2023/24 Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[KelVarnsen]

Imagine campaigning for the Jays to sign Bauer and campaigning for Jays to trade Manoah at the same time.

[Roof-Daddy]

Welp, didn't take the orioles long to start adding pitching after the news of the sale.

Snell, Bauer, Montgomery still out there too.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

Atkins sucks at trades. Even with Manoah’s value being low I don’t trust Atkins in trading him.

He has struggled thats for sure, I just don't get the Jays off season plan at all.

With the AL east, Jays in my view are quickly falling down the list in terms of being a contender.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

Imagine campaigning for the Jays to sign Bauer and campaigning for Jays to trade Manoah at the same time.

Imagine campaigning for a more sure chance at a bounce back from a proven commodity while extracting value through a trade for a position of need. Hard to fathom the logic.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by browna

Manoah's value will never be lower. My guess is the trade values were low by teams bargain hunting.

A full reset was the only way, the way they attempted to get him back on track last year was half measures at best. The Jays showed patience and probably more patience than Manoah wanted, so were looking out for the best for him.

Slightly disagree. I’m sure his value was lower this year because of the strong pitching free agent market, but there’s still some hope (as some point out here they’re hoping for a bounce back). As such some see last year as an anomaly. If he has another down year, his value will be next to nothing. I think if him as Aaron Sanchez at this point. Looked spectacular and had ton of upside but just dropped off. It’s a gamble, but another season of what we seen and he’s going to be let go or sold for pennies.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Imagine campaigning for a more sure chance at a bounce back from a proven commodity while extracting value through a trade for a position of need. Hard to fathom the logic.

I am talking more about how you dislike Manoah because of his attitude but want Bauer despite his attitude.

Yes Manoah sucked last year and Bauer has a good track record of pitching but Bauer and all the baggage he brings isn't worth it.

[bizaro86]

Manoah is clearly a risk. If he figures it out again he's a cost controlled top-of-the-rotation starter, which is arguably the most valuable thing a team can have. But if last year is more of a "past-is-prologue" situation, then getting something for him now is the obvious asset management choice. It seems hard (to me) to predict which is would be, and if I was the GM I'd certainly be shopping him to see what offers were out there, but would rather keep him than take a lowball.

It's a tough position as a GM because if you guess wrong on where he ends up you're going to end up looking bad, but predicting the future is hard.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Manoah is clearly a risk. If he figures it out again he's a cost controlled top-of-the-rotation starter, which is arguably the most valuable thing a team can have. But if last year is more of a "past-is-prologue" situation, then getting something for him now is the obvious asset management choice. It seems hard (to me) to predict which is would be, and if I was the GM I'd certainly be shopping him to see what offers were out there, but would rather keep him than take a lowball.

It's a tough position as a GM because if you guess wrong on where he ends up you're going to end up looking bad, but predicting the future is hard.

Agreed. I'm sure they did their general due diligence when it comes to what his value was out there and it didn't meet their expectations to make it worth their while. And it is hard to predict these things especially because teams can't work with players in the off-season (as far as I know), so it's hard to gauge where he is and what his stuff looks like.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

I am talking more about how you dislike Manoah because of his attitude but want Bauer despite his attitude.

Yes Manoah sucked last year and Bauer has a good track record of pitching but Bauer and all the baggage he brings isn't worth it.

I don't dislike Manoah because of his attitude from the perspective of his play. I think it's going to hurt him in checking his ego and buying into what the team wants him to do. He has shown this last year when he just wanted to sit the rest of the year out without much communication as to why, and why the organization was wrong to have him work through it. Bauer was found not guilty and further provided evidence that the person who accused him was making it up explicitly. Further if you're going to play the card his teammates hated him, look up Betts providing a ringing endorsement of him. I just care who will be good to their teammates and themselves and am not on some witchhunt for what any of these bums do in their off-season or private life. I think most of them are shady and that's the industry they're in (and yes, I don't care if I'm painting athletes with that broad brush). I don't hold them to a higher standard in any way. They're entertaining us and that's all as far as I'm concerned. They don't owe me anything more.

[mrkajz44]

Fangraph's postseason odds have been released and Jays are 48% to make the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

The accompanying article discusses how the AL East is a buzzsaw again...

My goodness, this division is good. Our model simulates the actual schedule, but to do that, we first forecast team strengths in a vacuum, and the AL East has four of the top 10 teams in baseball, and four of the top six teams in the American League. If we played in a weird counterfactual world where instead of facing each other, every team played a hypothetical .500 team 162 times, our model projects that the AL East would outscore their opponents by a combined 218 runs. The second-best division in baseball is the NL East… at 44 runs.

We have the Jays as the seventh-best team in baseball, but think they’ll win the 12th-most games.

Feels like the most likely scenario is trying to get 3rd in the division and grab one of the last wildcard spots. I usually don't mind when a pretty good team stands pat despite poor luck in the playoffs, but with the AL East looking much more difficult this year it does feel like the Jays have been left behind a bit.

[calculoso]

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2840040

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beat his team in his arbitration hearing, a source told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Guerrero's 2024 salary of $19.9 million is the highest ever awarded by a panel. He would have set that record even if he lost the hearing, according to Davidi.

[howard_the_duck]

Why the Jays squabbled over $1M is beyond me.

[bizaro86]

.264 with 22 HR is worth $20MM in arb now as a 1B. Huh.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Why the Jays squabbled over $1M is beyond me.

I can understand it to some degree. They could be setting a hard tone with him that he has to perform as they don't see him as a franchise cornerstone anymore. And frankly I'm unsure he is as well. Definitely he was going through a tough time last year and maybe the year before, but some of the pitches he was swinging at had no enthusiasm or thought. It was an odd sight from someone who had some of the best eyes in the game early on. So this may be the catalyst that wakes him up.


On the other hand, Dominican players really look up to the Blue Jays, and they just may be pissing him off if he does wake up this year. Is it worth the gamble, perhaps. Something has to be lit under him, and I hope it doesn't deject him more.

[flamingred89]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

.264 with 22 HR is worth $20MM in arb now as a 1B. Huh.

Ha. Right?!

God damn I love me some Vladdy. More than I should. But he really needs to show up this year.

[browna]

It does seem petty, if the difference was $5M that's one thing but 5%?

While the Jays clearly wanted to draw a line a bit with him and future expectations etc, and for optics not just appear to roll over, they could've set their price as they did, had him set his, and then both sides meet in the middle before the hearing (though not familiar with MLB arbitration process as to if that's an option).

[calculoso]

The Toronto Blue Jays signed right-hander Yariel Rodríguez to a five-year, $32-million contract, the team announced Friday.

It was previously reported as a four-year deal in January prior to Rodríguez completing his physical.

More to come.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2841336

[Roof-Daddy]

Jorge Soler to the Giants on a 3 year deal.

[bluejays]

Rumours Jays are still in on Bellinger. Hopefully a sign he’s getting off his eight year stance.

[Roof-Daddy]

Bellinger on a shorter term deal, like 5 years might not be so bad.