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Old 10-24-2016, 10:40 AM   #21
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Isn't that just the same as saying that we are losing because we let more goals than we score?

It kind of goes without saying that teams do poorly when their best players perform poorly and they win when their best players do well.

The real question is why are the Flames top players performing poorly.

Maybe it's on them, or maybe it isn't. Until someone can point to something, it's anyone's guess.
Not to me ...

I think the Flames for the most part last year had a good upper half of a team, but then things fell off the cliff fast.

This year that upper half isn't playing well at all, so the whole game is broken.

When you have three of the worst 5 players in the league in plus minus it isn't just a snake bit sniper keeping you from winning.

Perhaps the degree of change from coach to coach is a huge issue too. The Flames were pointed out as a team that was doing things very different from almost all NHL teams. They didn't care about possession, they blocked shots and relied on the home run pass to counter.

That is a pretty radical game plan to drop and go more modern. Could be that any coach would have had trouble breaking them out of it.

I don't have a personal need to defend Gulutzan but for him to be a terrible coach then you'd have to assume he somehow snowed Treliving and Burke which I find a bit of a stretch after only 6 games.
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Old 10-24-2016, 10:50 AM   #22
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You may indeed be right, or Bingo may indeed be right.

In the end, it is difficult to judge exactly what is going on just after 6 games. If this is continuing to happen after 20 games, I will start to agree more with you than with Bingo. Right now, we just have to give everyone that benefit of the doubt that this is just a 'transition', and though we all would have liked for it to happen much faster, it is just taking its' course.
I agree there needs to be some patience shown, but allotting this group 20 plus games to get their act together is flat out ridiculous. These players are all pros that have played under and learned different systems throughout their careers. Old habbits or playing like you are lost should not take the better part of 2 months plus training camp to break when you're talking multi million dollar players.
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Old 10-24-2016, 10:55 AM   #23
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I agree there needs to be some patience shown, but allotting this group 20 plus games to get their act together is flat out ridiculous. These players are all pros that have played under and learned different systems throughout their careers.

Old habbits should not take the better part of 2 months plus training camp to break when you're talking multi million dollar players
The example from the article quoted that "In the 13 cases below, that moment came somewhere between 12 and 22 games with the median being around the 18-game mark.". So in the 13 cases with NHL teams the median was around 18 games. These were all teams with players who made millions and played under different systems. You could argue 13 cases is a small sample, and they may not have all had a training camp, but the statistics make the case that 20 games isn't ridiculous in this situation.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:00 AM   #24
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Is it possible that the best Flames players just don't have the tools to play the possession driven style that Gulutzan wants? If it were easy, wouldn't every team excel at it. Maybe Hartley figured it out early and picked the style that he thought went best with the group that he had?
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:02 AM   #25
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What the data presented to me says is that we should have expected this rough start, regardless of the talent level of the players, or the qualifications of the coach. It is more of an outlier to get off to an excellent start with a new coach.

And sure, 13 cases isn't a lot, but these are all mostly in recent history, when the parity of the league was high due to a salary cap. It tells me that those teams who have consistency from year to year are at a distinct advantage over teams who made major shifts in playing philosophy from one year to the next. I would say that Gulutzan's system is night and day different from Hartley's system, which is a good thing long term, but comes with major growing pains in the short term.

But of course, Canadian fanbases are extremely short on patience, especially when they've been building for a while. It would have been smart if all Flames fans had tempered expectations to start this season.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:06 AM   #26
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Is it possible that the best Flames players just don't have the tools to play the possession driven style that Gulutzan wants? If it were easy, wouldn't every team excel at it. Maybe Hartley figured it out early and picked the style that he thought went best with the group that he had?
Maybe, but it's just as likely that his style was categorically unfit for the modern NHL, hence why the change despite not having a goalie all year.

I wouldn't suggest the Flames can't play this style. Any quality NHLer can play any style you want, but how about we give the Flames time to adapt to a brand new style? For some players (Monahan, Gaudreau) Hartley was the only NHL coach they've had, and the only system they've had to learn.

And success with possession hockey is about puck management and anticipation of the play. You have to think 2-3 moves ahead like you would in chess, so when players aren't sure where to be on the ice to create support, it looks terrible. As soon as they figure it out and make it second nature they'll be much more effective.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:08 AM   #27
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The example from the article quoted that "In the 13 cases below, that moment came somewhere between 12 and 22 games with the median being around the 18-game mark.". So in the 13 cases with NHL teams the median was around 18 games. These were all teams with players who made millions and played under different systems. You could argue 13 cases is a small sample, and they may not have all had a training camp, but the statistics make the case that 20 games isn't ridiculous in this situation.
I find it ridiculous that according to the stats, you must throw away a quarter of the season and effectively remove your chances of reaching the post season. For me personally, the next half dozen games will tell the tale of the season.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:12 AM   #28
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I find it ridiculous that according to the stats, you must throw away a quarter of the season and effectively remove your chances of reaching the post season. For me personally, the next half dozen games will tell the tale of the season.
How do you figure? There are way more examples in that article of teams making the playoffs than not, and the ones that didn't had absolutely horrible rosters that never had a chance in the first place.

If anything you should bet on the Flames MAKING the playoffs despite a bad start. Provided they actually start to improve soon and aren't too far out of the playoff picture early on.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:14 AM   #29
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I can't defend these defence pairings.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:15 AM   #30
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How do you figure? There are way more examples in that article of teams making the playoffs than not, and the ones that didn't had absolutely horrible rosters that never had a chance in the first place.

If anything you should bet on the Flames MAKING the playoffs despite a bad start. Provided they actually start to improve soon and aren't too far out of the playoff picture early on.
Except a lot of those teams that made the playoffs were basically at .500 during their "struggling times" We pretty much need to win 4 of 5 of our next games to even get to their level of struggling.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:18 AM   #31
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Except a lot of those teams that made the playoffs were basically at .500 during their "struggling times" We pretty much need to win 4 of 5 of our next games to even get to their level of struggling.
Exactly. So chances of this team just making the playoffs is very slim.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:18 AM   #32
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Except a lot of those teams that made the playoffs were basically at .500 during their "struggling times" We basically need to win 4 of 5 of our next games to even get to their level of struggling.
I agree, think we definitely need to get 2 or 3 wins in a row here to get back on track for the long term playoff picture, but there's still no reason to give up on the season already.

For the record, I think we'll end up being a bubble team this year, but probably miss the playoffs. However, we will be trending up in a big way by the end of the year.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:19 AM   #33
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This article just bought 22 games from Gulutzan before I make a decision on whether or not he was the right hire.... Would be really nice if he only needs 7 of the 22 though!
I recall Hartley saying last year that it takes 20 games for a player to learn a new system. Seems consistent with the article.

One just hopes the Flames are not out of the hunt before getting into a new groove.
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Old 10-24-2016, 11:28 AM   #34
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I was always going to give him at least a half season to show what type of team we should expect. Nothing has changed but he's definitely made a few mistakes from not playing the regular roster lines/pairings enough together in preseason, curious handling of the defensive personnel, and horrendous special teams by any measure. He'd probably like a do-over of the first month of the season but that not a big deal as long as he's one of those coaches that's not stubborn and willing to learn from his mistakes. Time will tell.
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Old 10-24-2016, 12:16 PM   #35
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I just hope someone somewhere in the future references the horrible start that the 2016/17 championship Flames team had.
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Old 10-24-2016, 02:30 PM   #36
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I'm willing to hold off on the panic button for another few games - if we're still completely listless then and showing zero signs of improvement, it's time for a big change to shake things up.
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Old 10-24-2016, 03:39 PM   #37
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I agree, think we definitely need to get 2 or 3 wins in a row here to get back on track for the long term playoff picture, but there's still no reason to give up on the season already.

For the record, I think we'll end up being a bubble team this year, but probably miss the playoffs. However, we will be trending up in a big way by the end of the year.
This is pretty much how I'm viewing the year. I was hoping for a hot start but wasn't counting on it. This year isn't about the standings to me; internal team growth will be most important. Hopefully everyone on the Flames can learn, including our new coach. Give that man a break and a chance to learn. I know we all want results right now, but if it were one of us on the job we'd all want a little bit of time to get our feet under us.
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Old 10-24-2016, 04:03 PM   #38
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So, we should have patience? What a crock! I want to see the Flames hoist the Stanley Cup tonight!
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Old 10-24-2016, 04:35 PM   #39
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I find it ridiculous that according to the stats, you must throw away a quarter of the season and effectively remove your chances of reaching the post season. For me personally, the next half dozen games will tell the tale of the season.


You find the evidence ridiculous? Does that mean you don't like the conclusions drawn from the evidence? Or you disagree with them?


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