French Paris Elections

[CaptainCrunch]

Crazy results this weekend as the main stream candidates were swept aside and LePen and Macron move onto the May 7th runoff.

The runoff is expected to be a clash of conservatism vs Liberalism and Isolationism/France First vs Globalization.

Polls show that Macron should win the runoff in a handy fashion.

However with the pretty much destruction of Paris' mainstream parties and two what you would call outsiders moving to the run off it shows to me at least a shifting of balance in terms of national politics where people are looking for alternatives to what they see as societal elite politicians or a political class of people.

[DuffMan]

It's a great time to be an extremist nutcase in politics, in first world countries these days.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's great that Marine's going to lose (although to be fair we've said THAT before), but she shouldn't even be there. I'm a bit concerned that people will pop the champagne if Macron wins and say "see? No problems to solve, nothing to see here", without recognizing what a black mark it is that she's even in the conversation at all.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think she really needed to finish first in this vote to get any kind of momentum to get by Macron.

Granted I don't follow French politics that hard, but simply saying that its a blackmark that she's even in the conversation is white washing the problem there.

Clearly people are angry and sick and tired of business as usual, the reason why she's in the conversation is because the current parties have pretty much failed in terms of messaging and servicing the people.

that's why she's in the conversation, its a backlash vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Macon won because of the moderates abandoning their usual party lines to strategically vote against LePen to block her.

But there's little doubt that the formerly extreme whacko parties are moving from the shadows into the light and gaining a seat at the table.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Clearly people are angry and sick and tired of business as usual, the reason why she's in the conversation is because the current parties have pretty much failed in terms of messaging and servicing the people.

that's why she's in the conversation, its a backlash vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Macon won because of the moderates abandoning their usual party lines to strategically vote against LePen to block her.

This is kind of my point, although I think there's a lot more going on than people being sick and tired of business as usual. What I'm saying is that if (when) Macron wins in more or less exactly the way you're predicting, that may be enough for people to justify ignoring this backlash and pretending it doesn't exist or isn't a real problem.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

It's a great time to be an extremist nutcase in politics, in first world countries these days.

Macron is hardly an extremist nutcase. He may be anti-establishment, but his policies are decidedly centrist.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Macron is hardly an extremist nutcase. He may be anti-establishment, but his policies are decidedly centrist.

I believe he was talking about LePen, and other extremist nutcases.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Macron is hardly an extremist nutcase. He may be anti-establishment, but his policies are decidedly centrist.

Wasn't talking about him.

Mostly thinking of Trump, Brexit, Lepen

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Macron is hardly an extremist nutcase. He may be anti-establishment, but his policies are decidedly centrist.

I read his post as referring to LaPen, not Macron. How odd.

[CliffFletcher]

I assumed he was referring to both, as the OP cites two political outsiders moving on to the run-off.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

It's a great time to be an extremist nutcase in politics, in first world countries these days.

Brexit was an extremist nutcase scenario?

interesting.

[FlamesAddiction]

I wonder if Russia has their fingers in this one too.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It's great that Marine's going to lose (although to be fair we've said THAT before), but she shouldn't even be there. I'm a bit concerned that people will pop the champagne if Macron wins and say "see? No problems to solve, nothing to see here", without recognizing what a black mark it is that she's even in the conversation at all.

I am glad that she is going to lose, but also very happy that she has made it this far. The problems affecting France - demographics, new economy, etc... - are signs of the times for every Western democracy. They are just the furthest along.

[ah123]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I wonder if Russia has their fingers in this one too.

Seems like it

French voters have been deluged with fake news stories on their social media feeds ahead of the country's presidential election, many from sources "exposed to Russian influence", new research has found.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7696506.html

[peter12]

Originally Posted by ah123

Seems like it



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7696506.html

People have to stop blaming nefarious exogenous influences for these elections.

There are incredibly deep-running rifts within Western societies as the end result of post-capitalist policies running from the late 1970s.

https://www.city-journal.org/html/fr...art-15125.html

[killer_carlson]

no Peter12, that isn't it.

It's much easier to blame all center, right of center, and right wing success on the premise that everyone else is too dumb to recognize their own problems. Only the regressive left can save us all.


Sometimes I wonder if there were any people listening in the post-Clinton loss discussions. For a great deal many people, the status quo doesn't work and the risks associated with the status quo are not as high (for many voters) as the certainty that comes with remaining stuck in their current plight.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by peter12

People have to stop blaming nefarious exogenous influences for these elections.

There are incredibly deep-running rifts within Western societies as the end result of post-capitalist policies running from the late 1970s.

https://www.city-journal.org/html/fr...art-15125.html

I agree that it would be a shame if the plight of the working class were ignored to focus on the Russian story.

I don't think anyone has done that, however. That Russia is attempting to influence democratic institutions in the US and elsewhere is a massively important story.

That they are taking advantage of some class divisions and conflict in western societies is also notable and important.

I believe that inequality is the defining issue of today more than any other issue, so I definitely don't disagree.

As for blaming the "regressive left" as above? Just hogwash.

[peter12]

They aren't trying to influence democratic institutions, but have an effect on the margin of discrediting them. Never mind that our citizenry is doing a fair enough job of that on its own.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by peter12

They aren't trying to influence democratic institutions, but have an effect on the margin of discrediting them. Never mind that our citizenry is doing a fair enough job of that on its own.

Point taken - yes, undermining, destroying - however you want to put it.

[peter12]

But as I said, it is incredibly marginal, and our response is probably the only variable that matters.