given we currently occupy a spot.

[Robbob]

I agree that 96 points will not be the cut off. The whole point is by chasing the snake and getting 96 points you are guaranteed a playoff spot as no team that has had 96 has missed the playoffs. Realistically using points per game the cut off will be closer to 90 points.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by Murph

I love the snake as much as the next guy, but some perspective...

Getting 54 points in 43 games is going to be a TOUGH slog. It'll take something like a 25-14-4 record.

I think this illustrates it's not going to take 96 points to make the playoffs given we currently occupy a spot.

Completely agree.

Source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

The way things are consistently projecting 94 points gets 3rd in Pacific. 92 points gets second wildcard and 88 points gets last wildcard spot (where we sit currently). This might increase a little as the race heats up but the wildcard spots are going to be much lower than 96 points.

[CroFlames]

The aim should still be 96 pts or better though.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I agree that 96 points will not be the cut off. The whole point is by chasing the snake and getting 96 points you are guaranteed a playoff spot as no team that has had 96 has missed the playoffs. Realistically using points per game the cut off will be closer to 90 points.

Fair enough. I know Squiggs has got to pick a target and that 96 is a rational one. When I see 54 points in 43 games it's just nice to do a little re-calibration if for no other reason than to minimize my anxiety